[mclem]

Last I read it was about 600K, it would need a 27% rise its not astronomical considering the age of the console.

You're not getting that from this, are you? :
http://t.co/Cx3sZSrF

The discussion about that came to the conclusion that it wasn't taking into account that the month in question still had the post-launch highs; we've seen in April's NPDs that the month-by-month figure is significantly lower than that.

(The 600k in that article represents the sales in March - so the aftermath of the two launches in the west, plus Japan's sales for that month - and multiplied by three to reflect a quarter's sales. That's where that 1.8M came from, which I suspect is your source for your 1.8M, and that's why I found the methodology highly questionable)

(I note that the author responded to my questioning tweets along those lines, I can't actually read the article from here - wonder if he's reflected that in an update)

Edit: Author's response to my tweets:

Guess so. Therefore, extrapolating that 600,000 for every month of the year to only make ~7 million sales is unrealistic...

Or is it? If it is, how on earth will Sony reach 10 million Vita sales?

[OmegaZero]

Why, Vita?
Why are you dying?

I've fed you, played with you every day, taken you on walks, and even made sure you were healthy and clean every night.

Is it me? Is there something I'm doing that just isn't enough?
Tell me so I can make things right.

[Schobeleth]

To you maybe, but around my campus, a lot of people have a handheld gaming device. From DSi, PSP to 3DS and PSV (though very few has the PSV). Sadly, everyone seems to have the Zelda 3ds but me :(.

I agree it depends on the crowd/area, some people only play on handhelds. I used to be predominantly handheld oriented (entering the current gen) but switched mostly to home consoles and PC. Now I'm slowly moving somewhere in the middle between my Vita and my PS3/PC. Also where the hell is your avatar from?!

[SuperSonic1305]

Do people buy hardware just in the hope that games will come by the truckloads every week? For fuck sakes i've never seen something so stupid as saying you are going to sell something 3 months after it comes out.

[mangaroo]

Thanks for the education in sales guys. Guess it's just for the shareholders and developers. But still I wouldn't be worried. Slow and steady. I'm not saying it will do better than the DS or anything but it definitely has potential and being in the early stages - no where near death hah.

[H_Prestige]

Price cut won't help. Neither will "compelling" software, since the type of software the system is geared towards already exists on ps3 and is better there. Sony is trying to convince ps3 owners to buy a lesser version of something they already have simply because it's portable. And it does fuck all besides play Vita games a few psp games, so you can't even justify a purchase at a high price and without the games like you could with the ps3, which at least had blu ray and was fully BC.

Vita's high end capabilities also turn off developers, because the resources required to make a quality Vita game are similar to that required for a ps3 game, so why not just make a ps3 game and target a much bigger audience?

[jigglywiggly]

We need a Vita chalkboard.

I'll start.

[Suzzopher]

I'll start.

You and your optimism.

[Poyunch]

Price cut won't help. Neither will "compelling" software, since the type of software the system is geared towards already exists on ps3 and is better there. Sony is trying to convince ps3 owners to buy a lesser version of something they already have simply because it's portable.

Maybe but maybe not. Sony just needs to try and get exclusives for the platform. Games like CoD or Uncharted are pretty stupid on the Vita because there are and will be better versions on the PS3.

But there are already people complaining about wanting Soul Sacrifice on the PS3 but it's going to stay on the Vita. If they keep making games that people want for the PS3 but stay strong enough to keep them exclusive on the Vita then people will eventually have enough reason to buy a Vita.

[Theonik]

I'll start.

Konami to save the Vita confirmed

[Phoenician_Viking]

Didn't world at war wii have its own dedicated TV ads in America (I'm pretty sure I heard that in the sales threads back then)

You don't sell 10m vitas in a year full stop

They'll be lucky with 2 million the way things are going (that's being generous with the holiday bump)

No it was 16 million including PSP, even more hilarious

Yes but they still won't have got them to actually work

I thought the general consensus was that soul sacrifice seems to be pretty niche

And without big sales and high production volumes costs won't drop as quickly

Considering the memory card sales are probably the only part of the vita "business" that makes any money there's no chance

Niche don't sell 10 million systems

Not sure if serious

Really in what way did they get it right?

There hasn't been a brain training game in like 5 years, yes the markets been flooded with clones and I don't think it'll reach the heights of the first 2 I still think its good for a couple of million plus worldwide

I'd hardly call a second stick, huge size and expensive screen the necessary hardware improvements

Wow, you sure are working overtime.

[mangaroo]

Price cut won't help. Neither will "compelling" software, since the type of software the system is geared towards already exists on ps3 and is better there. Sony is trying to convince ps3 owners to buy a lesser version of something they already have simply because it's portable. Vita's high end capabilities also turn off developers, because the resources required to make a quality Vita game are similar to that required for a ps3 game, so why not just make a ps3 game and target a much bigger audience?

Portability really is quite luxurious, and makes me more willing to accept the sacrifices. So far a month or two has passed and I've not even turned on the PC. Skyrim, Deus-ex, Batman SR3, LA Noire..all just sitting there while I pick up and play wipeout for 15 mins and put it back down.
Also the very fact that there aren't many titles out on the vita currently make people choosing your product even more likely as well.

[OldJadedGamer]

It could get a price cut at E3. The PS3 got a price cut at the first E3 after its launch.

[OmegaZero]

I'll start.

You don't have to be so positive. It's okay to set your expectations to a more realistic level.

[saichi]

I'm sure there's more in store for us come E3. WiFi Vita + 4GB memory card @ $179.99 would move.

MSRP $249 Wifi with no memory to WiFi Vita + 4GB memory card @ $179.99? Don't see it happening.

This related article is pretty fair.

[H_Prestige]

Maybe but maybe not. Sony just needs to try and get exclusives for the platform. Games like CoD or Uncharted are pretty stupid on the Vita because there are and will be better versions on the PS3. But there are already people complaining about wanting Soul Sacrifice on the PS3 but it's going to stay on the Vita. If they keep making games that people want for the PS3 but stay strong enough to keep them exclusive on the Vita then people will eventually have enough reason to buy a Vita.

This is terrible marketing. If your customers clearly don't like portables, then why make a portable and force them to buy it? Just put those resources into making those games on the system they want.

[Sho_Nuff82]

You're not getting that from this, are you? : http://t.co/Cx3sZSrF The discussion about that came to the conclusion that it wasn't taking into account that the month in question still had the post-launch highs; we've seen in April's NPDs that the month-by-month figure is significantly lower than that. (The 600k in that article represents the sales in March - so the aftermath of the two launches in the west, plus Japan's sales for that month - and multiplied by three to reflect a quarter's sales. That's where that 1.8M came from, which I suspect is your source for your 1.8M, and that's why I found the methodology highly questionable) (I note that the author responded to my questioning tweets along those lines, I can't actually read the article from here - wonder if he's reflected that in an update) Edit: Author's response to my tweets:

I don't see how any respectable journalist would multiply launch month sales x12 to get a forecast of full year sales.

[OldJadedGamer]

MSRP $249 Wifi with no memory to WiFi Vita + 4GB memory card @ $179.99? Don't see it happening. This related article is pretty fair.

$199, 4gig memory, and code for a downloadable game and this would move. Not having memory built in is a design flaw so they should just start packing that in first even before games or the price drop.

[Tarin02543]

In my perception only one game has been released after launch and that is MK.

Am I horribly wrong or is that really the case?

[Father_Brain]

In my perception only one game has been released after launch and that is MK. Am I horribly wrong or is that really the case?

Wrong (Unit 13, MLB, Disgaea 3). Not as wrong as you should be, though - the schedule has been pretty sparse.

[FoneBone]

Thanks for the education in sales guys. Guess it's just for the shareholders and developers. But still I wouldn't be worried. Slow and steady. I'm not saying it will do better than the DS or anything but it definitely has potential and being in the early stages - no where near death hah.

"Slow and steady" doesn't keep third parties or retailers on board.

[Burai]

Thanks for the education in sales guys. Guess it's just for the shareholders and developers. But still I wouldn't be worried. Slow and steady. I'm not saying it will do better than the DS or anything but it definitely has potential and being in the early stages - no where near death hah.

Slow and steadily downwards?

[SmokyDave]

Wrong (Unit 13, MLB, Disgaea 3). Not as wrong as you should be, though - the schedule has been pretty sparse.

It feels worse to me because Unit 13 was so early it might as well have been a launch game, MLB didn't come out in the UK and Disgaea 3 came out more or less at the same time as MK. It really feels like 'Launch -> Fuck All -> Mortal Kombat -> Fuck All'.

They needed PSone compatibility at launch and the PS Suite should've been up & running. At the very least some iOS ports (like the recent N.O.V.A 3) could've bulked up the schedule a bit.

[Wolfe]

I use mine every day. Although I take the system to work with me for Streetpass purposes, I never play the system outside of the home. It's just my go to game system at the moment regardless of where I am.

So it's your go to system regardless of where you are, unless that someplace happens to be outside of the house?

[saichi]

Do people buy hardware just in the hope that games will come by the truckloads every week? For fuck sakes i've never seen something so stupid as saying you are going to sell something 3 months after it comes out.

I still remember my friend bought PSP at launch for Gran Turismo... I laughed at him every year until the game was finally released.

Then I laughed at him again when the game didn't live up to his expectation. :)

[Andrex]

I still remember my friend bought PSP at launch for Gran Turismo... I laughed at him every year until the game was finally released. Then I laughed at him again when the game didn't live up to his expectation. :)

With friends like you...

[diffusionx]

It barely missed its revised forecast. It still sold almost 14 million That's some niche.

The revised forecast, the one they missed, was revised down.

14 million units last year is a lot. But I will also say this - Apple sold 52 million iOS devices last quarter. And all those devices are potential game machines. And there are a lot of games being sold for them.

That's why people say dedicated handheld systems are a niche. Because they are. It might be a sizable niche, but it's still a niche. And I don't see rosy growth prospects in the future. Does anyone think the 3DS will outsell the DS?

[jrDev]

They projected 6 million for the PS3 in its first year and didn't even hit half that number. I'm sure it is a similar situation where they overestimated demand.

Eeek, I remembered it was bad but not that BAD... O_o

There HAS to be a price drop so people on the fence should continue their wait-n-see...

[Jokeropia]

14 million units last year is a lot. But I will also say this - Apple sold 52 million iOS devices last quarter. And all those devices are potential game machines. And there are a lot of games being sold for them.

Actual money being spent on iOS games is significantly less than in the dedicated handheld market, however.

[Bending_Unit_22]

The revised forecast, the one they missed, was revised down. 14 million units last year is a lot. But I will also say this - Apple sold 52 million iOS devices last quarter. And all those devices are potential game machines. And there are a lot of games being sold for them. That's why people say dedicated handheld systems are a niche. Because they are. It might be a sizable niche, but it's still a niche. And I don't see rosy growth prospects in the future. Does anyone think the 3DS will outsell the DS?

I don't think anyone outside of a Nintendo boardroom (if even there) or the most fevered Nintendo fanboy forums thought that had any chance of happening. Whether or not handhelds are "niche" seems to be a pointless semantic argument to me. Dedicated handhelds will sell 100-125 million units over 5 years. No that doesn't compare to cell phones, but were not talking vinyl record players here (or graphic calculator mobile gaming to keep it gaming related).

Anyhow, this is turning out pretty much like I expected prior to this gen of handhelds, it's a retrenchment phase. 20-25 million handhelds a year is probably about the natural market size, the DS/PSP blew it up to 40 million which was never sustainable (even while they were alive). The key question I think is whether mobile gaming can sustain 2 dedicated handhelds, which are both overpriced for their role, and smartphones. It can definitely support 1 dedicated handheld and smartphones but which one? That makes the Vita's issues right now a bit more threatening than I think they would be in the past.

Actual money being spent on iOS games is significantly less than in the dedicated handheld market, however.

Very true, but I would think the bigger problem is time being spent on iOS games versus handhelds, or amount of money not being spent on dedicated handhelds.

[diffusionx]

Actual money being spent on iOS games is significantly less than in the dedicated handheld market, however.

For now - do you think that will still be the case in, say, five years? Ultimately people are spending $1-$5 and getting tons of hours. Versus spending $40 and getting tons of hours. Of course it's more money. But it also is surely convincing people they don't need to drop the cash on a handheld machine.

I actually think the 3DS will be safe. Worst case scenario it sells to kids who want Pokemon. It's like Disney. They will always sell Cinderella when the time comes.

Vita though? No.

[ProfessorMoran]

They are not. Its just Sony is screwing up with Vita like they did with the PS3 in its early stages. 3DS is selling as good as one could hoped for.

The PS3 was priced ridiculously high, the Vita is not, even though a price cut can definitely help.

[jman2050]

For now - do you think that will still be the case in, say, five years?

I think the projected growth of the mobile gaming market is hilariously optimistic in a way that'll make several investors lose lots and lots of money. So no, not really.

[larvi]

I think Sony opening up the device to homebrew apps would help spur sales as much as a price drop. The ability to run DosBox and other emus for old games I own in addition to a way to play the PSP games I already own would go a long way to making the Vita more attractive to me. In fact I just recently bought an older motorola droid and nokia 810 just for the ability to play around with DosBox and other homebrew on these platforms. Otherwise I will just wait until the Vita library is compelling enough to me to justify the purchase which it is far from at this point.

[SkyMasterson]

I question how many people are frequently using their 3DS. I barely touch mine. It just seems like the idea of a gaming device you take out the house with you is as dead as the Dreamcast. People may have bought their 3DS thn realised their mistake. I bought a Vita and sold it in a week.

Never understood people who buy something and then decides to sell it off a week or two later. Weak-minded I guess.

I can understand getting into the hype but at least give it a chance. It's one thing if you buy a game and have it for a week or two and you're like "eh this isn't for me", but a console/handheld!?

Granted I knew the PS Vita would drop like a rock in a few months :)

[Pazuzu9]

I still remember my friend bought PSP at launch for Gran Turismo... I laughed at him every year until the game was finally released. Then I laughed at him again when the game didn't live up to his expectation. :)

I also bought my PSP for GT. It met my expectations, and is the only PSP game I still play regularly. I will buy a Vita for a new GT also.

[kuroshiki]

Vita is not overpriced. Whoever say otherwise doesn't know what he/she is talking about.

Give me ONE device in the market right now that has Vita's horsepower, display, RAM capacity and costs $249. That's right. There are NONE.

Now to drop the price to truly enter the mass market friendly is totally different issue. My bet is sony will do that at e3, expecting $199, with some extra game for early adopters.

[nextgeneration]

Vita is not overpriced. Whoever say otherwise doesn't know what he/she is talking about. Give me ONE device in the market right now that has Vita's horsepower, display, RAM capacity and costs $249. That's right. There are NONE. Now to drop the price to truly enter the mass market friendly is totally different issue. My bet is sony will do that at e3, expecting $199, with some extra game for early adopters.

It may not be overpriced, but the problem is that most consumers don't want to pay that much for a dedicated handheld these days, regardless of how good it is.

[Coolwhip]

I wouldn't even buy one at €100,- The games are too expensive for handheld games, same with 3DS.

[FoneBone]

Vita is not overpriced. Whoever say otherwise doesn't know what he/she is talking about. .

Nobody calling it "overpriced" is referring to specs or manufacturing costs. It's about demand - whether it's worth it to the public for what it offers.

[EvilDick34]

Dedicated portable consoles are niche

I played twos games yesterday on my 3DS and my play time was well over 4 hours and maybe 5 total and that was just yesterday and two games.

[ShinUltramanJ]

Actual money being spent on iOS games is significantly less than in the dedicated handheld market, however.

Doesn't take away from the fact that more people are spending their TIME with their iOS device over dedicated gaming platforms.

It's not just about playing games anymore.

[DasRaven]

Offer me a $400 bundle containing:
*PS3 slim
*Vita WiFi
*8GB memcard
*2x Cross-play capable game (or 1 really good one)
and i'll bite.

E3 would be a perfect time.

[jman2050]

Doesn't take away from the fact that more people are spending their TIME with their iOS device over dedicated gaming platforms. It's not just about playing games anymore.

This is the biggest issue right here. Ultimately, it's not a matter of games at all.

[dreamer3kx]

Sony needs to make all the great psn titles compatible with Vita and available to purchase, come on Sony, what the frack are you doing over there?

[BengaBenga]

Vita is not overpriced. Whoever say otherwise doesn't know what he/she is talking about. Give me ONE device in the market right now that has Vita's horsepower, display, RAM capacity and costs $249. That's right. There are NONE. Now to drop the price to truly enter the mass market friendly is totally different issue. My bet is sony will do that at e3, expecting $199, with some extra game for early adopters.

I think it's actually the market that decides whether something is overpriced. I personally think the iPhone is overpriced, but the market definitely proves me wrong.

[krae_man]

Futureshop in Canada is giving away 1000 $50 off Vita codes through their viral Marketing site Tsilon.ca that expire on May 25th. A $50 price cut at E3 is pretty much a sure thing at this point.

[Haethos]

Better get that "founder's club" junk that 3DS owners got with the price cut. I bought a Vita based on the experience with the Gravity Rush demo (and anticipating P4G) with a 32gb card and the only thing I've played on it so far are a few PSP games.

[Apeopleman]

Lower the price and I'll bite.

Same here, yo

[jmdajr]

50 dollars off..then I can justify the memory card cost.