[Nirolak]

David Jaffe has put out a new prediction as to the death of consoles after the next generation.

... David Jaffe is never one to hold back an opinion, so after we talked in depth about the free-to-play market and his next project at his new San Diego studio, we also decided to pick the designer's brain on the Wii U and how the console market is shaping up. As it turns out, Jaffe isn't very excited by Wii U and he ultimately thinks consoles in general will soon be dinosaurs. "I don't see the Wii U and say 'oh my God I have to have that.' But with new hardware that's usually the case; the software's going to drive it. Or it's like Apple and the hardware is so elegantly designed that it's like, 'Oh they make toilet plungers? I'll buy it!' I played some games, I enjoyed Rayman... it's not like I'm knocking it but I would say that I wasn't blown away by any individual piece of software that was exclusive to Wii U," Jaffe commented. "But their audience isn't necessarily core gamers like you or the analysts you talk to, so I could still see Wii U being mainstream. But honestly though, if I had to put money down, I think that the iPhone and the iPad has basically taken the market that was so excited by the Wii and so I think Wii U is not going to be anywhere near the success of the Wii. But I don't f***ing know - I mean I thought PSP was going to clobber the DS. I'm in the industry, I make a living in the industry, but I have no track record of guessing this shit." Jaffe wanted to make it clear that he's not bashing Nintendo. "Nintendo's a great company and they're creative and artistic and I wish them well. They're forward thinking and I always want people like that to succeed," he continued. The bottom line is that Jaffe believes consoles are on their last legs. "So while I don't think it's going to do as well as the Wii, I don't think any of the consoles are going to do as well as they used to. It's a declining market, I think. That doesn't speak ill to any of them as pieces of hardware - it just speaks about the fact that the industry has changed, the business models have changed and the world has gotten even smaller with smartphones and tablets and the internet, and stuff like Gaikai and streaming." "Look, consoles are going away. I think in 10 years - probably sooner, but 10 years is always the safe thing to say so you don't sound like an idiot - but here's what I'll say: I'll go on the record and say that the next generation of hardware will be the last consoles. And they should be," Jaffe asserted. "It doesn't mean you won't buy a piece of hardware from Sony, but you'll probably buy a television that streams the stuff. And you'll still have Sony, loud and proud and strong making these great, big, epic games like God of War and Uncharted, and they'll be making great little games like Sound Shapes, but they'll become more like movie studios for video games. I'll be able to stream in the next Uncharted and Plants vs Zombies and you won't even think about it. It'll just be like I can watch a public access show on my TV or I can watch Avatar." Jaffe concluded, "So this is the last generation of consoles coming up. I'm going to go out on a limb, because why the f**k not? I don't care if I'm wrong, I'm not a business guy. I think next-gen consoles are going to do 40 percent of [the sales volume] of the current gen hardware." "The asteroid has hit the Earth, the dust cloud is covering the sun and the dinosaurs are on the way out - but not the games! We'll always have great games and bleeding edge graphics... it's just going to be a new delivery mechanism." ...

Source: http://www.gamesindustry.biz/article...gen-says-jaffe

[Petrichor]

I agree.

Sadly :(

[EmCeeGramr]

"But I don't f***ing know."
-David Jaffe, modern Socrates

[Wyndstryker]

One console future?
PC Master Race confirmed?

[thuway]

Sigh this is why I want Sony and MS to go all out...

[apana]

Jaffe is awesome and also very wrong.

[Derrick01]

Can we at least see what MS and Sony are going to roll out before predicting more doom? Man Nintendo really made everyone so down and negative after E3.

[Syphon Filter]

Well i see them not being consoles anymore at a point. You can already see it this gen. I can also see them being services like Steam but at that point just sell software on pc or something.

[Holy Wars]

There's no need for a dedicated games console. Even in 2012 it's ridiculous.

[Eight Diagram Bat Fighter]

People said the same bull crap about arcades.

[MRORANGE]

Apple vs Steam vs Onlive


welcome to your new trio gaf.

[djplaeskool]

I don't f***ing know

C'mon son.

[MightyHedgehog]

Obvious, but it's even debatable whether next-gen platforms will be considered consoles in any traditional sense.

[EatChildren]

I like how Jaffe makes it very, very clear that he is not knocking Nintendo. Words of a man who has rattled that beehive before.

[Syphon Filter]

People said the same bull crap about arcades.

[KevinCow]

Definitely a possibility. I don't have any idea what will take the place of consoles, though. I don't think it'll be PCs, unless there's a massive change in how PC gaming works.

The industry's going to look really different a decade from now.

[Phonomezer]

How many consoles sold this generation? Over 200 million?

[FoneBone]

I don't think he's the first person to say this. And I agree.

[Pranay_]

One console future? PC Master Race confirmed?

TV master race streaming game from the internet

[thuway]

Can we at least see what MS and Sony are going to roll out before predicting more doom? Man Nintendo really made everyone so down and negative after E3.

Sony and MS need to look at the Agnis philosophy tech demo and say to themselves - "We shoot for this."

[Fjordson]

Eventually it'll happen. The idea of a dedicated gaming box will either go away or change drastically from what it is right now, but I don't think the next round of them will be the last.

Nor do I see them only selling 40 percent of what this gen's systems sold. But, like Jaffe, I'm not a business guy, so who knows. Just my gut feeling.

[Syphon Filter]

How many consoles sold this generation? Over 200 million?

Most of the growth this gen compared to last is because of non gaming aspects.

[elsk]

Stream-only gaming? That sounds very stupid, even in 10 years.

[Grinchy]

I like Jaffe a lot but I don't put a lot of stock into his predictions.

[Pranay_]

"It doesn't mean you won't buy a piece of hardware from Sony, but you'll probably buy a television that streams the stuff. And you'll still have Sony, loud and proud and strong making these great, big, epic games like God of War and Uncharted, and they'll be making great little games like Sound Shapes, but they'll become more like movie studios for video games. I'll be able to stream in the next Uncharted and Plants vs Zombies and you won't even think about it. It'll just be like I can watch a public access show on my TV or I can watch Avatar."


ppl need to read this as well

[ClovingWestbrook]

He's right imo. Apple has taken the audience that Nintendo banked on for the Wii. Dedicated hardware for gaming will be over after this generation.

[Lactose_Intolerant]

Sony and MS need to look at the Agnis philosophy tech demo and say to themselves - "We shoot for this."

at 720p, no aa.

[Darknight]

Pretty much agree. With Apple,Gaikai in the mix, (along wit tablets/smartphones)console hardware is becoming less and less needed.

[elcapitan]

Sony and MS need to look at the Agnis philosophy tech demo and say to themselves - "We shoot for this."

And it will be streaming through your TV.

[Zhengi]

He admits he doesn't know what he is talking about. Why is this news?

[erpg]

Can we at least see what MS and Sony are going to roll out before predicting more doom? Man Nintendo really made everyone so down and negative after E3.

Ha, seriously. I never thought about it that way, but after E3, all I could think of was "Oh man, what a retread. This industry isn't moving forward at all." But that's primarily because of Nintendo's showing.

Sony and Microsoft's, even with all the bombast, were just epilogues on the current gen. We haven't seen anything yet.

[Derrick01]

Sony and MS need to look at the Agnis philosophy tech demo and say to themselves - "We shoot for this."

I was thinking more like Star Wars and Watch Dogs but sure we can do that too. I just thought that looked like a typical Square cutscene to me.

[ClovingWestbrook]

He admits he doesn't know what he is talking about. Why is this news?

Because he's in the industry and probably knows more than anyone of us on GAF who starts threads regarding the future? It's interesting to see what those in the industry expect the future to hold.

[elsk]

I do see Nintendo putting their new hardware inside TVs and stuff, tho. But if Sony and MS are still focusing in core gamers then they'll have to release a console.

[dream]

I see where Jaffe is coming from. As gaming expands to a new audience, niche "hardcore" gaming systems become far less attractive.

[KevinCow]

He admits he doesn't know what he is talking about. Why is this news?

Guy admits his fallibility as a human and acknowledges his inability to predict the future with 100% accuracy.

"CLEARLY HE HAS NO IDEA WHAT HE'S TALKING ABOUT LOL!"

[gogogow]

Because he's in the industry and probably knows more than anyone of us on GAF who starts threads regarding the future? It's interesting to see what those in the industry expect the future to hold.

Seems his guess is as good as ours...

But I don't f***ing know - I mean I thought PSP was going to clobber the DS. I'm in the industry, I make a living in the industry, but I have no track record of guessing this shit."

[AgentChris]

Who knows. Next gen will last a long time. We don't know the changes or trends that will happen within the next 10 years.

[Toppot]

I'd say two generations myself. USA might be ready for a console-less future with its broadband speeds but some of Europe and developing countries do not.

In EU we get R&C PSN games released as retail discs because of poor broadband connections (Overall compared to USA) The act of being able to pick up a game, put it in your standardized console and play it without internet won't go away that quick. This is the main reason consoles still exist. Though things like onlive that require just a connection and not a powerful machine in your living room are the future, once everywhere has sufficient internet speeds.

What we will likely see is different SKU's, much like the PSP Go was an internet based SKU of the PSP. Which showed very clearly the world wasn't ready for purely online device of that definition.

Mobile and online will continue to grow, but bigger games will still require physical media options in 20-30 years.

The gen after next will likely have one SKU for streaming (PlayStation Cloud for example, you can only get PlayStation games on our service), one that will support streaming and downloading of titles for offline play, and one that will do all of the above but also have an optical disc or 'cartridge' drive.

[BosSin]

I hope he likes crow

[Durante]

I think he's probably right, off by one generation at most. Casual gamers (and I include the CoD millions in that) will be streaming stuff, independent/niche/hardcore titles will be distributed digitally on PC and other platforms with minimal cost of entry.

[Touch]

Buy a Bravia, problem solved? That could work for SONY and maybe even Microsoft through Windows, but what about Nintendo? I guess doomed.

[Derrick01]

Guy admits his fallibility as a human and acknowledges his inability to predict the future with 100% accuracy. "CLEARLY HE HAS NO IDEA WHAT HE'S TALKING ABOUT LOL!"

Was it ever confirmed he's working on ios stuff now or was that just a rumor? Because it seems like whenever someone is predicting doom for the console industry it's always someone who has an iphone game in the works. That's my problem with the whole thing, not because I think he's some joke or something.

[UberTag]

I think Jaffe is absolutely right about Sony.

I believe Microsoft is already transitioning down this path by integrating "Xbox Tech" into everything from tablets, smartphones, TVs. Microsoft will release future game-enabled media devices after the Xbox 8 but they won't be in the console form factor we're familiar with today.

Nintendo will release another system after the Wii U but it will be on par or below what the "next-gen" systems will bring to the table. But that's just because Nintendo is stubborn. They're the modern-day equivalent of the guy shilling horse and buggies to the masses 20 years after the automobile became affordable.

[gogogow]

Was it ever confirmed he's working on ios stuff now or was that just a rumor? Because it seems like whenever someone is predicting doom for the console industry it's always someone who has an iphone game in the works. That's my problem with the whole thing, not because I think he's some joke or something.

f2p shooter

[Goldrusher]

The next game of David Jaffe will be the last one as well.

[Silly.Mikey]

No way that's gonna happen. TVs thatll stream games? Come on. How many people upgrade their TV regularly like they do consoles? No one i know of. It might evolve more into a hybrid of a PC and a console combined though. By that i mean kind of like windows launching a windows 8 machine instead of an OS and a console separately. Kinda like mac do now and you'll put it next to your TV and itll be small and pretty. The console and PC spaces are very different now, but i think youll see them "combine" more and more as time goes on. This will blur the line completely. Where as now, a pc is in the office and the console is in the living room, soon both will be combined and it wont matter where you have it. But there will still be a "console" per say. I also expect Sony and maybe even MS to partner up with someone else to do it.

[Metalmurphy]

10 years seems to soon but yeah, it'll all be streamed directly to the TVs eventually.

[S1kkZ]

there will be consoles, unless every potential customer has a really, Really fast broadband connection.

[GreggTheGrimReaper]

After this years E3, who would shed a tear if traditional consoles just die?