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Psycho_Mantis · May 22, 2014

Nibel said:
You're overestimating the Musou + Zelda + Wii U brands

Toooooooooo cute

These are the things going against Zelda Musou

1) gameplay is different and so Zelda fan base may not be interested
2) DW fan base are not on WiiU
3) WiiU has a really low install base

duckroll · May 22, 2014

shinra-bansho said:
Zelda Musou is sort of interesting from a sales potential standpoint, in that it's not a cross-media license.

With something like One Piece Musou, essentially TK is rely on it's musou fanbase, and then a portion of the fanbase of the popular manga/anime to care enough about the franchise to get a game with the characters in it, regardless of the type of game or quality of game. They may not even normally buy games regularly.

With Zelda though, it's already an established game franchise. The fanbase is really after a specific experience from LoZ games that Zelda Musou won't necessarily provide. I've seen some people pose that it may be able to attract both the dedicated Zelda fanbase and the musou fanbase, synergistically. But I'm wondering whether the former is much more selective about the nature and quality of the game they're willing to buy than the audiences TK manages to attract with their other licenses.

Maybe there are as many Link fanatics as there are Luffy fanatics though, I guess.

I definitely see what you're saying, but I don't think I agree with it. Here's why. Yes, this is not a "cross-media" license, but it's still pretty much just a take-one-franchise-and-make-it-in-another-genre game. It's not really that unique. Nintendo themselves have done this before. Super Mario RPG is probably the most famous example. But there's also Mario Golf, Mario Tennis, Metroid Prime, and even Super Smash Brothers.

I don't think Zelda fans are really super selective compared to other franchise fans with regards to what happens with Zelda. Speaking as a huge Zelda fan myself, I wouldn't really mind Zelda as a good action game. The question is really whether a Zelda Musou game is any good. I don't think it will be, and I don't really like Musou games personally, so I'm not interested in it at all. I honestly feel that being on the WiiU is a larger problem for this than the genre or whether Zelda fans are picky or not. That's what's going to kill most of the sales, because it's not going to be a must-have title, and it's on a pretty dead platform.

mclem · May 22, 2014

shinra-bansho said:
(For discussion from few pages ago) Are there a substantial portion of people buying the systems and not buying any games?

This comes back to an older discussion on system sellers and tipping points for purchase. The cross-gen software has been sufficient to tip the balance to a purchase, it has sold systems now, even if the consumer is really more interested in software yet to come.

So no, the new consoles aren't just selling "on hype."

Isn't this a roundabout argument? They're not selling "on hype" because they're selling, and therefore someone must be making a sensible purchasing decision to make them sell?

I think the assumption that someone is making a sensible purchasing decision is the one that's risky, because the very nature of making a purchase 'on hype' would imply that you're *not* making a sensible purchasing decision.

An interesting metric that might shed some light on it would be to investigate whether current PS4/WiiU owners have buyer's remorse over their purchase.

extralite · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
I honestly feel that being on the WiiU is a larger problem for this than the genre or whether Zelda fans are picky or not. That's what's going to kill most of the sales, because it's not going to be a must-have title, and it's on a pretty dead platform.

But since it releases after MK8 it surely will benefit from whatever boosts MK8 can provide. Players looking for their next game after MK8 might pick up Zelda Musou because it'll be a new release then.

Smiles and Cries · May 22, 2014

Psycho_Mantis said:
Toooooooooo cute

These are the things going against Zelda Musou

1) gameplay is different and so Zelda fan base may not be interested
2) DW fan base are not on WiiU
3) WiiU has a really low install base

they added Z-targetting tho

it is an interesting experiment, I want to think positive about the outcome

mclem · May 22, 2014

michaelius said:
3DS can't match PS2 in visuals.

Tales of the Abyss? Same fundamental game, much less slowdown on 3DS. That suggests that there's a fair chance the 3DS is more powerful than the PS2, even without comparing hardware numbers.

extralite · May 22, 2014

Type-Zero said:
Well you have to remember when Nocturne came out, almost no one knew what Shin Megami Tensei even meant. SMT IV is blessed with the fact the brand is new relatively well known due to infamous difficulty of Nocturne, Digital Devil Saga, Persona 3 and 4. Plus you even had a few on the DS Strange Journey and Devil children, the DS had a huge userbase and just seeing two SMT games on the wall can do wonders.

When you go from this:

SMT 1

SMT 2

To this :

SMT 3 aka Nocturne

Back to this:

SMT 4

That is a downgrade.

Ok your favorite rpgs this gen stand up to the old ones. But how about instead of standing up it actually walk past or possibly run past what you once liked, No one is gonna jump up for joy and pay $300 + for something to be able to stand up to something. they already had. Even if they buy it I'm sure they know they want better.

"Japan is simply moving towards smartphones it seems"

No one simply does something for no reason. You don't leave your home and simply go live in a cardboard box. They are leaving for a reason, they are not getting what they want, they go somewhere else. Not as much of a mystery as people make it out to be.

You left out the remakes and non numbered sequels on SNES and Saturn, so there is a gap suggested that wasn't really there. Anyway, I loved the visuals in SMTIV and going back to sprites is hardly a downgrade, it's simply a different style. And as a fan of stereoscopic 3D SMTIV is well ahead visually to Nocturne for me.

Nocturne has a very clean and simple look that is just timeless but its graphics weren't particularly impressive. The detail on the sprites in IV on the other hand is unmatched by Nocturne.

duckroll · May 22, 2014

extralite said:
But since it releases after MK8 it surely will benefit from whatever boosts MK8 can provide. Players looking for their next game after MK8 might pick up Zelda Musou because it'll be a new release then.

If we're talking about Japan, then I don't think there was any hope to begin with because there is no longer a console audience for Zelda. There wasn't on the Wii, and there certainly won't be on the WiiU, much less with something like this.

If we're talking about worldwide, I think there might be a general demographic problem, because it looks targeted at teens and adults with the designs, and those audiences most likely already own other consoles and don't have a shortage of this sort of title to play on them, even if they do end up getting a WiiU just to play Mario Kart 8.

michaelius · May 22, 2014

mclem said:
Tales of the Abyss?

As far as I know it's downgraded port

extralite · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
If we're talking about Japan, then I don't think there was any hope to begin with because there is no longer a console audience for Zelda. There wasn't on the Wii, and there certainly won't be on the WiiU, much less with something like this.

If we're talking about worldwide, I think there might be a general demographic problem, because it looks targeted at teens and adults with the designs, and those audiences most likely already own other consoles and don't have a shortage of this sort of title to play on them, even if they do end up getting a WiiU just to play Mario Kart 8.

While I think we should remain conservative on sales expections I still have some comments to reply to your points. In Japan most sales will come from the Musou fandom I think, which isn't exactly on Wii U but MK8 might help.

In the West consumers will still want to buy more games for their newly acquired console and Zelda has some pull.

michaelius said:
As far as I know it's downgraded port

Shorter load times and okay 3D, from what I hear. So there are some improvements.

mclem said:
What are you basing that on?

I guess less than perfect frame rate?

Who expects a superior version on a handheld, anyway? Even Sony's attempts at graphically impressive portables can't match their previous gen consoles.

extralite · May 22, 2014

Sorry, double post.

mclem · May 22, 2014

michaelius said:
As far as I know it's downgraded port

What are you basing that on?

Smiles and Cries · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
If we're talking about Japan, then I don't think there was any hope to begin with because there is no longer a console audience for Zelda. There wasn't on the Wii, and there certainly won't be on the WiiU, much less with something like this.

If we're talking about worldwide, I think there might be a general demographic problem, because it looks targeted at teens and adults with the designs, and those audiences most likely already own other consoles and don't have a shortage of this sort of title to play on them, even if they do end up getting a WiiU just to play Mario Kart 8.

dude, why must you be so REAL!

crushing my dreams one realist word at a time.

how much do you expect this game to sell duckroll? are you planning to play this game?

Darius · May 22, 2014

Really sad that it has been ignored in this discussion, the GoW collection really tanked.

23./00. [PSV] God of War Collection <ACT> (Sony Computer Entertainment) {2014.05.15} (¥4.104) - 2.289 / NEW <20-40%>

Moor-Angol said:
yes, with 2 titles bundled with the console and a new release, it's easy to get 3,4 titles in a top30....

FYI : PSV sw sales : 45k, WiiU sw sales : 20k

The point is that despite the low barrier not a single PS4 game charted this week (Famitsu Top30).

1st Course · May 22, 2014

Dengeki Sales: Week 20, 2014 (May 12 - May 18)

01./00. [PS3] The Idolmaster: One for All (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.05.15} - 81.437 / NEW
02./00. [PSV] Genkai Totsuki Moero Chronicle (Compile Heart) {2014.05.15} - 35.453 / NEW
03./01. [3DS] Yokai Watch (LEVEL-5) {2013.07.11} - 32.176 / 920.828 (-46%)
04./02. [3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (Nintendo) {2014.05.01} - 9.694 / 91.562 (-65%)
05./03. [3DS] Mario Party Island Tour (Nintendo) {2014.03.20} - 8.153 / 369.791 (-58%)
06./04. [PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.24} - 7.967 / 208.852 (-51%)
07./07. [3DS] Monster Hunter 4 (Capcom) {2013.09.14} - 5.782 / 3.376.722 (-27%)
08./05. [3DS] Theatrhythm Final Fantasy: Curtain Call (Square Enix) {2014.04.24} - 5.441 / 117.424 (-52%)
09./10. [WIU] Wii Party U (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} - 4.388 / 696.873 (-16%)
10./11. [WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} - 4.288 / 1.111.512 (-17%)
11./09. [3DS] Pazudora Z (Gung Ho Online Entertainment) {2013.12.12} - 3.782 / 1.437.325 (-39%)
12./06. [3DS] Kirby Triple Deluxe star (Nintendo) {2014.01.11} - 3.600 / 567.773 (-61%)
13./08. [3DS] Style Savvy: Trendsetters - Tokimeki Up! (Nintendo) {2014.04.17} - 3.518 / 36.998 (-47%)
14./15. [PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 2.694 / 225.038
15./00. [PS3] Sonic & All-Stars Racing TRANSFORMED (SEGA) {2014.05.15} - 2.600 / NEW
16./31. [WIU] Wii Fit U (Nintendo) {2014.02.01} - 2.429 / 137.070 (-14%)
17./14. [3DS] Animal Crossing Tobidase (Nintendo) {2012.11.08} - 2.413 / 3.644.145 (-41%)
18./17. [3DS] Mario Kart 7 (Nintendo) {2011.12.01} - 2.381 / 2.247.314 (-37%)
19./29. [PS3] Grand Theft Auto V (Rockstar Games) {2013.10.10} - 2.376 / 680.996 (-19%)
20./18. [PS3] Sengoku Musou 4 (Tecmo Koei Games) {2014.03.20} - 2.365 / 227.826 (+26%)
21./00. [PSV] God of War Collection (SCE) {2014.05.15} - 2.283 / NEW
22./13. [WIU] Super Mario 3D World (Nintendo) {2013.11.21} - 2.187 / 523.003 (-47%)
23./16. [3DS] Pokemon X (Pokemon) {2013.10.12} - 2.082 / 2.177.544 (-48%)
24./19. [PSP] Pro Baseball Spirits 2014 (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 1.961 / 67.901 (-46%)
25./25. [3DS] Attack on Titan: The Last Wings of Mankind (Spike CHUNSOFT) {2013.12.05} - 1.947 / 282.896 (-41%)
26./20. [3DS] Dragon Quest Monsters 2: Iru to Ruka no Fushigi na Fushigi na Kagi (Square Enix) {2014.02.06} - 1.906 / 770.740 (-45%)
27./23. [PS3] Pro Baseball Spirits 2014 (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 1.841 / 112.149 (+0.4%)
28./26. [3DS] Harvest Moon: Linking the New World (Marvelous AQL) {2014.02.27} - 1.835 / 217.133 (-44%)
29./00. [WIU] Sonic & All-Stars Racing TRANSFORMED (SEGA) {2014.05.15} - 1.818 / NEW
30./21. [WIU] JUST DANCE (R) Wii U (Nintendo) {2014.04.03} - 1.769 / 42.713 (-48%)
31./28. [3DS] Hero bank (SEGA) {2014.03.20} - 1.753 / 46.444 (-44%)
32./12. [3DS] Fossil Fighters: Infinite Gear (Nintendo) {2014.02.27} - 1.719 / 165.475 (-65%)
33./22. [3DS] Pokemon Y (Pokemon) {2013.10.12} - 1.688 / 1.965.736 (-50%)
34./52. [PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (SCE) {2013.12.05} - 1.641 / 363.516
35./24. [WIU] NES Remix 1 +2 (Nintendo) {2014.04.24} - 1.600 / 25.146 (-52%)
36./27. [PS3] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Jigoku-Hen (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 1.500 / 196.048 (-53%)
37./32. [PS3] J Stars Victory Versus (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.03.19} - 1.435 / 177.448 (-48%)
38./45. [PS4] Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} - 1.382 / 77.534 (-25%)
39./46. [3DS] Aikatsu! Both of My Princess (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2013.11.21} - 1.253 / 223.161 (-32%)
40./36. [PSV] 3rd Super Robot Wars Z: Jigoku-Hen (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 1.239 / 163.057 (-48%)
41./41. [PS4] Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn (Square Enix) {2014.04.14} - 1.236 / 39.107 (-37%)
42./37. [PSV] J Stars Victory Versus (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.03.19} - 1.228 / 147.793 (-45%)
43./33. [3DS] Tomodachi Collection new life (Nintendo) {2013.04.18} - 1.207 / 1.677.631 (-54%)
44./49. [PSV] Soul Sacrifice Delta (SCE) {2014.03.06} - 1.156 / 92.521 (-35%)
45./57. [PSV] Hatsune Miku-Project DIVA-F 2nd (SEGA) {2014.03.27} - 1.156 / 129.308
46./39. [3DS] Phoenix Wright: Ace Attorney 1-2-3 - Naruhodo Selection (Capcom) {2014.04.17} - 1.153 / 36.171 (-48%)
47./30. [3DS] Crayon Shin-Chan: Arashi o Yobu Kasukabe Eiga Stars! (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.10} - 1.135 / 28.247 (-60%)
48./40. [3DS] New Super Mario Bros. 2 (Nintendo) {2012.07.28} - 1.120 / 2.175.593 (-47%)
49./59. [PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 1.119 / 126.999
50./62. [PSV] Teraria (Spike CHUNSOFT) {2014.02.06} - 1.117 / 47.175

TOP 50

3DS 22
PS3 9
PSV 8
WIU 7
PS4 3
PSP 1

TOP3/PLATFORM

[3DS] Yokai Watch (LEVEL-5) {2013.07.11} - 32.176 / 920.828 (-46%)
[3DS] Mario Golf World Tour (Nintendo) {2014.05.01} - 9.694 / 91.562 (-65%)
[3DS] Mario Party Island Tour (Nintendo) {2014.03.20} - 8.153 / 369.791 (-58%)

[PSV] Genkai Totsuki Moero Chronicle (Compile Heart) {2014.05.15} - 35.453 / NEW
[PSV] Sword Art Online: Hollow Fragment (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.04.24} - 7.967 / 208.852 (-51%)
[PSV] God of War Collection (SCE) {2014.05.15} - 2.283 / NEW

[PS3] The Idolmaster: One for All (NAMCO BANDAI Games) {2014.05.15} - 81.437 / NEW
[PS3] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 2.694 / 225.038
[PS3] Sonic & All-Stars Racing TRANSFORMED (SEGA) {2014.05.15} - 2.600 / NEW

[PS4] Battlefield 4 (Electronic Arts) {2014.02.22} - 1.382 / 77.534 (-25%)
[PS4] Final Fantasy XIV Online: A Realm Reborn (Square Enix) {2014.04.14} - 1.236 / 39.107 (-37%)
[PS4] Metal Gear Solid V Ground Zero (KONAMI) {2014.03.20} - 1.119 / 126.999 (-72%)

[WIU] Wii Party U (Nintendo) {2013.10.31} - 4.388 / 696.873 (-16%)
[WIU] New Super Mario Bros. U (Nintendo) {2012.12.08} - 4.288 / 1.111.512 (-17%)
[WIU] Wii Fit U (Nintendo) {2014.02.01} - 2.429 / 137.070 (-14%)

[360] TitanFall (Electronic Arts) {2014.04.10} - 136 / 11.856
[360] Final Fantasy XIII-2 (Square Enix) {2011.12.15} - 133 / 24.637
[360] Dark Souls 2 (From Software) {2014.04.13} - 117 / 8.013

ALL SOFTWARE

Code:

------------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week (%) |  FY 2014  | FY (%)  |
------------------------------------------------------
| PS3   | 132.224   | 34.80%   | 835.716   | 23.10%  |
| 3DS   | 126.450   | 33.20%   | 1.469.539 | 40.70%  |
| Vita  | 73.237    | 19.30%   | 751.438   | 20.80%  |
| Wii U | 24.602    | 6.50%    | 229.417   | 6.40%   |
| PSP   | 13.798    | 3.60%    | 163.028   | 4.50%   |
| PS4   | 8.186     | 2.20%    | 130.642   | 3.60%   |
| X360  | 1.890     | 0.50%    | 32.912    | 0.90%   |
------------------------------------------------------
| Total | 380.387   | 100.00%  | 3.612.692 | 100.00% |
------------------------------------------------------

HARDWARE

Code:

----------------------------------------------------
| Model | This Week | Week (%) | FY 2014 | FY (%)  |
----------------------------------------------------
| 3DS   | 25.496    | 43.40%   | 209.053 | 40.20%  |
| Vita  | 12.269    | 20.90%   | 125.506 | 24.20%  |
| PS4   | 7.078     | 12.00%   | 77.857  | 15.00%  |
| Wii U | 6.295     | 10.70%   | 41.612  | 8.00%   |
| PS3   | 6.105     | 10.40%   | 50.435  | 9.70%   |
| PSP   | 1.370     | 2.30%    | 13.665  | 2.60%   |
| X360  | 127       | 0.20%    | 1.493   | 0.30%   |
----------------------------------------------------
| Total | 58.740    | 100.00%  | 519.621 | 100.00% |
----------------------------------------------------

Dengeki Sales: Week 19, 2014 (May 05 - May 11)

duckroll · May 22, 2014

extralite said:
While I think we should remain conservative on sales expections I still have some comments to reply to your points. In Japan most sales will come from the Musou fandom I think, which isn't exactly on Wii U but MK8 might help.

In the West consumers will still want to buy more games for their newly acquired console and Zelda has some pull.

Well if you look at the original point I made about this, you'll see that I'm saying that what limits the sales of a "Zelda Musou" game the most, is the poor performance of the WiiU in general. So that remains true. Mario Kart 8 could bring the platform from "totally dead, no one wants this shit" to "pretty dead but showing some pulse" sure, but it doesn't change the main point.

In Japan Musou games performed poorly on the Wii compared to the PS3, even when they were exclusives. I'm not saying it'll sell 0 copies obviously, but I don't see how the point that the WiiU being the single biggest limiting factor on this can be disputed.

zeromcd73 · May 22, 2014

With Infamous PS4 should be able to sell more software than PSP next week. Baby steps!

Smiles and Cries · May 22, 2014

when will we add Dengenki to the OPs? I like having 3 sources

extralite · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
Well if you look at the original point I made about this, you'll see that I'm saying that what limits the sales of a "Zelda Musou" game the most, is the poor performance of the WiiU in general. So that remains true. Mario Kart 8 could bring the platform from "totally dead, no one wants this shit" to "pretty dead but showing some pulse" sure, but it doesn't change the main point.

In Japan Musou games performed poorly on the Wii compared to the PS3, even when they were exclusives. I'm not saying it'll sell 0 copies obviously, but I don't see how the point that the WiiU being the single biggest limiting factor on this can be disputed.

I'm not disputing it, I'm relativating it. Were both using vague descriptors without saying numbers, I'm just lightening the negativity your opinion expresses. And you didn't mention the effect MK8 will have so it was worth pointing out.

Smiles and Cries · May 22, 2014

zeromcd73 said:
With Infamous PS4 should be able to sell more software than PSP next week. Baby steps!

saved from selling below Wii U is always a good step, PS4 can't afford baby steps

1st Course · May 22, 2014

34./52. [PS3] Gran Turismo 6 (SCE) {2013.12.05} - 1.641 / 363.516

long time no see

michaelius · May 22, 2014

mclem said:
What are you basing that on?

My memory but seems I was wrong as it wasn't pushing ps2 too hard.

duckroll · May 22, 2014

extralite said:
I'm not disputing it, I'm relativating it. Were both using vague descriptors without saying numbers, I'm just lightening the negativity your opinion expresses. And you didn't mention the effect MK8 will have so it was worth pointing out.

I was replying to a suggestion that Zelda Musou might be at a disadvantage because Zelda fans are more picky or have certain standards with regards to genre changes. I pointed out that it's probably not true, because like any popular franchise expansion, it depends on how and where you sell it. As such, it being on the WiiU is the main reason why it will do so poorly. Considering how that fact is still true even taking into account Mario Kart 8, I see no reason to mention that.

extralite · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
I was replying to a suggestion that Zelda Musou might be at a disadvantage because Zelda fans are more picky or have certain standards with regards to genre changes. I pointed out that it's probably not true, because like any popular franchise expansion, it depends on how and where you sell it. As such, it being on the WiiU is the main reason why it will do so poorly. Considering how that fact is still true even taking into account Mario Kart 8, I see no reason to mention that.

Yes, by making your argument you made several points of your own. I can comment on a single one of them (indicated by quoting only that part) and add info, that contributes to the discussion.

I don't need to attack or even defeat your main point. You raised one point, one I agree with even, but it was worth pointing out that the whole release strategy involving MK8 and ZM is intended to combat the point you raised, of the Wii U's userbase limiting ZM's prospects more than anything. It also has some base to be successful, as I explained.

Two games selling will have a better effect than only one, regardless how many customers the huge title can bring to the platform.

mclem · May 22, 2014

michaelius said:
My memory but seems I was wrong as it wasn't pushing ps2 too hard.

...yet had fairly significant slowdown in the world map.

Smiles and Cries · May 22, 2014

MK8 might bump 3DWorld sales I hope but I doubt it will have as much an effect as some expect

wish they would talk of MK8 DLC already

duckroll · May 22, 2014

extralite said:
Yes, by making your argument you made several points of your own. I can comment on a single one of them (indicated by quoting only that part) and add info, that contributes to the discussion.

I don't need to attack or even defeat your main point. You raised one point, one I agree with even, but it was worth pointing out that the whole release strategy involving MK8 and ZM is intended to combat the point you raised, of the Wii U's userbase limiting its prospectives more than anything. It also has some base to be successful, as I explained.

Two games selling will have a better effect than only one, regardless how many customers the huge title can bring to the platform.

Yeah, Zelda Musou will sell better when it comes out than if it came out today. I totally agree. I guess the question is by how much though. I think the advantage will be more pronounced outside of Japan than in Japan. Hopefully we'll get NPD numbers for it eventually. In Japan I feel fairly confident that it's going to crater hard.

extralite · May 22, 2014

Smiles and Cries said:
MK8 might bump 3DWorld sales I hope but I doubt it will have as much an effect as some expect

wish they would talk of MK8 DLC already

Well even if they're little steps, they do add up if there's enough of them.

duckroll said:
Yeah, Zelda Musou will sell better when it comes out than if it came out today. I totally agree. I guess the question is by how much though. I think the advantage will be more pronounced outside of Japan than in Japan. Hopefully we'll get NPD numbers for it eventually. In Japan I feel fairly confident that it's going to crater hard.

You're probably right. I would still word it differently myself. And any Musou fan buying a Wii U will hurt Sony, so even if they're not many, it can add up.

shinra-bansho · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
The question is really whether a Zelda Musou game is any good. I don't think it will be, and I don't really like Musou games personally, so I'm not interested in it at all.

Hmm, not sure if I conveyed it properly, but this was essentially the mentality I was thinking of in terms of fanbase behavior with regard to both the genre and potential quality. Although I agree, the platform is probably more the problem.

mclem said:
Isn't this a roundabout argument? They're not selling "on hype" because they're selling, and therefore someone must be making a sensible purchasing decision to make them sell?

I think the assumption that someone is making a sensible purchasing decision is the one that's risky, because the very nature of making a purchase 'on hype' would imply that you're *not* making a sensible purchasing decision.

An interesting metric that might shed some light on it would be to investigate whether current PS4/WiiU owners have buyer's remorse over their purchase.

The point was they aren't selling on hype alone, they're selling on software. It's not the software that people on here necessarily like. And for some people on here they may not understand why someone would want a new platform just to play the same games they could play on platforms they already own. Thus they want to ignore the value it adds.

It may not seem 'sensible' to some people to purchase a system for that purpose now, with more of a long term outlook on prospective further value down the line. There's nothing particularly irrational about buying an upgrade for better performance, and low risk of obsolescence for a good 5 years or so.

Darius · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
If we're talking about Japan, then I don't think there was any hope to begin with because there is no longer a console audience for Zelda.

That´s really an arbitrary definition of no console audience. The last two console Zelda games sold 600k and 300k units. If this means no audience especially considering we are specifically talking about Japan,where million sellers are quite seldom and mainly comprised of just a few huge franchises, then there is pretty much no audience for pretty much the majority of popular franchises in Japan, be it Yakuza, last gens Dynasty Warriors, the latest Gran Tourismo and so on.

Smiles and Cries · May 22, 2014

I would not have guessed less than 2k first week Sonic Racing sales on WiiU ouch man

duckroll · May 22, 2014

shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, not sure if I conveyed it properly, but this was essentially the mentality I was thinking of in terms of fanbase behavior with regard to both the genre and potential quality. Although I agree, the platform is probably more the problem.

Well I was speaking for myself, and I try to be careful not to project personal taste on an overview of a larger audience. I'm fully aware that I'm not representative of how popular the Musou franchise is. Do I think that a Zelda Musou title could be very successful in Japan if it were on a Nintendo home console which was popular and had a strong ecosystem? Absolutely. That was the point I was trying to make.

extralite · May 22, 2014

shinra-bansho said:
Hmm, not sure if I conveyed it properly, but this was essentially the mentality I was thinking of in terms of fanbase behavior with regard to both the genre and potential quality. Although I agree, the platform is probably more the problem.

Even with Nintendo only supervising, any game that has Nintendo involvement usually turns out much better than without it. Gameplay wise TLS was so much better than LO, even though that was great already. Fatal Frame IV on Wii was also a fantastic game.

1st Course · May 22, 2014

Sell through (Dengeki)

[PS3] The Idolmaster: One for All - 90%+ (say there're shortages)
[PSV] Genkai Totsuki Moero Chronicle - 80%

heidern · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
I definitely see what you're saying, but I don't think I agree with it. Here's why. Yes, this is not a "cross-media" license, but it's still pretty much just a take-one-franchise-and-make-it-in-another-genre game. It's not really that unique. Nintendo themselves have done this before. Super Mario RPG is probably the most famous example. But there's also Mario Golf, Mario Tennis, Metroid Prime, and even Super Smash Brothers.

Don't forget Soul Calibur 2 already had some success with Link in it.

If Wii U was a successful console Zelda Musou would probably sell quite well. As it is, it probably will have modest sales. Judging by Donkey Kong I'd say it has a challenge to even get past 100K, although a good portion of that possibly numbering tens of thousands could be new purchasers of the console. Considering Wii U has a LTD of only 1.7M that would be pretty good.

michaelius · May 22, 2014

Smiles and Cries said:
I would not have guessed less than 2k first week Sonic Racing sales on WiiU ouch man

Now I want to know if it outsold Yakuza 1&2 HD or not

Votron · May 22, 2014

orioto said:
So yeah, we knew all that.

_Japan doesn't like overpriced heavy tech new consoles full of fps.
_3DS is at the end of its life
_Vita could (i think) be the new thing to refresh the market but it's just not supported enough..

Basically i think what Japan needs is something to refresh the portable market to be alive again. That should be from Nintendo (or sony.. with a PS3 compatible gamepad like tablet ?)

1. that's a general consensus
2. lol what?!
3. ok based on the second comment, you are definitely a vita lover..

Nibel · May 22, 2014

Smiles and Cries said:
goes back to playing The Wonderful 101. <== would have sold 2 million if Impa was playable

yeah this combo is a great idea but yes being on Wii U and the lackluster sales in Japan these days + the west is not a hot musou land are all against TK's 1m LTD

I'm still hyped!

Psycho_Mantis said:
Toooooooooo cute

These are the things going against Zelda Musou

1) gameplay is different and so Zelda fan base may not be interested
2) DW fan base are not on WiiU
3) WiiU has a really low install base

Yeah, basically what Psycho_Mantis wrote. I mean it doesn't mean you shouldn't get hyped for it since sales predictions should not interefere with excitement for a game if you are mentally healthy, but 2 millions sold units.. that's basically Mario Kart/Pokémon/Animal Crossing/MonHun territory and a territory that only the One Piece Musou game came close to if I remember correctly

Is it a neat experiment for the Zelda franchise? For sure, and I'll probably check it out
Is it going to sell gangbusters? Nope

Mpl90 · May 22, 2014

Mmmh...

Samurai Warriors 4 PS3: first 8 days of preorders on Amazon

Regular

http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/history/?date=13111620&cat=videogames&asin=B00GHAPL0Q

Special Box

http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/history/?date=13111623&cat=videogames&asin=B00GHAPL3I

Treasure Box

http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/history/?date=13111614&cat=videogames&asin=B00GHAPL56

Zelda Musou: first hours

Regular

http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/history/?date=14052220&cat=videogames&asin=B00KGTRAX0

Special Box

http://www.rankbank.net/amaran/history/?date=14052220&cat=videogames&asin=B00KGTQRXE

Currently, it's 6th with the Special Box and 12th with the regular.

Protip: Preorders for SW4 started in November, while Zelda's in May, so there's also the different time of the year affecting the charts' placement.

Kouriozan · May 22, 2014

duckroll said:
In Japan I feel fairly confident that it's going to crater hard.

Hey, but that's an easy prediction as every other Wii U games bombed

sörine · May 22, 2014

michaelius said:
As far as I know it's downgraded port

Downgraded in some respects (model geometry, 30 fps battles) but upgraded in others (3D display, 30 fps overworld, load times). Considering it was a cheap launch window port it's relatively impressive.

A better comparison for 3DS upper limits would probably be stuff like Monster Hunter or Resident Evil. Those blow away their PS2 counterparts.

mclem · May 22, 2014

shinra-bansho said:
The point was they aren't selling on hype alone, they're selling on software. It's not the software that people on here necessarily like. And for some people on here they may not understand why someone would want a new platform just to play the same games they could play on platforms they already own. Thus they want to ignore the value it adds.

But I think you're making an assumption there. It may well be a correct assumption, don't get me wrong; I just don't think it's right to present it as a fact.

I own a PS4 and a Wii U right now because I'm a collector and will own all systems in due course. But I suspect I'd have bought a PS4 at launch anyway, without that caveat. And that would have been a mistake, and I'd be regretting it now; I would have bought into the hype. I've not purchased a PS4 game since launch; I've not played anything outside the launch games I bought and the first wave of PS+ titles.

It's hard to be completely certain; I accept I'm trading in a 'what if' scenario somewhat. As an example: it's a reason why I've been a bit vehement about DriveClub, despite that being a game I'm somewhat interested in; it would have been a reason for purchasing the system at launch, and it got heavily delayed. Until DriveClub actually is *launched*, the promise of future DriveClub is indeed part of the hype.

L~A · May 22, 2014

sörine;112972336 said:
Downgraded in some respects (model geometry, 30 fps battles) but upgraded in others (3D display, 30 fps overworld, load times). Considering it was a cheap launch window port it's relatively impressive.

A better comparison for 3DS upper limits would probably be stuff like Monster Hunter or Resident Evil. Those blow away their PS2 counterparts.

Indeed. Capcom's work on the 3DS is nothing short of magic sometimes. RER is incredibly gorgeous, especially in 3D. As for Ace Attorney 5, it has the best 3D effect imo, and gorgeous visuals (though it's a VN/ADV game, so it's easier to get such results).

RalchAC · May 22, 2014

L~A said:
Indeed. Capcom's work on the 3DS is nothing short of magic sometimes. RER is incredibly gorgeous, especially in 3D. As for Ace Attorney 5, it has the best 3D effect imo, and gorgeous visuals (though it's a VN/ADV game, so it's easier to get such results).

I haven't played Revelations. But for what I've read the game is full of closed spaces and it's quite dark. Using small areas / corridors and darkness / fog to hide drawing distance have been used by game developers since forever to push graphics on "weak" systems.

Not that I'm trying to downgrade Capcom's effort or how cool Revelations looks

Mpl90 · May 22, 2014

Treasure Box - 1st
Premium Box - 7th
Regular Edition - 11th

The heck is going on :lol

Tripon · May 22, 2014

Mpl90 said:
Treasure Box - 1st
Premium Box - 7th
Regular Edition - 11th

The heck is going on :lol

The game is selling on hype alone? ;P

sörine · May 22, 2014

RalchAC said:
I haven't played Revelations. But for what I've read the game is full of closed spaces and it's quite dark. Using small areas / corridors and darkness / fog to hide drawing distance have been used by game developers since forever to push graphics on "weak" systems.

Not that I'm trying to downgrade Capcom's effort or how cool Revelations looks

Revelations makes a good comparison to the Outbreak games in that respect. A side game with mostly corridor sections and online multiplayer.

Kouriozan · May 22, 2014

Mpl90 said:
Treasure Box - 1st
Premium Box - 7th
Regular Edition - 11th

The heck is going on :lol

Well, it's available to pre-order since this morning, no?
Let's see if it hold up in the coming days.

Spiegel · May 22, 2014

Mpl90 said:
Treasure Box - 1st
Premium Box - 7th
Regular Edition - 11th

The heck is going on :lol

I think what is going on is that you must be really bored to start again with the first day preorder rankings on amazon.

duckroll · May 22, 2014

Mpl90 gets very excited easily by inconsequential things as long as there's some vague relation to Nintendo involved. Nothing new here.

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