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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th

A

Aquamarine

Member
Note: Physical releases ONLY.

So if it says "PS3 Exclusive," it could mean there's a version for Vita that's digital-exclusive.

Also, none of these releases include a potential PC retail or PC download version. These are console listings only.



PS4 RELEASES​

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1) MURDERED: SOUL SUSPECT
DEVELOPER: AIRTIGHT GAMES
PUBLISHER: SQUARE ENIX
RELEASE: JUNE 3RD, 2014 (33 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: XBO, 360, PS3​

2) EA SPORTS UFC
DEVELOPER: EA CANADA
PUBLISHER: EA SPORTS
RELEASE: JUNE 17TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: XBO​

3) TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE DARK SPARK
DEVELOPER: EDGE OF REALITY, 3DS VERSION: WAYFORWARD TECHNOLOGIES
PUBLISHER: ACTIVISION
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: XBO, 360, PS3, WIU, 3DS​

4) SNIPER ELITE III
DEVELOPER: REBELLION OXFORD
PUBLISHER: 505 GAMES
RELEASE: JULY 1ST, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: XBO, 360, PS3​

5) SNIPER ELITE III: COLLECTOR'S EDITION
DEVELOPER: REBELLION OXFORD
PUBLISHER: 505 GAMES
RELEASE: JULY 1ST, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: XBO​




XBO RELEASES​

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1) MURDERED: SOUL SUSPECT
DEVELOPER: AIRTIGHT GAMES
PUBLISHER: SQUARE ENIX
RELEASE: JUNE 3RD, 2014 (33 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, 360, PS3​

2) EA SPORTS UFC
DEVELOPER: EA CANADA
PUBLISHER: EA SPORTS
RELEASE: JUNE 17TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4​

3) TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE DARK SPARK
DEVELOPER: EDGE OF REALITY, 3DS VERSION: WAYFORWARD TECHNOLOGIES
PUBLISHER: ACTIVISION
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, 360, PS3, WIU, 3DS​

4) SNIPER ELITE III
DEVELOPER: REBELLION OXFORD
PUBLISHER: 505 GAMES
RELEASE: JULY 1ST, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, 360, PS3​

5) SNIPER ELITE III: COLLECTOR'S EDITION
DEVELOPER: REBELLION OXFORD
PUBLISHER: 505 GAMES
RELEASE: JULY 1ST, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4​




360 RELEASES​

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1) MURDERED: SOUL SUSPECT
DEVELOPER: AIRTIGHT GAMES
PUBLISHER: SQUARE ENIX
RELEASE: JUNE 3RD, 2014 (33 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, PS3​

2) ENEMY FRONT
DEVELOPER: CI GAMES
PUBLISHER: BANDAI NAMCO GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3​

3) ENEMY FRONT: SPECIAL EDITION
DEVELOPER: CI GAMES
PUBLISHER: BANDAI NAMCO GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3​

4) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2: THE VIDEO GAME
DEVELOPER: TORUS GAMES
PUBLISHER: LITTLE ORBIT
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3, WIU, WII, 3DS​

5) GRID AUTOSPORT
DEVELOPER: CODEMASTERS
PUBLISHER: CODEMASTERS
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3​

6) GRID AUTOSPORT: LIMITED BLACK EDITION
DEVELOPER: CODEMASTERS
PUBLISHER: CODEMASTERS
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3​

7) TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE DARK SPARK
DEVELOPER: EDGE OF REALITY, 3DS VERSION: WAYFORWARD TECHNOLOGIES
PUBLISHER: ACTIVISION
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, PS3, WIU, 3DS​

8) FAR CRY COMPILATION
DEVELOPER: CRYTEK, UBISOFT MONTREAL
PUBLISHER: UBISOFT
RELEASE: JULY 1ST, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3​

9) SNIPER ELITE III
DEVELOPER: REBELLION OXFORD
PUBLISHER: 505 GAMES
RELEASE: JULY 1ST, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, PS3​




PS3 RELEASES​

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1) MURDERED: SOUL SUSPECT
DEVELOPER: AIRTIGHT GAMES
PUBLISHER: SQUARE ENIX
RELEASE: JUNE 3RD, 2014 (33 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, 360​

2) ENEMY FRONT
DEVELOPER: CI GAMES
PUBLISHER: BANDAI NAMCO GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360​

3) ENEMY FRONT: SPECIAL EDITION
DEVELOPER: CI GAMES
PUBLISHER: BANDAI NAMCO GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360​

4) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2: THE VIDEO GAME
DEVELOPER: TORUS GAMES
PUBLISHER: LITTLE ORBIT
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360, WIU, WII, 3DS​

5) TERRARIA (LIMITED PHYSICAL RELEASE)
DEVELOPER: RE-LOGIC, ENGINE SOFTWARE
PUBLISHER: 505 GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360​

6) XBLAZE CODE: EMBRYO
DEVELOPER: ARC SYSTEM WORKS
PUBLISHER: AKSYS GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PSV​

7) GRID AUTOSPORT
DEVELOPER: CODEMASTERS
PUBLISHER: CODEMASTERS
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360​

8) GRID AUTOSPORT: LIMITED BLACK EDITION
DEVELOPER: CODEMASTERS
PUBLISHER: CODEMASTERS
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360​

9) ATELIER RORONA PLUS: THE ALCHEMIST OF ARLAND
DEVELOPER: GUST
PUBLISHER: KOEI TECMO
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
PS3 EXCLUSIVE
​

10) TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE DARK SPARK
DEVELOPER: EDGE OF REALITY, 3DS VERSION: WAYFORWARD TECHNOLOGIES
PUBLISHER: ACTIVISION
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, 360, WIU, 3DS​

11) SNIPER ELITE III
DEVELOPER: REBELLION OXFORD
PUBLISHER: 505 GAMES
RELEASE: JULY 1ST, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, 360​




WIU RELEASES​

WJ0EAg2.jpg
xoeyjT7.jpg


1) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2: THE VIDEO GAME
DEVELOPER: TORUS GAMES
PUBLISHER: LITTLE ORBIT
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360, PS3, WII, 3DS​

2) TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE DARK SPARK
DEVELOPER: EDGE OF REALITY, 3DS VERSION: WAYFORWARD TECHNOLOGIES
PUBLISHER: ACTIVISION
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, 3DS​




3DS RELEASES​

aBxWHW7.jpg
WxhWqpz.jpg
PJEirnS.jpg
CnCqbza.jpg


1) TOMODACHI LIFE
DEVELOPER: NINTENDO SPD
PUBLISHER: NINTENDO
RELEASE: JUNE 6TH, 2014 (30 DAYS OF TRACKING)
3DS EXCLUSIVE​

2) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2: THE VIDEO GAME
DEVELOPER: TORUS GAMES
PUBLISHER: LITTLE ORBIT
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360, PS3, WIU, WII​

3) FARMING SIMULATOR '14
DEVELOPER: GIANTS SOFTWARE
PUBLISHER: FOCUS HOME INTERACTIVE
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PSV​

4) TRANSFORMERS: RISE OF THE DARK SPARK
DEVELOPER: EDGE OF REALITY, 3DS VERSION: WAYFORWARD TECHNOLOGIES
PUBLISHER: ACTIVISION
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS4, XBO, 360, PS3, WIU​




PSV RELEASES​

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1) HYPERDIMENSION NEPTUNIA: PRODUCING PERFECTION
DEVELOPER: COMPILE HEART, IDEA FACTORY, TAMSOFT
PUBLISHER: NIS AMERICA
RELEASE: JUNE 3RD, 2014 (33 DAYS OF TRACKING)
PSV EXCLUSIVE​

2) XBLAZE CODE: EMBRYO
DEVELOPER: ARC SYSTEM WORKS
PUBLISHER: AKSYS GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3​

3) FARMING SIMULATOR '14
DEVELOPER: GIANTS SOFTWARE
PUBLISHER: FOCUS HOME INTERACTIVE
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 3DS​

4) BLAZBLUE: CHRONOPHANTASMA
DEVELOPER: ARC SYSTEM WORKS
PUBLISHER: AKSYS GAMES
RELEASE: JUNE 24TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: PS3​




WII RELEASES​

hOGTzdJ.jpg


1) HOW TO TRAIN YOUR DRAGON 2: THE VIDEO GAME
DEVELOPER: TORUS GAMES
PUBLISHER: LITTLE ORBIT
RELEASE: JUNE 10TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)
ALSO ON: 360, PS3, WIU, 3DS​
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Results last month:

PS4: 197k
3DS: 97k
XB1: 77k
WIU: 61k
360: 57k
PS3: 36k


Remember, June is a 5 week month, an entire 7 more days of tracking from May.

If the consoles sold for 5 weeks last month, and 5 weeks of tracking looked identical to 4 weeks, here would be their numbers:

PS4: 246K
3DS: 121K
XB1: 96K
WIU: 76K
360: 71K
PS3: 45K

So anyone who is predicting PS4 under 246K / 5 weeks is actually predicting an average sales-per-week slowdown from last month's 197K / 4 weeks.
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
@Aquamarine

Do you have the first June NPD numbers for PS3/X360?

Also do you think +100K for Wii U is plausible?
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Chobel said:
@Aquamarine

Do you have the first June NPD numbers for PS3/X360?
Click to expand...

360:

June 2006 - 277K
June 2007 - 198K
June 2008 - 220K
June 2009 - 241K
June 2010 - 452K
June 2011 - 507K
June 2012 - 257K
June 2013 - 141K


PS3:

June 2007 - 98K
June 2008 - 406K
June 2009 - 165K
June 2010 - 305K
June 2011 - 279K
June 2012 - 189K
June 2013 - 109K
 
Chobel

Chobel

Member
Aquamarine said:
360:

June 2006 - 277K
June 2007 - 198K
June 2008 - 220K
June 2009 - 241K
June 2010 - 452K
June 2011 - 507K
June 2012 - 257K
June 2013 - 141K


PS3:

June 2007 - 99K
June 2008 - 406K
June 2009 - 165K
June 2010 - 305K
June 2011 - 279K
June 2012 - 189K
June 2013 - 109K
Click to expand...

That's even better. Thanks!
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
[360] 52K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 30K
[PS4] 250K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 180K

Xbox One should definitely be higher due to the new SKU but the new SKU will help the system more this Fall when more games are released. There was no big game that came out for the system this month so I can't see the system beating the PS4 in sales.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Aquamarine said:
Results last month:

PS4: 197k
3DS: 97k
XB1: 77k
Wii U: 61k
360: 57k
PS3: 36k


Remember, June is a 5 week month, an entire 7 more days of tracking from May.

If the consoles sold for 5 weeks last month, and 5 weeks of tracking looked identical to 4 weeks, here would be their numbers:

PS4: 246K
3DS: 121K
XB1: 96K
WIU: 76K
360: 71K
PS3: 45K

So anyone who is predicting PS4 under 246K / 5 weeks is actually predicting an average sales-per-week slowdown from last month's 197K / 4 weeks.
Click to expand...

I think some people just post numbers to make other people go "Dafuq."

I certainly got very confused at the sheer obtuse rationale it would take to realistically believe that those predictions are accurate, anyway (like the guy with the PS4 at 105k)

What are your thoughts, Aqua? Any particular considerations you're working with for factors to make your own predictions? You and Swift are usually the biggest number crunchers.
 
Freeman

Freeman

Banned
Very hard to predict how the X1 will do.

[360] 50K
[3DS] 120K
[PS3] 40K
[PS4] 210K
[WIU] 90K
[XB1] 115K
 
B

beast786

Member
[360] 60K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 42K
[PS4] 150K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 320K

The kinect less sku will change the tide. Now at even price the xbox brad will dominate like last gen in USA . Especially since both require pay to play online
 
Freeman

Freeman

Banned
beast786 said:
[360] 60K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 42K
[PS4] 150K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 320K

The kinect less sku will change the tide. Now at even price the xbox brad will dominate like last gen in USA . Especially since both require pay to play online
Click to expand...

Bold prediction.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Chobel said:
@Aquamarine

Also do you think +100K for Wii U is plausible?
Click to expand...

Abdiel said:
What are your thoughts, Aqua? Any particular considerations you're working with for factors to make your own predictions? You and Swift are usually the biggest number crunchers.
Click to expand...

I'll get to answering this later.



But first I want to know the rationale behind the people who are predicting that PS4 will be <170K this month.

What evidence do we have to demonstrate that PS4 will suffer such a sharp average weekly decline in June?

That is, what evidence is there that PS4 will be more than 70K below last month's adjusted results of 246K / 5 weeks?
 
P

Piggus

Member
People thinking PS4 will sell less than 200k are completely insane. There's been zero evidence of such a drop off in sales and as already posted, June is usually a better month than May across the board.
 
AgentP

AgentP

Thinks mods influence posters politics. Promoted to QAnon Editor.
beast786 said:
[360] 60K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 42K
[PS4] 150K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 320K

The kinect less sku will change the tide. Now at even price the xbox brad will dominate like last gen in USA . Especially since both require pay to play online
Click to expand...

Wow, triple the XB1 sales despite it never peaking past #26 on Amazon? Drop in PS4 sales despite it never dropping out of the top ten? Reads like wishful thinking. Can't wait until NPDs.
 
B

BlackGoku03

Member
Aquamarine said:
I'll get to answering this later.



But first I want to know the rationale behind the people who are predicting that PS4 will be <170K this month.

What evidence do we have to demonstrate that PS4 will suffer such a sharp average weekly decline in June?

That is, what evidence is there that PS4 will be more than 70K below last month's adjusted results of 246K / 5 weeks?
Click to expand...

There is none, really.
 
A

artist

Banned
AgentP said:
Wow, triple the XB1 sales despite it never peaking past #26 on Amazon? Drop in PS4 sales despite it never dropping out of the top ten? Reads like wishful thinking. Can't wait until NPDs.
Click to expand...
beast always comes in with over the top expectations for the bone, look for his previous predictions ;)
 
R

Randolph Freelander

Member
Piggus said:
People thinking PS4 will sell less than 200k are completely insane. There's been zero evidence of such a drop off in sales and as already posted, June is usually a better month than May across the board.
Click to expand...

Well, I'm not less than that (205K), but demand has been softening, and I'm projecting it to continue to do so. In real terms, it's up because of the 5 weeks, but the weekly average is continuing downward and I believe it will through the summer before getting a lift because of the White PS4/Destiny bundle. (Absent that bundle/color, I'm not big on Destiny having any real impact.)

To be completely forthcoming, I'm also softening other systems (3DS, 360, PS3) right along with the PS4. I have Xbox One recovering some of last month's lost sales pending the new SKU, so it's up for June (but still trailing PS4 by a significant margin) and we'll see about July once the June numbers come in. Similarly, I have Wii U tapering from the modest boost it got at the end of May with the Mario Kart release and bundle. My number for June is up, but my mental model has largely followed that of Japan, so I suspect sales at the end of the month are at the same rate as they were before Mario Kart and the bundle, so sales for July should be roughly in line with April, if not slightly down.
 
G

GamerJM

Banned
[360] 75k
[3DS] 105k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 240k
[WIU] 190k
[XB1] 215k

I'm expecting an overall healthy month for NPD. I actually sort of wanted to put higher numbers than this (271k for Xbox One, 245k for Wii U, and 370k for PS4) and go crazy, but I decided not to overdo it with outlandish and unrealistic predictions.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Randolph Freelander said:
Well, I'm not less than that (205K), but demand has been softening, and I'm projecting it to continue to do so. In real terms, it's up because of the 5 weeks, but the weekly average is continuing downward and I believe it will through the summer before getting a lift because of the White PS4/Destiny bundle.

To be completely forthcoming, I'm also softening other systems (3DS, 360, PS3) right along with the PS4. I have Xbox One recovering some of last month's lost sales pending the new SKU, so it's up for June and we'll see about July once the June numbers come in. Similarly, I have Wii U tapering from the modest boost it got at the end of May with the Mario Kart release and bundle. My number for June is up, but my mental model has largely followed that of Japan, so I suspect sales at the end of the month are at the same rate as they were before Mario Kart and the bundle, so sales for July should be roughly in line with April, if not slightly down.
Click to expand...


PS4 Weekly Averages:

November 2013:
1138K / 16 days
= 498K per week

December 2013:
863K / 5 weeks
= 173K per week

January 2014:
271K / 4 weeks
= 68K per week

February 2014:
269K / 4 weeks
= 67K per week

March 2014:
371K / 5 weeks
= 74K per week

April 2014:
200K / 4 weeks
= 50K per week

May 2014:
197K / 4 weeks
= 49K per week



June 2014:

5 weeks at 49K per week = 245K
5 weeks at 39K per week = 195K (similar to an unadjusted May)
5 weeks at 33K per week = 165K (what some people in this thread are predicting)




Yes there was a drop from March, but April and May seem to be pretty similar...PS4 holding steady at 49-50K.

I don't know why this would lead to a sudden drop in PS4 demand. At least, there doesn't seem to be enough precedent with E3 in June boosting sales and retail reports of PS4 demand remaining somewhat constant.
 
James Sawyer Ford

James Sawyer Ford

Member
Forgot how well the 360 sold in June 2010 and 2011. One year was due to the new SKU, but what about 2011?

Blows my mind that sales were that high those years
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Aquamarine said:
PS4 Weekly Averages:

November 2013:
1138K / 16 days
= 498K per week

December 2013:
863K / 5 weeks
= 173K per week

January 2014:
271K / 4 weeks
= 68K per week

February 2014:
269K / 4 weeks
= 67K per week

March 2014:
371K / 5 weeks
= 74K per week

April 2014:
200K / 4 weeks
= 50K per week

May 2014:
197K / 4 weeks
= 49K per week



June 2014:

5 weeks at 49K per week = 245K
5 weeks at 39K per week = 195K (similar to an unadjusted May)
5 weeks at 33K per week = 165K (what some people in this thread are predicting)




Yes there was a drop from March, but April and May seem to be pretty similar...PS4 holding steady at 49-50K.

I don't know why this would lead to a sudden drop in PS4 demand. At least, there doesn't seem to be enough precedent with E3 in June boosting sales and retail reports of PS4 demand remaining somewhat constant.
Click to expand...

Nothing I've seen in our channels has shown any sign of *any* drop off, let alone one to the degree people are predicting in this thread so far. Holding steady, or improving a bit, just nothing drastic in either direction. The momentum is strongly in the PS4's favor... even if it's not crazy high Wii monthly numbers, it's also not faltering, from what I've seen.
 
V

vinnygambini

Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
[360] 67k
[3DS] 113k
[PS3] 42k
[PS4] 204k
[WIU] 122k
[XB1] 117k
 
S

ScribbleD

Member
beast786 said:
[360] 60K
[3DS] 90K
[PS3] 42K
[PS4] 150K
[WIU] 85K
[XB1] 320K

The kinect less sku will change the tide. Now at even price the xbox brad will dominate like last gen in USA . Especially since both require pay to play online
Click to expand...

I laughed really hard when I saw you had Xbone more than doubling PS4's sales for the US this month.
 
T

TetraGenesis

Member
Let's see how good I am at this. *cracks knuckles*

[PS4] 42
[XB1] one
[WIU] E=mc^2
[3DS] Banana
[360] 360
[PS3] &#128029;&#128299;&#10084;&#65039;
 
B

barit

Member
My first prediction for GAF. I´m excited

[360] 78k
[3DS] 83k
[PS3] 50k
[PS4] 187k
[WIU] 68k
[XB1] 178k
 
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