[Relix]

000
WTNT32 KNHC 272348
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 8A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022012
800 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012

...BERYL NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ALREADY
ON THE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 80.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM E OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE FLORIDA TO EDISTO BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST. BERYL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...BERYL
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN TURN
NORTHWARD OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.

AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AND DOPPLER RADAR DATA INDICATE THE BERYL
IS JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL...BUT ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN
STRENGTH WOULD MAKE BERYL A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE. STEADY
WEAKENING IS FORECAST AFTER LANDFALL...AND BERYL IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY MONDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...
185 KM FROM THE CENTER. JACKSONVILLE BEACH PIER RECENTLY REPORTED
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 MPH...80 KM/H...WITH A GUST TO 58 MPH...95
KM/H.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 992 MB...29.29 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD INLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND CONTINUE
THROUGH TONIGHT. GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS
OF NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

GEORGIA AND NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...1 TO 2 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE LANDFALL LOCATION...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE
RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

SURF...DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...INCLUDING RIP CURRENTS...ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO NORTH
CAROLINA OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. PLEASE SEE
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR
INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.

RAINFALL...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
4 TO 8 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES...FROM
NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

[jeremy70583]

I live in Lafayette Parish, but you silly neighbors stay safe down there!

Nice, from lafayette parish, moved to kansas city in december, don't have to worry about hurricanes this year =)

[maquiladora]

Recon found 80 kts flight level winds....

[B.K.]

Nice, from lafayette parish, moved to kansas city in december, don't have to worry about hurricanes this year =)

But now you have to deal with tornadoes. I think I'd rather have hurricanes.

[Relix]

Borderline Cat 1 at least. Maybe a special advisory?

[bengraven]

I live in Jacksonville and we've gotten some outter bands of rain some 15-20mph gusts but nothing substantial yet. Worse of it is tonight and tomorrow. What a way to celebrate an early birthday(its tomorrow). BRING IT ON MOTHER NATURE!

Same here. I'm south of Middleburg and it's basically raining, drizzly, then calm before raining again. Tomorrow it's supposed to be nearly 40mph winds.

Everything is yellow and green tinted, though: so it's not going away yet.

[DMPrince]

Baton Rouge, LA here. last year was very boring. this year there was more rain spread throughout. waiting for at least one good hurricane. Florida got all the luck last year!

[Relix]

Same here. I'm south of Middleburg and it's basically raining, drizzly, then calm before raining again. Tomorrow it's supposed to be nearly 40mph winds. Everything is yellow and green tinted, though: so it's not going away yet.

This will sound so damn weird... but I love the feeling of an impending storm. Sadly I get those every one a few years... i love the thrill even though the damage is great.

[perfectchaos007]

Looks like it's going to make landfall in the next few minutes as a real strong tropical storm. 70mph winds

[Nakazato]

This damn storm took my power *shakes fist*

[BankaiZaraki]

Well that was disappointing. Me and the g/f went out last night to a bar and watched the whole thing unfold while sipping on some beers. Besides power out to at least 20,000 people, as far as I know no deaths reported and some power lines are down and some trees. Felt like a boss driving in the weather though. I'm ready for another one!

[perfectchaos007]

Well that was disappointing. Me and the g/f went out last night to a bar and watched the whole thing unfold while sipping on some beers. Besides power out to at least 20,000 people, as far as I know no deaths reported and some power lines are down and some trees. Felt like a boss driving in the weather though. I'm ready for another one!

If you're in Jacksonville, just wait another 40-50 years

[Relix]

If you're in Jacksonville, just wait another 40-50 years

Yeah, hitting Jacksonville straight on is no easy feat considering its location

[BankaiZaraki]

Yeah, hitting Jacksonville straight on is no easy feat considering its location

Yeah I was telling my g/f last night on the ride home that the last hurricane to hit directly Jacksonville was Dora wayy back in 1961 or 1964 or one of those years. Told her about how the land curves inward where we are at and how the ocean current always carries hurricanes either out to sea or to North Carolina.

[Alligatorjandro]

Im in Jax and we just got some wind and rain.The cable got knocked out though but power stayed on.

[perfectchaos007]

Yeah, hitting Jacksonville straight on is no easy feat considering its location

Almost as tough as it is for a storm to hit San Diego, haha

[bengraven]

It rained off and on, sometimes "hard" and stayed a bit foggy until noon. Drizzle and cloud cover until now, but hasn't rained for a while.

This really sucks. Maybe it's because we're only 20 miles from Jax.

This will sound so damn weird... but I love the feeling of an impending storm. Sadly I get those every one a few years... i love the thrill even though the damage is great.

I know how you feel. It's weird considering my current house is nearly on the water and literally mere inches of terrible wood, but I really would like a huge storm to hit.

I was very disappointed since moving down here and rain is a rarity. I was expected more frequent rain than back home on the prairie. At least up there a thunderstorm lasts for hours, not 5 minutes.

[Derrick01]

I got about 2 short bouts of rain and maybe 10-15mph winds. Guess this was further north than I thought it was going to be.

[MrJames]

I got a shitload of limbs and small branches all over my yard, patio and driveway but nothing serious. I'm surprised I never lost power or cable considering it was nearly a CAT1 storm and my cable and power are on utility poles. Had it been a tropical system from the start I think it could have been worse.

JEA showing about 13K customers still without power.

[perfectchaos007]

I have been looking forward to the named storm "Chris" for 6 years, and I must say, it has been pretty disappointing. Probably won't even develop into a hurricane.



Also, the wave in the gulf of mexico may be a depression soon

[bigtroyjon]

It already did develop into a hurricane.

[perfectchaos007]

It already did develop into a hurricane.

It did? I guess I missed that update

[MrJames]

As long as the winds aren't bad, I don't mind the rain. We could use it...

Tropical storm and a weeks worth of heavy rain helped a bit.

[Relix]

Holy crap I missed Chris :P! I was on vacations and... well... just realized it haha

[Baraka in the White House]

So there's some shit in the Gulf brewing and, surprise surprise, there's a dome of high pressure getting ready to park itself over the Texas coast.

Like fucking clockwork...

[perfectchaos007]

So there's some shit in the Gulf brewing and, surprise surprise, there's a dome of high pressure getting ready to park itself over the Texas coast. Like fucking clockwork...

I wonder if this one will also be here till October

[perfectchaos007]

Projected path says screw you high pressure over texas

[DMPrince]

fuu. curve up. need rain.

[Baraka in the White House]

Having mixed feelings right now. On one hand I'd love it if a mild storm moseyed on up to the upper Texas coast; on the other I don't want it to go all Rita on us. : /

I wonder if this one will also be here till October

Gah I fucking hope not. Worst summer ever.

[perfectchaos007]

Having mixed feelings right now. On one hand I'd love it if a mild storm moseyed on up to the upper Texas coast; on the other I don't want it to go all Rita on us. : / Gah I fucking hope not. Worst summer ever.

It's not even forecasted to have sustained hurricane forced winds at any point. Maybe a Cat. 1 at most, but it won't do that much wind damage unless some tornadoes spawn in the storm.

[Relix]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 232356
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEBBY INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 1A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
700 PM CDT SAT JUN 23 2012

...DEBBY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...OUTER RAINBANDS LASHING PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTH
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 87.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF LOUISIANA FROM THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER WESTWARD
TO MORGAN CITY...NOT INCLUDING THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS OR LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.5 WEST. DEBBY HAS
BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST
TO BEGIN BY SUNDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL WESTWARD TURN BY
SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER
OF DEBBY WILL BE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING WELL EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM..
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
DATA IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE
COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SUNDAY NIGHT...MAKING OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY
RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE
GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE
TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER
SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE
SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM SOUTHERN LOUISIANA TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.

TORNADOES...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[dskillzhtown]

Having mixed feelings right now. On one hand I'd love it if a mild storm moseyed on up to the upper Texas coast; on the other I don't want it to go all Rita on us. : / Gah I fucking hope not. Worst summer ever.

I have a feeling it is coming right to the upper Texas coast. I am getting ready now. Got my water, bought a new hand crank radio and dog food for my dogs. I'll keep our cars gassed up as well. Though this is not going to be a major storm wherever it hits, I would rather be over-prepared.

[perfectchaos007]

Now it is forecasted to become a hurricane. I just moved back to south houston last week, dammit

[perfectchaos007]

GFS is still convinced it will turn east instead of west. as of the 1am update, it still hasn't turned at all yet. once it turns in either direction, we'll have a better idea of where it's headed.

[Relix]

000
WTNT44 KNHC 241458
TCDAT4

TROPICAL STORM DEBBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042012
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 24 2012

IT IS A VERY DIFFICULT AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS MORNING.
DEBBY HAS BEEN MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...040 AT 3
KNOTS...WHILE THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDING IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. THIS HAS PROMPTED ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS
AND WATCHES FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA COAST.

DEBBY CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...ALTHOUGH SOME DECREASE IN THE SHEAR IS
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT...PARTICULARLY IF THE ECMWF VERIFIES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...BUT REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE EXPLICIT INTENSITY
GUIDANCE.

THE TRACK FORECAST IS EVEN MORE COMPLEX. THE GFS INSISTS ON A TRACK
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AS DEBBY BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. HOWEVER...THE ECMWF AND THE HWRF BUILD A RIDGE
TO THE NORTH OF DEBBY AND FORECAST A WESTWARD TRACK. GIVEN THE
WESTWARD TURN INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AS WELL AS THE
HISTORICAL STRONG RECORD OF THE ECMWF...THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
MOVES DEBBY INITIALLY A LITTLE BIT TO THE NORTHEAST TO REFLECT
CURRENT TRENDS BUT THEN TURNS THE CYCLONE BACK TOWARD THE WEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. A MAJORITY OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS NOW ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE DETERMINISTIC RUN...WHICH WAS
NOT THE CASE YESTERDAY...MAKING A STRONGER CASE FOR THE EASTWARD
SOLUTION. WE MUST BE READY TO MAKE A CHANGE OF THE FORECAST TRACK
AT ANY TIME.

[Baraka in the White House]

Disregarding Ike as an anomaly the upper Texas coast is straight up storm repellent. Before Ike we were like 20 something years overdue for a strike.

[perfectchaos007]

Disregarding Ike as an anomaly the upper Texas coast is straight up storm repellent. Before Ike we were like 20 something years overdue for a strike.

It used to be New Orleans...before Katrina. And yeah, the track doesn't show it yet, but Debby is going to florida. Texas will get high surf and nothing more

[MrJames]

Damn, last time I checked yesterday it was heading to Texes. Went to check the radar earlier as to why it's been raining all day and notice I might be getting another hit. The models keep trending east.

[perfectchaos007]

Hello fellow Houston area Gaffer. :p Wasn't expecting this thread so soon!

Emenis is that you? Why the name change?




Also, we now have a little wave off Africa AND IT'S STILL JUNE!!!!

[perfectchaos007]

That wave I mentioned a few days ago off africa has been moving westward for the past few days. It's starting to get a bit more organized. maybe when it goes across the lower Antilles we'll get a good idea of what it will become if anything.

[MisterNoisy]

Nothing against you cats, but I hope you remain bored all year.

[perfectchaos007]

Nothing against you cats, but I hope you remain bored all year.

Are you in the insurance business?

[Relix]

That wave I mentioned a few days ago off africa has been moving westward for the past few days. It's starting to get a bit more organized. maybe when it goes across the lower Antilles we'll get a good idea of what it will become if anything.

It got hit bad last night. Dry air and ULL.I wanted some rain :(. As long as it (and anything) stays away from Cancun until the 14th of July Ill be happy

[MrJames]

Tropical storm and a weeks worth of heavy rain helped a bit.

And now after Debbie...

[perfectchaos007]

July came and went without a disturbance. Over the next couple days, we may have something develop near the lower Antilles.

[HylianTom]

Nothing against you cats, but I hope you remain bored all year.

Still bored, but that's a-OK by me.

I've volunteered to be on my hospital's hurricane team, so I'm forced to stay in town no matter how strong the storm. Over the past few months, I have been stockpiling water and nutribars in a hidden space at the hospital, just in case.

Independent of work, I'll be taking some CERT classes (Community Emergency Response Team: http://www.citizencorps.gov/cert/ ) later on this year, just for some insight into how various agencies operate around here.

[maquiladora]

July came and went without a disturbance. Over the next couple days, we may have something develop near the lower Antilles.

99L up to 50%.

[perfectchaos007]

99L up to 50%.

Hmmm maybe it will develop before it reaches the Antilles

[Relix]

Come 99L baby, show me your goods. Oh wait you are a dude. I prefer female systems. :P

[Relix]

Aaand TD5 is born!