[Relix]

Welcome to the annual HS OT... this time the 2012 edition. This season is expected to be below normal thanks to a transition to El Niño, but it only takes one to surprise us. The Season generally runs from June 1 to November 30th, but this year Mother Nature gave us a surprise with a Tropical Storm in May 19th, Alberto. Its uncommon for systems to form this time of the season, but should it be a heads up?

List of Names: Alberto Beryl Chris Debby Ernesto Florence Gordon Helene Isaac Joyce Kirk Leslie Michael Nadine Oscar Patty Rafael Sandy Tony Valerie (unused) William (unused)

Forecasts of hurricane activity are issued before each hurricane season by noted hurricane experts Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray, and their associates at Colorado State University; and separately by NOAA forecasters. CSU's December 2011 discussion was notable in that the forecasting team announced it would no longer attempt quantitative forecasting nearly six months out, noting "...forecasts of the last 20 years have not shown real-time forecast skill." They will, however, release a quantitative forecast for 2012 in April.[5] Klotzbach's team (formerly led by Gray) defined the average number of storms per season (1981 to 2010) as 12.1 tropical storms, 6.4 hurricanes, 2.7 major hurricanes (storms reaching at least Category 3 strength in the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and ACE Index 96.1.[1] NOAA defines a season as above-normal, near-normal or below-normal by a combination of the number of named storms, the number reaching hurricane strength, the number reaching major hurricane strength and ACE Index.[6]

Straight from Wikipedia.

NOAA forecasts a near-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2012, in their May 24 outlook. They give a 50% chance of a near-normal season, a 25% chance of an above-normal season, and a 25% chance of a below-normal season. They predict a 70% chance that there will be 9 - 15 named storms, 4 - 8 hurricanes, and 1 - 3 major hurricanes, with an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 65% - 140% of the median. If we take the midpoint of these numbers, NOAA is calling for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE index 102% of normal. This is very close to the 1981 - 2010 average of 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes. Hurricane seasons during the active hurricane period 1995 - 2011 have averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes, with an ACE index 153% of the median. Only five seasons since 1995 have not been above normal--including four El Niño years (1997, 2002, 2006, and 2009), and the neutral 2007 season.

Fantastic resources:
www.wunderground.com/tropical
www.nhc.noaa.gov
http://vortex.plymouth.edu/tropical.html
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-tim...lm1&zoom=&time

[Relix]

HURRICANE SANDY

[KillGore]

I know it sounds horrible but I remember I used to love hurricanes when I was a kid. Being from Puerto Rico, I remember when Hurricane Georges arrived, it was thrill for me. Too bad it causes so much damage.

Isn't it kinda early for these things to be forming? Well I guess we are almost in June, so it makes sense.

[Relix]

I know it sounds horrible but I remember I used to love hurricanes when I was a kid. Being from Puerto Rico, I remember when Hurricane Geroges arrived, it was thrill for me. Too bad it causes so much damage. Isn't it kinda early for these things to be forming? Well I guess we are almost in June, so it makes sense.

*high five*
Georges was the last "true" hurricane we got here. Storms Irene and Jeanne were nothing compared to that beast.

[Evening Musuko]

I was wondering why this thread was up so early.

TS Alberto to be the first hurricane of the season.

IT IS HIS DESTINY.

[Relix]

I was wondering why this thread was up so early. TS Alberto to be the first hurricane of the season. IT IS HIS DESTINY.

Heh, perfectchaos tipped me. I was drunk as hell but I had been following 93L since yesterday. Got bumped to 50% today and bam... Storm tonight. Didn't expect it :P!

[Xeke]

Damn you beat me to it!

[KillGore]

*high five* Georges was the last "true" hurricane we got here. Storms Irene and Jeanne were nothing compared to that beast.

I still remember that night, my god what a beast. I'll never forget when we went out for a drive the following morning. One of the most shocking things for me was one of those big McDonald's signs getting snapped and being thrown on the highway

[ToxicAdam]

What was the synopsis on last year? Active but not many making landfall?

[Retro]

Saw the news on Alberto.

Thought to myself "I wonder if Relix will make the thread tonight?"

Relix does not disappoint.

[AbsoluteZero]

I live in St. Charles Parish.



BRING IT ON

[Akainu]

Man Florida hasn't had a good hurricane in years.

[AngryChinchilla]

Man Florida hasn't had a good hurricane in years.

Yeah, We have been quiet for too long.

[Alligatorjandro]

Man Florida hasn't had a good hurricane in years.

I hope Florida doesnt get any


Fuck the hurricanes

[perfectchaos007]

The last 2 hurricane seasons were forecasted to be major, but panned out to be rather uneventful save for a couple. Now that this season is expectd to be uneventful, it wouldn't surprise me to see 4 or 5 hurricanes make landfall on the continguous states haha.

[cajunator]

I live in St. Charles Parish. BRING IT ON

I live in Lafayette Parish, but you silly neighbors stay safe down there!

[Smiles and Cries]

Oh boy here we go

[Stormwatch]

Wow, what an early start to the season. Hopefully this hurricane season ends up being similar to the snow season in NY: One storm insanely early in the season followed by nothing to write home about for the rest of the year.

[Relix]

Invest 94L has 70% chance of becoming our second storm of the season... and we aren't even in the official season yet. Heh

[Pastry]

Bookmarked. Moved to Galveston in the fall, really hope I don't get a hurricane my first year here :(

[Snkfanatic]

Hoping that tropical storm that formed off of NC last weekend is not a sign of what is to come. We got some pretty crazy rain in VA from that.

[Baraka in the White House]

Bookmarked. Moved to Galveston in the fall, really hope I don't get a hurricane my first year here :(

Check out that new Pleasure Pier yet?

[Dega]

Bookmarked. Moved to Galveston in the fall, really hope I don't get a hurricane my first year here :(

Hello fellow Houston area Gaffer. :p

Wasn't expecting this thread so soon!

[Pastry]

Check out that new Pleasure Pier yet?

Drove by it this morning it looks cool, pretty much every Houston news station was there recording segments. All the rides are open except the three best looking ones so I'll probably wait a while to check it out, plus I really don't want to deal with all the Memorial Day tourists that will be there. I was hoping there would be a bar at the end of the pier but it looks like the only one is at the front :(

[MrJames]

Invest 94L has been renumbered to storm 02 so it looks like Beryl has just been born. Interesting to see what the intensity and track are.

[Relix]

Invest 94L has been renumbered to storm 02 so it looks like Beryl has just been born. Interesting to see what the intensity and track are.

Yup we definitely have Beryl. Just a matter of time until 11PM

[Relix]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 260242
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE SOUTHEWESTERN ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 74.8W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES COAST...FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE IN
NORTHEAST FLORIDA NORTHWARD TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF EDISTO BEACH
SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EDISTO BEACH SOUTH TO SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...BUT BERYL
SHOULD BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN OVERNIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
SOUTHWEST OR SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF
BERYL SHOULD BE NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES IN THE WARNING AREA ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH...75 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST IN THE
WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEAST FLORIDA TO SOUTH CAROLINA ON SUNDAY.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

STORM SURGE...HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDE LEVELS WILL OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES IN AREAS OF ONSHORE FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THESE TIDES MAY CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING.
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS FROM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOCAL FORECAST
OFFICES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTHEAST
FLORIDA...GEORGIA...AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS OVER THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[perfectchaos007]

what kind of projected path is that!? so many peculiarities about that track

[TheSeks]

Ugh. Tropical Storm on Sunday and I gotta go out and help someone that day.

[MrJames]

As long as the winds aren't bad, I don't mind the rain. We could use it...

[cj_iwakura]

Born and raised in FL, I'm used to them. Cat 3 and under, doable. Cat 4 and up, RLH.

[Not a Jellyfish]

Man Florida hasn't had a good hurricane in years.

That is a good thing. Ivan tore through my neck of the woods, Panhandle area. Was not fun.

Stayed for Ivan and it was five, I had a friend kayak to my house the next morning to make sure if we were alright.

[Relix]

Beryl seems to be transitioning to a Tropical Storm instead of Subtropical. The center is getting filled with t-storms. Gotta wait what the NHC says at 11!

Edit: Still a STS but considerably stronger, 60MPh from 45.

000
WTNT32 KNHC 271448
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
1100 AM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BERYL A LITTLE STRONGER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 79.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.6 WEST. THE
STORM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...
BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FOR AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED
BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A
DEPRESSION ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB...29.47 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS MORNING OR THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

COASTAL PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...AND NORTH FLORIDA...
1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/CANGIALOSI

[MrJames]

65mph and fully tropical now. Curious to see if NHC has to issue any hurricane watches soon.

[Alligatorjandro]

Fuck you Beryl

[maquiladora]

Wonder if she has enough time to reach Cat 1 status? Not too far off it.

[IamMattFox]

I thought hurricane season was over!

[Chumly]

Crazy to have two storms so early.

[maquiladora]

Recon is finding surface winds close to hurricane force and pressure down to 993mb.

We could have a hurricane soon....

[perfectchaos007]

Recon is finding surface winds close to hurricane force and pressure down to 993mb. We could have a hurricane soon....

It may hit land before that, but its gonna be close!

[Captain Tuttle]

Wow! Early start to the season huh? I guess it was the mild winter, water temps stayed fairly warm?

[maquiladora]

Wow! Early start to the season huh? I guess it was the mild winter, water temps stayed fairly warm?

If it does get upgraded, it would be the earliest landfalling hurricane since 1966.

[BankaiZaraki]

I live in Jacksonville and we've gotten some outter bands of rain some 15-20mph gusts but nothing substantial yet. Worse of it is tonight and tomorrow. What a way to celebrate an early birthday(its tomorrow).

BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!

[Derrick01]

Looks like the worst of this tiny storm is going to miss just north of where I am in Florida. Even the full blast of this probably wouldn't be too much to worry about, I dealt with much worse winds in that ridiculous season we had 7-8 years ago.

[Valkyr Junkie]

I buy a house and a year later we may have our first hurricane in half a century. Woohoo!

[maquiladora]

Recon about to make a second pass, this could be the deciding moment.

[DoctorButt]

texas was lucky last year. or unlucky, considering we were in one of the worst droughts in half a century

[Alligatorjandro]

winds are starting to pick up

[Relix]

Damn very low pressures. I doubt the NHC will call it an Hurricane, but its pretty close.

[MrJames]

Bridges are starting to close and the wind is really starting to pick up here on the Southside. I expect to lose power at some point.