[Relaxed Muscle]

High=PS3
Probable=GC
Low=Dreamcast

[Stephen Colbert]

Not debating they talk crap sometimes, just that this kind of reply isn't always BS, as they've proven last two years.

I'm simply saying statements made by companies in regards to price cuts are worthless. Historically, they've all lied repeatedly about price cuts, and for good reason. They lose money and gain nothing in return by admitting to a price cut prematurely.

And you guys are being to quick too rule out the Vita. It's internals are perfect for a smartphone. And a carrier/contract subsidized Vita phone for free is all that is required for the Vita's sales to skyrocket.

Something sexy like this...



but with nubs similar to this...



From a business standpoint, this makes a lot of sense.

For Sony...

Entering the smartphone market is EXTREMELY lucrative. The most Sony can charge for the Vita is $249. Apple gets $700 from AT&T for every phone that consumers buy from them for $200. A portable Vita Phone is more likely to sell to casual gamers that might not be interested in a big bulky Vita. So there's a lot of money to be made selling games to these customers that Sony normally can't reach.

For Consumers...

Lots of people prefer all in one devices. I only have so much room in my pocket. Between my keys, wallet, cell phone, camera etc, there really isn't any room for another portable device. This is why I rarely have my 3DS or Vita with me when I'm out of the house, where as I always have my 4.3 inch screen smartphone with me, and do my outdoor gaming on that, out of neccessity.

Also, consumers can get a better deal thanks to subsidies. I'm not looking forward to plopping down $250 for a Vita, and when I do, I'm going to have to justify that purchase to others in the family. But buying a cellphone every 1.5 years is seen as a neccessity. I always sell my old cellphone on ebay for $300, and use that money towards getting my new smartphone, and my family is always happy about it.

More and more teens are getting Smartphones. And many of those same teens would jump at the chance to get a Vita Phone rather than a traditional smartphone. Their parents wouldn't think twice about it either if they get the phone for free or $99.

Meanwhile, Sony could well sell their Vita Phone for a price of $99, or even for free, and still rake in far more cash than what they can charge for the PSP2. Sony could even give away Vita Phone's for free, and they would still be getting $400-500 from the cellphone carriers (that's how much apple is getting in exchange for the two year contracts), far more than Sony gets for the Vita. Which would you have an easier time justifying to yourself? Buying a $250 Vita, or getting a Vita Phone for free when your contract runs out.


A subsidized Vita Phone for free would cause Vita's sales to surge signfiicantly while still netting Sony a cool $300-400 per device.

[OmegaTreeFish]

Five years is a long time. The 3DS sold only a few million as well (over the same period as the Vita) until they dropped the price from $250 to the key under $200 mark. Don't rule out a price cut for the Vita before christmas. Sony/MS/Nintendo's statements in regards to price cuts/hardware revisions historically meant exactly jack shit. Sony/MS/Nintendo all have a long and consistent history of lying about upcoming price cuts. The decision to cut the price may not have been made yet, but I could see that decision being made by Sept or Oct in order to salvage the Vita. With a price cut this christmas, and maybe a Vita Phone around this time next year, I could see the Vita's sales skyrocketing.... In regards to a Vita Phone, something like this is a no brainer for Sony... or atleast this... From a business standpoint, this makes a lot of sense. For Sony... Entering the smartphone market is EXTREMELY lucrative. The most Sony can charge for the Vita is $249. Apple gets $700 from AT&T for every phone that consumers buy from them for $200. Imagine how much tech Sony can pack into the PSP Phone and still rake in a massive profit with prices like that. In addition, the PSP Phone is more likely to sell to casual gamers that might not be interested in a big bulky PSP2. So there's a lot of money to be made selling games to these customers that Sony normally can't reach. For Consumers... Lots of people prefer all in one devices. I only have so much room in my pocket. Between my keys, wallet, cell phone, camera etc, there really isn't any room for another portable device. This is why I rarely have my DS or PSP with me when I'm out of the house, where as I always have my iPhone with me, and do my outdoor gaming on that, out of neccesity. Also, consumers can get a better deal thanks to subsidies. I'm not looking forward to plopping down $300 on a PSP2, and when I do, I'm going to have to justify that purchase to my wife. But buying a cellphone every 1.5 years is seen as a neccessity. I always sell my old cellphone on ebay for $300, and use that money towards getting my new smartphone, and my wife is always happy about it. Meanwhile, Sony could well sell their Vita Phone for a price of $99, or even for free, and still rake in far more cash than what they can charge for the PSP2. Sony could give away Vita Phone's for free, and they would still be getting $400-500 from the cellphone carriers (that's how much apple is getting in exchange for the two year contracts), far more than they get for the Vita. Which would you have an easier time justifying to yourself? Buying a $250 Vita, or getting a Vita Phone for free when your contract runs out. A subsidized Vita Phone for $99 or free is all it would take for Vita's sales to surge signfiicantly.

All you would have to sacrifice for this is
• decent battery life
• decent sized screen
• decent analogue sticks
• comfortable to use

Yeah no thanks. Also why would directly competing with the likes of apple be a good idea? It would be an even more niche product than the vita currently is.

Edit.
The vita competes more with the tablet market really. my smart phone is great for what I use it for, including games to kill a some time while I'm out but I like my vita as a device that is a lot mor comfortable to use and a lot more able for when I'm chilling at home or away on holiday. If it runs out of powe it's not a problem. However if your phone runs out of juice.... Problem.

It's just not a good idea.

[olubode]

It's almost as if once a product sells to almost everyone who wanted, fewer people buy it.

Except the problem with that infamous gif was these were installed base sales. iSuppli predicted that in 2011, the installed base of Wii's would shrink.

[Mercutio]

Except the problem with that infamous gif was these were installed base sales. iSuppli predicted that in 2011, the installed base of Wii's would shrink.

People also seem to think that image is current. iSuppli made that in 2008. It doesn't even remotely resemble reality. I guess they thought the markets would REALLY crash?

[Stephen Colbert]

All you would have to sacrifice for this is • decent battery life • decent sized screen • decent analogue sticks • comfortable to use Yeah no thanks. Also why would directly competing with the likes of apple be a good idea? It would be an even more niche product than the vita currently is.

Not in the least.

The current Vita is built on a 40nm chip. 22nm is right around the corner. A Vita Phone with a 28 or 22nm chip would be fairly small, and get excellent battery life. It's size and shape would be pretty similar to the PSP Go/Xperia Play.

Most smartphones, including the upcoming iPhone have 4" to 4.3" screen. That's more than adequate a size for a Vita Phone's screen. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the PSP's screen was 4.3" and no one ever claimed it was too small. Hell the 3DS's top screen is only 3.5" and the DS's top screen was even smaller.

Yes, they would have to swap the analog sticks with analog nubs similar to the one on the 3DS, but no one is complaining about the 3DS's nub.

It's design would be pretty much identical to the PSP Go but with more comforable nubs. And most everyone that used the PSP Go agreed it's comfortable and portable as hell.

[shinshero]

Low: 22M
Probable: 45M
High: 80M

[Frillen]

HIGH = 50million
PROBABLE = 30million
LOW = 10million

[Mercutio]

It's design would be pretty much identical to the PSP Go but with a more comforable nub. And everyone that used the PSP Go agrees it's comfortable as hell.

Man, the Go was my favorite version of any Playstation Portable device, but I would NOT agree that it was a comfort first thing. That's just not true. I had a friend who couldn't even play it because his hands cramped so badly.

[KalBalboa]

Do you really expect it to sell 2.8 units in the holiday season?

I wouldn't bet money on it, but considering it hasn't had a western Christmas season yet combined with the pack-ins, cross-play, and its strong lineup for the end of the year, I think it could sell another 2 million by 2013, sure.

Lifetime? It's too early to say, I think. This year will be telling for the Vita, but if I had to ballpark it I'd guess somewhere around 15 million, lifetime.

[jono51]

Low: 7m
Probable: 20m
High 35m+

[OmegaTreeFish]

Not in the least. The current Vita is built on 40nm. 22nm is right around the corner. A 22nm or 28nm Vita Phone could be fairly small, and get excellent battery life. Most smartphones, including the upcoming iPhone have 4" to 4.3" screen. That's more than adequate a size for a Vita Phone's screen. Correct me if I'm wrong but I believe the PSP's screen was 4.3" and no one ever claimed it was too small. Hell the 3DS's top screen is only 3.5" and the DS's top screen was even smaller. Yes, they would have to swap the analog sticks with analog nubs similar to the one on the 3DS, but no one is complaining about the 3DS's nub. It's design would be pretty much identical to the PSP Go but with a more comforable nub. And everyone that used the PSP Go agrees it's comfortable as hell.

Batterys in current phones would drain so damn fast trying to run vita games. Il just agree to disagree with you on all your points. Nubs would be horrid. Smaller form factor would be less comfortable. Smaller screen would be worse as vitas screen is just the right size. I also wouldn't want it if it was a phone because of all these issues.

People do have room for more than one device as well. That's why people have smartphones and tablets.

People make the assumption that portable consoles are for people who want to carry it in there pocket and play when they have 5 mins to kill. In reality there are tons of people like me who almost always play it at home. Stops me being chained to the tv which is awesome for many reasons. My smart phone is my 5 mins to kill machine. My vita isn't. If I had a long commute I'd take my vita in my bag. No need to have it in my pocket.

Anyway. We clearly have differencing opinions here. I really don't think a vita phone would sell. People wouldn't swap there iPhones for one.

[flippymittens]

Less than the psp I would imagine.

I think the device might move 40 million but I am being kind of optimistic.

[Atmej]

I've made a fun chart for this thread:

This reminds me of this chart from IDC from May 2008.


HIGH = 50million
PROBABLE = 40.4million
LOW = 22million

[Stephen Colbert]

Batterys in current phones would drain so damn fast trying to run vita games. Il just agree to disagree with you on all your points. Nubs would be horrid. Smaller form factor would be less comfortable. Smaller screen would be worse as vitas screen is just the right size. I also wouldn't want it if it was a phone because of all these issues. People do have room for more than one device as well. That's why people have smartphones and tablets. People make the assumption that portable consoles are for people who want to carry it in there pocket and play when they have 5 mins to kill. In reality there are tons of people like me who almost always play it at home. Stops me being chained to the tv which is awesome for many reasons. My smart phone is my 5 mins to kill machine. My vita isn't. If I had a long commute I'd take my vita in my bag. No need to have it in my pocket. Anyway. We clearly have differencing opinions here. I really don't think a vita phone would sell. People wouldn't swap there iPhones for one.

You do realize that proccesing power use is heavily dependent on the nm of the chip right? A 22 nm chip uses roughly 1/4th the power of a 40nm chip. The Vita SoC made at 22nm would consume about a 1/4th the power of teh current Vita's SoC.

If nubs are so damn uncomfortable, why are the tens of millions of 3DS owners happy with the one on the 3DS?

And people want super portable phones are what people want, then why are large phones with 4-4.3 inch screens all the craze right now?

It's not me disagreeing with your claims. It's the market that's already proven your claims wrong. Yes, consumers are fine with nubs similar to the one on the 3DS and yes, consumers are fine with larger phones with 4.3 inch screens.

...it's the screen on phones that sucks up all the battery. The chip would make a negligible difference. A Vita phone would have horrid battery life unless it was a giant brick. What OS would this phone run?

The die shrink would actually save a ton of battery life. As for the screens current smartphones with 4.3 inch more battery draining lcd screens get plenty of battery life. Why would a 4-4.3 inch power saving oled screen get any less than them?

As for the OS, the Vita's current OS is actually excellent, would just need a phone and texting app and it would be a great phone OS. They could go with a heavily modified version of Andriod Jellybean, but I would prefer it run the current Vita OS as it runs extremely well, much better than most Andriod devices I've used

[Mercutio]

You do realize that proccesing power use is heavily dependent on the nm of the chip right? A 22 nm chip uses roughly 1/4th the power of a 40nm chip. The Vita SoC made at 22nm would consume about a 1/4th the power of teh current Vita's SoC. If nubs are so damn uncomfortable, why are the tens of millions of 3DS owners happy with the one on the 3DS?

I'm relatively convinced you're the real Stephen Colbert, and your videogame related posts are part of the extensive act.

[Alebrije]

Deacon. Would you please use the format?

Not the thread for this...

Hard to keep this kind of rules on GAF : )

[Kusagari]

The 3DS experienced a similar turn around after it's price cut.

You do realize what a misnomer comparing 3DS sales pre-price cut to the Vita's current anemic sales are right?

[Beysus]

~45mln in the end.

[YoungOne]

I think sony can maybe turn it around, wasn't it said the ps3 was going to be the dreamcast 2.0 during 2006-2007?

[IdreamofHIME]

Only about 25 million unless it's hacked to hell or some major exclusive IP comes along.

[Pepboy]

High = 40M
Probable = 30M
Low = 20M

[Ollie Pooch]

You do realize that proccesing power use is heavily dependent on the nm of the chip right? A 22 nm chip uses roughly 1/4th the power of a 40nm chip. The Vita SoC made at 22nm would consume about a 1/4th the power of teh current Vita's SoC. If nubs are so damn uncomfortable, why are the tens of millions of 3DS owners happy with the one on the 3DS? And people want super portable phones are what people want, then why are large phones with 4-4.3 inch screens all the craze right now? It's not me disagreeing with your claims. It's the market that's already proven your claims wrong. Yes, consumers are fine with nubs similar to the one on the 3DS and yes, consumers are fine with larger phones with 4.3 inch screens.

Like I said earlier replying to your same post in the other thread, it's the screen on phones that sucks up all the battery. The chip would make a negligible difference. A Vita phone would have horrid battery life unless it was a giant brick. What OS would this phone run?

[Jinfash]

Oh what the heck, I'll take swing at this dead horse.

If things continue deteriorating the way they are, I predict in the next 5 years:
HIGH: 24 million
PROBABLE: 12 million
LOW: 5 million

[shinra-bansho]

A more apt comparison than the 3DS would probably be the PS3.

Average quarterly sales at entry price:
$499 - 1.38M (4Qs)
$399 - 2.61M (7Qs)
$299 - 3.5M (8Qs)
$249 - 4.03M (3Qs)

Pre-Slim LTD = 23.8M (11Qs)
Post-Slim Sales = 40.1M (11Qs)

Can Sony turn it around? Who knows.

OT: I'd hazard to guess, before a Western holiday season and/or Sony actually does anything that shows they accept something needs to be done.

[ohlawd]

High: GC
Probable: DC-GC
Low: DC

[Narcosis]

High: 10 million
Probable: 6 million
Low: 4 million

[H_Prestige]

4

[evangd007]

More than Dreamcast, less than Gamecube.

It's not in a good place and I don't know what Sony can do to turn sales around in an appreciable manner.

[Skyzard]

Market it like they should - 35 million.

Otherwise - 15 million, anything below that would be lower then it should ever get for 5 years of sales.

I think the vita will have more of an effect on xbox360 and ps3 sales then 3ds sales, unlike 24FrameDaVinci's interesting graph shows ;) (if the marketing is done as I hope, otherwise we're going to be looking at a pretty kiddy vita in a few years)

[Mr Swine]

High: 35 million
Probable: 24 million
Low: 15 million

[PhoReal]

Market it like they should - 35 million. Otherwise - 15 million, anything below that would be lower then it should ever get for 5 years of sales. I think the vita will have more of an effect on xbox360 and ps3 sales then 3ds sales (if the marketing is done as I hope, otherwise we're going to be looking at a pretty kiddy vita in a few years)

How did you come to this conclusion?

[Skyzard]

By carrying on targeting young adult gamers and pressing the selling point of handheld console-gaming as opposed to competing with the market of parents with active tots, of course. - which as I said, is what I hoped as opposed to the alternative...which sony has only hinted at thus far really. Less of a conclusion and more of a comment on 24FrameDaVinci's graph btw (edited that in too late).

[IrishNinja]

With a price cut this christmas, and maybe a Vita Phone around this time next year, I could see the Vita's sales skyrocketing.

i have no idea why anyone ever replies to your posts

oh god now i'm dumb too

[GavinGT]

I think 20 million is the absolute ceiling for this device.

[Dreams-Visions]

High: 35M
Probable?: 19.5M
Low: 10M

[Data Elemental]

High: 19M
Probable: 14M
Low: 8M

But who knows what will happen. Five years are a long time for hardware.

[grimshawish]

High = 30m - this is assuming Sony change tact to the extreme.
Probable = 3.5m - ...sorry team...this is 'probable' to current path.
Low = 2.6m - Vita struggles to make any real sales, only hitting about 30,000 WW a month, this slowly falls. No boost over Christmas. Shops stop selling them, Sony still support through PSN.

[Pikma]

I don't think the Vita's problem is the lack of "phone", but the lack of games, I mean, if they make a Vita phone, people will use it to play... android games? PS1 games? Xperia does it already. Also, by blurring the line between full games and cheap/free one-minute games, full titles would lose all of their impact, if nobody buys them right now, even less people would pay $49.99 for them when they can keep playing $2.99 games. Sony needs to make the Vita something different, it needs to offer an experience that you wouldn't find anywhere else, and that includes PS3, they really need to separate the products.

And just so the OP doesn't get mad at me again, I'll throw my bone:

High: 40 Million.
Probably: 25-30 million.
Low: 15 million.

[haadim]

HIGH = 40 million
PROBABLE = 30 million
LOW = 20 million

[Empowe]

Low: Enough to reach the roof of your place of residence when stacked.
Probable: Enough to reach the moon.
High: Enough to reach the next galaxy.

[Aostia]

High=55 mil
Probable=40 mil
Low=25 mil

[Currygan]

HIGH: 35 M
PROBABLE: 20 M
LOW: 9 M

[DOA]

take 3DS sales and divide by 3 = result

[Fisico]

HIGH : 45 Millions

PROBABLE : 30 Millions

LOW : 15 Millions

[GoofsterStud]

Defiantly less than the Dreamcast...

I'd guess between 2x and 3x what it really is now. There is just to much negative press... Sony closing studios developing for Vita... Who is going to want to develop for the system. It doesn't have the Sega games the Dreamcast had to keep a study momentum.

[Box of Bunnies]

Low: 5 Million
Probable: 10 Million
High: 15 Million