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The al-Qaeda Strategy

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H

Hieberrr

Member
I saw a submission for the Afghanistan then-and-now photos and in one of the comments, someone talked about how al-Qaeda planned to force the U.S. to fall in a similar fashion that the Soviet Union fell.

I doubt that strategy will actually work and the result they seek will come to fruition, but it's interesting and I thought I'd share:

Wikipedia said:
On March 11, 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabi published extracts from Saif al-Adel's document "Al Quaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".[59][60] Abdel Bari Atwan summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages to rid the Ummah from all forms of oppression:

  1. Provoke the United States and the West into invading a Muslim country by staging a massive attack or string of attacks on U.S. soil that results in massive civilian casualties.
  2. Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
  3. Expand the conflict to neighboring countries, and engage the U.S. and its allies in a long war of attrition.
  4. Convert al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against the U.S. and countries allied with the U.S. until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the 2004 Madrid train bombings, but which did not have the same effect with the July 7, 2005 London bombings.
  5. The U.S. economy will finally collapse by the year 2020 under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places, making the worldwide economic system which is dependent on the U.S. also collapse leading to global political instability, which in turn leads to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world following the collapse of the U.S. and the rest of the Western world countries.

Atwan also noted, regarding the collapse of the U.S., "If this sounds far-fetched, it is sobering to consider that this virtually describes the downfall of the Soviet Union."[59]
Click to expand...
 
G

Grakl

Member
We wont overstretch enough to collapse by 2020, especially when we ramp up the use of drones in lieu of boots on the ground.
 
H

Heshinsi

"playing" dumb? unpossible
I wonder how Allah feels about these dicks turning his followers into cannon fodder? I never understood why we dance around the main source of all this Islamist problems; Saudi goat fucking Arabia.
 
T

Toa TAK

Banned
Good luck with that. If we have this information already, I'm sure the higher ups do as well. Including the CIA.
 
S

speculawyer

Member
The U.S. economy will finally collapse by the year 2020 under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places, making the worldwide economic system which is dependent on the U.S. also collapse leading to global political instability, which in turn leads to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world following the collapse of the U.S. and the rest of the Western world countries.
Click to expand...

Sorry, not falling for it.

Obama_1927894c.jpg
 
Z

Zaptruder

Banned
Drones bitches. Once they start putting miniature explosives and object recognition cloud AI into the micro drones, it's game over for guerilla war.

Essentially, drop a cluster bomb filled with smart drone bomblets and go home; drone bomblets will search and destroy hostiles for a 90% of its operational life, before seeking empty space to self destruct.
 
C

crimsondynamics

Member
Wikipedia: said:
On March 11, 2005, Al-Quds Al-Arabi published extracts from Saif al-Adel's document "Al Quaeda's Strategy to the Year 2020".[59][60] Abdel Bari Atwan summarizes this strategy as comprising five stages to rid the Ummah from all forms of oppression:

  1. Provoke the United States and the West into invading a Muslim country by staging a massive attack or string of attacks on U.S. soil that results in massive civilian casualties.
  2. Incite local resistance to occupying forces.
  3. Expand the conflict to neighboring countries, and engage the U.S. and its allies in a long war of attrition.
  4. Convert al-Qaeda into an ideology and set of operating principles that can be loosely franchised in other countries without requiring direct command and control, and via these franchises incite attacks against the U.S. and countries allied with the U.S. until they withdraw from the conflict, as happened with the 2004 Madrid train bombings, but which did not have the same effect with the July 7, 2005 London bombings.
  5. The U.S. economy will finally collapse by the year 2020 under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places, making the worldwide economic system which is dependent on the U.S. also collapse leading to global political instability, which in turn leads to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world following the collapse of the U.S. and the rest of the Western world countries.
  6. ???
  7. Profit!

Atwan also noted, regarding the collapse of the U.S., "If this sounds far-fetched, it is sobering to consider that this virtually describes the downfall of the Soviet Union."[59]
Click to expand...

Fixed.
 
J

jambo

Member
It's not actually that crazy... until you get to step 5. Somehow economies will collapse and then al-Qaeda will just be in charge everywhere? Yeah, that's happening.
 
P

PBalfredo

Member
"You see, Americans have a preset money limit. Knowing their weakness, I sent wave after wave of my own men at them, until they reached their spending limit and went broke."

h7iTThJ.png
 
F

fawaz

Banned
Heshinsi said:
I wonder how Allah feels about these dicks turning his followers into cannon fodder? I never understood why we dance around the main source of all this Islamist problems; Saudi goat fucking Arabia.
Click to expand...

Can you explain your opinion?

I am a Saudi citizen and would like to know what you mean if you could spare the time.
 
B

bachikarn

Member
jambo said:
It's not actually that crazy... until you get to step 5. Somehow economies will collapse and then al-Qaeda will just be in charge everywhere? Yeah, that's happening.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I was kind of following it till that. Seems like a huge stretch to say our economy would collapse due to all the wars. My gut feeling is that our economy would get better since we'd have more jobs for people to support those wars, but I'm pretty ignorant on the subject.
 
H

Heshinsi

"playing" dumb? unpossible
fawaz said:
Can you explain your opinion?

I am a Saudi citizen and would like to know what you mean if you could spare the time.
Click to expand...

Oh it's simple. Follow the money trail for almost all Islamist terror groups, and sure enough it leads straight back to Saudi Arabia. I have no problems with the Saudi citizenry, but I despise the House of Saud and the nut so Wahhabi clergy that want to drown the Muslim world with their insanity.
 
Riposte

Riposte

Member
Well, I got to say I feel bad for yelling at all those comic books for having villains with unrealistic goals.
 
H

Hieberrr

Member
bachikarn said:
Yeah, I was kind of following it till that. Seems like a huge stretch to say our economy would collapse due to all the wars. My gut feeling is that our economy would get better since we'd have more jobs for people to support those wars, but I'm pretty ignorant on the subject.
Click to expand...
Wars are extremely expensive and can (see: World Wars) put the economy into depression. I think this "strategy" banks on the chance that the U.S. economy will tank and tank hard to the point of famine (highly highly highly doubtful).
 
F

fawaz

Banned
Heshinsi said:
Oh it's simple. Follow the money trail for almost all Islamist terror groups, and sure enough it leads straight back to Saudi Arabia. I have no problems with the Saudi citizenry, but I despise the House of Saud and the nut so Wahhabi clergy that want to drown the Muslim world with their insanity.
Click to expand...

While it is true some idiots support terrorism they have been greatly diminished as they are probably being tortured in Al-Saud prisons as we speak. However, claiming Al-Saud are funding terrorism is just stupid. The U.S and western world are their greatest allies, and only through their support are they currently buttfucking us Saudi citizens.
 
C

ClovingWestbrook

Banned
Their plan may have worked had McCain won in 08 or Romney in 2012. Obama is brining the troops home from Afghanistan and we are basically out of Iraq. Now it's a drone war. Good luck al Qaeda.
 
G

GavinGT

Banned
Was this allegedly written in 2005? Otherwise, it would seem they've drawn up this plan only after half of it had already come to fruition.
 
S

Steelrain

Member
Looks like the military's shift towards SOF, SF and drones will make future conflicts a lot cheaper. We'll see though.Once a republican gets back into office they might abandon this new strategy.
 
T

ThoseDeafMutes

Member
Steelrain said:
Looks like the military's shift towards SOF, SF and drones will make future conflicts a lot cheaper. We'll see though.Once a republican gets back into office they might abandon this new strategy.
Click to expand...

They don't seem to have factored in the adaptability of the occupying forces.
 
M

MasterOfPastures

Banned
When the US starts investing and building space weapons (kinetic strikes), all they have to do is sit back and push buttons.
Until then, lets keep playing the Meat Grinder game.
 
Phoenix

Phoenix

Member
ThoseDeafMutes said:
They don't seem to have factored in the adaptability of the occupying forces.
Click to expand...

Or our the fact that the longer a conflict goes on, the cheaper it becomes as economies of scale make it possible to manufacture more lethal killing machines. By 2020, most of the attackers of Al Qaeda will be of the drone variety.
 
Phoenix

Phoenix

Member
MasterOfPastures said:
When the US starts investing and building space weapons (kinetic strikes), all they have to do is sit back and push buttons.
Until then, lets keep playing the Meat Grinder game.
Click to expand...

The cost to kill would be ludicrously high, so I doubt we'll see that caliber of weapon used for this type of conflict.
 
T

ThoseDeafMutes

Member
MasterOfPastures said:
When the US starts investing and building space weapons (kinetic strikes), all they have to do is sit back and push buttons.
Until then, lets keep playing the Meat Grinder game.
Click to expand...

They can sit back and push buttons right now. But you can't just level big swathes of city to kill terrorists, there is an expectation for the occupying force to avoid civilian casualties where possible, and this means boots on the ground kicking in doors. Dropping tungsten poles from space is a pretty good way to hit an area target with extreme force in a manner that cannot be intercepted by air defenses. It is going to be less precise than guided munitions dropped from an aircraft though, and also far more expensive per strike. The scales of destruction are not appropriate.

Future tech that will make OF's job easier are things like advanced body armors, a wider variety UGVs etc.
 
D

Deleted member 1235

Unconfirmed Member
step 4 -> 5 is a bit of an underpants gnomes situation I think.
They've probably wildly underestimated the US ability to say 'well fuck, this isn't working out economically AT ALL fuck those countries let's just bail'
 
K

Kad5

Member
I would think that if the war on terror went on for long enough (in terms of the drone strikes) it would simply increase the rise of radical islamists that wish to attack us. Even if we don't collapse by 2012 it won't be good for our country to be in a perpetual war.
 
S

Subtle

Member
I don't think turning al-Qaeda into a philosophy would work on westerners. They would seriously need to rebrand.
 
T

Tzeentch

Member
Zaptruder said:
Drones bitches. Once they start putting miniature explosives and object recognition cloud AI into the micro drones, it's game over for guerilla war.
Click to expand...
LOL.

Luckily, serious military planners are not technofetishists like the average armchair general.
 
K

Kad5

Member
Subtle said:
I don't think turning al-Qaeda into a philosophy would work on westerners. They would seriously need to rebrand.
Click to expand...

Al-Qaeda is already a decentralized entity. It's really more of a brand name than anything else. So that part has already happened in places like Iraq and the Maghreb.
 
C

Clay Davis

Member
most of those are believable, but this is just ridiculous...

The U.S. economy will finally collapse by the year 2020 under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places, making the worldwide economic system which is dependent on the U.S. also collapse leading to global political instability, which in turn leads to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world following the collapse of the U.S. and the rest of the Western world countries.
Click to expand...

even if the world economy were to collapse, this simply wouldn't happen.
 
N

Nekofrog

Banned
Tzeentch said:
LOL.

Luckily, serious military planners are not technofetishists like the average armchair general.
Click to expand...

from all that i've seen currently in the military, his comment is more accurate than you would think. even from an ISR position, I can see it coming. I see the effect of it every day.
 
Meus Renaissance

Meus Renaissance

Member
5. The U.S. economy will finally collapse by the year 2020 under the strain of multiple engagements in numerous places, making the worldwide economic system which is dependent on the U.S. also collapse leading to global political instability, which in turn leads to a global jihad led by al-Qaeda and a Wahhabi Caliphate will then be installed across the world following the collapse of the U.S. and the rest of the Western world countries.
Click to expand...

I'm going to call the entire thing into question because of this point. It shows a fundamental lack of understanding of what a Caliphate actually is and rather curiously seems to reinforce the fear mongering amongst the far right as to what it entails

Edit: I read it wrong. My bad
 
K

Kad5

Member
Jason Raize '75 - '04 said:
I'm going to call the entire thing into question because of this point. It shows a fundamental lack of understanding of what a Caliphate actually is and rather curiously seems to reinforce the fear mongering amongst the far right as to what it entails
Click to expand...

It's pretty much the equivalent of a radical communist's goal of creating a worldwide communist revolution. Just replace communism with radical political Islam.
 
I

Ikael

Member
Zaptruder said:
Drones bitches. Once they start putting miniature explosives and object recognition cloud AI into the micro drones, it's game over for guerilla war.
Click to expand...

Yet another "guerrilla wars can be won from the air and with superior technology" guy? Seriously? Srsly? Guerrilla wars are by definition fought by boots on the ground, for it implies that there is an occupying country with >physical presence< that a guerrilla fights to expell. Yes, drones are a great tool for minimizing casualities and asssasination but they are not going to substitute infantry, ever. Not to mention that at some point drones will lower production costs and would be easily and cheaply avaible for guerrillas too, soooo...

Heshinsi said:
I wonder how Allah feels about these dicks turning his followers into cannon fodder? I never understood why we dance around the main source of all this Islamist problems; Saudi goat fucking Arabia.
Click to expand...

Saudi Arabia is the only country on Earth along with North Korea that would make the world a better place if it outright vanished into thin air. Its only exports are oil, mysoginy, and hatred. Fuck that shit.
 
T

TAJ

Darkness cannot drive out darkness; only light can do that. Hate cannot drive out hate; only love can do that.
Drones cheaper? That seems unlikely. Missiles cost a hell of a lot more than bullets, although I guess they're fairly cost-effective for attacking weddings and funerals.
 
F

fawaz

Banned
Ikael said:
Yet another "guerrilla wars can be won from the air and with superior technology" guy? Seriously? Srsly? Guerrilla wars are by definition fought by boots on the ground, for it implies that there is an occupying country with >physical presence< that a guerrilla fights to expell. Yes, drones are a great tool for minimizing casualities and asssasination but they are not going to substitute infantry, ever. Not to mention that at some point drones will lower production costs and would be easily and cheaply avaible for guerrillas too, soooo...



Saudi Arabia is the only country on Earth along with North Korea that would make the world a better place if it outright vanished into thin air. Its only exports are oil, mysoginy, and hatred. Fuck that shit.
Click to expand...

This statement right here makes you no better than the "death to america" extremists. Think next time before vomiting out words.
 
I

Ikael

Member
fawaz said:
This statement right here makes you no better than the "death to america" extremists. Think next time before vomiting out words.
Click to expand...

Fair enough, these have been far too extreme words from my part, I bear no ill-will towards SA's popullace. But as a political actor, Saudi Arabia is nothing but poisonous, and its political and social project should be fought actively. Institutionalized gender apartheid, Wahabism and Salafism are hardly what I would call "worthwhile contributions" to mankind.
 
Z

Zaptruder

Banned
Tzeentch said:
LOL.

Luckily, serious military planners are not technofetishists like the average armchair general.
Click to expand...

Ikael said:
Yet another "guerrilla wars can be won from the air and with superior technology" guy? Seriously? Srsly? Guerrilla wars are by definition fought by boots on the ground, for it implies that there is an occupying country with >physical presence< that a guerrilla fights to expell. Yes, drones are a great tool for minimizing casualities and asssasination but they are not going to substitute infantry, ever. Not to mention that at some point drones will lower production costs and would be easily and cheaply avaible for guerrillas too, soooo...
Click to expand...

'Serious' planners can't afford to bet all their chips on one technological outcome, as promising as it may be. For now, they simply have to react to the reality in front of them... which in practice hasn't really yielded great results, because the R&D process for military tech has been so long and overburdened that by the time the tech gets into operations, the operations that they were designed for have become outmoded.

Having said that, drones and AI is the inevitable logical direction of war and technology.

They're just about small enough, and they're nearly smart enough. When drones can identify civilians from insurgents, then you're going to have a very cheap (because they're small and based largely on civilian tech) and very effective (because it does the job of identifying enemy troops that a human does, only better; they're not subject to stress and cognitive errors and biases) ground force; that is deployed via air weapons.

So a smart drone is to a missile or bomb as a commando is to a chinook. They're still 'ground forces' in that they attack units on the ground.

I estimate the AI tech (sufficient for what I'm talking about) at around 1-1.5 decades out. Google has already been working on object recognition for a while; that development like the human genome project will only accelerate as computing power continues to grow.


At some point, war will progress to economic attrition (which in some senses has already been the primary form of conflict in the 20th century); the effectiveness of AI drones will essentially remove the need for humans in the equation of war.
 
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