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electroplankton
Banned
(12-28-2012, 10:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by Man God

MGS 3 actually has some rather large areas.

The question is: did you play Dragon Quest VIII? If so, you can understand that those games are hardly comparable.
extralite
Member
(12-28-2012, 10:23 PM)
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Originally Posted by thestopsign

Not sure if this info is up elsewhere, but could you post the list?

No idea if it's up somewhere, I check it my 3DS when I need the info. Currently the これまでに売れたソフト (Software sales up to now) set to 3DS download soft gives the following list:

1. Tobidase Doubutsu no Mori
2. Pokemon AR Searcher
3. Denpa Ningen no RPG
4. 3D Classics Hoshi no Kirby Yume no izumi no monogatari
5. Ikimono-zukuri Creatoy
6. Pokemon Zengoku Zukan Pro
7. Hiku osu
8. Denpa Ningen no RPG 2
9. @SIMPLE DL Series Vol. 1 THE Misshitsu kara no dasshutsu
10. Touch Battle Sensha 3D
11. NSMB2
12. 3D Classics Xevious
13. The Rolling Western
14. Hyu~suton
15. Hirari Sakura Samurai
16. @SIMPLE DL Series Vol. 2 THE Misshitsu kara no dasshutsu gakkou no kyuukousha-hen
17. Love Plus Tools
18. @SIMPLE DL Series Vol. 3 THE Misshitsu kara no dasshutsu Celeb no goukatei-hen
19. ARC STYLE: Sakka-!!3D
20. Okiraku Tennis 3D
electroplankton
Banned
(12-28-2012, 10:26 PM)
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Animal Crossing eShop sales must be very high if they already overcame Pokémon Radar sales.
hardcastlemccormick
Member
(12-28-2012, 10:36 PM)
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Originally Posted by Little Green Yoda

There were a few posters trying to guesstimate software sales in the last NPD thread based on Miiverse posts. Which is horribly unscientific since you can post in a community without owning the game and because not everybody who owns the game posts on Miiverse.

Found it. Well, I suppose throwing numbers together to see if there's correlation is silly, but it's not like they were considered serious. But you know those Nintendo fans, they are such hypocrites.

Originally Posted by electroplankton

I thought this was a thread for Japanese sales...

Try to follow the conversation, would you?
Last edited by hardcastlemccormick; 12-28-2012 at 10:43 PM.
electroplankton
Banned
(12-28-2012, 10:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by hardcastlemccormick

Found it. Well, I suppose throwing numbers together to see if there's correlation is silly, but it's not like they were considered serious. But you know those Nintendo fans, they are such hypocrites.

I thought this was a thread for Japanese sales...

Originally Posted by hardcastlemccormick

But you know those Nintendo fans, they are such hypocrites.

And the name of the poster who brought this up was ...


The 70K came from Iwata saying first week sales were 800K for AC, and people taking the difference between Famitsu/MC to determine download card sales. However, saying that because ~9% of 1st week sales were eShop DLs that we should use that in the current tally would be wrong, but we also don't see anyone doing that. The 70K for first week is fine, though, as long as you know where it's from.

We also know that there were ~25-30K of digital sales for Gravity Daze, at one point.

The problem comes in when trying to apply these data points to the larger market. I think we've done a good job keeping that from happening in the MC threads, though.
BKK
Member
(12-29-2012, 12:35 AM)
So what I would like to know from the people who consider that the home console market is continuously in decline in Japan, what happens to the portable market this gen?

23m home consoles last gen (maybe can end up at 25m)
52m portable consoles (may end up a million or more too)

With PSV supposedly screwed can we expect 3DS to make up the difference, or are we looking towards a massive collapse in the market?

But maybe hardware numbers are distorted?

Japan traditionaly has a terrible attach rate compared to other countries, maybe that is due to multiple console ownership? Can we still see the same software sales with less hardware ownership? Or are we facing a massive collapse in the Japanese market?
Kandinsky
Member
(12-29-2012, 12:41 AM)
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Originally Posted by thehypocrite

True, it's funny how they even use Miiverse posts as a reference for sales. When posters claimed that Vita titles may have 10% in digital sales they were attacked for making up numbers, now you have those same posters doing that and more, like poetry, full circle.

Name names son.
BKK
Member
(12-29-2012, 12:50 AM)
There came a point when people stopped pointing out the PS3 was outselling 360 20 to 1 and just accepted that 360 was a niche platform. How long until everyone just accepts that with regards to PSV and 3DS?
Hero of Legend
Member
(12-29-2012, 12:58 AM)
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So anyone know the roles of Level 5 and Brownie Brown had in Fantasy Life? To me it looks more like a L5 game that a BB game.

Though a lot of key Square folks are on board; Uematsu, the guy who did the illustrations, and the character designer is the same as some Square games like Marip RPG and (not Square) LKS!

And of course BB was formed by the Mana folks.

Aside from Hino who was at RiverhillSoft, what other folks do we know of at L5 and where did they originate from?
LOCK
Member
(12-29-2012, 01:31 AM)
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Originally Posted by BKK

So what I would like to know from the people who consider that the home console market is continuously in decline in Japan, what happens to the portable market this gen?

23m home consoles last gen (maybe can end up at 25m)
52m portable consoles (may end up a million or more too)

With PSV supposedly screwed can we expect 3DS to make up the difference, or are we looking towards a massive collapse in the market?

But maybe hardware numbers are distorted?

Japan traditionaly has a terrible attach rate compared to other countries, maybe that is due to multiple console ownership? Can we still see the same software sales with less hardware ownership? Or are we facing a massive collapse in the Japanese market?

Well the market is going to see a decline. But we really have no idea what Nintendo's intentions are for long term viability of the 3DS. They really haven't reached out to the casual market, and I think a better question is are they even going to with this current handheld generation?
Supermanisdead
Banned
(12-29-2012, 01:33 AM)
I wonder if we'll see a PS2 bump next week with people wanting to get the system before it disappears forever.
hardcastlemccormick
Member
(12-29-2012, 01:42 AM)
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Originally Posted by donny2112

And the name of the poster who brought this up was ...

Tee hee.

Originally Posted by donny2112

The problem comes in when trying to apply these data points to the larger market. I think we've done a good job keeping that from happening in the MC threads, though.

Until we get some real concrete ideas about download habits of each platform, it's just fair to say that every platform has a roughly equal digital-downloads-to-retail ratio and just assume it doesn't matter in the rankings. Tack on an extra 5% or 10% onto everything and yeehaw. It's great to see the disparity between Media Create and Famitsu for some of the really big titles though, even if they're only a fraction of the story.

Originally Posted by BKK

There came a point when people stopped pointing out the PS3 was outselling 360 20 to 1 and just accepted that 360 was a niche platform. How long until everyone just accepts that with regards to PSV and 3DS?

Considering how long it took for people to get over the DS' incredible numbers, I'd say it isn't likely to happen anytime soon. Consoles in Japan are boring compared to handhelds.

Originally Posted by LOCK

Well the market is going to see a decline. But we really have no idea what Nintendo's intentions are for long term viability of the 3DS. They really haven't reached out to the casual market, and I think a better question is are they even going to with this current handheld generation?

Their "throw new plans out only every two months" strategy seems exciting but it makes the system look very frantic and unstable. Right now it seems like they're going in more of a Gamecube direction in terms of software, but that could change in less than six months and we would never know until we're standing on its welcome mat.

EDIT: I mistook their for they're and my god, those typos are the worst. I apologize to the court.
Last edited by hardcastlemccormick; 12-29-2012 at 05:53 AM.
urfe
Member
(12-29-2012, 01:45 AM)
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Got a quick question:

When do we get year-end lists, and how comprehensive are they?

e.g. I'm really curious how well Layton 3DS has sold this year in Japan (I imagine some new 3DS owners were buying it every week). Is there any chance that Media Create will be putting out numbers on such a thing?

Thanks!
Road
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:41 AM)

Originally Posted by Bruno MB

Yes, it seems that there are only 2 interesting releases (Digimon Adventures and DmC: Devil May Cry). Besides the 3rd month of Animal Crossing: New Leaf we could also include Fantasy Life and Wii U hardware.

Fantasy Life could be an interesting title to predict since we still won't know its first week sales.

[3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf (28d) -
[3DS] Fantasy Life (28d) -
[PSP] Digimon Adventures (11d) -
[PS3+360] DmC: Devil May Cry (11d) -
[WIU] Hardware (28d) -

Except maybe I was thinking of maybe extending the deadline since it's holidays, new years etc., people might not be coming to GAF as much... But that is a good list. Maybe include NSMBU.

Originally Posted by hiska-kun

What about 3DS hardware?

I don't think there's anything particularly interesting about 3DS hardware in January, not even in light of no new games at all being released that month (note to self: need to check the last time this happened). It'll just sell. The destiny of Wii U hardware, on the other hand, is uncertain.

Originally Posted by BKK

So what I would like to know from the people who consider that the home console market is continuously in decline in Japan, what happens to the portable market this gen?

23m home consoles last gen (maybe can end up at 25m)
52m portable consoles (may end up a million or more too)

With PSV supposedly screwed can we expect 3DS to make up the difference, or are we looking towards a massive collapse in the market?

But maybe hardware numbers are distorted?

Japan traditionaly has a terrible attach rate compared to other countries, maybe that is due to multiple console ownership? Can we still see the same software sales with less hardware ownership? Or are we facing a massive collapse in the Japanese market?

For now, it seems the handheld software collapse will be even uglier. Most of the drop is from one publisher (Nintendo), which is not as bad for the market, but 3rd parties are on the path to be considerably down too. The good thing about this gen is we can always count on imaginary download sales to increase the numbers.

As for attach rate, yeah, this gen particularly it hasn't been good (except for the DS and Xbox 360), but I think used sales are also a big factor.


Originally Posted by urfe

Got a quick question:

When do we get year-end lists, and how comprehensive are they?

e.g. I'm really curious how well Layton 3DS has sold this year in Japan (I imagine some new 3DS owners were buying it every week). Is there any chance that Media Create will be putting out numbers on such a thing?

Thanks!

Barring unexpected changes, the first year-end list we'll get is the Famitsu Top 100 in the first half of January on the magazine (some cheap 350 yen, usually posted on the internet by someone in Japan quickly).

Layton 3DS is not gonna make the top 100, though. You'll have to wait a lot more for the white papers with the Top 1000, released only in April/May (much more expensive, not as quickly posted on the internet, if ever; if you are in Japan, maybe it's available for reading in some public library near you).
Last edited by Road; 12-29-2012 at 03:45 AM.
icecream
Public Health Threat
(12-29-2012, 05:03 AM)
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A bit late but...

Originally Posted by Chris1964

35./00. [PS3] White Album 2: Shiawase no Mukougawa # <ADV> (Aqua Plus) {2012.12.20} (Ľ7.140)

Gosh, that's horrible. The first one actually charted high and sold ~25K the first week.

Did everyone go and buy AKB1/149: Love Election instead or something?
extralite
Member
(12-29-2012, 07:04 AM)
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Originally Posted by electroplankton

Animal Crossing eShop sales must be very high if they already overcame Pokémon Radar sales.

The download cards may be included in this which would create cross over with Famitsu, but well, there aren't any numbers anyway. But I agree, to get there in such short time and NSMB2 is still at position 11. AC downloads aren't just huge, as are the retail sales, they should also be a much larger part of the full sales compared to Mario.

Basically AC fully delivers on the digital promise that Kawashima only made.
electroplankton
Banned
(12-29-2012, 08:51 AM)
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Originally Posted by extralite

The download cards may be included in this which would create cross over with Famitsu, but well, there aren't any numbers anyway. But I agree, to get there in such short time and NSMB2 is still at position 11. AC downloads aren't just huge, as are the retail sales, they should also be a much larger part of the full sales compared to Mario.

Basically AC fully delivers on the digital promise that Kawashima only made.

You're right, I didn't think about download cards. Then of course its eShop sales are huge, since it might have sold more than 300.000 units through them (by looking at the discrepancy between Famitsu and Media Create).

By the way, let's see whether Animal Crossing will be the Trojan horse for bigger sales on eShop of retail games.

Originally Posted by Hero of Legend

So anyone know the roles of Level 5 and Brownie Brown had in Fantasy Life? To me it looks more like a L5 game that a BB game.

Though a lot of key Square folks are on board; Uematsu, the guy who did the illustrations, and the character designer is the same as some Square games like Marip RPG and (not Square) LKS!

And of course BB was formed by the Mana folks.

Aside from Hino who was at RiverhillSoft, what other folks do we know of at L5 and where did they originate from?

Also Amano is on board (he usually draws Final Fantasy logos). But I think Fantasy Life is really Brownie Brown stuff; it started as a DS title with 2D graphics, reminding Mother 3 and London Life. Let's see whether we're going to get some credits screen from a Japanese gamer ;)

Originally Posted by BKK

So what I would like to know from the people who consider that the home console market is continuously in decline in Japan, what happens to the portable market this gen?

23m home consoles last gen (maybe can end up at 25m)
52m portable consoles (may end up a million or more too)

With PSV supposedly screwed can we expect 3DS to make up the difference, or are we looking towards a massive collapse in the market?

But maybe hardware numbers are distorted?

Japan traditionaly has a terrible attach rate compared to other countries, maybe that is due to multiple console ownership? Can we still see the same software sales with less hardware ownership? Or are we facing a massive collapse in the Japanese market?

Of course the handheld market will decline, but that will be more Sony's fault than Nintendo's. While 3DS might well reach the 20 mln units mark, I cannot see PS Vita arriving to a third of what PSP did. Maybe we're coming back to a pre-DS situation? GBA sold just 15 mln units after all....
test_account
XP-39C˛
(12-29-2012, 01:59 PM)
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Originally Posted by LOCK

Well the market is going to see a decline. But we really have no idea what Nintendo's intentions are for long term viability of the 3DS. They really haven't reached out to the casual market, and I think a better question is are they even going to with this current handheld generation?

Have Nintendo reached less out to the casual market with the 3DS compared to the DS? Looking at the releases, they've already done a sequel to almost every more casual like/draw game that was on the DS.
AdventureRacing
Member
(12-29-2012, 02:18 PM)

Originally Posted by electroplankton

Of course the handheld market will decline, but that will be more Sony's fault than Nintendo's. While 3DS might well reach the 20 mln units mark, I cannot see PS Vita arriving to a third of what PSP did. Maybe we're coming back to a pre-DS situation? GBA sold just 15 mln units after all....

No way are we going to see that level of dropoff. The 3DS passing 20 million is pretty much a guarantee at this point. In a couple of weeks it will pass 10 million units sold and it is selling like hotcakes. That's without the release of pokemon or MH4 yet.

I didn't think there was any chance before but i'm starting to think that maybe the 3DS can post similar numbers to the DS (only talking about HW).

There is no question that the vita will see a huge dropoff from the PSP though.
watershed
Member
(12-29-2012, 02:28 PM)
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Originally Posted by test_account

Have Nintendo reached less out to the casual market with the 3DS compared to the DS? Looking at the releases, they've already done a sequel to almost every more casual like/draw game that was on the DS.

I think its true so far that every sequel to the ds casual hits has done worse than its predecessor and there is still Tomogachi Collection: Creepy Family edition to come which I assume will do worse as well.

Even still, one thing Nintendo needs to do is release Flipnote 3d with expanded features, keep it free, and sell it downloaded onto a new 3dsi or release it to coincide with a price cut. To me Flipnote was the killer app of the dsi. That free app sold hardware. It could do the same for the 3ds.
electroplankton
Banned
(12-29-2012, 02:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by watershed

I think its true so far that every sequel to the ds casual hits has done worse than its predecessor and there is still Tomogachi Collection: Creepy Family edition to come which I assume will do worse as well.

Even still, one thing Nintendo needs to do is release Flipnote 3d with expanded features, keep it free, and sell it downloaded onto a new 3dsi or release it to coincide with a price cut. To me Flipnote was the killer app of the dsi. That free app sold hardware. It could do the same for the 3ds.

Actually, New Art Academy was selling on par with the first one.
Rock_Man
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:01 PM)
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Originally Posted by Nekki

Amazing. Nintendo should be more than happy. They have far more benefit with this kind of model than the DS one, even though DS did receive a good amount of third party support. But keeping them happier means a better relationship and ecosystem overall.

Stockholders disagree? Those benefits have yet to be proved.
yurinka
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:14 PM)
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I'd say that PSP will reach 20M LTD in Japan, but is it possible to reach PS2 LTD numbers?
I wonder when they are going to stop releasing PSP games and to move to Vita instead. Or do all these new Jap PSP games appear in Vita PSN too?

BTW just checked this, maybe someone is interested:
YTD + Last YTD of Nintendo and Sony handhelds

3DS + NDS = 9,331,722 + 720,254 = 10,051,976
Vita + PSP = 1,067,685 + 2,874,119 = 3,941,805

Total nits sold = 13,993,781

Nintendo marketshare = 71.83%
Sony marketshare = 28.17%
Last edited by yurinka; 12-29-2012 at 03:31 PM.
Spiegel
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:20 PM)
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They can also move to 3DS and not Vita, you know
Orgen
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:36 PM)
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Originally Posted by Frillen

Call of Duty on a Nintendo system with a userbase of 558k in Japan.

Call of Duty is now a +300.000 seller in Japan (counting the Subtitled Edition). I was curious to see the first? (or it was AC III?) simultaneous and important PS3/Wii U release in Japan nothing more. The Declassified bit maybe was a little harsh but a truth nonetheless.

Ken's Rage 2 Wii U not making the top 50 when it's out confirmed ;P
Nekki
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by thehypocrite

True, it's funny how they even use Miiverse posts as a reference for sales. When posters claimed that Vita titles may have 10% in digital sales they were attacked for making up numbers, now you have those same posters doing that and more, like poetry, full circle.

Originally Posted by BKK

Also funny how after years of knocking down every poster that pointed out that many (non-Nintendo) games also have digital sales (which allegedly next to nobody in Japan buys), we now have a mass of people pointing out WiiU digital sales as if no ever platform has had them before. Well, I guess fans of all platforms can now live in the digital world of make believe figures in harmony!

I'd like to be enlightened because i don't remember such posts.
Grampasso
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by electroplankton

The comparison doesn't make sense to begin with, because they both have small environments, when Dragon Quest VIII is basically open-world. Dragon Quest VII may be a more adequate game to compare with, but I'm sure Square Enix didn't push the console with it, being a remake.

Yeah it's a remake, but it's one of the most important franchises in Japan, it's THE Japanese RPG and if I remember well it's the firt remake of that title totally made from the groundup, for the most successful console in Japan at the moment. So I don't think they need to "play safe" and I honestly hope they'll risk a bit with it :D
Lord_Byron28
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:48 PM)
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Originally Posted by watershed

I think its true so far that every sequel to the ds casual hits has done worse than its predecessor and there is still Tomogachi Collection: Creepy Family edition to come which I assume will do worse as well.

Even still, one thing Nintendo needs to do is release Flipnote 3d with expanded features, keep it free, and sell it downloaded onto a new 3dsi or release it to coincide with a price cut. To me Flipnote was the killer app of the dsi. That free app sold hardware. It could do the same for the 3ds.

Well id define animal crossing as casual. Alsobi don't think friend collection will do that bad for two reasons. #1 its similar to animal crossing so there is an audience for it. #2 friend collection sold and became popular after the casual software collapse on DS and Wii.
liger05
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by Rock_Man

Stockholders disagree? Those benefits have yet to be proved.

Stockholders think Nintendo going down the iOS and android route would be a good idea.
Nekki
Member
(12-29-2012, 03:54 PM)
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Originally Posted by Rock_Man

Stockholders disagree? Those benefits have yet to be proved.

I meant purely from a third-party relations point of view.

Originally Posted by liger05

Stockholders think Nintendo going down the iOS and android route would be a good idea.

Also this. Sure, they have a degree i don't have, but yeah..
Zeer0id
Member
(12-29-2012, 04:00 PM)
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Originally Posted by liger05

Stockholders think Nintendo going down the iOS and android route would be a good idea.

Stockholders just don't have confidence in Nintendo's long-term prospects or those of the dedicated video game console business, in general. Nintendo would rake in tons of cash if they released software on a platform with a userbase the size of iOS. They could probably charge as much as Square Enix even and get away with it more successfully than SE does.

But the moment they do this, their hardware business will go into steep decline. The question is would their hardware business decline anyway (but more slowly)? The stockholders seem to think so.
electroplankton
Banned
(12-29-2012, 04:15 PM)
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Originally Posted by Grampasso

Yeah it's a remake, but it's one of the most important franchises in Japan, it's THE Japanese RPG and if I remember well it's the firt remake of that title totally made from the groundup, for the most successful console in Japan at the moment. So I don't think they need to "play safe" and I honestly hope they'll risk a bit with it :D

They didn't risk at all with Dragon Quest VI remake on DS, which was the first time the game had been remade, on the most successful console in Japan at that time.
Lord_Byron28
Member
(12-29-2012, 04:16 PM)
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Originally Posted by Zeer0id

Stockholders just don't have confidence in Nintendo's long-term prospects or those of the dedicated video game console business, in general. Nintendo would rake in tons of cash if they released software on a platform with a userbase the size of iOS. They could probably charge as much as Square Enix even and get away with it more successfully than SE does.

But the moment they do this, their hardware business will go into steep decline. The question is would their hardware business decline anyway (but more slowly)? The stockholders seem to think so.

Given what the stockholders have said I highly doubt they understand why nintendo won't release on mobile and they are very short sighted. I don't think alot of the stockholders think any further than angry birds success on mobile when wanting nintendo to switch over..
electroplankton
Banned
(12-29-2012, 04:21 PM)
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Originally Posted by Lord_Byron28

Given what the stockholders have said I highly doubt they understand why nintendo won't release on mobile and they are very short sighted. I don't think alot of the stockholders think any further than angry birds success on mobile when wanting nintendo to switch over..

Nintendo tried to accomodate them, though, by releasing Pokédex app on iOS.
farnham
Banned
(12-29-2012, 04:23 PM)

Originally Posted by Lord_Byron28

Given what the stockholders have said I highly doubt they understand why nintendo won't release on mobile and they are very short sighted. I don't think alot of the stockholders think any further than angry birds success on mobile when wanting nintendo to switch over..

Indeed. Nintendo is powerful because, like apple, they make software and hardware
Road
Member
(12-29-2012, 06:53 PM)
Some graphics on the software transition between generations.



Software sales this gen grew a lot, and by "software sales" I mean Nintendo software sales (from 47m to 141m). Blue ocean, casual, non-game, lightning in a bottle, gimmick, fad, choose your favorite description. If they can or not replicate that, it's their problem and not a main concern for the 3rd party publishers.

It can be argued 3rd parties didn't take full advantage of the DS and the Wii, but they still managed to grow a little by spreading themselves across multiple systems:



The question is, what can they do to keep the growth or avoid a sharp decline since we have one less player in the game? Not just any player, by the way, 3rd party software sales on the PSP (65m) are almost the same as the total of Wii + PS3 + Xbox 360 (67m).

One option mentioned often is to turn the 3DS into the new PS2. The problem is they're already far behind at that task:



3rd parties have been doing better on the 3DS than on the DS at the same point in time, 30% better. It's a negligible 2 million difference right now, but if they keep that rate, they will end up at 107 million on the 3DS. That's a good 25 million increase over the DS, but still far away from the PS2 (165m) and still missing 40 million to make up for what they sold on the PSP.

Another solution, which may be pursued along the previous one, is to focus again strongly on home console software sales. They'd have to increased sales considerably is all we now: In the scenario where the 3DS gets 107m and Vita 8m, there's 100m left for home consoles to total 215m, meaning they should increase 50% over what has been sold for the Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360.

The last and most likely outcome, though, is simply to accept they'll sell less packaged software next-gen and make up for the lost revenue with the non-traditional gaming avenues.
thehypocrite
Member
(12-29-2012, 08:09 PM)
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Originally Posted by electroplankton


Who?

Originally Posted by hardcastlemccormick

Where is this? Not expecting a response from a hit and run, but.

Originally Posted by Kandinsky

Name names son.

Originally Posted by Nekki

I'd like to be enlightened because i don't remember such posts.

Here you go. I also by memory remember other posts as well, but this will do.

Originally Posted by Smiles and Cries

I'm also rejecting "dead"

Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12 Miiverse community is already more active than Batman and AC3 and others which were up last week at launch. They have some crazy fans going by all the drawings that game is far from dead the platform just needs an install base to sell software to

Originally Posted by Captain Smoker

Maybe I'll start to transcribe the japanese Miiverse activity sundays and compare it to the sales data, so maybe we can get a variable in the future to predict sales (interesting for new releases). :P

I just compared some numbers and it seems like (at first sight, don't take this as a given), that Miiverse Activity *10 ~ sales (mainstream titles) and Miiverse Activity *3 or 5 ~ sales ("hardcore" titles).


Romance of the Three Kingdoms 12 has an activity of 1.082 currently. (Prediction: 3.000 to 6.000 units sold currently).




*Actually, I still don't know what the Miiverse activity number is exactly (number of posts?) ^^



And if this works for Japan (we can compare the numbers weekly), maybe we can get a better picture of US-sales too. ;)

farnham
Banned
(12-29-2012, 08:12 PM)

Originally Posted by BKK

There came a point when people stopped pointing out the PS3 was outselling 360 20 to 1 and just accepted that 360 was a niche platform. How long until everyone just accepts that with regards to PSV and 3DS?

360 is successful in NA though.. That means support even from japanese companies was guaranteed.. Not so much for the vita
KillerMan91
Member
(12-29-2012, 08:13 PM)
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I think that considering demographic issues of Japan 7th gen was the peak of the gaming market and in future the market will decline over the years. Both in hardware and software.
electroplankton
Banned
(12-29-2012, 08:14 PM)
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Road, nice analysis.
3rd party software sales that cannot be filled by 3DS can be filled by an home console. PS2 was basically alone in the market (GBA, GC and Xbox really didn't sell 3rd party software), 3DS won't be because there will be (I hope) at least one home console to counterbalance the handheld market.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
(12-29-2012, 08:47 PM)

Originally Posted by test_account

From what i've seen of DQ7 remake however, it doesnt blow DQ8 graphics out of the water. I'm sceptical that they would be able to make a DQ8 remake on 3DS that would look a lot better, but it would be interesting the see anyway =)

The only PS2 DQ you should be comparing to DQ7 3DS is the DQ5 remake. Same team, same engine, same budget. DQ7 gives zero indication as to the viability of a DQ8 port on the system.



Originally Posted by hardcastlemccormick

And also a very bad frame rate. DQ8 could be done, but it was certainly made for the PS2's strengths. The 3DS shares few of them.

Except for a couple specific instances MGS3DS was a fairly solid 20fps in 3D, which put it inline with the PS2 original and Peace Walker PSP. It's actually a pretty commendable conversion, Hexadrive did a great job considering it's a game really built around PS2's architecture (much moreso than DQ8) and the port generally runs at a comparable framerate in full 3D. PS2 likely couldn't pull that off.

I think people tend to be harder on it because it launched alongside much improved HD (and qHD) versions on significantly more capable hardware. But when judged against comparable MGS games on PS2 and PSP the 3DS version comes off pretty decent.
chertipros
Member
(12-29-2012, 09:17 PM)
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Originally Posted by lunchwithyuzo

The only PS2 DQ you should be comparing to DQ7 3DS is the DQ5 remake. Same team, same engine, same budget. DQ7 gives zero indication as to the viability of a DQ8 port on the system.




Except for a couple specific instances MGS3DS was a fairly solid 20fps in 3D, which put it inline with the PS2 original and Peace Walker PSP. It's actually a pretty commendable conversion, Hexadrive did a great job considering it's a game really built around PS2's architecture (much moreso than DQ8) and the port generally runs at a comparable framerate in full 3D. PS2 likely couldn't pull that off.

I think people tend to be harder on it because it launched alongside much improved HD (and qHD) versions on significantly more capable hardware. But when judged against comparable MGS games on PS2 and PSP the 3DS version comes off pretty decent.

You're back :O
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
(12-29-2012, 09:32 PM)

Originally Posted by chertipros

You're back :O

Yep! And smarmy as ever. :)
Sage00
Once And Future Member
(12-29-2012, 09:37 PM)
Sage00's Avatar

Originally Posted by lunchwithyuzo

Except for a couple specific instances MGS3DS was a fairly solid 20fps in 3D, which put it inline with the PS2 original and Peace Walker PSP.

Okay then.
DNF
Member
(12-29-2012, 10:57 PM)
DNF's Avatar

Originally Posted by Road


One option mentioned often is to turn the 3DS into the new PS2. The problem is they're already far behind at that task:



3rd parties have been doing better on the 3DS than on the DS at the same point in time, 30% better. It's a negligible 2 million difference right now, but if they keep that rate, they will end up at 107 million on the 3DS. That's a good 25 million increase over the DS, but still far away from the PS2 (165m) and still missing 40 million to make up for what they sold on the PSP.

if third parties want to come near to archive this, they should try to treat it similiar. While PS2 had almost every popular franchise (i guess) and even multiple entries of them, the DS (the best selling system!) had some of them not. maybe the 30% boost comes mostly from franchises DS hadn't (MonsterHunter, Streetfighter,Miku, Ridge Racer...) or were barely represented compared to PS2 (Resident Evil)
test_account
XP-39C˛
(12-29-2012, 11:49 PM)
test_account's Avatar

Originally Posted by lunchwithyuzo

The only PS2 DQ you should be comparing to DQ7 3DS is the DQ5 remake. Same team, same engine, same budget. DQ7 gives zero indication as to the viability of a DQ8 port on the system.

What if the same team get set to make DQ8 remake for the 3DS, and they use the same engine and the same budget? They have made some Dragon Quest ports, so i guess it is not impossible that this could be a likely senario, so who knows if it could be an indication. But the DQ7 remake does at least excist for the 3DS, so i see no problem comparing it to that at the moment :) It is possible that a DQ8 remake might look better indeed, but that is anyone's guess (especially that it will blow the PS2 out of the water regarding the graphics) because we have no info on such project.

Which engine are used for the DQ7 remake by the way? And how much is the budget on?
Last edited by test_account; 12-30-2012 at 12:10 AM.
Nekki
Member
(12-30-2012, 12:00 AM)
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Originally Posted by thehypocrite

Here you go. I also by memory remember other posts as well, but this will do.

Pretty far from the "mass of posters" and other posters that claim digital sales are saving the system.

It's just two people, and your second quote is just guesstimate work, even he says it.
lunchwithyuzo
Banned
(12-30-2012, 12:06 AM)

Originally Posted by test_account

What if the same team get set to make DQ8 remake for the 3DS, and they use the same engine and the same budget? The DQ7 remake at least excist for the 3DS, so that is all i really can compare it to at the moment :) It is possible that a DQ8 remake might look better, but that is anyone's guess (espcially that it will blow the PS2 out of the water graphically) because we have no info on such project.

Which engine are used for the DQ7 remake by the way? And how much is the budget on?

If DQ8 3DS happens, I'd expect a different team doing the port. Maybe even Level 5 themselves. But probably not Arte Piazza.

Engine looks almost exactly the same as DQ5 PS2. Torneko 3 used it too actually. We don't know the exact budgets on any of these games, but it's safe to say DQ7 3DS is nowhere near DQ8.
test_account
XP-39C˛
(12-30-2012, 12:18 AM)
test_account's Avatar

Originally Posted by lunchwithyuzo

If DQ8 3DS happens, I'd expect a different team doing the port. Maybe even Level 5 themselves. But probably not Arte Piazza.

Engine looks almost exactly the same as DQ5 PS2. Torneko 3 used it too actually. We don't know the exact budgets on any of these games, but it's safe to say DQ7 3DS is nowhere near DQ8.

That is possible, but it means it is too early to say that DQ7 remake is any indication or not on how a potential DQ8 remake would look :)

Sure, they are remakes afterall, so they are most likely cheaper than the first games indeed. But i was wondering regarding same budget for DQ5 PS2 and DQ7 3DS. A potential DQ8 remake wont have the same budget as DQ8 either for that matter, most likely at least.
Last edited by test_account; 12-30-2012 at 12:25 AM.

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