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Wario64
works for Gamestop (lol)
(03-09-2013, 11:35 PM)
NEW



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From @geoffkeighley



Last edited by Wario64; 03-10-2013 at 06:55 PM.
DaBoss
Member
(03-09-2013, 11:36 PM)
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Was just going to post this. He also thinks that next-gen games are going to be priced at $70.

https://twitter.com/geoffkeighley/st...27646742216705


His LTD predictions seem silly (too high). If the next-gen console LTDs are that, then why would it be the final generation? Makes no sense since it would like this generation.
Anth0ny
Member
(03-09-2013, 11:37 PM)
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Will we refer back to that image in 2018 and laugh?
lordchompy
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(03-09-2013, 11:37 PM)
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Nostradamus speaks again.
AZ Greg
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(03-09-2013, 11:37 PM)
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I actually think those sales predictions are decent.
CouldBeWorse
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(03-09-2013, 11:38 PM)
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Reasonable percentage split, but the total numbers are too high across the board.
Soulflarz
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(03-09-2013, 11:38 PM)
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Soo anyone/everyone(or noone...) else not agree with this guy?
alr1ght
bish gets all the credit :)
(03-09-2013, 11:38 PM)
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So WiiU is a PS3 duct taped to a DS.
Spieler Eins
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(03-09-2013, 11:38 PM)
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Has the Pachter vs GAF show happened yet?
Coolwhip
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(03-09-2013, 11:38 PM)
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Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.
Servbot #42
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(03-09-2013, 11:39 PM)
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Originally Posted by DaBoss

Was just going to post this. He also thinks that next-gen games are going to be priced at $70.

https://twitter.com/geoffkeighley/st...27646742216705

You can bet some publishers will attempt to raise up prices for next gen, whether that sticks for all games going forward is another thing.
Meelow
Banned
(03-09-2013, 11:39 PM)
Kinda funny how the Wii U slides are like "Yeah...Just Nintendo"

While PS4 is like "OMG ram!!!!"

And Xbox 720 is like "multimedia"
Orayn
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(03-09-2013, 11:39 PM)
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Seems way, way too optimistic.
Tokyo Rain
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(03-09-2013, 11:39 PM)
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If next gen is last gen then what comes after? Or rather, what does the market transition to?
planetsmasherx1
Member
(03-09-2013, 11:40 PM)
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Pachter at SXSW: Music, Film, Interactive - where does hyperbolic bullshit fall under?
Lunar15
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(03-09-2013, 11:40 PM)
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This is actually pretty reasonable. Is it right? We'll find out. But definitely reasonable.
Drakeon
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(03-09-2013, 11:40 PM)
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Originally Posted by Coolwhip

Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

Why is growth unreasonable to expect? We're not judging all of next gen based on Wii U sales are we?
Duxxy3
Member
(03-09-2013, 11:40 PM)
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Breakings news

Wii U sells 200 million units

PS4/720 combined sell 60 million units
guek
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(03-09-2013, 11:40 PM)
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Personally I find it unlikely that the console gaming market will grow rather than shrink but only time will tell I suppose.

And I'd also like to say that projections this far in advance before the generation comes into full swing are almost never accurate.
Coolwhip
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(03-09-2013, 11:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by planetsmasherx1

Pachter at SXSW: Music, Film, Interactive - where does hyperbolic bullshit fall under?

Why is he even giving a presentation there? Could anyone explain that?
McHuj
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(03-09-2013, 11:41 PM)
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So if his sales scenario proves true, both MS and Sony will abandon consoles after each next-gen systems sells almost 100m units. ok. that makes sense.

The only way the next consoles are the last consoles is if they all bomb.
Ein Bear
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(03-09-2013, 11:41 PM)
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I really want to know where to send my application in for an analyst job. I bet I could spout bullshit just as well as Pachter.
Smiles and Cries
To hell with Bono,
here's a worthy cause.
(03-09-2013, 11:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by Anth0ny

Will we refer back to that image in 2018 and laugh?

we need a reliable host for the images to bring them back in 2018
AZ Greg
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(03-09-2013, 11:41 PM)
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Originally Posted by Coolwhip

Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

Growth?

If you put this generation's LTDs together you get 247 million. If you combine his predictions for the upcoming generation you get 240 million. And that is using the high end of all his predictions.
Kayhan
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(03-09-2013, 11:42 PM)
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Impeccable
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(03-09-2013, 11:42 PM)
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It's a draw, console warriors lay down your swords.
ItWasMeantToBe19
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(03-09-2013, 11:42 PM)
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"Huge RAM makes innovation likely"

This is a weird statement especially considering that most of the games on PS4 will be multiplatform which will be on the system with less RAM and thus probably won't take advantage of it. And having a lot of RAM doesn't change the economic risk of making a risky title. I'm not sure I get where he's coming from with this...
Thoraxes
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(03-09-2013, 11:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by Anth0ny

Will we refer back to that image in 2018 and laugh?

Absolutely.

History repeats itself after all.
shira
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(03-09-2013, 11:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by Wario64

From @geoffkeighley



He didn't reference NeoGAF posts.
APA format dude or its plagarisim
Kayhan
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(03-09-2013, 11:43 PM)
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Originally Posted by ItWasMeantToBe19

"Huge RAM makes innovation likely"

This is a weird statement especially considering that most of the games on PS4 will be multiplatform which will be on the system with less RAM and thus probably won't take advantage of it. And having a lot of RAM doesn't change the economic risk of making a risky title. I'm not sure I get where he's coming from with this...

8GB DDR5 RAM means that PS4 games will be 240 fps.
Atomski
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(03-09-2013, 11:43 PM)
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I'm confused why its the last gen yet sells more then the current gen..
Sandfox
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(03-09-2013, 11:44 PM)
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I don't see the consoles selling anywhere close to that tbqh.
suppadoopa
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(03-09-2013, 11:44 PM)
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Pachter says 8th gen will be the last?

Gen 9 and 10 confirmed.
Y2Kev
The Last Guardian is Dead. Sorry.
(03-09-2013, 11:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by Coolwhip

Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

He's predicting a modest decline in total consoles sold. Can you at least do the math?
Coolwhip
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(03-09-2013, 11:44 PM)
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Originally Posted by Drakeon

Why is growth unreasonable to expect? We're not judging all of next gen based on Wii U sales are we?

Because if you take away the Wii anomality there was a big decline this gen compared to last. Now in a world with a lot more entertainment options, any sensible person would expect a decline in the coming gen. But not Pachter.
RibbedHero
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(03-09-2013, 11:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by DaBoss

Was just going to post this. He also thinks that next-gen games are going to be priced at $70.

https://twitter.com/geoffkeighley/st...27646742216705


His LTD predictions seem silly (too high). If the next-gen console LTDs are that, then why would it be the final generation? Makes no sense since it would like this generation.

The LTDs are that high because their lives are indefinite, i.e. they'll hit 85-95 million because they'll be the only consoles for 15 years +.

Its not that they'll sell so well and thus won't be the last generation, but rather since they're the last generation the will sell very well.
SneakyStephan
(03-09-2013, 11:45 PM)
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He predicts next gen will do better than current gen but next gen will be the last gen because wii U is selling bad.

WHICH IS IT PACHTER? MAKE UP YOUR MIND.

Sony is gona sell 85million consoles and then just say ok we'll stop now.

DERP
mAcOdIn
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(03-09-2013, 11:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by guek

Personally I find it unlikely that the console gaming market will grow rather than shrink but only time will tell I suppose.

And I'd also like to say that projections this far in advance before the generation comes into full swing are almost never accurate.

Well, in fairness, Patcher's calling for it to shrink too.

The increased ltd sales of the PS4 and "Durango" are coming at the expense of sales of the Wii U in contrast to the high sales of the Wii. There's about 19 million sales, going from their best case estimate, that they think won't happen in comparison to last generation(or this one if you wanna say that).
Thoraxes
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(03-09-2013, 11:45 PM)
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Originally Posted by Coolwhip

Because if you take away the Wii anomality there was a big decline this gen compared to last. Now in a world with a lot more entertainment options, any sensible person would expect a decline in the coming gen. But not Pachter.

I was assuming everyone will experience overall lower sales everywhere.
Cheebo
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(03-09-2013, 11:46 PM)
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Originally Posted by Coolwhip

Hahah.... Not only could anyone from gaf pull those slides from their behind, why is he expecting growth? Ah right because he is akways wrong.

Well its not really growth. He shows WiiU dropping more than half of Wii's installed based.

Using his numbers PS3+360+Wii is less than WiiU+PS4+720.
Stumpokapow
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(03-09-2013, 11:46 PM)
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Originally Posted by Anth0ny

Will we refer back to that image in 2018 and laugh?

There's a lot of hedging built in, it's pretty modest stuff. The stuff that deserves the most laughter is the I AM 100% CONFIDENT WII WILL SELL NEGATIVE UNITS stuff haha
Massa
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(03-09-2013, 11:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by ItWasMeantToBe19

"Huge RAM makes innovation likely"

This is a weird statement especially considering that most of the games on PS4 will be multiplatform which will be on the system with less RAM and thus probably won't take advantage of it. And having a lot of RAM doesn't change the economic risk of making a risky title. I'm not sure I get where he's coming from with this...

Xbox and PS4 will both have 8GB.

Originally Posted by SneakyStephan

He predicts next gen will do better than current gen but next gen will be the last gen because wii U is selling bad.

WHICH IS IT PACHTER? MAKE UP YOUR MIND.

Sony is gona sell 85million consoles and then just say ok we'll stop now.

DERP

Keep in mind you're just looking at a couple of slides and not the actual presentation.
Like the hat?
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(03-09-2013, 11:47 PM)
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I think any of the consoles selling 50m might be stretching it
C4Lukins
Banned
(03-09-2013, 11:47 PM)
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I actually agree with his lifetime sales predictions here.
pswii60
(03-09-2013, 11:47 PM)
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Originally Posted by Anth0ny

Will we refer back to that image in 2018 and laugh?

Yes, posting from our iWatches and iGlasses.
guek
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(03-09-2013, 11:48 PM)
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Originally Posted by mAcOdIn

Well, in fairness, Patcher's calling for it to shrink too.

The increased ltd sales of the PS4 and "Durango" are coming at the expense of sales of the Wii U in contrast to the high sales of the Wii. There's about 19 million sales, going from their best case estimate, that they think won't happen in comparison to last generation(or this one if you wanna say that).

Yeah I realize that but I'm not really counting Wii in this case.

I suppose I should have specified the hardcore gaming market. Clearly much of the wii casual market has moved on. I just don't see the PS4/Durango doing that much better than their predecessors.
10k
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(03-09-2013, 11:48 PM)
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Those numbers are almost as good as gen 7 and probably as high as gen 6. Gen 9 will occur. Whether all 3 console manufacturers are going to be there is the question.
DjRoomba
Banned
(03-09-2013, 11:48 PM)
Why does Pachter keep predicting doom for Nintendo, taking it back, then doing it again?
I really doubt Wii U will sell worse than Ps4/Durango and I doubt it will be Nintendo's last console. Sony/Ms's last consoles? I think that could be quite possible, but I am sure Nintendo who have a dedicated hardware development team certainly aren't done yet
BasilZero
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(03-09-2013, 11:49 PM)
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Those figures seem a bit believable but I would lower the PS4/Next Xbox numbers by a few mil.

Wii-U sounds about right.

Though "Next Gen is Last Gen" is just too hilarious.
Coolwhip
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(03-09-2013, 11:49 PM)
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Originally Posted by Cheebo

Well its not really growth. He shows WiiU dropping more than half of Wii's installed based.

Using his numbers PS3+360+Wii is less than WiiU+PS4+720.

True, but I think it's wrong to just add up Wii numbers to ps360 though.

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