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Pachter interview: Nintendo here to stay, PS4 won't be $599; PS4 cheaper than Nextbox

Kazerei

Banned
I kind of feel bad for the rap he gets around here. And after listening to the interview also, he has completely a realistic outlook about Nintendo IMO. Some tidbits:

  • Jack Tretton told Pach they definitely will not charge $599 again.
  • Strongly thinks Kinect 2.0 will be bundled with 720 and make it more expensive than PS4
  • Thinks everything on PSN will be behind a paywall, except multiplayer
  • Feels certain The Last of Us will have a PS4 version
  • Talked to Sony about Agent, Sony's words: "It's still under development".
  • Nintendo's not going anywhere. Can go 20-30 years losing money like they are now before being in trouble.

Starts around the 34 minute mark: http://www.gamertagradio.com/new/20...day-gamertag-radio-michael-pachter-interview/

I thought Nintendo already is in trouble? I'm confuzzled.
 

Alias Greed

Neo Member
Why is there days when Pachter seems to have a grudge against Nintendo and than days where he's fine with them? Confuses me.

As an Analyst he's telling you the individual buyer whether buying Nintendo Stock is good for you and a good way to make money for you as an individual. But Nintendo GAF Spins this to Nintendo is dead jokes to hide their anger and bash the man. He's just doing he's job telling you not to invest in nintendo because YOU will lose your money.

That doesn't mean nintendo is going to die or anything.
 

Az

Member
I agree about Nintendo, disagree about PS4/NextBox pricing. They will be very close in pricing, though.
 

Alx

Member
They are not meant as move tracking light.

They are. Sort of. They're meant to be tracked by the camera, only the press release doesn't mention motion games but only user localization.

Furthermore, PlayStation®4 Eye senses the color of DUALSHOCK®4's light bar to judge the positions of multiple players, and set characters in the same positions or let a character talk to a particular player, enabling players to enjoy games in new way. PlayStation®4 Eye also supports PlayStation®Move motion controller. It detects the motion of PS Move more precisely, and reflects players' in-game motion more accurately than ever.
http://www.joystiq.com/2013/02/20/playstation-4s-dual-shock-4-eye-camera-detailed/
 

Krilekk

Banned
So when Kinect was launched it cost about $50 to build that thing. 24 million units later price must've come down a lot. So how exactly can a Kinect 2.0 which just uses higher resolution cameras make a system more expensive than the one that is supposedly superior in every other aspect? Better GPU, much more expensive RAM, cameras included, touchpad LED controller ... even if you're the world's worst analyst and predicted that nobody will launch a next gen console before 2014 you just have to see that your math doesn't add up. I mean what, does he expect that every 720 will have to pay $100 for a Win 8 license?
 

Vexxan

Member
Pachter's prediction are always obvious or batshit crazy. Been a while since I could take what that man says seriously.
 

Paches

Member
So when Kinect was launched it cost about $50 to build that thing. 24 million units later price must've come down a lot. So how exactly can a Kinect 2.0 which just uses higher resolution cameras make a system more expensive than the one that is supposedly superior in every other aspect? Better GPU, much more expensive RAM, cameras included, touchpad LED controller ... even if you're the world's worst analyst and predicted that nobody will launch a next gen console before 2014 you just have to see that your math doesn't add up. I mean what, does he expect that every 720 will have to pay $100 for a Win 8 license?

Maybe he thinks they will bump up to 8 gigs GDDR5 and come out about even with PS4 specs and throw in the camera on top.
 

REV 09

Member
PS4 version of TLoU sounds great. I sold my ps3 a year ago and this was the only title that i was really looking forward to before PS4 launched.

I would be shocked if the PS4 was cheaper than 720.
 

Izick

Member
Cheaper than the Nextbox...oh shit.

nm2zEfC.gif
 

Wiz

Member
Nintendo can take medium sized losses every year for the next 50 years and STILL be in business. And even after that, they will have all their IP's, assets, etc which are very valuable.

Strange to hear this from Pachter, but it's completely true.
 

pvpness

Member
Speak for yourself. Personally, I can't stand his flip-flopping.

jgoudX71iQaCO.png

There's definitely a huge group on GAF that dislike the man. It's like 50/50. I think a lot of people lose sight of the fact that he doesn't analyze the VG industry professionally; He's not getting paid to do so. That's why some of his more... off the wall predictions can hurt feelings imo.

I think he's hilariously self aware.
 

meppi

Member
New Xbox more expensive eh?
They better come out kicking and screaming with lots of games that appeal to me, otherwise it'll be a long time before I buy new hardware this gen.
 

Berg

Member
First reply posts in patcher threads are becoming boring and super predictable.
"What ever patcher says, I'll say the opposite!"
Someone step up to the plate with some creative patcher posts please.
 

MisterHero

Super Member
As an Analyst he's telling you the individual buyer whether buying Nintendo Stock is good for you and a good way to make money for you as an individual. But Nintendo GAF Spins this to Nintendo is dead jokes to hide their anger and bash the man. He's just doing he's job telling you not to invest in nintendo because YOU will lose your money.

That doesn't mean nintendo is going to die or anything.
Citation needed. He was the one making comparisons to Dreamcast, which even context doesn't make sense at all. To be fair though, it probably is just games media picking apart his quotes looking for headlines.

There's been a very negative outlook for Nintendo since the NES, so this "meme" doesn't begin and end with Nintendo fans. I will agree that by focusing on Nintendo's exact present situation will look bad. They've made some dumb decisions. However, what the media sees and proclaims isn't the definitive future.

Nintendo was in a weak spot in 2003, so no one could predict that announcing DS in 2004 would amount to anything. Even when Nintendo annouced the Revolution controller the media was still against them. Even AFTER the Wii and DS run, people are still convinced Nintendo's in a sink-or-swim situation.

Nintendo could be one of the most profitable hardware makers/publishers years from now and it would still be construed as languishing in the exhausted videogame industry. Even in the GCN/GBA era, they were competing with EA and Activision for #1 publisher.

Phoenician_Viking said:
Very stupid way to use, or rightly not use the money. They could build and expand so much with 1-2 billion.
Nintendo supposedly IS re-structuring.
 
He only entered the industry during the PS2 era, most here know more about videogames than he does. Even when he talks about his supposed area of expertise he rarely says anything that's correct except when it's painfully obvious.

Well, whatever, carry on.
 

Bulzeeb

Member
I thought Nintendo already is in trouble? I'm confuzzled.

being in trouble is different than going out of bussiness, the scenario nintendo is facing right now is most likely a huge drop in proffits and loss of money, not a possible bankruptcy or anything like that
 
MS is going the cell phone plan route

Microsoft will be the most expensive, unless you buy a 2-year contract for Live. Then it will still be the most expensive, but people won't be spending it all at once so they will think they're spending less.

My guess is a $600 stand alone system.

$400 with 2-year $15/month contract
 

pvpness

Member
Nintendo supposedly IS re-structuring.

They are, but it seems like most of it was based around the new building, some R&D, and trying to get up to speed on network implementation. Worthy pursuits no doubt, but they look sad next to the idea of a Nintendo Touchstone etc. We'll probably see the fruits of those actions latter half of this generation, early next.
 
MS is going the cell phone plan route

Microsoft will be the most expensive, unless you buy a 2-year contract for Live. Then it will still be the most expensive, but people won't be spending it all at once so they will think they're spending less.

My guess is a $600 stand alone system.

$400 with 2-year $15/month contract

That sounds just sooo high.

I don't know. $400 with a contract seems like something they wouldn't do. It doesn't lower the barrier enough IMO.

$299 with a 2-year contract at $15 per month is still $660. That seems a little easier to swallow
 

THE:MILKMAN

Member
I really don't think there would be much between the BOM's of PS4/720. The extra CUs and GDDR5 will cost more for PS4 but the 720 has 32MB of eSRAM that is also expensive and hard to make (See Wii U).

Then there is the Kinect unit that is rumoured to be included as well as dedicated silicon in the system for it. Also a advanced audio chip (more expensive than PS4?)Plus if the rumour of a upgraded CPU for 720 is true you can add that too. Everything else seems to be give and take.

I do think the base 720 will likely be less than the base PS4 though. Microsoft I assume can afford to lose more money than Sony.
 
There will be A LOT of bitter tears here if PS4 is the same price ... or oh lord ... cheaper than nextbox.

Is there any way we can possibly estimate what the new Kienct will cost?

There's that thread floating around on what the new PS4 is going to cost. It would be interesting to do something similar on the Kinect to have some estimation of "hey, that thing is really fucking expensive". Kinda like how the Gamepad is like 50% of the BoM for the WiiU
 
I firmly believe the console will cost $499.99.

The six hundred dollar cost of the Playstation 3 was a great value.
The console came with arguably the best blu-ray player something that cost 200-300+ alone at launch. Playstation 1,2, compatibility. SACD, solid hardware, a new generation of playstation titles, etc etc But what hurt Sony is the marketing people didn't really know what they were getting so a lot of people complained about cost. the rebrand playstation 2.0 helped but the damage was already done.

I find it sad and funny that the playstation console still provides new games while other systems moved on to their new systems or dropped support heavily for their units. Futhermore the same people will buy 400-600 apple devices every year and complain about a unit that will last them 6-10 years with a one time fee at a fraction of the aforementioned devices cost.

With that being said the Playstation 4 will come with relatively industry standard components
(with a few exceptions) this time around so the cost should not be that high. I think the cost will be the result of packing in the camera, controller, and the new ear piece. Sony could pack a system with twice the power of what was announced at the meeting and anything near 600.00 will raise a commotion. So The best thing they can do is take a loss and charge for anything beyond the basic multiplayer component.
 

dancmc

Member
That sounds just sooo high.

I don't know. $400 with a contract seems like something they wouldn't do. It doesn't lower the barrier enough IMO.

$299 with a 2-year contract at $15 per month is still $660. That seems a little easier to swallow

If I have to pay for their live/service; I would rather pay for the more expensive console and then have a more nominal yearly fee (like $60-80). I hope I am asked to buy a $15 or $20/month live contract....screw that.
 
Sony's decision to announce early that there will be no BC on PS4 ensure I won't be buying Last of Us or any other game. If there's a PS4 version, I'll consider it based on how good I think the PS3 version I rented or borrowed was.
 
If I have to pay for their live/service; I would rather pay for the more expensive console and then have a more nominal yearly fee (like $60-80). I hope I am asked to buy a $15 or $20/month live contract....screw that.

Yeah, I would rather do the same.

The $299 with contract is not for us though. It's for the people that either are used to financing items, don't have a lot of disposable income, or don't actually equate the cost of a contract out to what they're really going to be paying.
 
Out of curiosity love to see Pachter's predictions versus what ended up happening . What's the ratio is success Michael has, anyone have any info?

His NPD predictions usually beat the GAF average, IIRC.

If he posted his predictions in the regular GAF NPD threads he would regularly be in the top 5 most accurate.
 

Zemm

Member
Feels certain The Last of Us will have a PS4 version

This has such a high chance of happening that I will be waiting and not picking it up for the PS3, even just a resolution bump and some (better) AA would be a big upgrade.
 
When did they ever say they would do that? The controller light isnt for that reason

Of course it is. The status light idea had some merit in the developer prototype but not now it's no longer visible to the person holding it.
It's not the move controller because it's not the freehand move controller, but the functionality is shared, though the visibility is more limited.
 

dancmc

Member
Yeah, I would rather do the same.

The $299 with contract is not for us though. It's for the people that either are used to financing items, don't have a lot of disposable income, or don't actually equate the cost of a contract out to what they're really going to be paying.

Yes. I don't mind alternative options for pricing, etc; but I don't want the only way to get live next gen to be their 15-20/month subsidized contract option.
 

clav

Member
Now with these expectations, if they are different from the actual announcements, investors are going to sell stock.
 

Feindflug

Member
So when Kinect was launched it cost about $50 to build that thing. 24 million units later price must've come down a lot. So how exactly can a Kinect 2.0 which just uses higher resolution cameras make a system more expensive than the one that is supposedly superior in every other aspect? Better GPU, much more expensive RAM, cameras included, touchpad LED controller ... even if you're the world's worst analyst and predicted that nobody will launch a next gen console before 2014 you just have to see that your math doesn't add up. I mean what, does he expect that every 720 will have to pay $100 for a Win 8 license?

Yeah I was thinking the same thing...what I get from the rumors about Durango is that MS is going for a cheaper system overall with the inferior hardware components and all.

I guess though if Kinect 2.0 is really expensive and they have a PS4 like controller (do we have any rumors about that btw?) I could see Durango price to be the same or really close to the PS4.
 

vgJames

Banned
You can't deny he's a successful guy career wise but I'm not fond on how he has become a celebrity within the game industry. While privately he may compile indepth analyst reports of other fields for use at Wedbush he should step away from his seemingly random (often flip-floping) bold gaming predictions. His 15 minutes of fame need to end and he should go back to being a successful suit.

On another note, Wiki's description of him gave me a laugh. The tone is hilarious, I'm surprised it hasn't been formalized.

Pachter is often known for his analysis of video game-related topics. He sometimes comments on specific video games, often with sales projections. With regards to Madden NFL 07, for instance, he said "It could do 1 million units in 5 days." Beyond specific titles, Pachter also analyses specific video game companies. In 2007, for example, he analyzed the state of Electronic Arts by saying "They've made tons of progress." He even analyzes company financials. For example, in 2004 he called Activision's sales estimates too cautious, suggesting that investors "[...] like optimism. We don't like conservatism." He once analyzed the future of major Japanese video game companies, suggesting that Nintendo and Sony were in good financial health but that Capcom could face a buyout because of their valuable franchises.

Pachter is known to also analyze other aspects of the video game industry, such as retailers. He spoke positively of the GameStop-EB Games merger in 2005, arguing that "initial sellthrough will likely be higher than in the past." Regarding the video game industry as a whole, he issues statements such as "Software sales were remarkable." Pachter believes that all video games will be streamed from the cloud by 2050. He believes the change will benefit everyone but retailers and low-income gamers who rely on used games.

Reflecting on cross-cultural differences, Pachter praised Japanese game developers but noted their inability to break through in the West, saying "The Japanese development community is supremely talented … but they aren’t raised in Western culture, they don’t think like Westerners, so we aren’t seeing the same type of games produced by them."

At times, Pachter criticizes the sentiments of video gamers. For example, with regard to controversy over the ending of Mass Effect 3, he said "That incident was a great example of what a whiny group gamers are in general," saying that "[game publisher Electronic Arts] handled it fine." He argued that gamers should be less demanding, or else "whiny gamers are only going to cause their beloved games to take even longer between episodes."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Michael_Pachter
 
PS4 going to cost $598 confirmed?

Same. I'm somewhat surprised that there may be a chance that the Next Xbox will be more expensive considering what the speculation says about the hardware in comparison to the PS4. I've always thought Agent was vaporware, so seeing that it's still in development is a surreal thing for me. Why would they hang on so long unless they actually have something? Wtf is going on with that game??

They're most likely proceeding with a small team, few steps at a time.
A similar scenario of what's probably happening with the other three popular give-us-some-new-info-now titles (Final Fantasy Versus, Last Guardian and Half Life 3).
 

Freki

Member
Don't underestimate Sony.

You only buy once like they do with Vita games.

You buy Last of Us on PS3, code for the PS4 version.

(That's my guess.)

That would be incredibly smart. I hope MS and Sony do this for their first party cross-gen titles (and third party as well if they are allowed, but this could be difficult...)
 

Izick

Member
I think he's a great entertainment guy, but I don't really consider his opinion all that knowledgeable. He knows enough about the business to come off as smart, but his prediction record isn't exactly that great.
 

teo72

Neo Member
If the leaked and offical current specs are true and not tweaked in any way, and ends up being the final specs. Then as I see it, Microsoft with the weakest machine and blocking used games, will have to be cheaper or at least seem cheaper in order to be competetive. Or else Nextbox might very easely become Ex-Box (Pun intended).

Personally I don't think this will be the case. I think both MS and Sony are hard a work refining and tweaking the specs in order to have the best possible Consoles for the money they are willing to spend. Only come E3, after specs are finally locked down, will tell. (Or maybe leakes before E3 but after specs are locked down. Seems hard to keep secrets these days...)
 
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