[teruterubozu]

Let's rage against baby boomers while a 28-yr old tycoon teabags all of our faces.

[bangladesh]

Uh, yes it is. Also, Facebook doesn't place random people on your feed so that you have to read their posts. If you have annoying friends then that sounds like a personal problem.

I've got a realistic circle of friends and not 923.

[Steelrain]

I've got a realistic circle of friends and not 923.

Ok? Apparently they are annoying if you are complaining about them shitting up your facebook.

[effingvic]

facebook is too valuable for advertisers to go away completely. then theres also the apps within facebook as well as the login and commenting thing as well.

facebook is here to stay, though its extremely over valued. very very very over valued.

I never got the fascination with facebook. Always looked like a flaunting device to me. And only attractive females would succeed while everyone else are miserable failed attention fisherman. And also everyone on facebook think they're deep philosophers with all their nonsense quotes. It's a good way to keep in touch! No it's not, MSN, email and phone are.

lmao, my god can you sound any more miserable?

[Munin]

GAF in 2003: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2004: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2005: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2006: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2007: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2008: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2009: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2010: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2011: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year
GAF in 2012: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year

[Juancho9]

GAF in 2003: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2004: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2005: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2006: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2007: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2008: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2009: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2010: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2011: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2012: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year

Well, that's one way to dumb down the discussion.

[sans_pants]

not a chance facebook goes away within a decade. it would take some wholly new service that was way better. the amount of money and marketing it would take is too massive. facebook was pretty much word of mouth and spread to nearly a billion people, cultural phenomenons like that don't happen very often

i expect facebook to spend enough on research to stay on the cutting edge of social networking, but who knows what they will decide to do

[bangladesh]

Ok? Apparently they are annoying if you are complaining about them shitting up your facebook.

No, you're not getting it. I communicate with my friends through better means. Skype, MSN, phones. Posting on someones personal wall always seemed ridiculous to me. Entire conversations. on a wall? you have to keep refreshing with no privacy? Ridiculous.

[BigDug13]

Honestly I think it'll be the IPO itself that does Facebook in, rather than any social trepidation or shift in interests. Facebook, as it is, is profitable, but the modern investor environment requires more profitability all the time. That will inevitably lead to more advertising and more general costs of usage, as well as just mucking about with the whole thing, all of which can induce a drop in users. They were always prone to the probability of a change being capitalized upon by someone else, resulting in mass exodus, but as a private company they could at least mitigate that by not touching things until they're actually ready. Once you have shareholders breathing down your neck that pressure and danger goes up considerably. At the very least, the IPO could be Zuck's ticket out, and that could signal the beginning of an end when the new leadership comes in and start ruining everything by being Not Zuck.

He's not going anywhere. He's set it up so that no matter how many shares sell, he will still own greater than 50% of the company and will therefore hold control of its direction.

[btkadams]

No, you're not getting it. I communicate with my friends through better means. Skype, MSN, phones. Posting on someones personal wall always seemed ridiculous to me. Entire conversations. on a wall? you have to keep refreshing with no privacy? Ridiculous.

huh? you send private messages to each other to have conversations. wall posts are for one-off things.

[bangladesh]

huh? you send private messages to each other to have conversations. wall posts are for one-off things.

Miles more convenient with Skype.

[BocoDragon]

It already isn't a fad. It's been hot for years.

That doesn't mean we won't move onto something else someday.

[sans_pants]

No, you're not getting it. I communicate with my friends through better means. Skype, MSN, phones. Posting on someones personal wall always seemed ridiculous to me. Entire conversations. on a wall? you have to keep refreshing with no privacy? Ridiculous.

user error

[samus i am]

It's a fad like Blockbuster video is a fad (just the first company that popped into my head). They are providing a service that people like to use so the demand is high. Things will change and the public will want something different, but that won't be for a long time. When that does happen they will slowly fade away in the same fashion as blockbuster.

[ascii42]

It already isn't a fad. It's been hot for years. That doesn't mean we won't move onto something else someday.

Yeah, not everything that eventually goes on to be replaced is a fad.

[JABEE]

GAF in 2003: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2004: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2005: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2006: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2007: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2008: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2009: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2010: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2011: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year GAF in 2012: Facebook is a fad, nobody will talk about it next year

Who said this? Please quote the posts that said this. I'm waiting.

[ascii42]

Who said this? Please quote the posts that said this. I'm waiting.

I'm especially interested in the ones from 2003, since Facebook didn't launch until 2004.

[btkadams]

Miles more convenient with Skype.

but skype doesn't have all of the other features of facebook. you then have one less place to go. you can browse profiles, musician pages, group pages, your favourite store's current sales feed, etc, all while keeping the conversation open in the page in facebook chat. how is skype more convenient? facebook chat is there on every facebook page. you don't have to have a program open or anything.

[pj]

facebook is too valuable for advertisers to go away completely. then theres also the apps within facebook as well as the login and commenting thing as well. facebook is here to stay, though its extremely over valued. very very very over valued.

Not that one makes a trend, but:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmul...llion-account/

I don't see the value in putting paid ads on facebook. Maintaining official facebook pages, sure, but who in the world would ever click a facebook ad for the chevy aveo or teeth whitening?

[FoneBone]

MySpace comparisons are like saying that Google will suffer the same fate as AltaVista... in 2006. It's beyond clueless.

[Al-ibn Kermit]

and that sis why u're not an investor

Just a third of those surveyed think the company's expected value is appropriate, while 50 percent say it is too high. Those who invest in the stock market are more likely to see shares as overvalued, 58 percent said so. About 3 in 10 investors say the expected value of shares is fair.

I don't think most investors could tell you how much Facebook is worth, much less how it became so successful.

[MikeOfTheLivingDead]

I don't think most investors could tell you how much Facebook is worth, much less how it became so successful.

They could guess scientifically. The company revenue is just over a billion a year, their growth has slowed over the last two years significantly, and their operating costs have doubled in the last year. Should be enough to know a 109 billion dollar IPO is way over valued.

[bangladesh]

but skype doesn't have all of the other features of facebook. you then have one less place to go. you can browse profiles, musician pages, group pages, your favourite store's current sales feed, etc, all while keeping the conversation open in the page in facebook chat. how is skype more convenient? facebook chat is there on every facebook page. you don't have to have a program open or anything.

Computers are meant to run programs and Skype and MSN are light. No big deal. It's got a much nicer interface as well as superior audio/video. Facebook is more a thing for 90+ friends to post trivial comments and flaunt photos.

[nVidiot_Whore]

Not that one makes a trend, but: http://www.forbes.com/sites/joannmul...llion-account/ I don't see the value in putting paid ads on facebook. Maintaining official facebook pages, sure, but who in the world would ever click a facebook ad for the chevy aveo or teeth whitening?

Why would Facebook differ from any other web site when it comes to ads and user behavior?

Also, ads don't have to be clicked to be valuable to an advertiser.

[btkadams]

Computers are meant to run programs and Skype and MSN are light. No big deal. It's got a much nicer interface as well as superior audio/video. Facebook is more a thing for 90+ friends to post trivial comments and flaunt photos.

doesn't facebook chat use skype for audio/video? is the quality really that different?

[Duane Cunningham]

I will say that the shitty mobile apps will hurt FB more in the long run than they probably realize. I feel myself drifting away more than I would if I could check it more, but the iOS app is so bad it's a chore to use.

[bangladesh]

doesn't facebook chat use skype for audio/video? is the quality really that different?

Hellll yeah dude. As well as the interface. Skype is solid.

[CrocMother]

These polls are such BS and I hope one day we do away with them.

[Magnus]

Facebook became part of our lives in a more permanent, immutable kind of way, about 3-4 years ago. It stuck. It's in.

[OpinionatedCyborg]

Facebook became part of our lives in a more permanent, immutable kind of way, about 3-4 years ago. It stuck. It's in.

Absolutely. It brought together IM, video, email, and social networking to become what is often the single destination for people online. It extends far beyond any other social network, and is strongly entrenched in our daily lives. It may not last forever, but I don't think it will fall out of favour unless it completely misses the boat on a new communication tool or unless it's hit by a series of scandals.

[Copernicus]

GM thinks so too

ruh roh

[ElectricBlue187]

I never got the fascination with facebook. Always looked like a flaunting device to me. And only attractive females would succeed while everyone else are miserable failed attention fisherman. And also everyone on facebook think they're deep philosophers with all their nonsense quotes. It's a good way to keep in touch! No it's not, MSN, email and phone are.

Back in my day we didn't have all these fancy rich internet applications if we wanted to call someone we had to call their house with a corded phone and you had to know their phone number! If you didn't know the number you had to look through a massive goddamn phone book to find their parents!

[Kai Dracon]

Social networking isn't going anywhere, but what will really end all these platforms in the future is just that: that they're platforms locked inside boxes.

It seems the direction things are going is 'liberating' the internet from the computer monitor and home box. The pocket super computer, aka smartphone, is like phase 1, babby steps for that.

After that, comes stuff like augmented reality and "smart everything". All the social stuff will no longer be an alternative to so-called real life, but seamlessly integrated into real life. (This is the 'augmented' part of augmented reality.)

Having a specific facebook vanity page will, to a degree, seem as pointless has having a personal website in that late 1990's style. Ironically, twitter might be a prototype application that merely got started in the old style computer box, but shows the way towards info streams rather than public diary postings on the internet.

[CTE]

An 87 to 108 billion dollar fad.

[jtb]

Facebook, unlike Myspace, has been evolving incredibly quickly. It's now more a social platform than a social network, and that's going to entrench itself in the same way Google and Microsoft have entrenched themselves as web and software titans, respectively. We've already seen Google try to replicate (and fail) multiple times to eat into Facebook's share. That alone should show that it's hardly as easy or as simple to dislodge Facebook as it was to replace Myspace.

[GusBus]

I think it's here to stay for quite some time. Social networking is a relatively recent invention that only really gained traction in the past five or so years. How on earth can we predict trends on something with so little data? I don't think MySpace is a fair comparison; it was a totally different era of the internet and they never had anywhere near the amount of users FB has. Comparing it to Coke or the Wii is just plain ridiculous as they are totally different products that actually REQUIRE marketing, whereas FB has become ubiquitous and a household name without.

[ascii42]

GM thinks so too ruh roh

GM spent $10 million on ads, but $30 million on...other Facebook related activities?

[Copernicus]

GM spent $10 million on ads, but $30 million on...other Facebook related activities?

Staff for social engagement I suppose, the part Facebook doesn't directly make money on from companies.

[dreamcastmaster]

I don't have a Facebook account, and I'm not "Trying to be different" I looked at it and it did not interest me. I can email my friends and chat on forums and that suits me fine. My life is no better or worse because of a lack of Facebook although Facebook integration into other software I use is a little annoying (like me on Facebook, tell Facebook about this app).

Facebook wont be around forever because somebody will make a better facebook and at the start all the "cool kids" will migrate to it just to be different. I mean really do you want to be on the same social media as your parents and old people?

[Kosmo]

I think it's here to stay for quite some time. Social networking is a relatively recent invention that only really gained traction in the past five or so years. How on earth can we predict trends on something with so little data? I don't think MySpace is a fair comparison; it was a totally different era of the internet and they never had anywhere near the amount of users FB has. Comparing it to Coke or the Wii is just plain ridiculous as they are totally different products that actually REQUIRE marketing, whereas FB has become ubiquitous and a household name without.

Facebook is the Google of social networking - it's not going anywhere and it's too big and has its tentacles into too many people to be overtaken by anything else. I'm interested to see how the stock pops tomorrow - I'm going to grab some shares if I can.

Personally, I like Google Plus, especially their new iPhone app, unfortunately everyone I know is on Facebook. That being said, I'm about to drop everyone who I have not personally talked to in the last few years.

[genjiZERO]

I think Facebook in particular is a fad, but social networking isn't. Personally, I'm just waiting for the next big thing. I can't wait to jump off the facebook boat. I actually went not too long ago without facebook for a couple months, but had to go back on it to add someone for professional reason.

Also:

AZN avenue 4 lyf!

[ToxicAdam]

I think social networking is intrinsic to 16-24 year olds for the foreseeable future. It's just too useful when you are that age and are finding your way in this world.

Now, Facebook could easily be rejected by future generations who see it as 'too conservative' or 'too mainstream'. I think the probablity of that happening is very likely. I think you're already seeing the seeds of that backlash right now.

[ElFly]

I can see facebook having staying power for the next five years.

Dunno beyond that. Maybe it won't go away in our lifetimes, but it surely will be irrelevant during them.

[PSFan]

Most of these people probably don't even know what a fad is...

[UraMallas]

I don't know how someone could call Facebook a fad. Draw Something is a fad, Facebook helps make the fads.

[Fuu]

It became such an ingrained hub for so many things, I'm on the camp that thinks it's hard to see it going away any time soon, unless there's some sudden shift in social networking that I can't predict.

I'm mostly indifferent about Facebook but it's good to me that it managed to take over completely in Brazil. It was annoying when social networking userbases here were divided between Orkut and Facebook for a while, as the point of these things is having everyone relevant to you in connected in the same place (for that same reason, thankfully the Google+ craze didn't last long here).

It's funny seeing people projecting and losing their shit over these networks, you can easily ignore what you dislike about them. I have an account on FB with some pictures and close to zero personal information that I only use for events and social gatherings. It's a very useful feature, but I ignore all the others because they don't appeal to me at this point in time. I'm happy they're there though, my mother has a lot of fun with posting, sharing, etc, and it helps her keep in touch with people she knows.

[Sirpopopop]

Well, that's one way to dumb down the discussion.

Not really.

He's exactly right. Facebook has been around for 9 years. A strong competitor to Myspace for 8 of those years. The industry leader for 6-7 of those years.

Would you call the winner of a console war a fad?

Because, right now, Facebook has had a reign at the top that is longer than the reign that most console war winners enjoy...

[Stet]

GM thinks so too ruh roh

GM isn't finished advertising on Facebook, they're just finished paying for advertising on Facebook. Cheap publicity stunt.

[SystemShock2]

I can't see facebook disappearing for quite some time. Everyone I know at least has a facebook, and there a bunch who use it a lot. There's like a 50% chance I'll see facebook on someone's computer screen on campus. It's too useful to ignore. I can't even imagine what competition would be like for it, and that's the only way I could see people ditching it.

[Alfarif]

A fad, to me, is something that is around and hot for a year tops. If you're around for two or more years, you're not a fad. If you get replaced, it just becomes the natural evolution of things. This shit is like saying VHS was a fad because it got replaced by DVD. Myspace got replaced by Facebook, because Facebook was doing things better. Facebook will eventually be replaced by something else, too.