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June 2012 NPD Predictions - Closes July 9

donny2112

Member
What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month.
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but Sales-Agers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Monday, July 9th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: May 27-June 30 (5 weeks, May was 4 weeks)
NPD Release: July 12th @ 4 p.m. EDT (thread posted ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

IMPORTANT: As of May 2012's results, NPD is now directly including Wal-Mart data in their totals. Previously they were only estimating for Wal-Mart, so there could be some significant changes in relative performance compared to previous years.

Format:

[360]
[3DS]
[PS3]
[PSV]
[WII]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[360] 300K        [360] 300 thousand
[360] 300,000     [360] 300.000
[360] 300000      [360] - 300000


Potential hardware impacting events in June:
Announcement of 3DSXL on June 22, releasing on August 19


May's Results - thanks to GarthVaderUK for compiling it all!

Info links added for anyone who wants to work it out themselves:

360: 160K
PS3: 124K
3DS: 113.5K
Wii: 71K
PSV: >50K, <56.8K

1 2 3 4 5 6

As you can see, some of this is based on rough numbers from last May, so it's not exact.
May 2011 NPD thread
June 2011 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
Have last month's results been posted eventually?
I mean, I would like to see how close/farfetched were my predictions but I don't know what to look for, since afaik search function cannot detect text put between <code> tags.

BTW, I'll give it another shot regardless, for the sake of it.


[360] 174k
[3DS] 135k
[PS3] 128k
[PSV] 61k
[WII] 83k
 
[360] 150k
[3DS] 90k
[PS3] 110k
[PSV] 30k
[WII] 40k

I wonder how far off a cliff the 3DS sales fall in the last week of June and all of July.
 
[360] 120K
[3DS] 95K
[PS3] 70K
[PSV] 35K
[WII] 40K

I wonder if we'll get some numbers on the subsidized/subscription based 360 eventually. It'd be very interesting to see how that's working.
 
See: Last month's thread. :p

In fact I tried, but since I couldn't find it in the last 3-4 pages of the thread I wanted to be sure said results had been posted, before having to search any further.

I have followed that thread for some time, but it's not that easy to find a single post between some hundred/thousand ones.
 

TheNatural

My Member!
I don't know what to predict except this is going to be another really, really low month with more data extrapolation from shitty PR's and Vita's numbers protected like nuclear bomb codes.
 

donny2112

Member
You can bookmark this link, it gets updated on time usually (although now july doesn't seem to be there yet :p)

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=413648

The month is the month of the prediction, so this is the "June" thread. Thanks for reminding about the link!

On the visibility, I try to bump it a few times during the week, but don't want to cross over into being an annoyance with it for the mods. The thread Teetris linked to above was created when the Search was down altogether, but I usually try to update it when the thread goes up. The method Road linked to seems good, too, though. :)
 
Any reason people are predicting a higher weekly average for 360 when there was no big deals or anything that I'm aware of? Plus the software releases were stronger in May.
 

donny2112

Member
The problem is that it's buried deep within my "subscribed threads" list. But if someone had posted there every time it was updated, then yes, I (and others who subscribe to that thread) would be notified.

Oh, we can do that. It'd just be monthly posts from me, but as long as that's not a problem with the mods, that'd work. :)

360: 250K
PS3: 200K
Wii: 50K
Vita: 75K
3DS: 300K

Need to follow the format in the OP to have your predictions counted.
 
It's funny seeing the DS left out of the thread, when it doubled Vita sales and outsold the Wii last month.

We never get accurate DS numbers anymore though. Although, it sucks that we don't get anything more than Vita estimates and the damn thing is only a few months old.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
Any reason people are predicting a higher weekly average for 360 when there was no big deals or anything that I'm aware of? Plus the software releases were stronger in May.
Don't know for sure, but could be the "buy a PC get a console" deals that were considered important last summer. *shrug*
 

donny2112

Member
[360] 192K
[PS3] 151K
[3DS] 150K
[WII] 80K
[PSV] 70K


Dang! These are just some historically bad sales to predict in June. However with coming off an historically bad May, not too surprising. :(
 

Petrae

Member
[360] 190K
[PS3] 165K
[3DS] 131K
[WII] 65K
[PSV] 58K

Notes: I have a feeling that I could be overselling X360 and PS3, but historically, June hardware sales seem to get a bump over the previous month... so I'm predicting a bump over May actuals. I think June is going to be another harsh month for hardware, especially when looking at the YOY comparisons. X360 alone could very well be down more than 60% versus a year ago and PS3 could be about -40%.
 

jvm

Gamasutra.
[360] 180K
[PS3] 140K
[3DS] 130K
[WII] 80K
[PSV] 50K

I do not think you can be pessimistic enough.
 

donny2112

Member
I do not think you can be pessimistic enough.

:lol

Yeah, this is a pretty bad period for the industry. Maybe someone should write about specifically how bad 2012 has been historically ...
:)

has it been said when it was ever this bad?

ms: 160k
nintendo: ~285k
sony: ~195k

total: roughly 640k systems sold for the month of may. that's including psp, ds, vita, 3ds, ps3, wii, and 360.

in may 2004, there were 548k ps2s, gamecubes, and xboxes sold. that was without the gba (can't find those numbers, but the gba was selling at or higher than ps2 levels at the time).
There were 496K GBAs sold in May 2004.
i think these numbers were pretty climactic, but not for the reasons people might hope. having the lowest console sales in over a decade despite (or maybe because of) seven systems on the market is a pretty remarkable thing.
And on the highest selling system for the month's sales ...
it probably is the smallest in over a decade. maybe the lowest since it was the snes, saturn, psx, and game boy, before the game boy got pokemon, before the n64 was released, and before the psx really took off.
 
I don't really understand the high 3DS predictions either. Nothing came out last month and there were no deals as far as I know.
 

donny2112

Member
I don't really understand the high 3DS predictions either. Nothing came out last month and there were no deals as far as I know.

If weekly sales stayed flat in June from May, then 3DS would've sold ~142K. 3DSXL was announced online with ~1 week left in the period, so that should almost be a non-factor to June's sales. Should be bigger in July, though.
 

Petrae

Member
I don't really understand the high 3DS predictions either. Nothing came out last month and there were no deals as far as I know.

There might have been a small increase due to end of school or purchases before summer vacations in June, though I suspect that these factors would be minor. The 3DS *should* see better results starting in July and then almost certainly in August.
 
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