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Pachter interview: Nintendo here to stay, PS4 won't be $599; PS4 cheaper than Nextbox

clav

Member
I think he's a great entertainment guy, but I don't really consider his opinion all that knowledgeable. He knows enough about the business to come off as smart, but his prediction record isn't exactly that great.

He's important because investors rely on him for stock information, not GAF.

Sell if the news is different.
 

Jumpman23

Member
MS will lose quite a few gamers if the next Sony box costs less. Of course I'll be getting both but come on Sony, save me some coin.
 
Basically Nintendo is going somewhere. . . away forever.

Thanks Pachter

heh

PS4 cheaper than Nextbox
from Pachter. . .

Anyway. Sony can do a low end model without the PSEye. Whilst Kinect will come bundled with every model of xbox.

PSEye would be relegated to Move-level developer adoption rate, whilst MS would push for Kinect integration in all games and we will see new stuff come out since it's in every model. I can see that happening.

Hopefully the games would be different at least, and it would not be third-party port twins, with nothing really different between them like this gen.
 

Amir0x

Banned
If PS4 comes out at $499, are they really in such a massively better situation? I really hope they come in at some shocking $399 price, shit drop the ram to 6GB and squeeze that badboy in the mentally acceptable price range mang.
 

AlexBasch

Member
Okay so...Pachter just predicts stuff that he thinks will happen or does he get inside info and then makes his predictions?
 

BadAss2961

Member
If the Durango is really more expense because of Kinect, wow. Easiest decision ever.
Omg, this. lol if Microsoft does that.

If the Last of Us will get a PS4 version, ND should let me know now so I can wait.
If PS4 comes out at $499, are they really in such a massively better situation? I really hope they come in at some shocking $399 price, shit drop the ram to 6GB and squeeze that badboy in the mentally acceptable price range mang.

$499 is expensive, but reasonable considering the specs. I don't think people should expect the price to be much less.
 

Balzac

Member
Jack Tretton told Pach they definitely will not charge $599 again.

Common sense could have told us that.

Strongly thinks Kinect 2.0 will be bundled with 720 and make it more expensive than PS4

We already knew kinect would be bundled from the leaked technical docs. Has he done a cost analysis based on the leaked specs? If not, this is pure conjecture and really not much different in terms of "analysis" than anyone else's guess.

Thinks everything on PSN will be behind a paywall, except multiplayer

Saying that everything except multi will be behind a paywall is silly. Netflix/Hulu will continue to be available to non-subscribers.

Otherwise, this is yet another "common sense" prediction. Cloud-streaming demos is not cheap.

Feels certain The Last of Us will have a PS4 version

Yeah, he's right; I'll give him this one.

Talked to Sony about Agent, Sony's words: "It's still under development".

Okay?
Nintendo's not going anywhere. Can go 20-30 years losing money like they are now before being in trouble.

This just in: the sky is blue
 
Thinks everything on PSN will be behind a paywall, except multiplayer.

This is yet another "common sense" prediction.

Wonder if voice chat is behind the paywall.

Okay so...Pachter just predicts stuff that he thinks will happen or does he get inside info and then makes his predictions?

So PS4 is going to be more powerful and cheaper than Durango?

He's on Sony's payroll:

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=47657521#post47657521

:)
 

Z3M0G

Member
  • Jack Tretton told Pach they definitely will not charge $599 again.
  • Strongly thinks Kinect 2.0 will be bundled with 720 and make it more expensive than PS4
  • Thinks everything on PSN will be behind a paywall, except multiplayer
  • Feels certain The Last of Us will have a PS4 version
  • Talked to Sony about Agent, Sony's words: "It's still under development".
  • Nintendo's not going anywhere. Can go 20-30 years losing money like they are now before being in trouble.

This all sounds reasonable to me...
 

Terrell

Member
When the guy talks financials, I have reason to trust him. Without a dollar value though, his analysis veers directly into the absurd more often than not.
 
Anyway. Sony can do a low end model without the PSEye. Whilst Kinect will come bundled with every model of xbox.

PSEye would be relegated to Move-level developer adoption rate, whilst MS would push for Kinect integration in all games and we will see new stuff come out since it's in every model. I can see that happening.

Hopefully the games would be different at least, and it would not be third-party port twins, with nothing really different between them like this gen.

I feel like Sony really has a lot of flexibility with the PSEye.

I think they will have to make an upfront assumption as to the response to Kinect 2.0.

If it is really going to be a big thing, then I think they will want to pack it in with every PS4. It gives them a bullet-point on the box and also gives them ports of the less advanced Kinect games.

If it's really more like Kinect 1.5 and not Kinect 2.0 then they can potentially leave it out of the box and get the cost down.
 

Satchel

Banned
No chance the PS4 is cheaper than the new Xbox.

Even IF Kinect was bundled in, the Xbox will be cheaper. The PS4 has its camera bundled in anyway.
 

Berg

Member
So... Basically Nintendo is going somewhere...namely away forever.

Thanks Pachter

lol 5 pages in and we still have people thinking they're a genius' posting the opposite of what patcher says.

anyways, would love to know the exact number of years nintendo could go on with making 2013 january sales.
 

Boss Man

Member
So PS4 is going to be more powerful and cheaper than Durango?

Somehow, I really doubt that. We'll see which one turns out to be false. Either that or Kinect 2.0 better be fucking phenomenal.
 
MS will lose quite a few gamers if the next Sony box costs less.

Backwards compatibility would help, and that's still a question mark.

If I were MS and they have BC, I'd come out at the presser and say "So, you are level 49 with nine prestiges in Black Ops 2? When you pop that disc into the <Durango release name>, it just works. And all your saved games and stats carry right on over. And you get to keep all of your Arcade games and their game saves too. We all know you have a backlog from our holiday sales".
 

JJD

Member
I kind of feel bad for the rap he gets around here. And after listening to the interview also, he has completely a realistic outlook about Nintendo IMO. Some tidbits:

  • Jack Tretton told Pach they definitely will not charge $599 again.
  • Strongly thinks Kinect 2.0 will be bundled with 720 and make it more expensive than PS4
    [*]Thinks everything on PSN will be behind a paywall, except multiplayer
  • Feels certain The Last of Us will have a PS4 version
  • Talked to Sony about Agent, Sony's words: "It's still under development".
  • Nintendo's not going anywhere. Can go 20-30 years losing money like they are now before being in trouble.

Starts around the 34 minute mark: http://www.gamertagradio.com/new/20...day-gamertag-radio-michael-pachter-interview/

That's how I see PSN going forward as well, and frankly I'm OK with that.
 

Seanspeed

Banned
Unless the PS4 is miraculously cheap($300-350), I think its pretty inevitable the new Xbox will be the cheaper alternative overall. Especially if they're running with Kinect and trying to appeal to as large an audience as possible. How many casuals are going to jump onboard if the price is scary($400+)? I dont think many. And it seems inevitable that the PS4 will be the more powerful machine, so....I think Microsoft would want to fight Sony on the price front.
 
Backwards compatibility would help, and that's still a question mark.

If I were MS and they have BC, I'd come out at the presser and say "So, you are level 49 with nine prestiges in Black Ops 2? When you pop that disc into the <Durango release name>, it just works. And all your saved games and stats carry right on over. And you get to keep all of your Arcade games and their game saves too. We all know you have a backlog from our holiday sales".

It would be a missed opportunity.

Would be funny looking how all 720 games have "block used games" thingy but have all your used 360 BC retail discs working fine. lol.
 

JCizzle

Member
Holy crap if Sony is cheaper, AND the reported specs of Durango pan out - big time yikes for Microsoft in that scenario. However, I do think Microsoft will be able to push a lower initial buy-in through the Comcast deal.
 

JJD

Member
1.2tn yen in cash and another 1tn yen in retained earnings.

Total in USD is about $24bn.

HOLY SHIT!!!

They could fucking buy Sony!

Correction. Just looked at their earnings statement, shouldn't go on memory for this stuff. D:

1tn in cash and securities, 1.4tn total retained earnings.

Around $16bn.

Well that isn't that far from Sony market cap until a little while ago right?

By the way, I'm not saying that they will do it.

Damn Nintendo can bleed money for years and years.
 

Hoo-doo

Banned
No chance the PS4 is cheaper than the new Xbox.

Even IF Kinect was bundled in, the Xbox will be cheaper. The PS4 has its camera bundled in anyway.

No it hasn't. Sony didn't even mention Move or the new PSEye during the reveal. There's absolutely no reason to think it'll be packed-in other than "I heard Microsoft is doing this so Sony will do it as well".
 

Kaako

Felium Defensor
Forget about cheaper, even IF the PS4 is priced the same as the 720 I think it still would be a pretty big surprise. I expect 720 to be the lower priced console even with Kinect 2.0 packed in.
 

Satchel

Banned
No it hasn't. Sony didn't even mention Move or the new PSEye during the reveal. There's absolutely no reason to think it'll be packed-in other than "I heard Microsoft is doing this so Sony will do it as well".

Were you watching the conference?

Serious question.

Were you? They mentioned BOTH Move and the camera, and said the camera will easily recognize faces for sign in and controller assignment. It's being bundled.
 
No it hasn't. Sony didn't even mention Move or the new PSEye during the reveal. There's absolutely no reason to think it'll be packed-in other than "I heard Microsoft is doing this so Sony will do it as well".

Were you watching the conference?

Serious question.

Were you? They mentioned BOTH Move and the camera, and said the camera will easily recognize faces for sign in and controller assignment. It's being bundled.

You're both right.

They did mention the both the Move and the PSEye during the conference.

They also didn't mention if it would be bundled or not.
 

shandy706

Member
LOL

Pachter says positive things about Sony and Nintendo, says NeXtbox to be really expensive.

Gaf ok with him now.


He's been wrong so many times....and right so few times (on Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, and other hardware/software/companies)...I'm not giving what he says even a second of consideration yet.
 

Yamauchi

Banned
How much were they worth at their peak?

I remember a few years ago people were claiming they could buy out Sony, lol.
At one brief time Nintendo had the second largest market capitalization of any Japanese company, peaking at around $100 billion. Given that over the last 3 years Sony's market cap has hovered in the 1.25-2.5 trillion yen range, it may have -- hypothetically -- been possible.
 
If investing in Nintendo will make you lose money, I can only wonder what investing in sony looks like. Or the stagnant msft, for that matter.
 
This is the state of gaming as it is today, lets
See how it changes

RLiY8Y9.jpg
 

JJD

Member
Just checked and Sony's market cap right now is 14.04 billions.

Nintendo could buy Sony by themselves.

And then bankrupt then both since they wouldn't have more money to pay operational costs! Lol!

Funny thing is that Nintendo's current market cap is a little smaller than Sony even with all that cash surplus.
 
If they did this before PS4 comes out that would be brilliant. I doubt there'll be a PS4 version personally though, or that it'd be a launch title if there is.

That would be a great way to do it.

They focus on goodwill (announce cross-buy before) or focus on profits (trying to get the double dippers).

I'd probably double-dip
 

Amir0x

Banned
Omg, this. lol if Microsoft does that.

If the Last of Us will get a PS4 version, ND should let me know now so I can wait.

$499 is expensive, but reasonable considering the specs. I don't think people should expect the price to be much less.

$599 was "reasonable" considering what was in PS3 too, but the question isn't whether the component parts technically are being offered at a steal, but whether the price is acceptable for what will primarily be a gaming machine at the mass market. Is $499 the type of price where PS4 can wiggle down fast enough to be competitive with Durango, for example, who will almost certainly come down at $399 or less?
 
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