[spekkeh]

What went wrong with it? They released it as a gaming device, that's what's wrong with it. It has so much more potential in other areas.

Yeah, what went wrong is that people got suckered into thinking gaming without accurate interaction or physicalness would be an enticing prospect that you pay money for. Actually that went really well for MS, but still.

[Oni Jazar]

A mime simulator is about as good as an experience Kinect can give you.

[Stumpokapow]

Followup--
Tie ratios decrease slightly (or stall) when sales pick up. They increase when sales slow down. This is because new owners necessarily own fewer games than old owners, so when the proportion of owners from new to old changes, so does the tie ratio. JoshuaJSlone did a thing we compared the "average number of games bought per week a person owns a console", which was a pretty neat way for compensating for this. Basically, if 10 people own a console for a month each, that's 10 person-months. If 10 people own a console for a year each, that's 120 person-months. So we would expect more software to be sold in the later case, even though the hardware base is the same.

Some people replace their 360s. If that's the extent of the comment, it's uncontroversial. Some people replace all systems. We would expect systems with more significant revisions (DS -> DS Lite, 360 -> 360S) to be replaced more often than systems with less significant revisions (Wii -> Wii that got knocked over on its side and lost Gamecube capabilities). What a replacement does to the effective install base depends on what is done with the original console. If it is traded or gifted to somebody, the "replacement" is irrelevant, because there's still one more owner out there. If the original is thrown out or kept by the person, the "replacement" shows up as a sale but does not increase the effective install base. This will have a negative impact on software tie ratio.

What is the percentage of people who replace their consoles? For all consoles, it is non-zero. Maybe it's 1%. Maybe 5%. Maybe 10%. Maybe 100%--maybe literally every sale every month is the same set of owners just rebuying the hardware again and again. As I mentioned before, let's just consider replacements that do not increase the effective hardware install base. What is the significance of this figure?

Well, if the replacement rate is high, hardware sales will "look artificially high". We will see consequences for this in the software tie ratio both short term and long-term. Short-term, those consequences will look like the same consequences as hardware sales being actually high from all new owners. New owners don't buy much software. Old owners subsidize the tie ratio. So short term, if a console sells double what it sold the same month the year before, the result to the tie ratio is the same whether the increased sales are all new purchasers, or all people replacing consoles.

Long-term, though, the consequence would be a major drop in tie ratio. Because those "new owners" will never buy more software, because they weren't new owners to begin with. We would also expect this kind of impact to occur if the install base of a console became significantly more casual--and by casual, I don't mean gaming casual, I mean part-time casual. If new owners were all new people, but simply less interested in buying software, we'd also see the tie ratio dropping.

So the reality is we're dealing with a number of interlocking factors. Kinect changing the composition of the 360 software market is one. The 360's overall sales accelerating is another. Replacements are another. The overall change in the market (and in fact the overall economy) are another. Competition from other platforms waxing and waning is another--this, by the way, is the reason why the PS2's tie ratio in its 7th year is not a great comparison to anything from this generation; the Wii and PS3 are quite viable in the US and worldwide, even with significant declines in the Wii. All of these factors play in to another and it's very difficult to isolate any one of them.

What we're left with is two possibilities--either we clearly see a significant indication that 360 hardware sales are in some way "inflated" by replacements in specific, or things basically look pretty sensible. There are replacements, maybe more or less than other consoles. There was an uptick of sales related to Kinect and the Wii's relative decline. The tie ratio remains strong although not stratospheric to the point that we need to be wondering why. The 360 has a longer tail than most consoles, but nothing that's really mindboggling. The 360 still suffers end-of-generation decline, as well as market-wide decline. I don't think we have evidence for the former case.

So if the point of saying "there are replacements" is to say "there are replacements", yes, that's true. But if the point of saying "there are replacements" is to allege "the 360 didn't really have an uptick in sales, the 360 hasn't really been the dominant console for the last 18 months in the US, it's all trickery"--I don't think that's supported by facts.

But if the latter thing was true, if the 360 really didn't have an uptick in sales or a large part of it could be explained by replacements, there'd be two consequences. First, we'd see a dramatic tie ratio collapse, much more dramatic than the relative stall (which could, as I mention above, be explained by the more obvious explanation of hardware sales accelerating and Kinect owners buying a little less software). Second, if we try to account for replacements in the install base figures, we need to also account for replacements in the software tie ratio. The more of its hardware install base we subtract to get a true figure, the higher the software tie ratio gets in its true figure; which would lead to the unprecedented figures I'm talking about.

I didn't intend to derail the thread about this (and I'd much rather people reply to my post about Kinect!), iceatcs just hit on something that was a frustrating bugaboo in NPD threads whether he meant to or not.

[iceatcs]

Wow. I think you need more chill. I didn't intend to answer back. I just state my confusion with my low English.

[Vilix]

The problem with Kinect was that it was never needed in the first place. My kids had their fun on the Wii years before Kinect. Now they're playing their games on their portable devices, if at all. As for me, I've had my time with motion controls. Liked it at first, but then went back to using a regular controller. I'm sure there will be an actual improvement/evolution to using a regular controller. But, for now it seems that's where games will be staying. And I am totally content with that.

[marc^o^]

The most interesting Kinect use at E3 was around voice commands. I assume though, that the fact it works well is more related to MS software expertise, than anything related to the Kinect hardware? Stumpokapow, could you please develop on that?

Edit: I assume EA didn't implement voice commands in Mass Effect 3 on PS3 because PS Eye lacks noise cancellation. I wonder if Wii U microphone will face the same issue, or if its close range can make up for it (only Nintendo game I know that uses voice recognition is Nintendogs, and it doesn't work very well, I assume software is really key).

[AwRy108]

Over promised, and under delivered. Even worse, A LOT of us were trying to convince people before launch that MS was over promising, and many people just ignored us. People just want to believe...

This post nails it.

[Raide]

The problem with Kinect was that it was never needed in the first place. My kids had their fun on the Wii years before Kinect. Now they're playing their games on their portable devices, if at all. As for me, I've had my time with motion controls. Liked it at first, but then went back to using a regular controller. I'm sure there will be an actual improvement/evolution to using a regular controller. But, for now it seems that's where games will be staying. And I am totally content with that.

I am glad at least some developers try to do things that are not needed, else we would be stuck with 2 buttons and a D-Pad for everything. Sure Kinect did not live up to the grand promises MS made for it but I would rather they keep on working on the system instead of utterly dropping it for next-gen.

[InaudibleWhispa]

I'd say they succeeded in creating a device that surpasses the Wii for casual gaming, but have failed to live up to expectations they created for core gaming. If you bought a Kinect to play exciting innovative titles such as Milo, then it's going to collect as much dust as the Wii does. If you're one of the seemingly few core gamers who doesn't mind dancing and playing motion sports with friends on the weekend, or you're solely a casual gamer (which Kinect was primarily catering too), then there is a lot to enjoy.

There are certainly enough solid casual experiences to warrant a purchase if that sort of thing appeals to you, and there are a handful of games that appeal to the gamer in you too, just not enough to warrant a purchase for those experiences alone. In that regard, it is disappointing that Kinect hasn't had that one great core experience. Gunstringer and Child of Eden are great, but it never got its Milo. Whether that's due to hardware limitations, problems with the controller-free concept or problems getting funding for an expensive, risky project that will only appeal to and is only playable by a limited number of 360 owners is hard to say, but it's probably a good mix of all of those things. Fable: The Journey has promise, but I don't see it being the Mario Galaxy of Kinect.

I'd also add that voice commands have added a lot to the few core games that use it (and menu navigation especially) and while Eurogamer is right that it disappointingly sidesteps the main functionality of the sensor, I hope and expect that voice recognition at least will be a built in feature of the next Xbox for every owner. A recent interview with Rare indicates that the next step for Microsoft in this area is Siri-like natural conversation rather than forced commands, which should make using it a lot more comfortable too.

[Alx]

The most interesting Kinect use at E3 was around voice commands. I assume though, that the fact it works well is more related to MS software expertise, than anything related to the Kinect hardware?

The recognition itself depends on MS software tools indeed (and from what I read, they're not too bad).
What kinect brings to the table is the ability to use it from afar, at any moment and without a dedicated headset. Filtering the ambient noise, cancelling echo, and localizing the user through his voice was one of the big hurdles of kinect development, and something that MS Research can be proud of.

[BruceLeeRoy]

I'd say they succeeded in creating a device that surpasses the Wii for casual gaming, but have failed to live up to expectations they created for core gaming. If you bought a Kinect to play exciting innovative titles such as Milo, then it's going to collect as much dust as the Wii does. If you're one of the seemingly few core gamers who doesn't mind dancing and playing motion sports with friends on the weekend, or you're solely a casual gamer (which Kinect was primarily catering too), then there is a lot to enjoy. There are certainly enough solid casual experiences to warrant a purchase if that sort of thing appeals to you, and there are a handful of games that appeal to the gamer in you too, just not enough to warrant a purchase for those experiences alone. In that regard, it is disappointing that Kinect hasn't had that one great core experience. Gunstringer and Child of Eden are great, but it never got its Milo. Whether that's due to hardware limitations, problems with the controller-free concept or problems getting funding for an expensive, risky project that will only appeal to and is only playable by a limited number of 360 owners is hard to say, but it's probably a good mix of all of those things. Fable: The Journey has promise, but I don't see it being the Mario Galaxy of Kinect. I'd also add that voice commands have added a lot to the few core games that use it (and menu navigation especially) and while Eurogamer is right that it disappointingly sidesteps the main functionality of the sensor, I hope and expect that voice recognition at least will be a built in feature of the next Xbox for every owner. A recent interview with Rare indicates that the next step for Microsoft in this area is Siri-like natural conversation rather than forced commands, which should make using it a lot more comfortable too.

I completely agree with this. Anyone that saw me post around Kinects unveiling and launch knew I expected it to be a absolute P.O.S but it is easily the best out of all the motion tech from all the 3 console manufacturers especially when it comes to casual games. Dance Central plus a egregious amount of alcohol is some great times to be had.

[Clear]

Been saying this for years:

Kinect, like all optical sensors is fundamentally limited in what it can be used effectively for.

MS marketed the hell out of it as general-purpose gaming device, most likely in spite of very many voices internally telling them that it would never be that. That's somewhat dishonest, but its good sales strategy - you want to eliminate all negativity in your pitch.

The basic premise has always been that here's this device that can make interactions much more natural and instinctive because it knows what your whole body is doing at any given time. Which is great, except that for that to actually work as advertised it would need to basically be reading your mind at all times, and that's not what it does.

Lag isn't just a product of the time it takes for the camera/data latency, its dependant upon the phenomena its observing. You need to physically complete the designated action for it to be registered; you can work around this to some extent by breaking down complex motions into (temporally) shorter segments but ultimately the program is going to make a binary success/fail decision on each chunk and bail-out if one part of the chain doesn't complete.

Occlusion/visibility issues are another concern. The user(s) need to remain in the camera's field of view at all times, basically putting you in a virtual wheelchair as far as locomotion is concerned. You can't use your legs for their biological purpose of moving about and so designers need to invent some sort of mime equivalent (unnatural and immersion breaking) or straight-up take away that ability from user control. This is a HUGE limitation compared to conventional interfaces.

Small muscle motions (hands and fingers) are difficult to track not just because of sensor resolution but because of the risk of them being hidden behind other limbs/body parts. In which case the system needs to fall back on a predictive algorithm; this is fine when the motion being simulated is "loose", but you can't abdicate critical decision making to the software even 1 time out of 100. Because if it gets it wrong (predicts an unintended outcome) the user is going to curse you for it.

All this comes back to the whole "mind-reader" level of acuity that is at the heart of the sales pitch; what Kinect is doing is actually adding an interpretive layer between action and response recognition in the software. Rather than making input more direct, its actually doing the reverse by creating a mid-ground abstraction that the program its servicing needs to respond to. This is a massive drawback for performance critical situations where the absolute current-high/current-low states of a microswitch offer unambiguous, definitive binary feedback to the system.

The underlying premise of good interface design is minimizing the distance cognitively and temporally between intent and actualized external action. Kinect or whatever comes next is NEVER going to achieve this, because it simply doesn't work like that.

[Stumpokapow]

Wow. I think you need more chill. I didn't intend to answer back. I just state my confusion with my low English.

Erm, I'm not freaking out here, I just posted a calm but thorough walkthrough on how we might expect replacements to impact hardware sales to follow up to yourself and wf, both of whom engaged me on the point in question.

The most interesting Kinect use at E3 was around voice commands. I assume though, that the fact it works well is more related to MS software expertise, than anything related to the Kinect hardware? Stumpokapow, could you please develop on that?

Voice commands in some games work very well. I used them on and off for Mass Effect 3. They worked 100% of the time. I think for the kind of stuff Microsoft showed at E3, it'll work quite well. Does it really add anything that a controller doesn't? Well, I don't really think so. Maybe it could if software was developed with it in mind, but for the most part it isn't. Mass Effect 3 was mostly played by people who don't own Kinects, and so the Kinect functions were only ever going to be a voice layer on top of a game that was already built and balanced around a controller.

In other, worse games, not so well--Who Wants to be a Millionaire sucks because of it, since first of all they don't work 100% of the time ("B" and "D" are tough to detect; Brain Age had similar problems with the voice commands in my opinion) and second of all because the delay in detecting the commands is very frustrating. "Yes! Final Answer! Final Answer! Yes! Ugh!" The worst part is that Who Wants to Be a Millionaire has no controller support, just gesture or voice, so every game lasts ten times as long as it should. It is not a good game.

In the operating system... It's not so good for picking options that are on the current menu, because it's pretty much always faster to just press "down -> right -> A" or whatever to make your selection. I would never use Kinect to fastforward a movie or pause. It's a little bit better for searching for stuff, especially across applications like if you want to watch a movie but you don't know which services have it available.

It's quick for finding games on the marketplace too ("Xbox Bing Adventures of Shuggy" is definitely faster than going through the marketplace). I would say it works maybe 80% of the time--there's an XBLA game called "Schizoid". Would you pronounce that "Skitz oid" or "Skiz oid"? The difference is a subtle matter of accent. Don't expect to use Kinect to search for ambiguous stuff like that. One thing that is good is that if you have 100+ games on your 360, it can take a while to load the page with all of them, so you can "Xbox Bing A Kingdom for Keflings" and then launch it from there. Using just voice control it's a bit cumbersome, but using voice control to get the content you want and then using the controller to launch it is pretty quick, faster than the UI on any other console would be.

I wouldn't buy a Kinect for voice commands.

[tinfoilhatman]

100x better than any other device console for workout\dance games beyond that it's more of a toy

[flyinpiranha]

You must have purchased an enormous amount of 360 software along with your replacement, though, because the tie ratio isn't stalling or decreasing--and you've already conceded that you believe "quite high" numbers of people, like you, bought replacement 360s. So I guess everyone is buying an enormous amount of 360 software. An unprecedented amount, really.

Everybody knows that when a 360 dies, the games go with it. They are intrinsically tied to each other. I know when I replaced my 360 with an Elite a couple years ago I had to repurchase all my games because they all refused to play in the new 360 and died of grief very shortly thereafter.

As for Kinect, the 7 year old has had a blast with it, but we are out of a house, in a condo now while we save for a down on a house and it's not getting as much playtime. I think like others have mentioned, outside of the 'party game' or 'kids game' aspect the voice commands are about all it has going for it at this point. The camera resolution is too low and the tech driving it needs some more refinement IMO. I enjoyed a game or two but it's nothing that I could just sit and play for an hour or so like the kid does.

I think they did everything right honestly. The lack of fidelity for me translates into a great thing for children who don't understand 1:1 ratios.

It's just not for me, yet.

[cyberheater]

My kids (6 and 8) love Kinect. Even playing that Starwars game. They also love the dance games. It's perfect for them. It gets them up off the sofa and moving.

[McLovin]

It needs it's own equivilant of wii motion +, but there's no way to make it happen.

[chris3116]

When it was released, I thought it would fail but it didn't. It revived a console that it was on its last legs. I would not be surprised to see this things to be a new priority on the next console.

[marc^o^]

Thanks Stumpokapow, what about voice chat in online games, have you got rid of your headset since you got Kinect?

[Oni Jazar]

Edit: I assume EA didn't implement voice commands in Mass Effect 3 on PS3 because PS Eye lacks noise cancellation. I wonder if Wii U microphone will face the same issue, or if its close range can make up for it (only Nintendo game I know that uses voice recognition is Nintendogs, and it doesn't work very well, I assume software is really key).

PSEye has noise cancellation. I'm sure EA didn't implement voice commands because either 1) It was easy to use the Microsoft Voice Recognition API that Kinect provides and/or 2) Microsoft payed them to add "Kinect" functionality.

[Stumpokapow]

Thanks Stumpokapow, what about voice chat in online games, have you got rid of your headset since you got Kinect?

Kinect voice chat works well and I don't have any problem with echoing. I don't play a lot of shooters or team-based games, so most of my conversations are very low importance. Some people report problems with echoing. I think if you were playing shooters you'd still prefer a headset just for the ability to quick-mute and unmute. I found Kinect voice chat works better than Wii Speak--although I only even used Wii Speak for Animal Crossing, so some of that could be software.

One thing I will note about it--Kinect by default works as a voice mic when you have it plugged in. Even if you don't know it is. I was playing Quarrel (which is basically like Risk meets Scrabble, great little game) against a family of people who clearly had their Kinect plugged in, and they were all talking to each other and strategizing and I could hear them talking to each other. It was really cute because it was two parents and their young, 5-8 year old kids, but obviously you can think of ways that that could go horribly wrong. Another time I was playing Minecraft with my brother-in-law and we were making fun of him (you know, just joking around, "what a doofus" "what the hell is he doing?"--nothing we wouldn't say to his face) and it was only a few minutes later we realized he could hear us.

[dwu8991]

The lag in both move and kinect are very apparent.

The wii motion plus has no lag but requires constant caibration

[marc^o^]

So for voice functions alone, Kinect is worthwhile.

I'm not sure MS needs a Kinect 2, they should just release their own Move Motion and navigation controllers.

[Farmboy12]

Kinect was basically a dance/fitness game peripheral, similar to Rockband and the music genre. Actually, it was cheaper than rockband. Probably a better value.

The lag in both move and kinect are very apparent. The wii motion plus has no lag but requires constant caibration

Move also requires constant recalibraiton.

[MaskOfSkin]

I'm happy with the few shining moments Kinect had with Dance Central, Child of Eden, Gunstringer, ME3 voice commands and Netflix voice control. I'd rather have the Kinect tech in "beta" growing pains at the end of this gen then waste half the next gen learning how to use it.

[Alx]

PSEye has noise cancellation. I'm sure EA didn't implement voice commands because either 1) It was easy to use the Microsoft Voice Recognition API that Kinect provides and/or 2) Microsoft payed them to add "Kinect" functionality.

We don't have much information on the capabilities of the PSEye noise cancellation though... from what I know even games with voice commands like Singstar require that you speak right into the microphone.
Considering the release date of the PSEye compared to that of kinect, and the difficulties that MS had to make voice commands work just in time (see previously linked article), and had to design the mic array with such a large base, I doubt that the mic array in the PSEye could reproduce the same features.
Actually I suspect that those microphones are mainly there because early prototypes of PSMove (according to their patent documents) were supposed to use ultrasonic emitters for localization. It has been removed during the development, but since the PSEye was released earlier, it kept the array that was designed for that use.

[Karak]

Still use mine a ton. Either as voice controller or in the games, either alone or with friends. As visual inputs will always be less accurate than a physical controller thats the main issue.

[R_thanatos]

child of eden , dance central 1 & 2..

as far as i'm aware the rest is either
- not a core game( or a game at all )
- unplyale mess

i'm bored with kinect because i don't feel any physical feedback from it .

[Maastricht]

The lag in both move and kinect are very apparent. The wii motion plus has no lag but requires constant caibration

Move has a response time similar to the Dual Shock. Sure, there may be games using the Move for gesture recognition type stuff, or use smoothing algorithms for cursor movement, but in general there is often no lag and it is as good as or better than Wii Motion Plus, without the need for constant recalibration.

Some games, that take your whole body movement into account with 3D tracking (which Wii Motion Plus can't do), do require you to calibrate each time you start playing simply because it calculates your body dimensions, and some games did lose tracking sometimes, but most games just work, and work really well.

I still see Move as the most hardcore of motion controllers, as many (more) of its games meet the two basic requirements I see hardcore games having:

1. You have instant feedback on your movements
2. Your movements register every time
3. The gameplay has depth and they fall into the 'easy to learn, hard to master' category, though noteworthy is that if anything, they sooner fail the easy to learn part than the hard to master part.

Move Fitness currently probably has some of the best (dual move) tracking, coupled with a smooth 60fps framerate, and the depth and precision is pretty stunning. You should try the boxing, sword, etc. Calibration is also really simple and fast and the tracking is pretty spectacular. Killzone 3 I never played with anything else, Infamous 2 and Festival of Blood are great with it, LBP2 is cool with it, and I still enjoy Sports Champions (sword fighting challenge is very satisfying). As a contrast to Kinect, with the Start the Party fruit ninja minigame being an ultimate example not only for being lag-free, but you can actually catch fruit on the side of your blade, throw it back in the air and then slice it.

Anyway, this topic is about Kinect, and I in general agree with the DF article, although I still think a combination of a better Kinect and something like dual Move could be pretty excellent.

[ASIS]

I wasn't aware something went wrong in the first place.

MS pushed a very strong marketing campaign to put it into people's homes, and the people who purchased it are quite satisfied with it. What went wrong exactly?

[Effect]

requiring a rather gigantic room didn't help

This is the main reason I haven't even attempted to give Kinect a try. I simply don't have the space required to even to get function let alone function well. There are some Wii games that I had to stop playing since space became an issue for me. No more EA Sports Active for example and I was enjoying that.

[dskillzhtown]

Voice commands in apps is mainly what I use my Kinect for these days. I will pop in Kinect Sports 2 every now and then, but I use it for the ESPN and iheartradio apps often. When using my Xbox to view or listen to content and my controller is off or not near me, the Kinect is useful.

Like others, I believe that Kinect 2 will be more accurate and useful in games.

[TTP]

Move also requires constant recalibraiton.

Nope. It re-calibrates itself continuously and autonomously.

[Stumpokapow]

I wasn't aware something went wrong in the first place. MS pushed a very strong marketing campaign to put it into people's homes, and the people who purchased it are quite satisfied with it. What went wrong exactly?

Read the article to discover whether or not your response has anything to do with the article in question. The answer is, in fact, no, your response did not have anything to do with the article. The jumping off point was Koodo saying:

"But at the same time [as opening up gaming to a wider audience] we wanted to give extra fidelity for core gamers. So, simple and approachable, extra fidelity - it seems like opposite things, but those are both things we can do with Project Natal."

Do you feel Kinect has brought extra fidelity to core gamers? They then continue by examining what factors related to Kinect may have made it hard or impossible to do so. They first examine latency in camera technology, then examine how certain pieces of software worked in spite of the latency and what the implications were about gameplay.

They then examined Kinect's second year, from E3 2011 onwards, where they basically say that on the developer side, adoption of Kinect tech in core titles didn't happen. In many cases it was superfluous stuff like Forza 4's car admiring mode.

Koodo then said:

It's great to see stuff showing up in more hardcore genres. And I think the way that people are using it in their experiences really shows the breadth of what Kinect can do.

They examine how what would have been a very high profile core Kinect title, Gears of War: Exile, was cancelled. They talk about development resources for third parties, and how publishers did not or could not devote resources to vibrant core experiences.

They then examine E3 2012 and basically conclude that Fable: The Journey is a less significant title than they would have hoped, Ryse doesn't exist as a product anymore, and no new core experiences were announced. Among third parties, the only core use has been voice controls.

They finally examine the leaked MS roadmap to determine what the future might hold--they note USB controller latency and examine fidelity issues related to the camera resolution, another USB limitation. They seem skeptical about PrimeSense's tech in general.

They then discuss alternate implementations like the Leap, and offer a fairly succinct argument paraphrased from Sony's Richard Marks about the value of controller-free gaming, so as to discuss the argument that perhaps a form of motion control augmented by the sensible use of a controller could be a good thing.

This was not an article about whether Kinect was profitable or not or successful or not. It focuses primarily on the breadth and depth of software support, particularly core software, and Microsoft's original vision for Kinect and core gamers.

[ASIS]

Read the article to discover whether or not your response has anything to do with the article in question. The answer is, in fact, no, your response did not have anything to do with the article. The jumping off point was Koodo saying: Do you feel Kinect has brought extra fidelity to core gamers? They then continue by examining what factors related to Kinect may have made it hard or impossible to do so. They first examine latency in camera technology, then examine how certain pieces of software worked in spite of the latency and what the implications were about gameplay. They then examined Kinect's second year, from E3 2011 onwards, where they basically say that on the developer side, adoption of Kinect tech in core titles didn't happen. In many cases it was superfluous stuff like Forza 4's car admiring mode. Koodo then said: They examine how what would have been a very high profile core Kinect title, Gears of War: Exile, was cancelled. They talk about development resources for third parties, and how publishers did not or could not devote resources to vibrant core experiences. They then examine E3 2012 and basically conclude that Fable: The Journey is a less significant title than they would have hoped, Ryse doesn't exist as a product anymore, and no new core experiences were announced. Among third parties, the only core use has been voice controls. They finally examine the leaked MS roadmap to determine what the future might hold--they note USB controller latency and examine fidelity issues related to the camera resolution, another USB limitation. They seem skeptical about PrimeSense's tech in general. They then discuss alternate implementations like the Leap, and offer a fairly succinct argument paraphrased from Sony's Richard Marks about the value of controller-free gaming, so as to discuss the argument that perhaps a form of motion control augmented by the sensible use of a controller could be a good thing. This was not an article about whether Kinect was profitable or not or successful or not. It focuses primarily on the breadth and depth of software support, particularly core software, and Microsoft's original vision for Kinect and core gamers.

Dammit! It's always the times when I don't read the original article that I sound like an absolute fool, well sorry then.

[mrklaw]

So for voice functions alone, Kinect is worthwhile. I'm not sure MS needs a Kinect 2, they should just release their own Move Motion and navigation controllers.

Except if voice is useful, you could easily release a clip on mic for the Xbox controller, or just have people use a LIVE headset. Seems OTT to use a device with two cameras, one of them depth sensing, which costs a lot of money, as a simple mic.

Anyway, this topic is about Kinect, and I in general agree with the DF article, although I still think a combination of a better Kinect and something like dual Move could be pretty excellent.

If you had an updated pseye with dual move controllers, would you need a depth sensing camera? Isn't the depth sensing so it can detect movement forawrd/back? You could do that with the moves.

[DeaconKnowledge]

Microsoft wanted motion control money, so they jumped on a technology without thinking about its long term gaming applications.

[hoos30]

My daughter and her friends love it.

I like it for "movement" games and the dashboard.

MS needed more 1st party development if they wanted to bring "core" games.

I'm not really seeing the "fail" part.

[.la1n]

One of the few very good games on the Kinect.

Agreed. Let's hope Crimson Dragon turns out as good.

[OldJadedGamer]

My neices and nephews love playing it when they come over and my girlfriend loves the games like Fruit Ninja and Dance Central. In my house its been very used. I personally don't use it on my own but everyone else likes it.

Look up the IGN review of Double Fine Happy Action Theater where he gets the kids to do the review. From a hardcore gamer POV it is a failure but for everyone else in my experience it has been a success.

[jayb]

the biggest problem I have with Kinect is the lag. At least with Move (specifically sports champions table tenis and Start the Party) there is zero discernible lag.

[Alx]

This was not an article about whether Kinect was profitable or not or successful or not. It focuses primarily on the breadth and depth of software support, particularly core software, and Microsoft's original vision for Kinect and core gamers.

On that specific point we're just assuming that there was a vision for "Kinect and core gamers" though... sure there were declarations like the one quoted in the article, but those are just words to calm down the vocal public that wants all the attention (aka GAF), while the real objective is somewhere else.
Natal/Kinect was never intended to be played in a COD game or anything similar, because there's no need for that : pad controls work fine for those games, and the Xbox already captured that audience, so why try changing anything ?
The first thing they said when announcing the device is that game pads were daunting to many people. The Natal videos were all about games based on simple fun (fighting, racing, minigames, dancing,...), which doesn't mean they don't require skill (I'm repeating myself, but try passing a song in master difficulty in Rhythm Party, and tell me again it's for casuals...), and of course general interface features.

[Stumpokapow]

On that specific point we're just assuming that there was a vision for "Kinect and core gamers" though... sure there were declarations like the one quoted in the article, but those are just words to calm down the vocal public that wants all the attention (aka GAF), while the real objective is somewhere else. Natal/Kinect was never intended to be played in a COD game or anything similar, because there's no need for that : pad controls work fine for those games, and the Xbox already captured that audience, so why try changing anything ? The first thing they said when announcing the device is that game pads were daunting to many people. The Natal videos were all about games based on simple fun (fighting, racing, minigames, dancing,...), which doesn't mean they don't require skill (I'm repeating myself, but try passing a song in master difficulty in Rhythm Party, and tell me again it's for casuals...), and of course general interface features.

Even if you concede that they didn't intend to use Kinect to make core titles (and I actually disagree with you--Ryse, the original pitch for Fable 3, Fable: The Journey, Gears of War: Exile--it's pretty obvious that at some point or other they had invested pretty significant resources into the use of Kinect for core titles), and even if you concede that Kudo was just BSing the press with that stuff, the article still works as an examination of what happened even without the title or the perception that Microsoft failed in one of their objectives.

[border]

That sounds like a huge bias from the author. Dance and fitness may not have been too common in video games until now, but they're a big part of our culture and society (fitness since at least the 60s, dance since forever). I don't think they're going anywhere now.

That's like saying that Guitar Hero isn't a fad because we've had rock music since the 60's. Dance/fitness titles are on the same trajectory as music games -- they will probably always be around in some form, but their time has passed.

[ghibli99]

Subpar tech, no tactile feedback (big one for me), bulky (you can't easily mount it above/below your TV like you can a Wii sensor bar), only Kinect game anyone cares about is Dance Central, it's an add-on peripheral, wrong demographic (not the Wii audience), etc. Too many cons, too few pros.

[TheRagnCajun]

It just lacked innovative software like Milo & Kate. That could've really showed off the capabilities of the device, but Microsoft didn't want to take further risks and just released some clones of successful Wii software. Milo looked impressive, but well, it was not casual multiplayer-fest nor a FPS, thus it was abandoned, right?

Pretty sure it was abandoned because it was a pipedream.

Molyneux is good for creating buzz and getting people excited about possibilities. In practice his games always fall short of his ambitions. Milo is an extremism of this, something far harder to achieve, and looks much less like a game. To call it a risk would be an understatement.

[Valjean Lafitte]

I Milo looked impressive, but well, it was not casual multiplayer-fest nor a FPS, thus it was abandoned, right?

I was going to say Milo was abandoned because it was pedophile bait a creepy child simulator and not even a game, but your theory sounds much better.

[heckmanimation]

i dont own a kinect, but from what I read it seems nothign really went wrong...yes it was overhyped (as is all tech, esp if brand new) but it is in it's first incarnation. It has plenty of potential and i'm sure Kinect2 will be much better. An maybe by Kinect3 it will actually be sufficient enough to live up to the hype!

[onQ123]

nothing went wrong with Kinect it's doing exactly what Microsoft wanted it today become a media controller to help them bring Windows to the living room without the need of KB&M.

[Alx]

and even if you concede that Kudo was just BSing the press with that stuff, the article still works as an examination of what happened even without the title or the perception that Microsoft failed in one of their objectives.

I acknowledge the point of the article on "core gamers" expectations and kinect not meeting them... the only thing with which I don't really agree (besides a few technical details), is that something "happened" or "went wrong", when I think they just followed the plan where "traditional core gaming" never was an important part ; it always was a second thought at best, and "gesture gaming" (which could be "core" too, or not) a good opportunity to use and spread the device.