[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Two different articles first on Syrian defectors claim that Assad will use and may have already used CW. Second is an op ed about deployment being skewed for deployment vs force protection.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-18864629

Syria: Assad regime 'ready to use chemical weapons' The most senior Syrian politician to defect to the opposition has told the BBC the regime will not hesitate to use chemical weapons if it is cornered. Nawaf Fares, ex-ambassador to Iraq, said unconfirmed reports indicated such weapons might have already been used. He also said that major bombings across Syria had been orchestrated by the regime in collaboration with al-Qaeda.

Now this report is claiming that Syrian CW is being deployed in attack vs loss prevention setup.
http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/NG17Ak02.html

HONOLULU, Hawaii - Reports out of the Middle East suggest the Assad regime has removed chemical weapons from their main depots, triggering speculation that Damascus may be considering their use against the rebellion sweeping across that country. Washington has warned the regime against doing so but some Middle Eastern sources say the move was intended to protect them from possible seizure by rebel elements. However, Sky News reported on Saturday that "intelligence sources," claimed the weapons had been moved to the Homs Region. Homs is both the center and primary recruiting ground of the current anti-regime rebellion and where military forces of current Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's father killed thousands during a previous Sunni-based uprising against the regime. If Sky News' sources are accurate, the weapons are being positioned for potential use against the rebels. Militaries trying to prevent a system's capture, move them away from enemy lines, not towards them. That probably explains Washington's warning the regime against using chemical weapons on the rebels. China, Iran and Russia have remained silent but any Syrian employment of chemical weapons would be a major embarrassment for those governments, whose support has sustained the regime throughout the fighting and in China's and Russia's case, prevented unified international action against Damascus.

Haven't found the Sky Source mentioned in the second piece yet.

[NotTheGuyYouKill]

You asked what makes a civil war illegal?

This makes it illegal.

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

You asked what makes a civil war illegal? This makes it illegal.

Syria never signed the Chemical Weapon Ban Treaty...now I don't doubt they will use them against civilians vs military force, but theoretically, they could use them again military forces.

[Moral Panic]

BBC Article.

Syria: Assad regime 'ready to use chemical weapons' The most senior Syrian politician to defect to the opposition has told the BBC the regime will not hesitate to use chemical weapons if it is cornered. Nawaf Fares, ex-ambassador to Iraq, said unconfirmed reports indicated such weapons might have already been used. He also said that major bombings across Syria had been orchestrated by the regime in collaboration with al-Qaeda.

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

BBC Article.

Thanks!

[Bolshevik]

Syria never signed the Chemical Weapon Ban Treaty...now I don't doubt they will use them against civilians vs military force, but theoretically, they could use them again military forces.

Lol, like a treaty would stop them. Treaties are only followed when it's convienent for a country to do so. Ever heard of the Kellogg-Briand Pact? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kellogg...%93Briand_Pact

[Osiris]

Important question, what do they mean by "chemical weapons", what specific weapon are they talking about?

For example, would the use of "white phosphorus" be considered the use of CW?

(Oh Yes, I'm going there)

[maquiladora]

I really doubt he would use chemical weapons at this stage.

[Nevasleep]

BBC Article.

I'd say that as well if I were a top official who defected, looking for a nice job in the new government.

Also 'removed chemical weapons out of their main depots', so they haven't got any?....
but there is evidence that Syria has and is producing chemical weapons, so it's probably true.

[Stinkles]

I really doubt he would use chemical weapons at this stage.

HE might want to, but no General who values his life or livelihood is going to agree to press a button. It would accelerate the Assad regime's already inevitable demise.

[thefit]

Important question, what do they mean by "chemical weapons", what specific weapon are they talking about? For example, would the use of "white phosphorus" be considered the use of CW? (Oh Yes, I'm going there)

It is unless u call them "flares"

[maquiladora]

Important question, what do they mean by "chemical weapons", what specific weapon are they talking about? For example, would the use of "white phosphorus" be considered the use of CW? (Oh Yes, I'm going there)

Could be Sarin, Mustard Gas, Tabun etc. I don't think any report says exactly which.


As for White Phosphorus : http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_p...ry_regulations

[Kenshin001]

Sounds like Iraq all over again, chemical weapons, Al Qaeda etc.

Have they linked Assad to 911 yet?

Sorry Syrian people, your country is not a major oil exporter.

[Zzoram]

BBC Article.

Defectors have a huge incentive to just say what the US wants to hear in order to trade that information for immunity and a cushy pension and relocation.

I'm pretty sure that's how the US ended up in Iraq. The Bush administration wanted to hear something, and some Iraqis said it in exchange for a cushy life in the US.

There better be more evidence than just the word of a defector.

[Manos: The Hans of Fate]

Important question, what do they mean by "chemical weapons", what specific weapon are they talking about? For example, would the use of "white phosphorus" be considered the use of CW? (Oh Yes, I'm going there)

WP is not a chemical weapon, it's just napalm in a can!

To answer your question, I heard mustard gas and VX mentioned a lot.

This report may be of some use in that area.
http://www.dni.gov/reports/2009_721_Report.pdf

[Ravensmash]

Defectors have a huge incentive to just say what the US wants in order to gain immunity and a cushy pension and relocation. I'm pretty sure that's how the US ended up in Iraq. The Bush administration wanted to hear something, and some Iraqis were willing to say it in exchange for a cushy life in the US. There better be more evidence than just the word of a defector.

You make it sound as though the US/NATO are rushing in to Syria.

Edit: But yes, I agree that the evidence of a few defectors is not concrete enough.

[maquiladora]

Defectors have a huge incentive to just say what the US wants to hear in order to trade that information for immunity and a cushy pension and relocation. I'm pretty sure that's how the US ended up in Iraq. The Bush administration wanted to hear something, and some Iraqis said it in exchange for a cushy life in the US. There better be more evidence than just the word of a defector.

It all started with a Wall Street Journal story a few days ago:

WASHINGTON—Syria has begun moving parts of its vast arsenal of chemical weapons out of storage facilities, U.S. officials said, in a development that has alarmed many in Washington.

The Obama administration has begun to hold classified briefings about the new intelligence. U.S. officials are particularly worried about Syria's stocks of sarin gas, the deadly and versatile nerve agent. The officials wouldn't say where weapons have been moved.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000...596963194.html

CNN then seemed to get the story confirmed for their own sources. Suggesting that it was satellite surveillance of movement of weapons from storage igloos and communication intercepts that prompted this:

(CNN) -- The United States believes Syria has moved "some" chemical weapons in recent days, a U.S. official told CNN on Friday. The stockpile is believed to be is under the control of regime forces, the source said. The official, who would only speak anonymously because the source was speaking about intelligence matters, said the reason behind the movement is unclear. The source could not say what types of chemical stockpiles were involved or how much was moved. The United States has had satellite surveillance of Syria's key weapons sites since the unrest began. But it's also likely some of the information came from communications intercepts based on conversations CNN has had with other sources knowledgeable about this matter. Possible reasons for the move could range from whether it was to better protect the material from the fighting of the spreading revolt in Syria or more ominously to use against the population, the sources said. The Wall Street Journal was first to report the suspicion.

http://edition.cnn.com/2012/07/13/wo...ons/index.html

[MIMIC]

Defectors have a huge incentive to just say what the US wants to hear in order to trade that information for immunity and a cushy pension and relocation. I'm pretty sure that's how the US ended up in Iraq. The Bush administration wanted to hear something, and some Iraqis said it in exchange for a cushy life in the US. There better be more evidence than just the word of a defector.

The difference here is that Syria is purportedly planning to use the weapons on its own people, whereas Iraq was being depicted as a country that planned to use WMD against U.S. interests (allowing Bush to go forth with his "pre-emptive strike" crap). In this instance, involvement is considerably less likey, IMO.

And agree that the word of defectors should be taken with a grain of salt because they have huge incentives to lie.