I wish someone would tweet that back to him.
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on the reliability of NPD data
- Thread starter 7DollarHagane
- Start date
My understanding is their issue with NPD is the lack of tracking digital game sales. Obviously doesn't affect console hardware.
It obviously doesn't account for all those digitally sold Xbox Ones, maaaan.
That's the thing that's really ridiculous to me.My understanding is their issue with NPD is the lack of tracking digital game sales. Obviously doesn't affect console hardware.
Yes, NPD isn't the best for games, due to not accounting for digital sales.
You don't buy consoles digitally. What console sales are NPD numbers missing out on exactly?
You're saying that there's something wrong with Americans supporting home grown products? Are you a Communist?
Chobel
Member
He's a clown.
darkside31337
Tomodachi wa Mahou
Its not trying to measure digital though. That has nothing to do with whether or not NPD's data is accurate or not.
LegendofLex
Member
It's a good thing we have transparency from all these gaming companies to show just how unreliable the NPD data is.
Oh wait, we don't.
Oh wait, we don't.
hey_it's_that_dog
benevolent sexism
I mean, it's true that it's not the ideal sampling of data, but unless someone has a reasonable hypothesis as to why it would be misrepresenting one console's sales more than another console's sales, we don't really have a big problem, as long as the point of NPD data is to trumpet our victories in the glorious console wars and not to pinpoint exact sales figures for specific products.
About as reliable as a random number generator. You can rely on what he does, not what comes out of him.
He also likes to sexually harass women through twitter. Guy is a F'in creep.
Sure, I think that's a fair point to make. But that also doesn't indicate that NPD's estimates of what they're supposed to represent are wildly inaccurate, it indicates that retail only data for a segment of the market is now less meaningful.
cyber_ninja
Member
Lolygon strikes again!!!
Jimmyfenix
Member
Ilúvatar;108644085 said:
I saw this comment last night and i was /dead multiple times.
There's more in the NPD thread.
Oh, so he wasn't actually talking about the console sales, which is what most people seem to think. He's like "hey, consoles sales is cool, but NPD's useless for sofwtware." I see no problem here.
Seems fine?
I mean, it's true about stuff like Steam, as evidenced by those great Ars articles the other day.
You know the logical conclusion. Time to unban the chartzz.
hey_it's_that_dog
benevolent sexism
I don't generally talk shit about video game industry figures but from what I've seen come out of his twitter he seems like a real piece of shit.
While the claim is completely stupid, I think Dent was saying something like "internal numbers from MS contradict NPD." Which I don't think is true anyway.
Saddest thing is that some companies do quote those numbers in press releases.
hey_it's_that_dog
benevolent sexism
These guys have just enough knowledge of statistics to make really stupid blanket skeptical claims without any real analytical insight.
Average all the NPD predictions, use that as the actual NPD, sell it to other websites.
Money on the table.
As has been stated earlier; the NPD should be statistically accurate for hardware sales; it uses a statistically strong sample size and as best as I can tell, is not missing any major hardware sales spots.
For software it's not nearly as useful; it does not track digital sales. Notice how game developers tend to just give out raw numbers sold rather than refer to the NPD data. With the advent of Steam, and both Sony & MS pushing digital delivery of games hard, data on how much a game sells should be taken with a grain of salt.
That said, I'd hold off on claiming the death of the X1 / WiiU. I suspect this fall / winter will be the real battle, as I think a lot of people (myself included) are waiting for more games to come out on X1. Titanfall did have the issue of being (eventually) available for X360 and PC; it should not have been seen as a system seller to the degree it was being forecast as.
WiiU is in a much worse situation, but a good group of 1st party games might be able to pull it out of the doldrums into a respectable place. The similarity of the PS4 & X1 did hit that system hard, though.
For software it's not nearly as useful; it does not track digital sales. Notice how game developers tend to just give out raw numbers sold rather than refer to the NPD data. With the advent of Steam, and both Sony & MS pushing digital delivery of games hard, data on how much a game sells should be taken with a grain of salt.
That said, I'd hold off on claiming the death of the X1 / WiiU. I suspect this fall / winter will be the real battle, as I think a lot of people (myself included) are waiting for more games to come out on X1. Titanfall did have the issue of being (eventually) available for X360 and PC; it should not have been seen as a system seller to the degree it was being forecast as.
WiiU is in a much worse situation, but a good group of 1st party games might be able to pull it out of the doldrums into a respectable place. The similarity of the PS4 & X1 did hit that system hard, though.
NPD is very accurate when it comes to hardware figures and retail sales, but without digital figures from the console manufacturers it doesn't tell the whole story in terms of overall software sales.
Sony claimed a few months back that 48% of Vita software sales are digital for example. And the PC market is probably like 99% digital these days. I'd be curious to know the retail/digital split on PS4 and Xbox One but we'll probably never know.
Sony claimed a few months back that 48% of Vita software sales are digital for example. And the PC market is probably like 99% digital these days. I'd be curious to know the retail/digital split on PS4 and Xbox One but we'll probably never know.
Nah, chartz still straight-up makes up numbers. NPD has said "oh, we only cover retail." We know what we're getting with them.
Didn't MS literally post "yeah, we've sold 5 million, go us!" yesterday? Or did I dream that last night?
Does he not realize that on these magical online sales PS4 has also been way ahead? Take a look at amazon, it was higher than the Xbox One the majority of the month (it was whenever I checked, just leaving room in case I missed the one moment it was higher). I don't even own a PS4 (own a Wii U and Xbox One) but I am so sick of these people whining all the time.Ben 'Fart in the wind' Kuchera
Retail sales can show demand, especially on hardware. Whether or not either is up a couple tens of thousands is irrelevant since it provides us with perspective on how the current industry is. In terms of software I can agree slightly, but no one is under the assumption that digital sales are included (at least I hope not).
Dr. Kitty Muffins
Member
Communists of the Soviet Union pretty much despised foreign goods and tried to keep things as domestic as possible. It is actually those who support supply side economics like Reagan who want things like free trade which opens the floodgates to a tsunami of foreign goods.
Hmm, actually didn't think about it this way. I really want to see a response to this from the people who doubt the NPD all of a sudden.
John Harker
Definitely doesn't make things up as he goes along.
For console games, totally valid. As mentioned, digital is roughly 10% of revenue on retail titles. Of course, if publishers want a more accurate read on how their games performing, they just call up Target or Gamestop or whoever, and ask. So, they get the most accurate reads. Do you see any of them crying? Nope. NPD gives them access to competitive data though, and it's broadly accepted as an accurate enough landscape to do prediction and market modeling.
For the industry as a whole, outside of console retail?
It's becoming less relevant, as digital for indie and mobile, and DL-only games is huge business, and that's not captured.
For the sake of console wars?
people need to STFU if they don't know what they are talking about (which I mean't various tweeters, not people here). Just because the industry as a whole is progressing digital, you can't use that as an argument to discredit NPD when you're specifically talking about retail console games, as that's not what NPD lacks in.
For the industry as a whole, outside of console retail?
It's becoming less relevant, as digital for indie and mobile, and DL-only games is huge business, and that's not captured.
For the sake of console wars?
people need to STFU if they don't know what they are talking about (which I mean't various tweeters, not people here). Just because the industry as a whole is progressing digital, you can't use that as an argument to discredit NPD when you're specifically talking about retail console games, as that's not what NPD lacks in.
RedNumberFive
Banned
$750,000 well spent Microsoft.
Hyperactivity
Banned
So the Dreamcast was actually the winner in the U.S?
anexanhume
Member
As silly as the rant is on the software sales, he says the hardware part is fine. The most egregious thing Gies did is simply speculate there weren't 0.5M or more XB1 sitting on shelves. Polygon never obfuscated the shipped vs sold numbers. Dent is the real culprit here IMO.
If you read what you linked, you'd find that the definition no longer comes from water.
TheDrowningMan
Member
This is the last time NPD appeared in a Polygon headline. It got a mention yesterday, but only in the context of Microsoft's press release.
http://www.polygon.com/2014/1/16/5317238/xbox-one-bestselling-console-in-us-last-month-npd-says
So apparently they do consider it worthy of report under certain circumstances.
I've never even seen an article or anything from him other than random tweets posted here. Why do people give a shit what he thinks?
Cbajd5
Member
Yeah, why else do you think California's had that drought? They're too far away for timely water shipments.
Cosmo Clock 21
Banned
I hope Jim Sterling puts people on blast next week
Neuromancer
Member
It's as reliable as a fart in the wind. The problem is sometimes farts have a way of being blown back into your face and catch you with your mouth open and everything.
7DollarHagane
Banned
This is why I wanted to make the topic about NPD, not him and didn't name names.
Entertainment Weekly used to use them when games coverage was bigger for them. It was amusing, to say the least.
Exploratory
Banned
Anyone have any actual knowledge on these claims?
Doubting them due to their source makes sense but investigating the claim is something I hope we can do.
Doubting them due to their source makes sense but investigating the claim is something I hope we can do.
it would be both wonderful and representative if his name was wordfiltered to "some guy"
"some guy said something stupid on twitter"
It was 5 million shipped not sold.