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Member
(08-21-2012, 08:40 PM)
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Vita Lifetime Sales Prediction Thread
#1
Instead of the usual bickering and subjective "WELL I LIKE/HATE HARDWARE/GAME X/PSN!" it would be good have a simple thread where people can post their predictions.
Criteria: Lifetime = 5years in this case Post a HIGH, PROBABLE, LOW value and move on. Think of it as a NPD predictions thread. Keep it simple and leave the fluff out. There are PLENTY of other threads where you can argue to your hearts desire. Perhaps we can revisit it every year to see how sales are trending. These are WW. Mine: HIGH = 30million PROBABLE = 22million LOW = 10million |
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JJ's Glory Hole!
(08-21-2012, 08:45 PM)
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#7
This won't end well.
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The 'H' stands for hentai.
(08-21-2012, 08:45 PM)
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#8
HIGH: 25.14 million
REALISTIC: 18.86 million LOW: 14.45 million The high assumes that over the course of 5 years, that 419,000 units are sold every month. The realistic assumes that over the course of 5 years that 314,000 units are sold every month. The low assumes that over the course of 5 years 240,000 units are sold every month. Note that it is an AVERAGE, which means that the numbers should be lower than average in the summer lulls and it should be much higher during the holiday season (example: 200k in all territories in summer, but 800k in all territories in Christmas season). It also means that sales average should be higher in the midlife (years 2-3) than the end of life (year 4-5). I would LOVE to be wrong and the final numbers are much higher, but it will be fun seeing how it tracks relative to my estimation.
Last edited by Hcoregamer00; 08-21-2012 at 08:59 PM.
Reason: Added some justification
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(08-21-2012, 08:48 PM)
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#12
Originally Posted by RukusProvider:
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Member
(08-21-2012, 08:49 PM)
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#14
Within just the next 5 years?
I'd say: High - 45M Med - 25M Low - 15M I don't see Sony walking away from it particularly soon when the R&D costs are already sunk into it and unlike SEGA there won't be the threat of bankruptcy to force them into shutting it down. |
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Member
(08-21-2012, 09:10 PM)
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#40
Well let's calculate this out somewhat.
It's sold 2.2 million so far. It's selling about 10k per week in Japan, which is 520k per year. Somewhere from 50 to 80k per month in the US, which is 600k to 960k per year. I have no perspective on sales in the rest of the world, so we'll just say it's equal to the US amount among all other markets too. Assuming nothing changes and it continues selling at about this rate, some highs, some lows, but same average for 5 years... 2,200,000 + 5(2(600,000) + 520,000) = 10,800,000 units 2,200,000 + 5(2(960,000) + 520,000) = 14,400,000 units I'll call that low and just add 2 million to each of those figures for the other two predictions, I guess. High = 14.8 to 18.4 million Probable = 12.8 to 16.4 million Low = 10.8 to 14.4 million |
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Member
(08-21-2012, 09:16 PM)
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#45
Originally Posted by frankie_baby:
High: 45 million Probable: 22 million Low: 14 million It'll at least plod on throughout 2013 with a price cut. |
