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November 2013 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes December 9
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
GameBoy last year is #1. Sold nothing. What a failure!
Got to put some kind of limiter on that. Worst November in first 5 years or something.
Worst Novembers when the console wasnt declared dead or massively constrained by launch quantity ? Curious what it'd take for Vita/Wii U to escape that or is that a far gone conclusion they'll take 2 of those spots.
sjagolinzer
Member
[360] 750K
[3DS] 1500K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 1300K
[PSV] 150K
[WIU] 500K
[XB1] 800K
[3DS] 1500K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 1300K
[PSV] 150K
[WIU] 500K
[XB1] 800K
theprodigy
Member
redo time!
[360] 750K
[3DS] 1100K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 1200K
[PSV] 110K
[WIU] 280K
[XB1] 800K
[360] 750K
[3DS] 1100K
[PS3] 500K
[PS4] 1200K
[PSV] 110K
[WIU] 280K
[XB1] 800K
What that would tell me is that Nintendo cannot lose the interest of those many new 3DS owners by shifting too many resources to making WiiU software. I predicted around 190K for the WiiU on the basis that games such as Wii Party and Mario and Sonic, previous million sellers on the Wii, both bombed, meaning that "family fun" audience's interest wouldn't be strong enough to save the WiiU.
Mariah Carey
Member
I was slightly optimistic for Wii U's November: reports of sell-outs at Target, the bundles, praise for Mario, ramped-up advertizing... but the lack of Black Friday PR and the fact that Nintendo's press has only gotten worse since then, as if the people in the know know that the numbers were bad and that's the general talk of the industry, gives me an extremely bad feeling. At this point the 150k number wouldn't really surprise me.
Needs to be an objective determination. "Dead" wouldn't work, as there's a good number who would declare the Vita (and maybe even Wii U) "dead" this November, which would exclude them from comparison. Also, at what point is low November numbers indicative of a console already being "dead" vs. "on life support"?
Anyways, just to move this forward, here are some numbers.
GameCube in 2004 sold 350K.
Xbox in 2005 sold 188K.
GBA sold ~640K in its last "lively" November, but it was at 30K by the next December. Sucker dropped off the map in a hurry! :lol
Square2015
Member
[PS4] 1200k
[XB1] 860k
[WIU] 139k
[360] 600k
[PS3] 440k
[3DS] 1200k
[PSV] 130k
[XB1] 860k
[WIU] 139k
[360] 600k
[PS3] 440k
[3DS] 1200k
[PSV] 130k
RamzaIsCool
The Amiga Brotherhood
[PS4] 1200k
[XB1] 800k
[WIU] 175k
[360] 660k
[PS3] 510k
[3DS] 1300k
[PSV] 150k
[XB1] 800k
[WIU] 175k
[360] 660k
[PS3] 510k
[3DS] 1300k
[PSV] 150k
Needs to be an objective determination. "Dead" wouldn't work, as there's a good number who would declare the Vita (and maybe even Wii U) "dead" this November, which would exclude them from comparison. Also, at what point is low November numbers indicative of a console already being "dead" vs. "on life support"?
Anyways, just to move this forward, here are some numbers.
GameCube in 2004 sold 350K.
Xbox in 2005 sold 188K.
GBA sold ~640K in its last "lively" November, but it was at 30K by the next December. Sucker dropped off the map in a hurry! :lol
So basically if both sell under 200k which is seeming very likely at this point, they'll be historically low end of the spectrum on known sales? Crazy how things have settled.
D
Deleted member 20920
Unconfirmed Member
[PS4] 1200K
[PS3] 600K
[XB1] 700K
[360] 600K
[3DS] 700K
[PSV] 200K
[WiiU] 200K
[PS3] 600K
[XB1] 700K
[360] 600K
[3DS] 700K
[PSV] 200K
[WiiU] 200K
So, is this the biggest prediction thread already (in number of entrants)?
Thursday is going to be hilarious. However, I'm worried NPD will try to cockblock us even more. From what I've seen (wasn't here back then), November 2006 was when they started to threaten GAF.
Time to give a second thought to my predictions, anyway.
Thanks!
In the U.S? Not really surprising.
I think PS4 hype+lower price will say otherwise. The numbers could be close but I highly doubt it'll be above PS4, unless Canada bought a huge chunk of the NA units.
Sephiroth_VII
Member
It should be. We know they only shipped 1 mil. total for their "worldwide" launch across NA and the EU, which is what Sony shipped to the US + Canada alone.
This combined with the Xbone launching a weak later and poor yields means that the PS4 should sell more units, and that's without even taking the difference in public opinion of the two into account, not to mention the price difference. I will be very surprised if the Xbone manages to outsell the PS4 any time soon.
Not trying to be a fanboy, and I'm totally willing to eat crow if it turns out that I'm wrong, but just based on the number of units we've seen Sony and MS output per month so far, and the price, I'm confident in saying that the PS4 will have sold just about a million more than the Xbone by the end of FY13.
At least WW, but I don't think the number for NA will be in Microsoft's favour either.
Chinpoko_Master
Member
So was virtually everyone else.
Will compare once collating the entries. Biggest in a while, but Cheesemeister got a lot of entrants when he was doing the thread back in 2007, too.
sonycowboy had to delete some old posts back in 2005 from NPD crackdowns. 2006 was when they jumped the shark and discussed things with (and, um, directly misled?) NeoGAF directly. If you go back to the thread where EviLore announced the change, NPD had said they'd provide data to GAF that they never did as a way to soothe the loss of full NPD releases on the site (and garner NeoGAF support in that crackdown, I think).
shinra-bansho
Member
While it's past the deadline for changes, I wonder what the 2M number released implies for our predictions? Too low?
I imagine the bulk of those sales will be in the US, but only 7 of the 18 days they're referring to would have been in November NPD tracking?
I imagine the bulk of those sales will be in the US, but only 7 of the 18 days they're referring to would have been in November NPD tracking?
I think it's right in line with November predictions but a higher sell through in December than I thought.
9 days for NPD.
I thought I had changed it from 1.1 million to 998k, but I changed to 889k... That is the worst case scenario now, I think.
Also, I sense pre-emptive damage control PRs are back. November: PS4 > XBO and Microsoft won't say anything tomorrow.
December will probably be XBO > PS4, though.
shinra-bansho
Member
Oh, oops, calendar/math fail.
Hmm, December will be interesting, in that we have an inkling of what MS have sold in the first third of it already - which I'd peg at about 400-500K perhaps; are you expecting XB1>PS4 due to supply or demand?
SwiftDeath
Member
Yeah I think it'll likely be this
XB1 stock seemed far more prevalent in December so could totally see it selling more in December
Think PS4 > XB1 for November though
I would not change my (920k)
However people that predict 750-800k should be worry
theprodigy
Member
Sammy Samusu
Member
Unlikely? I feel like Nintendo would have said something by now.
Visualante2
Member
Brilliant!