No, this was actually a possibility (and precedented on console) and when they were asked at E3 (the Silliconera article), they did not say "no". That's their own doing.
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No, this was actually a possibility (and precedented on console) and when they were asked at E3 (the Silliconera article), they did not say "no". That's their own doing.
MasterSheen
Member
PREDICTION LEAGUE JULY 2017
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jun 26 to Jul 30):
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (35 days) - 340k
[PS4] Gundam Versus (25 days) - 200k
[3DS] New Nintendo 2DS XL (18 days) - 100k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 27k
[3DS] Ever Oasis (18 days) - 32k
[PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (18 days) - 170k
[NSW] Splatoon 2 (10 days) - 750k
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jun 26 to Jul 30):
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (35 days) - 340k
[PS4] Gundam Versus (25 days) - 200k
[3DS] New Nintendo 2DS XL (18 days) - 100k
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 27k
[3DS] Ever Oasis (18 days) - 32k
[PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (18 days) - 170k
[NSW] Splatoon 2 (10 days) - 750k
Went to just one store this week. Plenty of copies of ARMs but it looked like people were buying them. No Switch systems at all. Since it was already the weekend they were sold out.
But that's just my point. Normal people who have school or a job are not in a position to buy a system. I lucked out and got my pre-order from Amazon during the 10 minutes they were. If I hadn't been lucky then, I am pretty sure I would still not have a system right now.
I can see why the new Pokemon is not for Switch. Very few people in the target demographic for that game can even get a system.
3rd parties should actually be taking advantage of this time to establish some non-kiddie game series on the platform. Most of the systems in Japan at this point are in the hands of adults or teens.
Does anyone have any historical data on the amount of time it takes to increase production in a meaningful way?
But that's just my point. Normal people who have school or a job are not in a position to buy a system. I lucked out and got my pre-order from Amazon during the 10 minutes they were. If I hadn't been lucky then, I am pretty sure I would still not have a system right now.
I can see why the new Pokemon is not for Switch. Very few people in the target demographic for that game can even get a system.
3rd parties should actually be taking advantage of this time to establish some non-kiddie game series on the platform. Most of the systems in Japan at this point are in the hands of adults or teens.
Does anyone have any historical data on the amount of time it takes to increase production in a meaningful way?
This isn't just a production problem, its an industry wide NAND shortage which cannot be solved without either a decrease in demand (won't occur for several more months until the iPhone production slows down post stockpile for launch) or an increase in production facilities for it (which is currently under negotiations in Japan). That said, as we've been trying to track, there's reason to think that supply stream has slightly increased now.
SS
ßig
Unconfirmed Member
they can choose to be jobless
The reverse PS3.
AdventureRacing
Member
I think if there had been that big of a rise in shipments we would have had more anecdotal evidence pointing towards it. It seems like there was an increase in shipments but not quite that much. I'm thinking around 35K but would love to see more. The question is whether or not this will be a sustained increase leading up to the release of splatoon 2 when the bomb will be dropped.
I think this week with the release of ARMS and its possible hw spike will be the first reality check of the Switch Japanese honeymoon we've seen so far
Game will not set the charts on fire and Switch will not peak that much imho
Switch was on a honeymoon phase? What does that even mean?
I think they mean like, "The honeymoon was exciting, but now that it's over, marriage is shit."
Apply that to the console launch, "it was exciting, but now the Switch isn't as exciting anymore."
I don't get what you're saying. Switch hardware won't prak will only be true if Nintendo didn't ship enough for a good peak. We will see how ARMS did in a few hours, so let's just wait and see on that.
Isn't 3 months a little,you know,too long for a honeymoon phase?Even for real humans
There is such a thing as trying too hard to push a narrative you know.
The Switch is more like in its TV Soap Opera phase.
"Will the Switch ever ship more than 10 million units this financial year?"
Nintendo: Damn you NANNNNNNNDDDDDD!
"OMG, EA is trying to get back in Nintendo's life."
EA: "I want our partnership, to be unprecedented again."
"Square Enix is cosying up with Nintendo, but what are they hiding about DQXI for Switch?"
Square Enix: Look, I can't leave 3DS. She means a lot to me...
All this and more in, 'Switch of our Lives'.
"Will the Switch ever ship more than 10 million units this financial year?"
Nintendo: Damn you NANNNNNNNDDDDDD!
"OMG, EA is trying to get back in Nintendo's life."
EA: "I want our partnership, to be unprecedented again."
"Square Enix is cosying up with Nintendo, but what are they hiding about DQXI for Switch?"
Square Enix: Look, I can't leave 3DS. She means a lot to me...
All this and more in, 'Switch of our Lives'.
Smiles and Cries
Member
not gonna lie I would watch the shit out of this SOAP
The genre is such a tire fire that I am unsure what it's competing with...
titiklabingapat
Member
I do wonder what would happen if Japan continues to be an ever decreasing share of revenue and profits for many players, Nintendo included. Would Nintendo ever start designing for the West more? Zelda is arguably a Western franchise at this point. Same with Metroid. Japanese sales are just icing on the cake.
Magicpaint
Member
100k first week for ARMS would be great.
AdventureRacing
Member
100K would be a good start, hopefully with switch HW continuing to sell well ARMS will end up with long legs.
Zelda's redesign was partly to appease the entire global audience, which included Japan. BoTW is on track to be the highest-selling Zelda game in Japan in a VERY long time.
I get that Nintendo is a Japanese company and all and not courting Western tastes is considered apocryphal to some folks on GAF, but in case you haven't noticed, they have a global audience, and I think having titles that can sell in every region of the world is of a higher value and importance to them.
So my smallest estimation long before the testpunch (was announced?) was off by +20k.
Thanks hiska-kun, would be a good opening.
We've seen Bomberman R and 1 2 Switch have very good legs, I don't think it would be suprising for Arms to pass 400K before the end of the summer holidays. One of the major questions is how popular it would be among younger kids - right now the Switch user-base is mainly older demographic but that will change with the Splatoon 2 launch. I think the accessibility of motion controls and two player local on the go will once again ensure the title is successful. The Switch is simply much better portable device for pushing local multiplayer and Arms, MK8D, Splatoon 2 are all indications of how Nintendo plans to justify the higher price compared to 3DS.
That would be close to the baseline of 40K they were maintaining before May
Right, on same day as the DQXI 3DS Direct. Makes sense.
"Will the New 2DS LL make a big splash or a big flop?"
New 2DS LL: Why can't I! Be the new guy on the block? *Death Stare towards Switch*
All this and more on, 'Switch of our Lives'.
___
Okay, I'll stop that now.
Yes, but with the release of one supposed-to-be big first party release, doesn't suggest this could become once again a "baseline" at all
That would be really nice for ARMS - i had hope for a little more in April/May but i also didnt expect the Switch shipments to be this low for up to now. Hope it will have solid legs.
Waluigilicious
Member
I predicted 80k. 100k would be nuts!
Mr. Pointy
Member
100k ARMS first week would be great. Now it just needs to sell steadily until it hits 700k-1.2m at the end of 2018.
Minsc
Gold Member
If hardware is 40k for ARMS, and it goes back to 20k next week, I'll make a wild guess that Switch hardware for Splatoon 2's release month won't top 200k. (That's like maybe 75k release week, then 30k the next 3 weeks after).
PREDICTION LEAGUE JULY 2017
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jun 26 to Jul 30):
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (35 days) - 365,581
[PS4] Gundam Versus (25 days) - 216,734
[3DS] New Nintendo 2DS XL (18 days) - 151,200
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 59,072
[3DS] Ever Oasis (18 days) - 46,360
[PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (18 days) - 70,234
[NSW] Splatoon 2 (10 days) - 843,986
Predict how much these titles will sell in the month (from Jun 26 to Jul 30):
[NSW] Nintendo Switch Hardware (35 days) - 365,581
[PS4] Gundam Versus (25 days) - 216,734
[3DS] New Nintendo 2DS XL (18 days) - 151,200
[3DS] The Snack World: TreJarers (18 days) - 59,072
[3DS] Ever Oasis (18 days) - 46,360
[PS4] Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age (18 days) - 70,234
[NSW] Splatoon 2 (10 days) - 843,986
frankie_baby
Member
I wonder if they might be able to get 40k then maintain til splat
That's only one month away.
So either 40k shipments are maintained and assumedly stay the same even after Splatoon 2 releases.
Or, shipments drop back down to 25k suggesting the shortages are severe and we do not know if Nintendo will recover or be able to ramp up production.
That already sounds bad thinking about it.
Skullwaker
Member
100k for Arms would be a great result for a new IP (a fighter, no less) on a system that's sold ~1m. Hopefully it has some legs too.
Calm Mind
Member
NOOOOOO! I was invested in that.
Media Create:
Switch 37,709
PS4 18,251
New3DS LL 11,592
PS4 Pro 5,795
Vita 4,149
2DS 2,655
New3DS 815
Xbox One 308
PS3 298
Wii U 199
ARMS: 100k
Everything else: dead.
Switch 37,709
PS4 18,251
New3DS LL 11,592
PS4 Pro 5,795
Vita 4,149
2DS 2,655
New3DS 815
Xbox One 308
PS3 298
Wii U 199
ARMS: 100k
Everything else: dead.
Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
Member
RIP switch
Sarcasm?
Graphics Horse
Member
Big Round Number will have to wait a week
thestopsign
Member
Really good number for Arms.