[madmackem]

Pretty much. I honestly don't want to pay more than $399 for a next gen console. I'm guessing it'll be a nice jump at least from what we have now.

Yep we should see a nice leap for that kind of prie these days surely. I guess it comes down to them making money day one or not.

[CadetMahoney]

GOD I hope it's not the same shit like this gen where both PS4 and 720 are basically on parity with nothing really different to give a shit about. One of the other has to have something more to make things interesting.

[AzaK]

GOD I hope it's not the same shit like this gen where both PS4 and 720 are basically on parity with nothing really different to give a shit about. One of the other has to have something more to make things interesting.

This is Nintendo's thinking and look at they shit they get for it.

[Haunted]

PS4720 will be 399 each - mark my words!! Over 400 would be too much, and under 400 will be too much of a loss - that's why 399. I can't imagine them being more expensive. Of course it's just specualtion, though, but that's my gut feeling.

That's what they said about the PS3.


and



came the five hundred ninety nine us dollahs bomb

[BigTnaples]

Honestly I would rather the consoles be $499.99...



I mean, most of us thought when we bought our 360 for $399.99 in 2005 that a new one would be coming out in 2010 or 2011 at the latest. Here we are in 2012 and the next xbox is nowhere to be seen.

If the 720 launches in fall 2013, it will most likely last even longer before the next generation, which means we will very likely be stuck with whatever graphical horsepower the 720 brings in 2013, until 2020-2023.

I mean really, instead of buying a second launch game or controller, why not pony up an extra 100 bucks for a device that is going to last 10+ years?

Lets not be so shortsighted... Advancing of technology in video games is a great thing, lets not stagnate the progress further....

[Freezie KO]

Honestly I would rather the consoles be $499.99... I mean, most of us thought when we bought our 360 for $399.99 in 2005 that a new one would be coming out in 2010 or 2011 at the latest. Here we are in 2012 and the next xbox is nowhere to be seen. If the 720 launches in fall 2013, it will most likely last even longer before the next generation, which means we will very likely be stuck with whatever graphical horsepower the 720 brings in 2013, until 2020-2023. I mean really, instead of buying a second launch game or controller, why not pony up an extra 100 bucks for a device that is going to last 10+ years?

If there was a way to ensure the device would be supported the extra 3-5 years, then I'm all down with this kind of thinking. I'm not a fan of buying hardware. I'm all about the software.

But if the console is only going to be supported for a regular 5 year cycle, then give me a $300 "underpowered" machine.

[bgassassin]

Honestly I would rather the consoles be $499.99... I mean, most of us thought when we bought our 360 for $399.99 in 2005 that a new one would be coming out in 2010 or 2011 at the latest. Here we are in 2012 and the next xbox is nowhere to be seen. If the 720 launches in fall 2013, it will most likely last even longer before the next generation, which means we will very likely be stuck with whatever graphical horsepower the 720 brings in 2013, until 2020-2023. I mean really, instead of buying a second launch game or controller, why not pony up an extra 100 bucks for a device that is going to last 10+ years? Lets not be so shortsighted... Advancing of technology in video games is a great thing, lets not stagnate the progress further....

I wouldn't for the reason I mentioned on the first page.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost...9&postcount=83

[FunnyBunny]

Honestly I would rather the consoles be $499.99... I mean really, instead of buying a second launch game or controller, why not pony up an extra 100 bucks for a device that is going to last 10+ years? Lets not be so shortsighted... Advancing of technology in video games is a great thing, lets not stagnate the progress further....

The economic realities of 2012 are far different than 2005.

Consumers have less money to spend and expect more bang for each dollar spent. On the manufacturer end, neither Microsoft nor Sony are in positions to take a bath and sell systems at a significant loss at launch.

I will be shocked if new systems cost more than $399 at launch.

[Burai]

Honestly I would rather the consoles be $499.99... I mean, most of us thought when we bought our 360 for $399.99 in 2005 that a new one would be coming out in 2010 or 2011 at the latest. Here we are in 2012 and the next xbox is nowhere to be seen. If the 720 launches in fall 2013, it will most likely last even longer before the next generation, which means we will very likely be stuck with whatever graphical horsepower the 720 brings in 2013, until 2020-2023. I mean really, instead of buying a second launch game or controller, why not pony up an extra 100 bucks for a device that is going to last 10+ years? Lets not be so shortsighted... Advancing of technology in video games is a great thing, lets not stagnate the progress further....

But there's absolutely no guarantee that the platform will live longer just because it has better hardware. Commercial viability and power are not related.

Similarly we only need to look at PS3, which was a complicated and expensive hardware solution which is basically on-par with the cheaper, simpler Xbox 360, to show that extra hardware expense doesn't necessarily mean anything in real terms.

Even if you can guarantee better hardware, there's nothing stopping developers from developing for the lesser platform and porting up, giving consumers little incentive to pay extra for yours.

Plus if your competitors are on a five year cycle and launch new hardware midway through your cycle, they'll have extra power and the excitement that comes with a new console whilst you're still trying to sell the same-old.

[theBishop]

That's what they said about the PS3. and came the five hundred ninety nine us dollahs bomb

whodat?

[Feep]

whodat?

Day9, Starcraft 2 commentator.

[Reg]

just sell me a decently powered system for 300 bucks.

[Chuck Norris]

Just sell me superior, high spec technology at a low price fitting a 1995 market place. And it better be innovative too. And free online.

I know I don't ask for much, but you owe me as a gamer.

[Tyrax]

Just sell me superior, high spec technology at a low price fitting a 1995 market place. And it better be innovative too. And free online. I know I don't ask for much, but you owe me as a gamer.

Brilliant

[Flying_Phoenix]

Wii shone bright and then imploded. MS/Sony will want long generations which you need longevity in the hardware and good 3rd party support for

Wii imploded because Nintendo abandoned it to get a head start with the Wii U. This isn't really a secret. There is a reason why after New Super Mario Bros. nothing of interest came out until Zelda.

and I wish we wouldn't use single examples to predict anything in the console space.

Yes, just one of the most successful and most profitable gaming systems of all time and by far this gens frontrunner. Saying the Wii wasn't a game changer is like saying the iPhone isn't. Its ridiculous. Microsoft already flirted with it with Kinect and it had stunning success. But once again I wouldn't be surprised that Microsoft is now slowly drifting away from Kinect and going to their next platform to not fall behind Nintendo.

[Vagabundo]

Budgets be damned.

We need more PoWahhh

[davepoobond]

GOD I hope it's not the same shit like this gen where both PS4 and 720 are basically on parity with nothing really different to give a shit about. One of the other has to have something more to make things interesting.

shouldnt you give a shit about the services and the games provided by the owners of the console?

i would think that that is the main stress point in a decision either way.

[les papillons sexuels]

dear Sony and Microsoft. We recently looked at your console specifications and noticed that your performance output is less then our reseach accounted for and we feel our engine will suffer finacially if you do not bolster your current hardware. Please consider making your console more powerful, otherwise we'll need to re-invest our own money in developing new tools. So please, spend your money so we can make more money. epic.

Thats what it sounds like to me at least.

[pottuvoi]

Budgets be damned. We need more PoWahhh

Interestingly, if you have enough power you can also decrease the amount of money used to create same quality game..

[Gamer @ Heart]

Guys, go look at witcher 2 on 360. Be cool, baby.

[Thunder Monkey]

Interestingly, if you have enough power you can also decrease the amount of money used to create same quality game..

This isn't true as of yet. It's definitely what Epic is banking on, but it currently holds no weight. Until you no longer have to prebake your lighting the development pipelines won't change. You'll just be adding more work to it.

Part of me really hopes UE4 takes off. If only in one arena. It's lighting tech. That is the only cost saving measure UE4 seems to add. More powerful tech doesn't change anything else. But that alone could be huge.

[pottuvoi]

This isn't true as of yet. It's definitely what Epic is banking on, but it currently holds no weight. Until you no longer have to prebake your lighting the development pipelines won't change. You'll just be adding more work to it. Part of me really hopes UE4 takes off. If only in one arena. It's lighting tech. That is the only cost saving measure UE4 seems to add. More powerful tech doesn't change anything else. But that alone could be huge.

I should have been more clear, thanks for clearing it up. :)

Yes, if the lighting tech is really interactive without any precalculation, it will be huge step in right direction.
Especially with a quality they seem to be getting out of it.

[Thunder Monkey]

I should have been more clear, thanks for clearing it up. :) Yes, if the lighting tech is really interactive without any precalculation, it will be huge step in right direction. Especially with a quality they seem to be getting out of it.

I can only imagine how pissed devs are going to be if it isn't perfect.

[bomma_man]

It is true, of course, that better technology doesn't necessarily mean bigger budgets, but the fact of the matter is that the big developers are pushing everything as far towards Hollywood style production values as they can, and high specs just increase the bar. It really is unsustainable. The console market isn't growing at the same rate that budgets are. I mean PS360 is still lower than PS2's LTD isn't it? And GTA: SA's budget is probably pittance compared to the average these days.

[pottuvoi]

I can only imagine how pissed devs are going to be if it isn't perfect.

Indeed..
They have been developing the tech for years now with interactivity in mind, so I would guess it to be quite good.

[Thunder Monkey]

It is true, of course, that better technology doesn't necessarily mean bigger budgets, but the fact of the matter is that the big developers are pushing everything as far towards Hollywood style production values as they can, and high specs just increase the bar. It really is unsustainable. The console market isn't growing at the same rate that budgets are. I mean PS360 is still lower than PS2's LTD isn't it? And GTA: SA's budget is probably pittance compared to the average these days.

PS360 is closing in on the PS2 total as of 2006. They are still about 25-30 million units behind its total as of today.

Indeed.. They have been developing the tech for years now, so I would guess it to be quite good.

Until I see it in action I don't believe a word of it. I'm still skeptical that they have true Global Illumination running in realtime on the 680.

[bomma_man]

PS360 is closing in on the PS2 total as of 2006. They are still about 25-30 million units behind its total as of today.

So my point stands. If the console market fails to grow next gen, but budgets continue to, what's going to happen? Games are already overpriced as they are.

[SkylineRKR]

I don't want the stuff Epic wants.

I want an affordable gen and relatively short development times, and not even more studios that topple because of increasing costs and risks. I think that the rate of output on the HD consoles is up to snuff now. I would settle with an upgrade of the graphics we have now, ie. current-gen graphics possible in 1080p, 60fps and a load of AA. Battlefield with 64 players. Pretty much current high-end PC kind of power.

[Thunder Monkey]

So my point stands. If the console market fails to grow next gen, but budgets continue to, what's going to happen? Games are already overpriced as they are.

I'm kind of at a crossroads with this.

If their lighting tech really does take out a good chunk of work in baking lightmaps, then it's almost an imperative that MS and Sony shoot for the moon. Just so the dev pipeline can change in that one area.

At the other end I don't think this kind of increase is feasible every generation. We've got maybe two generations before the differences between them become completely negligible.

[pottuvoi]

Until I see it in action I don't believe a word of it. I'm still skeptical that they have true Global Illumination running in realtime on the 680.

Even if it's something similar to Cyrils presentation I linked earlier? (Interactive Indirect Illumination Using Voxel Cone Tracing .)
There has been some interesting approaches of late on realtime GI.

[Thunder Monkey]

Even if it's something similar to Cyrils presentation I linked earlier? (Interactive Indirect Illumination Using Voxel Cone Tracing .) There has been some interesting approaches of late on realtime GI.

I really should keep up with this stuff.

I'm apparently still stuck in the era of approximations. I hadn't seen your link from earlier. Seeing it happen in realtime is psychotic.

[AzaK]

Just sell me superior, high spec technology at a low price fitting a 1995 market place. And it better be innovative too. And free online. I know I don't ask for much, but you owe me as a gamer.

See Chuck Norris doesn't wait for next-gen, he punches it into existence.

[Blimblim]

This isn't true as of yet. It's definitely what Epic is banking on, but it currently holds no weight. Until you no longer have to prebake your lighting the development pipelines won't change. You'll just be adding more work to it. Part of me really hopes UE4 takes off. If only in one arena. It's lighting tech. That is the only cost saving measure UE4 seems to add. More powerful tech doesn't change anything else. But that alone could be huge.

Tessellation is also going to be a big help for modelers. Not having to produce various LOD levels of all the assets is a huge time saver.

[Vagabundo]

I'll believe it when I see it. With every generation the increased power of the consoles has spawned a rat race with increasing AAA budgets.

We'll see I suppose.

[Thunder Monkey]

Tessellation is also going to be a big help for modelers. Not having to produce various LOD levels of all the assets is a huge time saver.

To effectively use Tessellation and not get that really fucked up "Too smooth" look you're still going to have to model for the separate levels of tessellation. Very high poly generally for close-up shots, the midrange, and low for the far off camera scenes.

edit: I should say this might have changed. I haven't read enough on modern Tessellation techniques to know if they use normals, height and depth maps to approximate where polies are needed. I might just be thinking of standard LoD techniques.

[M°°nblade]

And at the same time, it was only during the advent of the PS3/360 era where being a graphics whore became something to be lauded instead of something to be mocked. So I don't see how that's a relevant issue.

Late reaction but the way some people shift the definition of a graphics whore from 'someone who derives pleasure from graphics only' to 'people wishing for a next-gen console graphics leap conform previous console hardware transitions' is a fine example of said lobbying.

[Thunder Monkey]

Late reaction but the way some people shift the definition of a graphics whore from 'someone who derives pleasure from graphics only' to 'people wishing for a next-gen console graphics leap conform previous console hardware transitions' is a fine example of said lobbying.

The issue comes in what people expect of a next-generational leap.

As time goes on this will be harder and harder to pin down. Next-gen asset quality will increase, but not by the same standards as they did the generation before. Which makes sense in a roundabout way. Poly counts themselves will increase by a very small metric. Instead of a model comprised of 40,000 polygons (right around Drakes cutscene model) to at best of 100,000 polies.

Environments will likely be busier. More diversified props, higher resolution textures. It really does seem that the biggest differences will come in the way of lighting and particles.

[Bert]

For me it is more the fact that when these consoles hit they have to be good for 6 - 10 years. They can't be obsolete after 12 months. If EPIC are turning out UnrealEngine4 quality in 2012 what is 2022 going to look like ? MS and SONY have to put things in place now to stop them needing a PS5 in 2015. If MS hadn't listened to EPIC when the 360 was launched think of the dire situation they would have been in against the PS3 in the last 2-3 years.

That's assuming MS and Sony want a 6-10 year cycle and don't want to move to a 2-3 year subscription based model.

[Eusis]

That's assuming MS and Sony want a 6-10 year cycle and don't want to move to a 2-3 year subscription based model.

I think stability has been one of the strengths of consoles versus computers. If they go that path I don't know if it'll be very practical in the long run, not unless they ensure compatibility like iOS... and even then, a LOT of iOS games are low end whereas console can be trusted to strained more.

Though, that could always have the paradoxical effect of making cheaper, lower budget games viable again.

[JonathanPower]

The economic realities of 2012 are far different than 2005. Consumers have less money to spend and expect more bang for each dollar spent. On the manufacturer end, neither Microsoft nor Sony are in positions to take a bath and sell systems at a significant loss at launch. I will be shocked if new systems cost more than $399 at launch.

The tech of 2013/2014 is also strongly different than the tech of 2005. If they were able to deliver in the 2005 for 299/399$ a triple core processor and an unified sharer GPU, which now are the norm but back then were a novelty, then I don't see why they can't deliver in the 2013/2014 for 399$ a console with a next generation GPU and CPU. After the introduction of the Unified Shader architecture in 2005 with the xbox360, there were no new revolutionary architectures introducted; we only saw an increase in GPU power, and nothing that was comparable to the introduction of the Unified Sharer architecture. In my opinion, what Epic is aking to MS and Sony is to invest more money for the development for a real next gen architecture, which would feature a real leap from the previous gen HW, just like the R500 was from the R420.

[Minion101]

Devs are already having trouble with the high budgets of this generation. We don't need studios going out of business trying to make avatar. Jesus. Sony and MS should just focus on making the consoles easy to develop for.

[M°°nblade]

The issue comes in what people expect of a next-generational leap. As time goes on this will be harder and harder to pin down. Next-gen asset quality will increase, but not by the same standards as they did the generation before. Which makes sense in a roundabout way. Poly counts themselves will increase by a very small metric. Instead of a model comprised of 40,000 polygons (right around Drakes cutscene model) to at best of 100,000 polies. Environments will likely be busier. More diversified props, higher resolution textures. It really does seem that the biggest differences will come in the way of lighting and particles.

Yes, on the software side diminishing returns will be inevitable as we come closer and closer to true fotorealistic graphics.
This is also part of the reason why this generation is in it's seventh year without a PS4 and Xbox3 announcement.

On the hardware side however, it's hilarious how some gamers feel hardware manufacturers should artificially go for a worse setup than what's financially avialable for them and handicap the capacities of their machines in order to protect publishers and developers from themselves because they might jump too high and go bankrupt.

Besides the fact that gamers or hardware manufacturers don't have the same insight in game development like developers and publishers do and thus shouldn't dictate how they should do their work, this would only enforce the diminishing returns and handicap their own gaming experience.

[JonathanPower]

Devs are already having trouble with the high budgets of this generation. We don't need studios going out of business trying to make avatar. Jesus. Sony and MS should just focus on making the consoles easy to develop for.

More powerful HW can also be easier to develop for, if better tools are provided.

[Thunder Monkey]

More powerful HW can also be easier to develop for, if better tools are provided.

This is the rub, and hopefully where Epic and Crytek excel.

Unless kept in check budgets could really and truly inflate out of control. Some believe they already have. Exceeding the growth of the industry.

[SapientWolf]

Devs are already having trouble with the high budgets of this generation. We don't need studios going out of business trying to make avatar. Jesus. Sony and MS should just focus on making the consoles easy to develop for.

That's what middleware companies and game engine designers are focused on. MS and Sony just need to give them what they need to do their jobs.

[Minion101]

This is the rub, and hopefully where Epic and Crytek excel. Unless kept in check budgets could really and truly inflate out of control. Some believe they already have. Exceeding the growth of the industry.

I think it's the reason Japan has fallen from grace. Budges are already to high for them.

[dragonelite]

Devs are already having trouble with the high budgets of this generation. We don't need studios going out of business trying to make avatar. Jesus. Sony and MS should just focus on making the consoles easy to develop for.

Not sure but most studios i heard going down under are mismanaged.
So budget will grow because publishers see opportunity for ROI in a studio.
If that said studio is mismanaged and don't reach the milestones yeah i think a publisher wont pay up your salary.

Kinda like Obsidian what fucking managers/boss accepts a bonus deal for metacritic he should have opted for profit or sales deal for a bonus metacritic really if you piss off some press before release bye bye bonus but still sell a shit and make a profit. And if you can't deal with the AAA high budget titles go for psn or xbla project enough money can be made there if say you have 4 project in the run and 2 of the 4 can carry the budget of the 4 projects. And can keep things fresh for your engineers and designers.

[neorej]

Devs are already having trouble with the high budgets of this generation. We don't need studios going out of business trying to make avatar. Jesus. Sony and MS should just focus on making the consoles easy to develop for.

CliffyB wants a real-time Avatar, so he will get his real-time Avatar!

[pottuvoi]

To effectively use Tessellation and not get that really fucked up "Too smooth" look you're still going to have to model for the separate levels of tessellation. Very high poly generally for close-up shots, the midrange, and low for the far off camera scenes. edit: I should say this might have changed. I haven't read enough on modern Tessellation techniques to know if they use normals, height and depth maps to approximate where polies are needed. I might just be thinking of standard LoD techniques.

Currently you pretty much can use what ever surface description model you want(IE.nurbs, and catmull-clark).
Displacement is in most cases done with heightmap although vector displacement map is gaining traction for obvious reasons. (some interesting tests have been done with geometry maps (old paper) etc.)

[JoshuaJSlone]

The console market isn't growing at the same rate that budgets are. I mean PS360 is still lower than PS2's LTD isn't it?

PS360 is still lower than where PS2 is now, but it's not behind where PS2 was at ~6 years. PS360Wii is also way ahead of PS2GCNXbox LTD and still running up the lead.