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Fire at Hynix DRAM focused factory (40-50% of Hynix's DRAM output, supply ok)

S

Skeff

Member
Looks like just one person injured and a few being checked in hospital as a precaution, Which is definitely good news.

As far as Sony are concerned, Hynix began production in Q1 of 4Gbit GDDR5 chips, so Hopefully for them they aren't using Hynix as a supplier but it is possible, although the articles coming out seem to indicate this is more to do with Hynixs ability to produce SSD's rather than RAM.

Either way the BoM just increased on both the XB1 and PS4, after their current contract runs out (or it will not reduce as quickly as hoped) as this will affect the entire industry.
 
H

herod

Member
I don't read "prioritized" NAND production as "this is all that is made here".

Also, other plants will now have to correct the shortfall, so this incident will have a restrictive effect across the board.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Skeff said:
Looks like just one person injured and a few being checked in hospital as a precaution, Which is definitely good news.

As far as Sony are concerned, Hynix began production in Q1 of 4Gbit GDDR5 chips, so Hopefully for them they aren't using Hynix as a supplier but it is possible, although the articles coming out seem to indicate this is more to do with Hynixs ability to produce SSD's rather than RAM.

Either way the BoM just increased on both the XB1 and PS4, after their current contract runs out (or it will not reduce as quickly as hoped) as this will affect the entire industry.
Click to expand...

I think it is going to effect both SSD and RAM unfortunately.

Bloomberg stated it's a DRAM factory still after an interview with Hynix PR, and another site, though it does quote part of the Story to Bloomberg, says from other sources, well, have to wait and see as memory quotes have stopped being sent out from suppliers:

http://www.techcentral.co.za/hynix-fire-could-send-memory-prices-soaring/43418/
 
M

maabus1999

Member
herod said:
I don't read "prioritized" NAND production as "this is all that is made here".

Also, other plants will now have to correct the shortfall, so this incident will have a restrictive effect across the board.
Click to expand...

Yeah, not sure why the title is NAND? We honestly don't know 100% what the production setup is (remember two FABs here at same facility), and there is some credible sources saying it still makes DRAM.
 
KungFucius

KungFucius

King Snowflake
I hope nothing but their equipment got destroyed and they have to retool.

(I work in R&D for Semiconductor Capital equipment )
 
K

kris.

Banned
Wait, I'm confused/worried.

Does this mean that prices are about to skyrocket for GFX cards? I'm in the middle of building my first gaming pc and was already on the fence about shilling out $250 for one, dammit. :(


Glad no one was hurt though!
 
Q

QaaQer

Member
maabus1999 said:
Yeah, not sure why the title is NAND? We honestly don't know 100% what the production setup is (remember two FABs here at same facility), and there is some credible sources saying it still makes DRAM.
Click to expand...

It's all qualified rumour at this point except for Wuxi's government supplied information, so it is all qualified rumour at this point.

Interesting times for Sony...what a console season.
 
J

jet1911

Member
kris. said:
Wait, I'm confused/worried.

Does this mean that prices are about to skyrocket for GFX cards? I'm in the middle of building my first gaming pc and was already on the fence about shilling out $250 for one, dammit. :(


Glad no one was hurt though!
Click to expand...

I'd like to know too lol

I wanted to buy a new GPU at the end of octobre but maybe I'll buy one sooner...
 
N

Not Spaceghost

Spaceghost
razgriz417 said:
Article says nVidia gets alot of their GDDR for video cards from Hynix
Click to expand...

charlton-heston-laughing-gif.gif


I can't breathe
 
M

maabus1999

Member
I've been watching this update through Google News searches: Latest updates from one site:

http://www.kitguru.net/components/memory/faith/hynix-fabs-on-fire-after-chemical-explosion/

http://www.kitguru.net/components/m...ory-shipments-on-hold-after-hynix-explosions/

Basically they are saying ALL MEMORY shipments have stopped in the Far East due to this event. And that this FAB was a major producer of GDDR5 for Nvidia (and possibly others who use it). And even if companies, liked AMD, don't use this FAB for GDDR5, the article points out that AMD will most likely see huge supply decreases and price spikes as Nvidia and others search the market.

GDDR5 may get really, really tight according to them. Those new Hawaiian Islands video cards launching in October may see an effect from this...
 
G

GodofWine

Member
Id be shocked if MS and Sony dont have multi year agreement with annual pricing locked in...probably lower price each year too, so they wont be hit with pricing issues. Supply issues maybe, but a manufacturer couldnt not ship them their goods if they are available, in order to gouge spot market buyers. At worst they would have supply shortages which theyd probably cover elsewhere, these are two "big boys", they will be ok

If, IF...they are for some reason buying spot market they should hire me, (supply chain is my forte`), they are gonna get hit in the wallet, but I cant see that happening.
 
T

Talamius

Member
TheExodu5 said:
It doesn't matter if Sony or nVidia are using them directly...this will affect prices of memory across the board.
Click to expand...

This right here. If you have to ask if a particular company is affected, the answer is probably yes. Directly (loss of a supplier) or indirectly (low supply + high demand = prices go up).
 
M

maabus1999

Member
GodofWine said:
Id be shocked if MS and Sony dont have multi year agreement with annual pricing locked in...probably lower price each year too, so they wont be hit with pricing issues. Supply issues maybe, but a manufacturer couldnt not ship them their goods if they are available, in order to gouge spot market buyers. At worst they would have supply shortages which theyd probably cover elsewhere, these are two "big boys", they will be ok

If, IF...they are for some reason buying spot market they should hire me, (supply chain is my forte`), they are gonna get hit in the wallet, but I cant see that happening.
Click to expand...

Can't 100% lock in a price for events out of a companies control in contracts. Always a clause to get out.

On that note, Micron is SURGING today on the news Hynix might have had a huge hit here:

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/apple-micron-rally-microsoft-linkedin-slip-2013-09-04
 
D

DopeyFish

Not bitter, just unsweetened
"The world's No.2 maker of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips, which had a 30 percent of the market in the second quarter, said the China plant it has suspended produces around 40 percent of its total DRAM output.
"

Well yuppppppppp

(Came from Reuters)
 
E

epaturun

Member
Have a read at this article from yesterday - coincidence?:

http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9242084/NAND_flash_prices_are_sliding_on_low_demand?taxonomyId=149


NAND flash prices are sliding on low demand
Flash makers will continue to restrict supplies to keep prices from crashing

By Lucas Mearian
September 3, 2013 05:12 PM ET
Add a commentinShare1
Computerworld - The manufacturer's price for NAND flash chips slid 5% to 10% in the second half of August, and they're expected to continue downward over the next few months.

The average price for NAND flash is now $4.90 for a 64Gbit chip and $2.90 for a 32Gbit chip, according to TrendForce.

According to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, NAND flash contract prices from manufacturers are weaker due to lower demand by laptop, tablet and even smartphone makers.

Mobile system makers who over the past year increased inventory of NAND flash for their systems are now backing off on new flash purchases, according to DRAMeXchange.

Currently, DRAMeXchange is projecting that fourth quarter flash capacity will grow by approximately 10% even as NAND Flash manufacturers continue to restrict supplies as a way to control prices. That's because many device manufacturers have already stockpiled NAND flash in preparation for higher sales, and as new flash plants come on line, supply will surge as demand will falls.

Even with new smartphones and tablets expected to launch this month September -- Apple has an event scheduled for next week at which it's expected to unveil new iPhones -- embedded flash capacity growth is still expected to be slack.
 
F

flyinpiranha

Member
Misleading thread title. NAND would make it seem like this won't affect certain supply of DRAM but most articles are pointing to the fact that it will affect DRAM supply.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
flyinpiranha said:
Misleading thread title. NAND would make it seem like this won't affect certain supply of DRAM but most articles are pointing to the fact that it will affect DRAM supply.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I've mentioned it a few times since credible sources have confirmed and correct earlier reports that were just a few short sentences. Hopefully a Mod comes by and changes it.

This story honestly is almost as big as the X1 release date, even though most people may not realize it. Nvidia, AMD, Apple, and Sony are going to be scrambling if this fire caused real damage (and from the pictures....)
 
S

sangreal

Member
DopeyFish said:
"The world's No.2 maker of dynamic random access memory (DRAM) chips, which had a 30 percent of the market in the second quarter, said the China plant it has suspended produces around 40 percent of its total DRAM output.
"

Well yuppppppppp

(Came from Reuters)
Click to expand...

yikes
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Depending how this turns out and how much of the GDDR5 supply just went up in smoke, the PS4 may be a godsend to scalpers the next few months if this FAB was a primary source...

Can anyone confirm that other GDDR5 suppliers are making 4Gb GDDR5 chips? I've only seen Hynix on a catalog. I know Samsung was once mentioned but they are just so tapped out making DRAM for phones lately.
 
P

Perkel

Banned
This means major problems for suppliers since hardware can't work without DRAM.


Also this depends what part of fab got destroyed. If it is GDDR5 part then Sony will be fucked as GPU producers.
 
P

Pound_lb003

Member
All I will say is the components for the PS4's/XB1's we'll be buying in November are already bought and currently being put together.

So I'd be really interested to see where the squeeze is going to happen.

Is there any chance (especially reading epaturun's post) that these manufacturers would have laid out contracts for long term business terms?

I mean, the squeeze will happen somewhere. Just a matter of where.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Mokubba said:
So shortages for PS4 next year then or too early to tell?
Click to expand...

Too short, they'll have some supply through the holidays, but if the plant is toast and was making GDDR5 chips, expect some major pain post holidays.

And if Hynix was the only one making these large GDDR5 chips, then Sony better have a vertical integration (supply chain) back up plan ready to go, but it may still take several months.
 
M

maabus1999

Member
Xamdou said:
So does MS or Sony get their DDR 3 and GDDR5 memory from Hynix?
Click to expand...

Unsure. DDR 3 is more common so while prices may go up, MSFT can find other suppliers.

Large GDDR5 chips on the other hand....

Well there is a reason Nvidia was working almost completely with Hynix. Not sure if Sony was, but honestly there isn't many other suppliers of the chips they are using.
 
S

Sidewinder

Member
maabus1999 said:
Too short, they'll have some supply through the holidays, but if the plant is toast and was making GDDR5 chips, expect some major pain post holidays.

And if Hynix was the only one making these large GDDR5 chips, then Sony better have a vertical integration (supply chain) back up plan ready to go, but it may still take several months.
Click to expand...

figures if true, Sony did everything right with the PS4 and they'd get fucked by a fire burning down the GDDR5 factory...
 
M

maabus1999

Member
beast786 said:
The stock market for Sony and apple didn't get affected. And they usually act extreme on this type of news.
Click to expand...

Because we don't know the effects yet, it will start with 1st order effects first (other DRAM suppliers) who are seeing huge swings in stock prices upwards.

2nd order effects will come later (usually a warning from said companies just like in the HDD issue from Thailand).
 
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