• Register
  • TOS
  • Privacy
  • @NeoGAF

zomgbbqftw
Pay attention.
(02-21-2013, 12:01 PM)
zomgbbqftw's Avatar
Revised analysis.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 65-80
8GB GDDR5 - 80-105
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 10-18
Video encode/decode chip - 0 (included in OS chip, we figure)
Blu-ray drive - 25-35
Hard drive - 30-35
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 10-30
DS4 - 20-29
Mono headset - 3
Cabling/misc - 3

Total parts/silicon - 272-364

Other costs:

Internal PSU - 27-40
Cooling - 33-50
Assembly - 15-20

Total estimated system cost (no shipping and packaging) - 390-430 (Does not include PS Camera since it is not bundled)

Accessories:

PS4 Eye -12-20

All figures in USD.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.



Old figures below

So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

Accessories:

DS4 - 18-30
PS4 Eye -$12-20
Mono headset - 3
Cabling/misc - 3

Unknown/Alpha:

Internal PSU - 25-55
Cooling - 20-38
Assembly - 13 (Based on being made in China, for made in Japan, make that ~ $45)

Total estimated system cost (no shipping and packaging) - $450-490

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.

Last edited by zomgbbqftw; 06-18-2013 at 05:37 PM. Reason: revision
raven777
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:03 PM)
raven777's Avatar
is this based on retail prices, or actually what Sony would pay by buying massive amounts?
LukeTim
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:03 PM)
So, assuming Sony are willing to make a loss on each, the PS4 could possibly be surprisingly cheap?
zomgbbqftw
Pay attention.
(02-21-2013, 12:04 PM)
zomgbbqftw's Avatar

Originally Posted by raven777

is this based on retail prices, or actually what Sony would pay by buying massive amounts?

Wholesale price, but without Sony's specific bulk discount just a generic one.
DGRE
Banned
(02-21-2013, 12:04 PM)
DGRE's Avatar

Originally Posted by LukeTim

So, assuming Sony are willing to make a loss on each, the PS4 could possibly be surprisingly cheap?

Did you read the OP?
maquiladora
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:05 PM)
maquiladora's Avatar
Around $400 seems reasonable then.
Rice-Eater
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:05 PM)
Rice-Eater's Avatar
Well the picture you painted screams $400 as the entry price. And I would be very pleased with that if it is the case. They can release a premium model for $500 with PS Eye, PS+ trial, bigger HDD, and other junk for all I care. As long as the cheaper model is $400 to begin with.
Last edited by Rice-Eater; 02-21-2013 at 12:33 PM.
madmackem
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:06 PM)
madmackem's Avatar
The big cost is not the parts but R&D.
Delusibeta
Junior Member
(02-21-2013, 12:06 PM)
Delusibeta's Avatar
Basically, it depends on how much Sony is prepared to lose per console. $400 is possible, but I think $500 is more likely. I wouldn't be too surprised if you underestimated the cost of the CPU/GPU combo, if the rumours that it's based on Radeon 7700+ are true.
RaGMasTeR90
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:06 PM)
RaGMasTeR90's Avatar
Im betting on 449$ without PS4eye and 499% with PS4eye
michaelius
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:07 PM)
They are sacrificing 50-70 usd for additional 4 gigs of memory to help developers - impresive.
Mpl90
Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
(02-21-2013, 12:07 PM)
Mpl90's Avatar
The PSEye seems standard for every SKU to me, since it works with the light on DS4. And all the other costs are ignored since...we can't calculate them as well as components costs. I still go with 449.99 $ as lowest price possible (and IMHO, the actual entry price).
ekim
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:08 PM)
ekim's Avatar
Are those B2B prices or end-consumer list prices?
Mihael Mello Keehl
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:08 PM)
Mihael Mello Keehl's Avatar
I cant see it at 400$ at all. 449-500$
dragonelite
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:09 PM)
dragonelite's Avatar
Was already willing to pay 499 euro if microsoft fucks up..
So it being cheaper is better.
zomgbbqftw
Pay attention.
(02-21-2013, 12:09 PM)
zomgbbqftw's Avatar

Originally Posted by ekim

Are those B2B prices or end-consumer list prices?

B2B prices. Since when can the consumer buy GDDR5 chips?

Originally Posted by Rice-Eater

Well the picture you painted is screams $400 as the entry price. And I would be very pleased with that if it is the case. They can release a premium model for $500 with PS Eye, PS+ trial, bigger HDD, and other junk for all I care. As long as the cheaper model is $400 to begin with.

They would lose money at $399 because the figures don't include assembly, shipping, cooling and power which can add a significant amount to the final cost.

Originally Posted by madmackem

The big cost is not the parts but R&D.

R&D costs are said to be much lower this time, and anyway, that cost is already sunk, there is no getting it back and amazingly SCE was profitable throughout the timeframe that PS4 was being developed.
Last edited by zomgbbqftw; 02-21-2013 at 12:13 PM.
ekim
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:10 PM)
ekim's Avatar

Originally Posted by zomgbbqftw

B2B prices. Since when can the consumer buy GDDR5 chips?

:(
Midas
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:11 PM)
Well, R&D on PS4 must be basically nothing compared to PS3.
iamshadowlark
Banned
(02-21-2013, 12:11 PM)
iamshadowlark's Avatar

Originally Posted by madmackem

The big cost is not the parts but R&D.

Its a off-the-shelf based design. R & D will be minimal.
Plinko
Wildcard berths that can't beat teams without a winning record should have homefield advantage
(02-21-2013, 12:11 PM)
Plinko's Avatar
I foresee $499 at minimum.
Herb Alpert
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:11 PM)
Herb Alpert's Avatar

Originally Posted by LukeTim

So, assuming Sony are willing to make a loss on each, the PS4 could possibly be surprisingly cheap?

To this amount, you have to add R&D, marketing, boxing, all this stuff. The costs are however reduced due to the amount.
They probably add a monthly fee system for the social features, which will reduce the cost.

I am not sure, but at launch the vita was evaluated around 170, and they sold it at a loss at 250. They tried to make money on memory card, which was not very smart in the way it was done.

The PS4 will not be cheap. I see it as a gamble, they go all-in. Either they sell cheap or they take a significant loss. Again. In my opinion, they're trying to kill the bee with the bazooka.
Graphics look pretty though.
NotLiquid
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:12 PM)
NotLiquid's Avatar
Not expecting it to go down below $400 if that's the case, and even then I feel it'd be reasonable to expect 50 or so more to that.
massoluk
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:12 PM)
massoluk's Avatar

Originally Posted by zomgbbqftw

So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

Total - 320-401

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.

Investment bank or something? Anyway, I kinda agree with your estimate, those RAM can't be cheap.
verbum
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:13 PM)
verbum's Avatar
If the $529 upper SKU price is real, that would mean with an extra controller @ $50, a game @ $60, and if I buy local with an 8% sales tax (Georgia state sales tax plus city/county sales tax), I would pay around $690 out the door. $640 on Amazon.
Pie and Beans
Look for me on the local news, I'll be the guy arrested for trying to burn down a Nintendo exec's house.
(02-21-2013, 12:13 PM)
Pie and Beans's Avatar
$450 to $480 I think. Maybe a $530 sku with Move Controller, 3 month Gakai/Playstation World trial, and a game packed in.
Jburton
Banned
(02-21-2013, 12:13 PM)
Jburton's Avatar
359.99 UK price.


That's my bet.



OP your cost list looks ok, the ARM chip and the video encode chip are probably off by about 50%.
raven777
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:14 PM)
raven777's Avatar
these also don't include the controller and PS EYE I guess.
Noisepurge
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:14 PM)
Noisepurge's Avatar
so, 499$/ for a basic model is my guess.
spwolf
If this poster agrees with you, you're probably doing something very wrong.
(02-21-2013, 12:18 PM)
spwolf's Avatar

Originally Posted by zomgbbqftw

So a couple of us at the bank have done a costing analysis this morning. I won't be able to give exact figures, as if we ever decide to release them publicly it will definitely blow my cover.

All figures in USD.

APU (CPU/GPU) - 85-90
8GB GDDR5 - 110-140
OS Chip (supposedly ARM based) - 12-18
Video encode/decode chip - 8-12
Blu-ray drive - 18-25
Hard drive - 38-50
I/O - 9-12
Wireless chip + antenna - 4
HDMI+HDCP - 11-15
Other - 25-35

Total - 320-401

These figures are preliminary, and do not include assembly costs, power costs, cooling or shipping as the final design has not been shown and can't be estimated at this time.

Please, please, please remember that this is based on the specification only and cost prices that we know, without a PS4 in the hand there will be mistakes.

without PSU, assembly, cooling? Probably another $80 missed? I am thinking they might have been able to reduce GDDR5 costs somehow.

Do we have PS3 latest costs? We have 2009 ones, not anything later than that.
AranhaHunter
Banned
(02-21-2013, 12:18 PM)
$399/500GB
$499/1TB

Lose money on the core, break even or make a little money on the premium. All SKUs include one DS4, one headset (confirmed), one PSE4YE
Rad-
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:18 PM)
Rad-'s Avatar
Ouch, so it's actually even more expensive than I first thought. I hope Sony is ready to take a hit in the beginning and still launch this for 399. Anything more and I'm out.
daninthemix
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:22 PM)
daninthemix's Avatar
And that doesn't include a controller, which doesn't look cheap to me.
LCfiner
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:27 PM)
LCfiner's Avatar
Interesting. Still kinda amazing to me that they decided to put so much fast RAM in there. big cost driver.

I've been flip flopping in my head about whether a base model will cost 400 or 450.

I figure they'll have a higher end model at 500 (say, bigger HDD and camera) so that they have at least one box on shelves that won't lose them quite so much cash

if I had to bet, I'd say two models at $400 and $500. I think they'll be aggressive on base model pricing.
Last edited by LCfiner; 02-21-2013 at 12:47 PM.
Guerrillas in the Mist
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:29 PM)
Guerrillas in the Mist's Avatar

Originally Posted by raven777

is this based on retail prices, or actually what Sony would pay by buying massive amounts?

You can't buy separate GDDR5 RAM, it's usually found in PC GPUs, but it's fair to say that it probably costs a fair bit more than bog-standard PC DDR3.
EGM1966
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:30 PM)
EGM1966's Avatar
If accurate then I'm guessing $399 assuming Sony happy to launch at cost or slight loss to keep price down until production cost reductions kick in and focus on usual SW/services (and PSN Plus) to bring in profit initially.

Could be more depending on HDD option (or options) if Sony want to offer multiple HDD skus (if I was them I wouldn't personally - I'd just offer one sku and allow people to swap the HDD if they want a'la the PS3 at their own additional cost - HDD could be 320 or say 500GB).
Moral Panic
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:33 PM)
Moral Panic's Avatar
Are they using 4Gb GDDR5 chips?
zomgbbqftw
Pay attention.
(02-21-2013, 12:35 PM)
zomgbbqftw's Avatar

Originally Posted by Moral Panic

Are they using 4Gb GDDR5 chips?

That's what we've based the cost on.
Lagspike_exe
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:35 PM)
Lagspike_exe's Avatar
That GDDR5 cost is insane. I'm really shocked the Sony managment allowed this. Still, it's going to be amazing for (hardcore) consumers.
Untalkative_Bunny
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:36 PM)
Untalkative_Bunny's Avatar
People sometimes overestimate the cost of assembly and shipping. The labor required to make an ipad is around $10. you can probably stuff 10k consoles in a 40' container, which would cost $5k USD to ship from factory to South Lousiana or Houston ports. So 50 cents per console.

Cooling + powersupple could also be pretty low cost, although I have no clue what the TDP effect of 8GB of gddr5 is.

edit: and they had to put 8GB of ram in, or MS would win the marketing battle. Money well spent imo.
Kouriozan
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:37 PM)
Kouriozan's Avatar
R&D + shipment + marketing.
Yeah I can see $399 if Sony is willing to sell this at a loss for some time.
Otherwise $449 is still fine if the games are worth it.
iamshadowlark
Banned
(02-21-2013, 12:38 PM)
iamshadowlark's Avatar
Interesting thread. ZOMGWTFBBQ seems pretty vested in these things to from prior conversations.

Definitely see maybe a $399/$499 sku split.
Lord-Audie
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:39 PM)
Lord-Audie's Avatar
I would love it to be $249 just to see the meltdowns.

I think the internet would explode.
pitcairn55
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:39 PM)
pitcairn55's Avatar

Originally Posted by Jburton

359.99 UK price.


That's my bet.

The 300 rumoured in The Times the other day certainly looks a lot less likely after last night.
DBT85
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:40 PM)
DBT85's Avatar

Originally Posted by daninthemix

And that doesn't include a controller, which doesn't look cheap to me.

It's got a light, a touch pad and a 3.5mm jack. These aren't going push the price up that much.

Also to remember about the RAM, they are potentially going to be ordering more of it than any one company ever has in history. Who knows how far that will bring costs down.
zomgbbqftw
Pay attention.
(02-21-2013, 12:41 PM)
zomgbbqftw's Avatar

Originally Posted by Lord-Audie

I would love it to be $249 just to see the meltdowns.

I think the internet would explode.

Sony's balance sheet and share price would have an equal and opposite reaction.
alundra
Junior Member
(02-21-2013, 12:41 PM)
sorry sony. $399 or i'm out
GlamFM
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:42 PM)
GlamFM's Avatar
499$ I guess.

Im cool with that.


Originally Posted by iamshadowlark


Definitely see maybe a $399/$499 sku split.


Yeah, maybe definitely.
Jarnet87
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:42 PM)
Jarnet87's Avatar

Originally Posted by LukeTim

So, assuming Sony are willing to make a loss on each, the PS4 could possibly be surprisingly cheap?

they were losing money when the PS3 system launched at $500 and $600 per unit, almost all consoles lose money per unit at first. With all the specs and cloud gaikai bullsh*t all I kept hearing in my head was $599 minimum. Sony may have changed some of their errors with the PS4, price is not going to be one of them me thinks.
frankie_baby
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:43 PM)
Sony aren't in a position to eat a big loss, yeah some but not much, my crystal ball smells five hundred and ninety nine dollars, though again with a 499 SKU though this time they'll probably focus on the lower priced one
TheDanger
Member
(02-21-2013, 12:44 PM)
TheDanger's Avatar
It'll be 499$ I think.

Thread Tools