• Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.

NPD Sales Results for January 2016

I'm expecting the PS4 version to bomb in the US but sell pretty well in Europe. The majority of the fanbase hasn't picked up the game and won't be able to until this holiday. It's basically a new game release. If it's a "GOTY" edition with all the DLC and base game for less than $60, I think it'll do well.
I expect it to be sub $30 within a month.
 
Oh, I have P4G on Vita too. I'm actually sorta confused about Persona and SMT. Are they different games, or what? I don't remember if there was a sale or if I just finally decided it was time, but I couldn't make much sense of what I was seeing in the store. For SMT, all I saw were games called Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 1-3, but then there's also different games called Persona 2 and 4, and a second version of 4, but no 1 or 3… =/ So I got P4G because it was Vita native. /shrug

So I should play that too? And it's a strictly auto-pause, X-to-proceed affair? I can unlock the Vita, play turns 7-12 of the battle, and put it right back in my pocket? That'd be pretty sweet. Oh, my GF uses the Vita far more than I do though. I'm guessing I'd need to get to a save point before she switches back to Organ Trail or Hatoful Boyfriend? Probably not state-persistent like an iOS app would be?
SMT and Persona are different games in the same world, basically. Persona is more casual. You ought to have your gf play it on easy. She might like it.
And, yes, you have to save before closing the game if you aren't just suspending it to continue later.
 

allan-bh

Member
Oh, good point! We can use it to range down the PS4/XB1 monthly total, which would make the WIU LTD offset less. (^_^) From those two, I like the 234K/134K, and then for predictions, we'd make it an even 5K at 235K/135K. WIU would be 41K in that scenario, but again to nearest 5K would be 40K still for predictions.

Anything on 3DS? 60K? 65K? 70K?

Why you want a 100k gap if is actually 98k?
 

allan-bh

Member
Meh, that's within rounding error. Isn't that just 2k?

yes, but why 100k if creamsugar provided a specific number of 98k?

The point is try to have the most precise numbers as possible, these can be needed for doing math and try to figure sales in the future.
 

ethomaz

Banned
yes, but why 100k if creamsugar provided a specific number of 98k?

The point is try to have the most precise numbers as possible, these can be needed for doing math and try to figure sales in the future.
To be fair we don't know if it is 95k, 98k, 100k or 102k.

There are 5k rounding in previous gap shared in December (that is being used to reach these 98k).

Actual gap: 1383k
Previous gap 5k rounded: 1285k

There is no precise number but is close enough for us.
 

allan-bh

Member
To be fair we don't know if it is 95k, 98k, 100k or 102k.

There are 5k rounding in previous gap shared in December (that is being used to reach these 98k).

Actual gap: 1383k
Previous gap 5k rounded: 1285k

There is no precise number but is close enough for us.

How do you know that previous gap was 5k rounded since creamsugar constantly gives rounded to 1k?
 

ethomaz

Banned
How do you know that previous gap was 5k rounded since creamsugar constantly gives rounded to 1k?
Because if you sum the previous numbers you got a number bettwen 1k and 5k getting 1284k and not 1285k... that gives a 99k gap.

But like I said the 1284k is a sum of rounded numbers too... so it is not precise... we will never know the exact number but it is close enough for everybody here.

Complain about 100k when 98k is not precise is just weird...
 

RexNovis

Banned
I think REX Novis is more interesting in Far Cry Series now. :p

Yeah, I thought of Rex after I wrote that post too. However, unless there's a big twist or reveal halfway through the game, I don't think there are dinosaurs in it, which is disappointing for me and Rex, I'm sure. :p

Honestly, I would've been far more interested of it was a new ip instead of an iteration on the far cry franchise. One of my most anticipated games is still Robinson the journey. It may have single handedly sold me on VR. That said it does have pet saber tooth tigers sooooo all bets are off.

Oh, I have P4G on Vita too. I'm actually sorta confused about Persona and SMT. Are they different games, or what? I don't remember if there was a sale or if I just finally decided it was time, but I couldn't make much sense of what I was seeing in the store. For SMT, all I saw were games called Shin Megami Tensei: Persona 1-3, but then there's also different games called Persona 2 and 4, and a second version of 4, but no 1 or 3… =/ So I got P4G because it was Vita native. /shrug

So I should play that too? And it's a strictly auto-pause, X-to-proceed affair? I can unlock the Vita, play turns 7-12 of the battle, and put it right back in my pocket? That'd be pretty sweet. Oh, my GF uses the Vita far more than I do though. I'm guessing I'd need to get to a save point before she switches back to Organ Trail or Hatoful Boyfriend? Probably not state-persistent like an iOS app would be?

Think of the shin Megami Tensei series as a spin off of sorts on Persona. They have their similarities and differences. Persona 4 Golden is fantastic and is also turn based but is far more in depth than Cyber Sleuth. You're looking at much more of a time and attention commitment for Persona. That said it's an absolutely incredible game so I think it's deserving of that personally. Between the two though Cyber Sleith would probably suit you better especially since you can save at anytime anywhere outside of battle which facilitates short bursts of pick up and play.

Anyway, not that I don't like action. I like Diablo a lot, and Tomorrow Children is my current fascination. I just very rarely have a chance to fully focus on the game 100% of the time, and that doesn't tend to mesh well with modern game design. That's part of the reason indies appeal to me so much; it feels like less of a commitment, so I'm more likely to jump in to begin with. So yeah, I'm down for anything with a lot of rules, strategy, and bookkeeping. Speaking of, we need games like Aerobiz and Ports of Call again. Maybe that'd give me something to do…

Oh you're in the tommorow children beta? Totally jealous. Looking forward to that one. Q games never disappoints. They're brilliant.
 

allan-bh

Member
Because if you sum the previous numbers you got a number bettwen 1k and 5k getting 1284k and not 1285k.

But like I said the 1284k is a sum of rounded numbers too... so it is not precise... we will never know the exact number but it is close enough for everybody here.

Complain about 100k when 98k is not precise...

creamsugar has a history of posting the diff rounded to 1k, so is more likely that 1285k isn't rounded to 5k, then 98k is better than 100k.

Plus 100k vs. 98k leads to differences bigger than 2k, donny for example has 234k for PS4, I feel more comfortable with 230k. And in the future if we eventually need to use jan 16 numbers for figure out jan 17 sales, it's good that jan 16 numbers are the more precise as possible.

Is not a big deal for most people, but for who want to keep a record it's necessary to look at the details for have the best data as possible.
 

RexNovis

Banned
There really needs to be a category for games you can play while exercising.

I find retro JRPGs are pretty great for that on a suspend resume platform like Vita. Very easy to play whilst on the bike or treadmill. Would be cool to see games accept vocal commands as inputs. Like button presses on twitch or what have you. That way you can free up your hands for weights without stopping.
 
creamsugar has a history of posting the diff rounded to 1k, so is more likely that 1285k isn't rounded to 5k, then 98k is better than 100k.

Plus 100k vs. 98k leads to differences bigger than 2k, donny for example has 234k for PS4, I feel more comfortable with 230k. And in the future if we eventually need to use jan 16 numbers for figure out jan 17 sales, it's good that jan 16 numbers are the more precise as possible.

Is not a big deal for most people, but for who want to keep a record it's necessary to look at the details for have the best data as possible.

So with a lower PS4 estimate you're comfortable but when it's a lower xbone estimate you're uncomfortable. Am I missing something here?
 

ethomaz

Banned
creamsugar has a history of posting the diff rounded to 1k, so is more likely that 1285k isn't rounded to 5k, then 98k is better than 100k.

Plus 100k vs. 98k leads to differences bigger than 2k, donny for example has 234k for PS4, I feel more comfortable with 230k. And in the future if we eventually need to use jan 16 numbers for figure out jan 17 sales, it's good that jan 16 numbers are the more precise as possible.

Is not a big deal for most people, but for who want to keep a record it's necessary to look at the details for have the best data as possible.
Yeap... I was just being a bit annoying too :D

~230k for me is fine.
 

allan-bh

Member
So with a lower PS4 estimate you're comfortable but when it's a lower xbone estimate you're uncomfortable. Am I missing something here?

Please, don't turn this into a console wars.

I'm more confortably with 230k for PS4 because using cream's pie Xbox One number is 132k, so that's a 98k gap (like creamsugar said).

234k for PS4 doesn't fit a 98k gap, that's all.
 

RexNovis

Banned
creamsugar has a history of posting the diff rounded to 1k, so is more likely that 1285k isn't rounded to 5k, then 98k is better than 100k.

Plus 100k vs. 98k leads to differences bigger than 2k, donny for example has 234k for PS4, I feel more comfortable with 230k. And in the future if we eventually need to use jan 16 numbers for figure out jan 17 sales, it's good that jan 16 numbers are the more precise as possible.

Is not a big deal for most people, but for who want to keep a record it's necessary to look at the details for have the best data as possible.

If you have reason to believe your proposed figures are more accurate then explain. Or if you have access to more accurate figures please enlighten us. Otherwise your level of comfort with the figures doesn't really factor into the equation man.
 

allan-bh

Member
If you have reason to believe your proposed figures are more accurate then explain. Or if you have access to more accurate figures please enlighten us. Otherwise your level of comfort with the figures doesn't really factor into the equation man.

I already explained.
 
Please, don't turn this into a console wars.

I'm more confortably with 230k for PS4 because using cream's pie Xbox One number is 132k, so that's a 98k gap (like creamsugar said).

234k for PS4 doesn't fit a 98k gap, that's all.

You said it, not me. I was just curious on your reasoning considering your history in this thread but you explained it. Fair enough.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Btw, Dragons >>>>>>>>>>>>>>> dinosaurs

Sorry Rex. :p

You are dead to me. Real monstrous lizards are better than imaginary purple friends named Puff. Sorry not sorry.

I already explained.

Your saying that creamsugar has a history of rounding to the nearest 1k isn't exactly explaining anything. Especially when most of the evidence we've seen (including the contrast to official NPD numbers given by Muclair) would seem to indicate otherwise. Unless I'm misremembering somehow which is certainly possible.

TBH it's kinda unclear what you're getting at. I'm having a hard time parsing it.
 

allan-bh

Member
You said it, not me. I was just curious on your reasoning considering your history in this thread but you explained it. Fair enough.

In fact 234k for PS4 actually increases Xbox One number too.

Don't treat me as I crazy fanboy just because I defended earlier that Microsoft mistakes was an important factor for PS4 success, I'm not, it's just my opinion.
 

allan-bh

Member
Your saying that creamsugar has a history of rounding to the nearest 1k isn't exactly explaining anything. Especially when most of the evidence we've seen (including the contrast to official NPD numbers given by Muclair) would seem to indicate otherwise. Unless I'm misremembering somehow which is certainly possible.

TBH it's kinda unclear what you're getting at. I'm having a hard time parsing it.

Mulcair number is also rounded by 1k, so when you add consecutive months can make a small difference in gap.

Anyway, my point was already made, I want the most precise numbers as possible, because I like it and I think is important for who want to keep a record, that's it.
 

RexNovis

Banned
Mulcair number is also rounded by 1k, so when you add consecutive months can make a small difference in gap.

Anyway, my point was already made, I want the most precise numbers as possible, because I like it and I think is important for who want to keep a record, that's it.

Right but I'm not really following your arguement as to why one is more accurate than the other. For one you said cream specified a gap of 98k? Where did he say this? Then you also say cream rounds to the nearest thousand but don't really provide any evidence to show this. Unless cream, John Harker or Cosmic want to specify I don't really see a compelling argument for either figure as "conclusive" given what we currently know. It's better to treat it like a range IMO.
 

allan-bh

Member
Right but I'm not really following your arguement as to why one is more accurate than the other. For one you said cream specified a gap of 98k? Where did he say this? Then you also say cream rounds to the nearest thousand but don't really provide any evidence to show this. Unless cream, John Harker or Cosmic want to specify I don't really see a compelling argument for either figure as "conclusive" given what we currently know. It's better to treat it like a range IMO.

creamsugar said this month that the gap is 1383k, in december the gap was 1285k according to him, so jan gap= 98k.

230k for PS4 is 132k for Xbox One / 234k for PS4 is 134k for Xbox One.

That's why I believe 230k is better.
 

Welfare

Member
Right but I'm not really following your arguement as to why one is more accurate than the other. For one you said cream specified a gap of 98k? Where did he say this? Then you also say cream rounds to the nearest thousand but don't really provide any evidence to show this. Unless cream, John Harker or Cosmic want to specify I don't really see a compelling argument for either figure as "conclusive" given what we currently know. It's better to treat it like a range IMO.

This is what I was talking to donny about. Cream had posted a gap of 1285k back in December, so with this month, at 1383k, the gap would be 98k.

However, in the September NPD thread, Cream had also posted the gap was 862k, and thanks to George, we got accurate numbers that we can add to the gap, which adds up to 1283k at the end of 2015. Rounding numbers has basically muddied the results we can get through math.
 

allan-bh

Member
However, in September NPD thread, Cream had also posted the gap was 862k, and thanks to George, we got accurate numbers that we can add to the gap, which adds up to 1283k.

Unless creamsugar for some reason rounded to 5k in december (what he usually doesn't) 98k is a better gap for january than 100k.

The minor discrepancy with George is probably because we are adding rounded numbers together.
 

Javin98

Banned
Honestly, I would've been far more interested of it was a new ip instead of an iteration on the far cry franchise. One of my most anticipated games is still Robinson the journey. It may have single handedly sold me on VR. That said it does have pet saber tooth tigers sooooo all bets are off.
I'm with you, man, but I don't think I will be able to afford PSVR anywhere near launch. If I'm lucky, probably a year later. But damn, just imagine being in a land with dinosaurs around you.
2806155-6403970553-What-.png
 

Sterok

Member
Which is bigger in February

SFV or combined SKUs for FE Fates

For FE I'm more interested in whether it's going to be out of stock again. Awakening sold out fast, and with the 3DS underperforming with just about every recent game I can see retailers being cautious on how many copies they take.
 
Damn, Sony did pretty good for a January. Microsoft will need to lower the price of their box going forward. I would expect that they release a slim version of the console at E3, with a price drop. They can't compete at price parity.

Which is bigger in February

SFV or combined SKUs for FE Fates

wtf.gif
 

Danthrax

Batteries the CRISIS!
SFV will sell better than Fates, no question. Much less niche, much more hype. Capcom probably won't understock like Nintendo probably will.
 
SFV should do pretty well, but estimating sales by GAF hype never really works out.

I'm wrong a lot though.

I know this is a real hot take, but you don't need to thank me for it.
 
Top Bottom