Just like Nintendo was viewed as a fallen company by investors when they announced partly going third party by entering the mobile market?
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Nintendo Q4 FYE 3/15 Results - Beats Market Expectations, FY15 Guidance Announced
- Thread starter vinnygambini
- Start date
Just like Nintendo was viewed as a fallen company by investors when they announced partly going third party by entering the mobile market?
Ok, what part of "if Nintendo hardware ceases to exist then Nintendo fans would migrate to another system that has the Nintendo games" do you not understand? Nintendo fans don't just drop dead once Nintendo leaves the hardware business, they go for another system, that might be the PS4/X1/PC or whatever other system might be available.
It is entirely irrelevant which system has cultivated an audience for family games and it also doesn't fall back to Nintendo to build an audience, cause they already have a freaking audience, the only difference is that it's now not concentrated on one platform and that it grows by the amount of people that like X Nintendo game/s but don't think it's worth getting a Nintendo system for that/those.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Everybody likes videogames. Let's take that as a given.
Everybody likes videogames enough, that if they have a device that plays videogames - whether thats a high end smartphone fresh from a new 24 month contract or the shitty specced old work laptop they took home when it was being thrown out - they're gonna have a look at what games are out there and put some on it.
Not everyone likes videogames enough to go out and buy dedicated hardware thats only real new function is playing games however.
This is a significant portion of the mobile market.
They are not so fussy about playing games that they have the matured knowledge, familiarity and interest in the medium that they see a Gameloft COD clone as being any worse on any criteria that matters to them than an actual full-fledged COD.
They just want to shoot dudes while they wait for the bus.
People who buy a PS4 or an Xbone have entirely different criteria for "quality" than people who are happy with COD rip-off on IOS do.
I think it is fair to say that people who have bought a WiiU also have very different criteria for "quality" than people who bought a PS4 or Xbone do.
For people who have bought a PS4 or an Xbone, I think it is further fair to say that "production budget" is an element that they consider to be Very Important amongst their purchase criteria.
Making one further assumption, I believe it is fair to say people who buy Nintendo hardware do not place as high an emphasis on Production Budget, just as most mobile gamers similarly do not place such an emphasis on Production Budget.
7DollarHagane
Banned
Good news. Console gaming is not dying
If they announced that they would develop for Sony and Microsoft, then that would directly infringe on Wii U sales. The Wii U, PS4 and Xbox one are all controller based systems where gaming is done primarily through buttons. Mobile gaming is typically button free unlike handheld gaming. Thus mobile gaming does not directly infringe on handheld games.
Therefore developing for the playstation and xbox would incentivize them to drop their console hardware division while developing for smartphones does not do the same for handheld gaming.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
It's hugely relevant if your contention that Nintendo going third party means Nintendos userbase just heads on over to buy a PS4 or Xbone instead, surely?
why are people still talking about going 3rd party in a thread that is full of good Nintendo news? Have I missed something?
You don't go 3rd party willingly. It really should be a last resort type situation. 3rd Party Nintendo isn't the same Nintendo but with better power. It is a mario/zelda factory at best.
Sega had years of failure before their current state, yeah...but current Sega is still a good example of what 3rd Party Nintendo would be. If not them then Capcom current output is good example. The w101, splatoon, xenoblades and such of the world does not happen...as Nintendo can relatively eat those losses in a sense because they have Mario and such to fal l back on...that becomes less so otherwise.
I understand why people ask for it as they would rather play those games on their systems of choice...but I do wish they'd stop acting like it is the best outcome for the company as a whole.
You don't go 3rd party willingly. It really should be a last resort type situation. 3rd Party Nintendo isn't the same Nintendo but with better power. It is a mario/zelda factory at best.
Sega had years of failure before their current state, yeah...but current Sega is still a good example of what 3rd Party Nintendo would be. If not them then Capcom current output is good example. The w101, splatoon, xenoblades and such of the world does not happen...as Nintendo can relatively eat those losses in a sense because they have Mario and such to fal l back on...that becomes less so otherwise.
I understand why people ask for it as they would rather play those games on their systems of choice...but I do wish they'd stop acting like it is the best outcome for the company as a whole.
i suppose the part where you lack evidence to back up your claims.
yeah there are tons of dudes/dudettes who ONLY play Nintendo games for various reasons and if they were to drop out of the hardware business, they may not take to kindly to being left out in the cold and having to go buy consoles they had no interest in, .so there would be some diehards who just drop out of gaming completely
No, it is entirely irrelevant unless you think that the Nintendo fanbase is willing to buy a Nintendo system for Nintendo games alone but would not be willing to buy a non Nintendo system that has all the Nintendo games anyway plus more games that they're not forced to play, in which case I'd really question your opinion of the average Nintendo fan.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
So you believe its Option B, that WiiU owners are Nintendo diehards who have no interest in what the PS4 / Xbone offers, but they would jump to buy a console that offers them nothing to play the kind of games that Nintendos detractors accuse them of making - endless rehashes of the exact same game in the same big franchises?
I need to provide evidence for something that should be nothing but entirely logical? How fucking retarded do you think the Nintendo fanbase is?
If the Nintendo system that has all the Nintendo games ceases to exist and all the Nintendo games go to the other systems then you're going to get one of those other systems if you want to play Nintendo, how in the world is that theory even being questioned, what do you think the Nintendo fanbase would do?
Seriously, what the fuck are you talking about?
i can make claims that there isn't a family-friendly userbase on playstation systems since right around 2007 or so, and actually back that point up. i can cite concern over a userbase not transitioning to an environment that's not necessarily cultivated for them by pointing to previous examples like sega's transition for many of their franchises to xbox. i can also show what happens when a userbase size doesn't necessarily equate sales in proportions you might expect from that userbase.
you have a pretty good feeling about a hypothetical situation.
Buy Nintendo games on the smartphones that they already own?
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I'm questioning your implicit assumption that Nintendo going third party would have no affect on the safety net that being a platform owner provides, and that they would literally make the same games as they do now, but sell millions more, rather than the - vastly - more likely probability that they would have to be like every other publisher and reduce their portfolio to a few key titles and turn them into annualised franchises.
GhostTrick
Banned
Arent we getting a QA today ? According to Nintendo IR schedule:
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/schedule/index.html
http://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/en/schedule/index.html
R
Rösti
Unconfirmed Member
There is almost always a Q&A following the presentation, so there should hopefully be a transcript posted a day or so after. The presentation slides should be up quite soon after the event has commenced though.
Jesus fucking christ, what in the world is wrong with you? Simply answer this fucking question: If Nintendo's hardware ceased to exist and Nintendos software starts releasing on all other systems, what do you think the Nintendo fanbase is going to do?
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Investors conference should start at 9pm EST; materials should be up an hour after the meeting or so with English slides up later, and Q&A a few days after.
About that time frame right Rosti?
Again: Nintendo's fanbase doesn't just disappear with their hardware, they will go where the software goes and where that software goes there will be millions more people that might want to try out a couple Nintendo franchises once in a while.
And even that would be money for Nintendo, but you know that those people will also want the full Nintendo game experience again, what will they do then?
I suppose if Nintendo stopped making hardware, and someone had a gun to Iwata's head and he absolutely had to make games on the PS4 or else, then they might be able to carve out some sort of niche on that platform.
Or they could do the not-dumb thing and release their family friendly games on a platform that has a healthy demographic that plays family friendly games.
some might buy it. others would probably head to a friendlier platform for the kinds of games they enjoyed on nintendo platforms, like mobile or, perhaps, steam.
what i am trying to express is that you think it is a slam dunk and an easy choice. what i am trying to express is that if it was an easy choice, it would have been done a while ago.
GhostTrick
Banned
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
And again; this is based on a huge assumption that that existing fanbase either don't care about quality or breadth of library as long as it has Nintendo slapped on it, or that Nintendo can seamlessly transition to being a third party publisher unlike any other and not have to make any sacrifice whatsoever to their output.
Further it assumes that an existing audience that couldn't give a fuck about Rayman, Sonic, Sonic Racing or any other similar titles suddenly embrace Nintendos output.
You can't get mad at people for asking you to clarify these bankrupt corporation sized holes in the "go third party everyone wins" 'solution' you present.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
10 am
GhostTrick
Banned
Oh so in 2 hours then ?
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
And those other platforms wouldn't make money for them? I never even remotely said that all Nintendo fans would go to the PS4, that is something that you just randomly started assuming, what I'm saying is that existing Wii U owners would go where the software is, that could be any platform. And to say that the people that bought a Wii U to play Nintendo home console games would now be happy with playing their stripped down mobile versions seems questionable at best.
Would the millions make up for the cost of being third party though? Due to the revenue splits.
I mean, we see that Smash has done ~10 million.
How much more would it really do if it was only released for X1 and PS4 (if it would do more at all..). Would it do ~15? 20? I sincerely doubt it.
Just because there would be a larger install base doesn't mean all these franchises would start pushing CoD numbers. And even if there was an increase in sales, would the revenue even be higher after all the fees are taken into account?
Personally, I think the big franchises would remain pretty much stagnent or even decrease. Mario, MK, Kirby, AC, Pokemon, DK, Smash, etc.
Stuff like Metroid might see an increase, but the money lost from the key franchises and everthing else would render it pointless.
A lot of wii u owners and Nintendo fans would probably be satisfied with the more family friendly platforms when you consider the target audience.
Every time they announce LTD sales for their games I always look for MK8 just to see how far it has until it beats Super Circuit.
We almost there.
Do you have any sales numbers for any of those franchises?
Oh and I'm completely convinced that the crushing majority of the core Nintendo fanbase is definitely going to want to play the next iteration of at least one of those franchises: 3D Mario, Mario Kart, Smash, Zelda, Pokemon. So even IF some of Nintendos smaller franchises were to bite the dust during a transition like that, most of the Nintendo fans would still get a system to play those games on.
Also you're really underestimating the tool of using sales to get more people to buy the games on the other systems, especially on the PC sales can wield massive results.
probably not, or they would have done it a while ago.
1. sonic mega collection (ps2) - 1.6m
2. sonic adventure 2 battle (gc)
3. sonic heroes (ps2)
4. sonic mega collection (gc)
5. sonic and the secret rings (wii)
6. sonic adventure (dc) - 1.05m
7. sonic heroes (gc) - 840k
8. sonic adventure dx (gc)
9. sonic unleashed (wii)
10. sonic unleashed (ps2)
11. sonic colors (wii)
12. shadow the hedgehog (gc) - 500k
13. sonic and the black knight (wii) - 400k
14. sonic adventure 2 (dc)
15. sonic the hedgehog 2006 (360)
16. sonic the hedgehog 2006 (ps3)
17. sonic mega collection (xbox) - 360k
18. sonic unleashed (360) - 280k
19. sonic heroes (xbox)
20. shadow the hedgehog (ps2)
21. sonic unleashed (ps3)
22. sonic generations (360) - 200k
23. sonic generations (ps3) - 150k
24. sonic gems collection (gc)
25. shadow the hedgehog (xbox) - 100k
1. sonic advance (gba) - 1.25m
2. sonic rush (ds) - 1.2m
3. sonic advance 2 (gba) - 740k
4. sonic advance 3 (gba) - 700k
5. sonic rivals (psp)
6. sonic classic collection (ds)
7. sonic colors (ds) - 600k
8. sonic generations (3ds) - 400k
9. sonic rush adventure (ds) - 350k
10. sonic rivals 2 (psp) - 200k
Rayman Legends:
wii u > 360 + ps3 > vita
sonic transformed and all stars racing:
wii u > 360 + ps3
Neff
Member
Kotaku says it's less (12%) but Eurogamer says it's the same (20%). Either way, it's going to seriously add up.
http://kotaku.com/5479698/what-your-60-really-buys
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2011-01-10-where-does-my-money-go-article
They don't spend anywhere near as much on marketing as regular publishers do, either.
By potentially going 3rd party, not only would they lose the licensing cut of their own titles, and the profit from their hardware (if any), they'd lose that same cut from 3rd party software (it does exist, particularly on 3DS), and the multiplication in software sales from customers looking to fill a console library to justify their purchase. To imply that losing this wouldn't dramatically harm their business as it stands is ignorant beyond reasoning.
This subject has been done to death here, so you'll forgive me if you find my summary bluntly concise: If you want to play Nintendo games, buy a Nintendo system.
Chezzymann
Member
If Mario Kart 8 gets another round of DLC, I think it has a shot at hitting 6 million.
Well, Adachi freaked out and was sent to the shadow world, but I'd like to at least state that I agree with him pretty much completely.
It's a damn shame that it's not going to happen, because I'd love to see the sales outcome for curiosity's sake. For years I was saying 'Nintendo will probably have to go mobile at some stage, it makes too much sense' and the vitriol from a majority of fans that thought such an opinion must be an outrageous, clearly disingenuous trolling attempt was amazing. I remember in particular how angry Joe would get on here any time such a ridiculous impossibility was suggested. It became a meme that anyone suggesting it (like Pachter) must be an uneducated moron. Lo and behold it came to pass. Sometimes the majority on here are wrong about things. But all we have to go on is speculation, so I suppose we'll almost certainly never know.
I will add that the idea that the sales of a game like Sonic All-Stars or Rayman Legends are properly relevant to potential sales of Mario Kart 8 or NSMB is inane to me. The point is that one of those two sets of games are a cultural institution that most casuals could name check, and the others are just some other family-friendly games, nothing more. One of those sets has a history of selling millions and millions to an established and extremely loyal fanbase and as well as to millions of casual gamers, as well as actually selling consoles to go along with them and the other set doesn't. The idea that Nintendo's audience wouldn't follow them to other home consoles if they had to is bizarre to me, it really is.
It's a damn shame that it's not going to happen, because I'd love to see the sales outcome for curiosity's sake. For years I was saying 'Nintendo will probably have to go mobile at some stage, it makes too much sense' and the vitriol from a majority of fans that thought such an opinion must be an outrageous, clearly disingenuous trolling attempt was amazing. I remember in particular how angry Joe would get on here any time such a ridiculous impossibility was suggested. It became a meme that anyone suggesting it (like Pachter) must be an uneducated moron. Lo and behold it came to pass. Sometimes the majority on here are wrong about things. But all we have to go on is speculation, so I suppose we'll almost certainly never know.
I will add that the idea that the sales of a game like Sonic All-Stars or Rayman Legends are properly relevant to potential sales of Mario Kart 8 or NSMB is inane to me. The point is that one of those two sets of games are a cultural institution that most casuals could name check, and the others are just some other family-friendly games, nothing more. One of those sets has a history of selling millions and millions to an established and extremely loyal fanbase and as well as to millions of casual gamers, as well as actually selling consoles to go along with them and the other set doesn't. The idea that Nintendo's audience wouldn't follow them to other home consoles if they had to is bizarre to me, it really is.
Licensing to platform holders can vary depending on the publisher. As can brick and mortar percentages.
For instance, Rockstar can and does strong arm platform holders and stores to take a smaller cut.
Big companies and big games make more profit.
Additionally, "moneyhatting" is often just given as discounts in platform licensing fees, and as such, change in absolute value depending on sales.
Also, the breakdown in "marketing" costs as a percentage of units sold is totally funky, as that varies greatly title to title. It varies even more because it's spent before the sales numbers come in; while sales targets can be fairly close, and pre-order number help a lot, history is littered with games that overspent on marketing that didn't realize as sales and underground hits that blew up by word of mouth.
Hero of Legend
Member
Lost World also from the NPD leaks overtime showed it getting lots of traction, certainly way more than its debut indicated.
*pulls out saved numbers from the threads*
Sonic Lost World Wii U? (assumed Wii U due to context, might have to look back at the thread to double check) over 100k as of April 2014 NPD
Sonic Lost World Wii U: 92k (as of Feb 2014 NPD)
Sonic Lost World 3DS: 97k (as of Dec 2013 NPD)
Sonic Lost World Wii U and 3DS together debuted at less than 30k combined (Oct 2013 NPD)
Apparently some slides from the meeting?:
http://imgur.com/a/PDm5f
http://imgur.com/a/PDm5f
sony and microsoft can't even get their own userbases to buy their own family-friendly games. i really doubt that nintendo can succeed on their platforms to the degree people are expecting.
Hero of Legend
Member
Joeshabadoo
Member
still hoping the reg New 3DS finds its way here at some point in 2016. I want one, but I'm resigned to the market forces and the realities therein