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Dark Souls Mafia |OT| Git Gud or Die Trying

F

flatearthpandas

Member
nin1000 said:
R. I. P RAC it looks like your body is being used to get me killed.
Poor move mafia
Poor
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Uhh, you ought to know that posts like this are inversely scumread.

Muffin1611 said:
FEPs statement about a Nin lynch looking good was out of left field for me. Racs vote was, as I said, unpredictable.
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Muffin1611 said:
Uh, I'm not sure if that's what FEPs post is saying. Is he saying that rac was looking good as a player or as a lynch target?
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I said nin was looking better as a player, not as a lynch. Same with rac...

Muffin1611 said:
To act like I had some smoking gun on Nin but still voted kits is misrepresenting the situation. Back when I gave my reads, I explicitly said that I don't have strong negative reads, as is evident through kits making my scum #2 position based on a gut read and her rather dismissive playstyle.
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Dude, you better get some. And I'm not really happy you ignored everyone who just finished playing a game with scum kits based on some bullshit gut read with monkey.

hey_monkey said:
No, but I disagree with the rest. Everyone left has suspicion on them. rac was the cleanest. FEP would be next cleanest, but being universally town read should be suspicious enough and he did a lot of odd things yesterday. So now we just all point fingers at each other and hope for the best.
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Tell me more...

Vote: hey_monkey
I said everything that needs to be said here yesterday. Vocal on every mislynch, vocally against the only scum we actually hit, absolute ridiculous shade. How is being townread suspicious? You have a fucking green check and you've been alive for days. Are you joking me??

Anyway, isaac. I suspect you're the arsonist. The only day you've been active was n3 and the very beginning of day 4, right as the arsonist blew up a bunch of people who had been in the lighter side of activity (until d3 but burrows were already done). This activity read to me as either trying to distance yourself from the rest of the less active to avoid suspicion or more likely just increased interest in the game to admire your handiwork.

The no vote actually goes against this though. You will lose this game if no one gets the rest of the mafia. Neutrals best interest is to be participating. In this case, I begin to see a case on oreo, especially after that weak ass vote last night.

oreomunsta said:
There's a lot of good cases being made for Muffin, but I'm leaning towards a kits lynch. The reason why is actually fep's statement on LB activity. I'm trusting fep, because I've seen him be scum in anime mafia, and this is a different fep.
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And yet both me and sawneeks actually saying the opposite, that she was way different than lb and we wanted to see her under voting pressure for reactions, didn't bat an eyelash. Wouldn't be a huge deal in and of itself... except that lb meta from her teammates was your reason for suspicion.

Whoever the neutral actually is, I really hope you burrowed monkey last night.
 
H

hey_monkey

Banned
Oh boy, now you're just making stuff up. Which is weird because there are plenty of real reasons to suspect me. I'm on mobile on my way home. I'll have a lot to say in a bit.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
flatearthpandas said:
Dude, you better get some. And I'm not really happy you ignored everyone who just finished playing a game with scum kits based on some bullshit gut read with monkey.
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I was in the same game and read the whole thing. Nothing about her behaviour indicates that she's townie for me. That you were defending her so much yesterday is the weirder thing, definitely.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
Voting the only player who has a green check and is generally townread on the off chance that Trigger wasn't the cop or he hit the 1:16 chance of getting the godfather isn't really making me trust you more, fep.
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
hey_monkey said:
Oh boy, now you're just making stuff up. Which is weird because there are plenty of real reasons to suspect me. I'm on mobile on my way home. I'll have a lot to say in a bit.
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Eh, on every mislynch is more accurate, I didn't actually reread so sure, not really sure how gung-ho you were there bright and early on all of them. That's a fact. Except Stan. He never got a vote. Even after claiming scum under hypnosis. You've survived two nights as green check when you've received no pressure since then and have been widely town read. I'll read your defense but honestly, I don't think there's any justification for this situation except that you're scum.



Anywho, Isaac's activity: 10, 18, 8, 20
Give or take a few, I don't remember the middle two exactly. So actually doesn't completely line up with my impression of nothing until the end of d3.

Muffin1611 said:
I was in the same game and read the whole thing. Nothing about her behaviour indicates that she's townie for me. That you were defending her so much yesterday is the weirder thing, definitely.
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If you say so. At any rate, you were the other candidate so can't really fault your vote so not really interested in hearing any more weak justifications for it when you're already on record saying you didn't have any scum reads.
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
Muffin1611 said:
Voting the only player who has a green check and is generally townread on the off chance that Trigger wasn't the cop or he hit the 1:16 chance of getting the godfather isn't really making me trust you more, fep.
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The fuck are you even on about? I fully believe trigger was the cop and you just spelled out the most damning evidence against her. Why is the green check still alive when she is generally town read?
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
flatearthpandas said:
If you say so. At any rate, you were the other candidate so can't really fault your vote so not really interested in hearing any more weak justifications for it when you're already on record saying you didn't have any scum reads.
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So I'm supposed to make up badly justified scum reads like you instead, got it.

flatearthpandas said:
The fuck are you even on about? I fully believe trigger was the cop and you just spelled out the most damning evidence against her. Why is the green check still alive when she is generally town read?
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Are we really gonna enter this wifomy arguing now? "Why is the green check still alive" "Scum left the green check alive so we suspect them of being the godfather and lynch them for them!" etc. etc.
 
N

nin1000

Banned
flatearthpandas said:
The fuck are you even on about? I fully believe trigger was the cop and you just spelled out the most damning evidence against her. Why is the green check still alive when she is generally town read?
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7ac.jpg
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
Muffin1611 said:
So I'm supposed to make up badly justified scum reads like you instead, got it.



Are we really gonna enter this wifomy arguing now? "Why is the green check still alive" "Scum left the green check alive so we suspect them of being the godfather and lynch them for them!" etc. etc.
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Nah, just follow the green check that doesn't scum hunt and tries to convince town not lynch scum when we find them. Because claiming scum under hypnosis is less scummy than tunneling nin...

Okay lol. Not sure why I'm even bothering here.

Scum:
Monkey 99%
Muffin 70%

Neutral:
Isaac
Oreo

Split read.

Rest of y'all I find town. Legit done talking to muffin until you do something even remotely akin to helping town. A reads list might be a start. We'll see what monkey can say but honestly there's nothing to say there. Fully expecting a bunch of bullshit but there always that 1% chance she is just the worst townie ever.
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
Muffin1611 said:
What happened to this, FEP?
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First post on this page, dude. Very top. Right below the monkey vote comes my neutral candidate speculation. You want to try and pretend to be town and give your thoughts? You've got a vote on oreo work no justification whatsoever except "post your thoughts". I posted some thoughts about him? You want to comment on that it just keep shading my since I've caught your team?
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
flatearthpandas said:
Nah, just follow the green check that doesn't scum hunt and tries to convince town not lynch scum when we find them. Because claiming scum under hypnosis is less scummy than tunneling nin...

Okay lol. Not sure why I'm even bothering here.

Scum:
Monkey 99%
Muffin 70%

Neutral:
Isaac
Oreo

Split read.

Rest of y'all I find town. Legit done talking to muffin until you do something even remotely akin to helping town. A reads list might be a start. We'll see what monkey can say but honestly there's nothing to say there. Fully expecting a bunch of bullshit but there always that 1% chance she is just the worst townie ever.
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You know that the green check thing is circular reasoning, that's why you're done talking with me. I agree that monkeys CM push was weird, but nothing I would expect scum to do, too bold for that. More like a townie who wanted more information from him. And more information can only hurt scum.

And I gave a reads list last day, you wanna have 5 minute push notifications maybe? I can give you all the few things that changed, but don't talk to me acting like I'm doing nothing. You're not the first and it's infuriating.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Muffin1611 said:
To answer this from the last day:

Well, rac being a null means that I'm barely able to read him, so anticipating where his vote goes would have been fruitless effort.

To summarize what I tried to explain yesterday:

The most vocal players, you and monkey were against my Nin push. Monkey had some suspicions about him being neutral, but heavily criticized my vote. You were completely against it, Saw.

FEPs statement about a Nin lynch looking good was out of left field for me. Racs vote was, as I said, unpredictable.

Nearing day end, I thought that I maybe could hope for one more vote from somebody at most. And that's not enough.

And yes, I was perfectly fine with kits. The only person besides Nin and oreo I had a anti-town read on, and oreo fell through because I think he's the neutral.

To act like I had some smoking gun on Nin but still voted kits is misrepresenting the situation. Back when I gave my reads, I explicitly said that I don't have strong negative reads, as is evident through kits making my scum #2 position based on a gut read and her rather dismissive playstyle.

But that's enough defending myself. I think the way you, Saw, accused me of not sticking to my opinion while you were flip-flopping from me to oreo to kitsune to me seemingly seizing opportunity at the last minute to push my vote is a rather bad look.

Nonetheless, as I said on the last day, I think now is the time to pursue my neutral suspicion. Hey oreo, come out and post your thoughts.

VOTE: oreomunsta
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....

I think this might just be a difference in our playstyles then. I get what you're saying and everything but I suppose I just don't understand why you wouldn't have asked or pushed for Nin despite all of that. There is no harm in pushing who you think is scummy even if you're alone in that thought - in fact it might even get you some reactions you may not have been expecting or people may end up agreeing with you. So reading you just be like 'well, no one is going to follow me so I may as well not try' just doesn't seem like something a Townie would do, more like something someone would do if they didn't care who got lynched in the end.

But...like you said, I'm not really one to talk much in this situation. I keep going back-and-forth and even after reading it over a bit in the Night Phase I'm still flip-flopping. But you made the same mistake I did with FEP feeling good about Nin - I also read that as him being more willing to lynch him then not. You posts this Day Phase just don't feel manufactured and while it still conflicts with my earlier thoughts maybe I'm just..off base here.

I swear to god though if you're actually scum/neutral you're doing a helluva job making me feel conflicted.

Muffin1611 said:
Voting the only player who has a green check and is generally townread on the off chance that Trigger wasn't the cop or he hit the 1:16 chance of getting the godfather isn't really making me trust you more, fep.
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FEP already pointed out the former but are you saying you don't believe that's there an off-chance that Monkey is the Godfather? Crazier things have happened.

flatearthpandas said:
Eh, on every mislynch is more accurate, I didn't actually reread so sure, not really sure how gung-ho you were there bright and early on all of them. That's a fact. Except Stan. He never got a vote. Even after claiming scum under hypnosis. You've survived two nights as green check when you've received no pressure since then and have been widely town read. I'll read your defense but honestly, I don't think there's any justification for this situation except that you're scum.
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Honest question for you, FEP. Do you really believe that Scum would be that bold and not vote against their claimed teammate? That's the problem I have with Scum Reading Monkey is that I don't see a scummy actively defending Stan like that after what transpired, it would've been way easier and safer to just quietly bus him along.
 
N

nin1000

Banned
I shared my Concern about monkey yesterday and will probably follow you FEP since you are in my book town. After yesterdays end you pretty much came to the top.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
flatearthpandas said:
First post on this page, dude. Very top. Right below the monkey vote comes my neutral candidate speculation. You want to try and pretend to be town and give your thoughts? You've got a vote on oreo work no justification whatsoever except "post your thoughts". I posted some thoughts about him? You want to comment on that it just keep shading my since I've caught your team?
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So, why the vote on monkey?

And also you're reaching really hard right now. If anybody has lasting suspicions of oreo and made them public, it's me, and I want to hear more from him. Since D2. Maybe read a bit more.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
Sawneeks said:
FEP already pointed out the former but are you saying you don't believe that's there an off-chance that Monkey is the Godfather? Crazier things have happened.
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I'm saying that arguing whether the supposed green check is real or not and using it as reason to lynch is futile. Nothing else from monkey comes over as scummy to me, and this is pure WIFOM about how scum would deal with a green-checked townie when the godfather is a role in this game.
 
H

hey_monkey

Banned
I'm gonna start by saying that FEP IS right about one thing - there's no reason I should be alive at this point int he game. I got greenchecked by someone generally believed to be a cop. I should be dead to remove an active and semi-confirmed townie.

Except: my being alive benefits scum in two ways in this particular game: one, it leaves doubt open that I could be the godfather, leading to this exact moment. Numbers are dwindling. We need to find scum and we need evidence, and hey! I'm alive after the greencheck and I didn't vote for Stan. In fact I suggested we lynch CM first. So there you go. An easy case can be made for me.

But this is who I am. I will vocally argue against the grain. I will vote for the people I believe are anti-town. I don't always follow GAFia meta conventions. I am town, I have always been town, and this is how I have acted in every game. Because it's also how I am.

(which, let me point out, FEP is absolutely either intentionally misleading/lying or misremembering without bothering to check when he says I "gut read" kitsunelaine because I don't do gut reads. I hate gut reads. That is also consistent with my behavior. I built my case on kitsunelaine's actions, which I'll get into further in a moment.) I voted kitsunelaine because she was not reading the game. Town needs info; she wasn't interested. I voted her for ignoring a cop check/false claim situation and voting nin. I voted her for not voting. I voted her for sitting on a joke vote early. She exhibited anti-town behavior. That's not a gut read. That's analysis and evidence. From the flavor, it may have been wrong. But like I said - more on this in a second, and on what happened yesterday.

The second reason I am still alive despite a green check is that my scum radar is apparently real off this game. So why kill me if I'm loud, if people vote with me, and I'll get town killed? I'm doing scum's work for them. With others lying low, not making big cases, not pushing lynches, I come out as the most vocal. And so I'm leading the lynches. I talked about this early on and said it was dangerous.

You probably should lynch me because it removes a weapon scum has in mylo/lylo to sow uncertainty and dissension. If FEP or Sawneeks is scum, and it comes down to them and me going head to head trying to sway the others, it's gonna get ugly. If Sawneeks' math is right (someone should check)/if kits was town, we can afford one more mislynch (someone check before you act on that but I believe that's how it shakes out today). So unless we absolutely find scum we are pretty certain about? Take me out.

But I'll say this: watch FEP carefully. My vote today, if nothing changes, probably goes on isaac - it's hard to get past someone not voting at this point in the game and not really participating. I'll have to do some re-reading. But he's been shifting in very obvious ways. Maybe he's been shifting all game. I didn't see it until yesterday. Then and now, it's getting more bold. It might mean nothing. It might be something. But watch him.

I have at least one more post. I'd ask that you hold off on turboing me if you're going to.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
Sawneeks said:
....

I think this might just be a difference in our playstyles then. I get what you're saying and everything but I suppose I just don't understand why you wouldn't have asked or pushed for Nin despite all of that. There is no harm in pushing who you think is scummy even if you're alone in that thought - in fact it might even get you some reactions you may not have been expecting or people may end up agreeing with you. So reading you just be like 'well, no one is going to follow me so I may as well not try' just doesn't seem like something a Townie would do, more like something someone would do if they didn't care who got lynched in the end.

But...like you said, I'm not really one to talk much in this situation. I keep going back-and-forth and even after reading it over a bit in the Night Phase I'm still flip-flopping. But you made the same mistake I did with FEP feeling good about Nin - I also read that as him being more willing to lynch him then not. You posts this Day Phase just don't feel manufactured and while it still conflicts with my earlier thoughts maybe I'm just..off base here.
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I see where you coming from and agree that this might just my playstyle as an unexperienced member. Sticking with an unlikely lynch is something I just don't really see the positives in, probably because I myself haven't really seen or noticed what might happen because of it yet.
 
H

hey_monkey

Banned
Sawneeks said:
Honest question for you, FEP. Do you really believe that Scum would be that bold and not vote against their claimed teammate? That's the problem I have with Scum Reading Monkey is that I don't see a scummy actively defending Stan like that after what transpired, it would've been way easier and safer to just quietly bus him along.
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If nothing else, this. For chrissakes, this. I will bet anything at least one scum voted Stan merrily out the door. I didn't just refuse to engage, like kits, or not vote, like Muffin. I put a big target on my forehead. I'm a lot of things, but I'm not like, dumb.
 
H

hey_monkey

Banned
So the last thing I want to address here because I've got a pile of homework and grading that ain't doing itself tonight is that FEP started out by saying kits was playing like LB and then wasn't, and progressively he's gotten more and more stubborn/certain about that. But she posted like ten times in the scum chat for LB2 and said she was using a "confused newbie" gambit. Which wouldn't work here regardless. So tell me more about how we can use that play? From a game where y'all died d2? Now she's an expert scum and you're an expert on her?

That's a bit much. Stick to my being alive after the green check and being wrong on the lynches. Those things, at least, are true.

And what's this?
Nah, just follow the green check that doesn't scum hunt and tries to convince town not lynch scum when we find them. Because claiming scum under hypnosis is less scummy than tunneling nin...
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giphy.gif


vote: isaacnukem

Call it a pressure vote until or less he turns up to play and then we'll see.
 
H

hey_monkey

Banned
jk, for real last thing: there is at least one experienced player in the scum mix. nin, Sawneeks, FEP. The lynch patterns and the way they've navigated the neutral indicates as much. But which it is, I couldn't say right now and I wouldn't trust myself not to OMGus it.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
My current reads:

Town:
Monkey: I explained this already a bit, let me summarize it here. Plays completely townie, with the obvious standout being the CM/Stan situation. Looks to me like a townie trying another perspective, getting more information, etc. Too bold to do for scum. Green check is useless because of the godfather existence, how scum would act with it is unpredictable. Isn't a factor in my evaluation at all.

Leaning:
Sawneeks: Slight town lean. Was momentarily wondering if last days end was a scum member trying to push my lynch at an opportune time, but I understand her concerns with my playstyle. Everything else has been good scum hunting so far.

Scum:
FEP: Kicked off the votes against me, avidly defended kits, one of my scum reads, and is now onto trying to justify a monkey lynch with flawed logic.

Nin: Additionally to the reasons I listed in previous reads, Nin also seems to be very prone to influence without arguing himself, latest demonstration being FEPs arguments. Previously also happened with a push against Sawneeks.

Neutral:
Oreo: I still don't get the misdirection accusation from D2, he's also been very reserved and not really scum hunting, just checking in now and then. My biggest neutral suspicion.

Isaac: Made some quality posts, but is also very reserved like oreo or previously rac. Neutral or town. Not voting yesterday also doesn't look good.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
hey_monkey said:
If nothing else, this. For chrissakes, this. I will bet anything at least one scum voted Stan merrily out the door. I didn't just refuse to engage, like kits, or not vote, like Muffin. I put a big target on my forehead. I'm a lot of things, but I'm not like, dumb.
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I was avoiding a turbo. Don't know how not voting with only two votes or something left needed and with an open question I had for CM is suspicious like kits who refused to engage at all.
 
I

isaacnukem

Member
Hello. I'm not the arsonist. That would be awesome if true though. As for not voting, I fell asleep before the deadline. I would've voted for nin or Muffin. Be right back.
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
isaacnukem said:
Hello. I'm not the arsonist. That would be awesome if true though. As for not voting, I fell asleep before the deadline. I would've voted for nin or Muffin. Be right back.
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Well, I believe you that you probably fell asleep. I still think oreo is more likely to be the arsonist. But why didn't you vote earlier already?
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
Sawneeks said:
Honest question for you, FEP. Do you really believe that Scum would be that bold and not vote against their claimed teammate? That's the problem I have with Scum Reading Monkey is that I don't see a scummy actively defending Stan like that after what transpired, it would've been way easier and safer to just quietly bus him along.
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I think having that green check and the benefit of trigger being on that same vote might make it seem safe enough to try. If stan hadn't claimed then CM would have been lynched almost for sure so there is some logic in trying to use a green check to talk people out of it since he predictably did it as a joke. And it isn't like she picked up heat for it really.

Muffin1611 said:
So, why the vote on monkey?

And also you're reaching really hard right now. If anybody has lasting suspicions of oreo and made them public, it's me, and I want to hear more from him. Since D2. Maybe read a bit more.
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Because i feel very certain she is scum. More importantly, she is in the thread. Isaac and oreo are not so a vote there is water pressure now. Also also, in case i buy it tonight, i want it absolutely clear how i feel about monkey. Someone has to make that case because she hasn't been picking up heat. Also also also it is in everyone's best interest to neutral hunt today. So it's an easy day for scum to blend in since their effort toward finding the neutral will be genuine. Important to pepper in some actual scumhunting imo.

I think a smart neutral would have her burrowed though. Which would mean we could lynch her without worrying about an ignite tonight. But that's wifom depend.

hey_monkey said:
I'm gonna start by saying that FEP IS right about one thing - there's no reason I should be alive at this point int he game. I got greenchecked by someone generally believed to be a cop. I should be dead to remove an active and semi-confirmed townie.

Except: my being alive benefits scum in two ways in this particular game: one, it leaves doubt open that I could be the godfather, leading to this exact moment. Numbers are dwindling. We need to find scum and we need evidence, and hey! I'm alive after the greencheck and I didn't vote for Stan. In fact I suggested we lynch CM first. So there you go. An easy case can be made for me.

But this is who I am. I will vocally argue against the grain. I will vote for the people I believe are anti-town. I don't always follow GAFia meta conventions. I am town, I have always been town, and this is how I have acted in every game. Because it's also how I am.

(which, let me point out, FEP is absolutely either intentionally misleading/lying or misremembering without bothering to check when he says I "gut read" kitsunelaine because I don't do gut reads. I hate gut reads. That is also consistent with my behavior. I built my case on kitsunelaine's actions, which I'll get into further in a moment.) I voted kitsunelaine because she was not reading the game. Town needs info; she wasn't interested. I voted her for ignoring a cop check/false claim situation and voting nin. I voted her for not voting. I voted her for sitting on a joke vote early. She exhibited anti-town behavior. That's not a gut read. That's analysis and evidence. From the flavor, it may have been wrong. But like I said - more on this in a second, and on what happened yesterday.

The second reason I am still alive despite a green check is that my scum radar is apparently real off this game. So why kill me if I'm loud, if people vote with me, and I'll get town killed? I'm doing scum's work for them. With others lying low, not making big cases, not pushing lynches, I come out as the most vocal. And so I'm leading the lynches. I talked about this early on and said it was dangerous.

You probably should lynch me because it removes a weapon scum has in mylo/lylo to sow uncertainty and dissension. If FEP or Sawneeks is scum, and it comes down to them and me going head to head trying to sway the others, it's gonna get ugly. If Sawneeks' math is right (someone should check)/if kits was town, we can afford one more mislynch (someone check before you act on that but I believe that's how it shakes out today). So unless we absolutely find scum we are pretty certain about? Take me out.

But I'll say this: watch FEP carefully. My vote today, if nothing changes, probably goes on isaac - it's hard to get past someone not voting at this point in the game and not really participating. I'll have to do some re-reading. But he's been shifting in very obvious ways. Maybe he's been shifting all game. I didn't see it until yesterday. Then and now, it's getting more bold. It might mean nothing. It might be something. But watch him.

I have at least one more post. I'd ask that you hold off on turboing me if you're going to.
Click to expand...

Want to see some receipts there. You said i was making things up but i didn't accuse you of gut reading kits i don't think?
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
hey_monkey said:
So the last thing I want to address here because I've got a pile of homework and grading that ain't doing itself tonight is that FEP started out by saying kits was playing like LB and then wasn't, and progressively he's gotten more and more stubborn/certain about that. But she posted like ten times in the scum chat for LB2 and said she was using a "confused newbie" gambit. Which wouldn't work here regardless. So tell me more about how we can use that play? From a game where y'all died d2? Now she's an expert scum and you're an expert on her?

That's a bit much. Stick to my being alive after the green check and being wrong on the lynches. Those things, at least, are true.
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Do a little bit of homework, read through the scum chat for lb, ignore it was locked the day we got lynched, stuff some words in feps' mouth, call it a day...

What is this expert scum thing? We got lynched d2 lol, what are you talking about? I guess you think pretty highly of her if you're suggesting it's impossible to compare her performance under pressure from game to game... Setting that aside, I did feel I could read her and kicked off on her for pressure.

flatearthpandas said:
Anyway, I'll leave my vote on kits now but kind of talked my way partially out of it as I went. There's a case there but... yeah, enough to leave the vote for now. Saw, if you have suspicions you should make a case. I'm hunting arsonists today. If I don't find one, I feel fairly confident can still get mafia with a kits lynch.
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I flat out asked saw to put pressure on her hoping saw would get a similar read, and i also hinted that i might back out on the vote later.

So why would i do all this as scum, since you're pretty interested at shading me for yesterday?
 
M

Muffin1611

Banned
I'm gonna go to sleep soon, so I thought I'd expand on my FEP read a little bit.

I know I wrote "Kicked off the vote against me". Issue is in the how here.

As FEP did with his kitsune vote and read, she let other people do the work. With the kitsune thing, after letting others put the pressure on her, he at least argues a bit about voting her, her behaviour in LB etc.

My vote didn't have any justification at all, came out of nowhere. This was an argument of Saw, and I guess Monkey chimed in here and there. Then a bit later this weak post:

flatearthpandas said:
Somebody did have a similar reaction though. That was muffin. When he got the vote, he got aggressive defensive. "Lmao." A whole string of responses, multiquoting himself. Kits defended kind of, but calmly. And monkey was putting on real pressure, going hard on how what kits was saying didn't make sense etc.

Yeah. Keeping muffin. It's not a hard read and ultimately i won't mind if someone else catches the lynch. But I don't think it should be kits.
Click to expand...

I defended myself. Quoting myself. Because you asked something I explained before already. THE HORROR!

I don't know about you, FEP, but if somebody votes me just like that after I answered a simple question and doesn't even give any reasons immediately, I'm sorry to say that I found it a mix of funny and random.

What should I have done to make it less suspicious for you? Instead of quoting, summing it up in a new post?
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
nin1000 said:
I shared my Concern about monkey yesterday and will probably follow you FEP since you are in my book town. After yesterdays end you pretty much came to the top.
Click to expand...

Nin my friend, I love you, but why would you ever follow someone in these games? Why not make reads and accusations based on what you think and not on what others think.

Speaking of which, what happened to that whole 'Saw you're playing so un-sawneeks like' from the last Day Phase?

isaacnukem said:
Hello. I'm not the arsonist. That would be awesome if true though. As for not voting, I fell asleep before the deadline. I would've voted for nin or Muffin. Be right back.
Click to expand...

But not Kits or Oreo?

flatearthpandas said:
I think having that green check and the benefit of trigger being on that same vote might make it seem safe enough to try. If stan hadn't claimed then CM would have been lynched almost for sure so there is some logic in trying to use a green check to talk people out of it since he predictably did it as a joke. And it isn't like she picked up heat for it really.
Click to expand...

I can see your point....but at the same time, Monkey has been scum hunting ( contrary to what you claim ), asking questions, etc. and hasn't done anything overtly Scummy outside of that Day where she defended Stan. I feel like the evidence presented so far points at her being more Town than Scum unless she really did make a mistake and hard defended Stan, but even then everything else doesn't scream 'look at me i'm deceiving you all'. But I feel like in a game with no Scum Chat that Scum would play it far more hesitantly, no?
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
I feel like I almost walked into a different game right now.

Muffin is being sane and sort of townie and FEP is talking crack conspiracy theories and stringing together weird reasoning.

what is going on here
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Also if I had to take a guess at Neutral, I'd put a pin on Oreo or maaaaybe Isaac. I still Town Lean on Isaac for his posts and his no vote yesterday really does go against someone trying to blend in 'just enough' to live but he really does lack a presence, whereas Oreo is either sheeping somebody's thoughts or copying their reads. Think Oreo edges out here, honestly.

or if we're going out for crack conspiracy theories since that's the hip thing to do; FEP is Neutral and went nuts to cause enough friction so Scum wouldn't waste a NK on him and he's town read by enough people before all this that he might be able to be in contention long enough to just not be lynched.

but sans tinfoil hat I doubt that's the case.
 
N

nin1000

Banned
Sawneeks said:
Nin my friend, I love you, but why would you ever follow someone in these games? Why not make reads and accusations based on what you think and not on what others think.
Click to expand...

Don't worry. The game is still in the early phases of this day phase.
In the end my vote will go to the person I feel is the most scum. In the end I just follow my gut.


Sawneeks said:
Speaking of which, what happened to that whole 'Saw you're playing so un-sawneeks like' from the last Day Phase?
Click to expand...


I cooled down. I just tried to explain to myself why you were flip flopping like flipper in a flipper table.
 
H

hey_monkey

Banned
flatearthpandas said:
I think having that green check and the benefit of trigger being on that same vote might make it seem safe enough to try. If stan hadn't claimed then CM would have been lynched almost for sure so there is some logic in trying to use a green check to talk people out of it since he predictably did it as a joke. And it isn't like she picked up heat for it really.
Click to expand...
There was never any chance whatsoever that Stan wasn't gonna get lynched that day no matter what I said. But I kept doing it anyway. To re-ask your own question in another post, why would I do that if I was scum? There was never any reason to trust my green check. Not then, not now, especially not after Verelios died, and I've never tried to leverage it because it's not leverage.

As for why you're doing all this? Lynching me is not a bad argument. Which, y'know, I also said. For more reasons, even. I dunno if you're on the level or not but regardless, I'm as good a candidate as others. Just don't tunnel.

Why'd you yell about the doctor at day's end? Let's not sweep that under the rug.
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
Anyway, for some mechanics.

7 players

4 town
2 mafia (ignite came d3, neutral definitely wasn't the 1 antitown we know is gone)
1 neutral

We know monkey cannot be neutral.

Town can afford two mislynches and still win, best case scenario. But that requires the neutral to ignite mafia and mafia to try and nk the neutral.

That looks like
D4: 9p, 6t, 2m, 1n
D5: 7p, 4t, 2m, 1n
D6: 5p 3t 1m 1n

No, I was wrong. Town loses this game in two mislynches barring complete ineptitude from the scum. It would look something like this:

D7: 4p 2t 1m 1n

This means the mafia attacked the neutral twice. Absolute stupidity, but town would theoretically be able to pull a win.

So no, we have one ml available if that. Worst case scenario, we can lose the game tonight

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 4p 1t 2m 1n

We ml, maf hits town, neutral ignites town. Town loses, either scum team can win.

D7 (town lynched, maf hits n): 3p 0t 2m 1n
Maf wins
D7 (maf lynched, maf hits town): 2p 0t 1m 1n
Tie vote, maf can't kill neutral, neutral eventual burrows and ignites.
Neutral wins
D7 (maf lynched, hits neutral): 3p 1t 1m 1n
Town lynch neutral wins.
Mafia lynch neutral wins
Neutral lynch mafia wins

What this means is we need to get our scummiest player dead today. Going to run the numbers in a second, but i think we should go for mafia. Mafia also fears the neutral and can blend in perfectly today putting forth actual effort (muffins scumhunting is going to be a scum tell today in scumception). But let's pretend we get mafia today.

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 4p 2t 1m 1n

Still pretty grim actually. This is a bad case in which maf hits town and neutral ignites town. However, if town can hit the next maf

D7: 3p 2t 0m 1n

And then hit the neutral D7 for a win. Not great odds but this is doable and again assumes a bad night.

Variations include

D6 (nk hits n, town ignite): 5p 3t 1m 1n
D6 (nk hits town, maf ignite): 4p 2t 0m 1n
D6 (nk hits n, maf ignite): 5p 4t 0m 1n

Actually there's a bunch but again even or worst case is still winnable if we get maf.

Now, if we get neutral

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 5p 3t 2m 0n

This is d6 lylo. Standard. Town still needs two maf lynches in a row to win.

I would prefer to lynch mafia today actually. Even our worst case scenario is doable and the neutral adds in a lot of potential favorable opportunities such as a mafia ignite or wasting a nk. Now here's an interesting thing. I want to revisit hell scenario where we ml today, eat a nk, and eat an ignite.

D5: 7p 4t 2m 1n
D6: 4p 1t 2m 1n

We ml, maf hits town, neutral ignites town. Town loses, either scum team can win.

D7 (town lynched, maf hits n): 3p 0t 2m 1n
Maf wins
D7 (neutral lynched): game over mafia wins
D7 (maf lynched, maf hits town): 2p 0t 1m 1n
Tie vote, maf can't kill neutral, neutral eventual burrows and ignites.
Neutral wins. Impossible, mafia can tie the vote
D7 (maf lynched, hits neutral): 3p 1t 1m 1n
Town lynch neutral wins.
Mafia lynch neutral wins
Neutral lynch mafia wins
Click to expand...

Actually, just realized, hell scenario mafia almost always wins because they can tie any vote that goes against them.

D7 (mafia tie, nk town): 3p 0t 2m 1n
Maf wins
D7 (mafia tie, nk n): 4p 1t 2m 1n)
Neutral can ignite a mafia n7 and possibly win

The only way mafia loses is if they guarantee not to hit the neutral. Which having monkey around will guarantee. But this is so deep down the rabbit hole I don't think it's even wifom for why monkey if alive.


Tl;dr
We have one ML available where we can still win
If we lynch neutral today we go into standard lylo tomorrow
If we lynch mafia today anything can happen. God case we enter tomorrow with all current town players still alive.

Now, I think monkey is mafia. I think lynching mafia gives town the best chance of winning.

Vote: hey_monkey

If I'm wrong and she is town, she is the best ml possible as her being alive gives scum a huge advantage in the night because they can guarantee that they don't actually target neutral in the night phase by targeting a green check.

But really, don't think she's town. This was a long rambler, will let it digest.
 
F

flatearthpandas

Member
Sawneeks said:
Also if I had to take a guess at Neutral, I'd put a pin on Oreo or maaaaybe Isaac. I still Town Lean on Isaac for his posts and his no vote yesterday really does go against someone trying to blend in 'just enough' to live but he really does lack a presence, whereas Oreo is either sheeping somebody's thoughts or copying their reads. Think Oreo edges out here, honestly.

or if we're going out for crack conspiracy theories since that's the hip thing to do; FEP is Neutral and went nuts to cause enough friction so Scum wouldn't waste a NK on him and he's town read by enough people before all this that he might be able to be in contention long enough to just not be lynched.

but sans tinfoil hat I doubt that's the case.
Click to expand...
Damn, saw this right after i finished posting about why i think we shouldn't hunt neutrals. Tinfoils hats are go.

But honestly, i don't like this conspiracy angle. It isn't conspiracy. "Why would scum do something so obviously scummy" is not a defense. She did it because she thought she could get away with it. That's why. Why would a townie not want to lynch scum? That is the real question. Why do mafia want to shoot targets in the dark where a neutral will block their night kill when they can guarantee their kill by striking guaranteed town? And this feeds into my end part...

hey_monkey said:
There was never any chance whatsoever that Stan wasn't gonna get lynched that day no matter what I said. But I kept doing it anyway. To re-ask your own question in another post, why would I do that if I was scum? There was never any reason to trust my green check. Not then, not now, especially not after Verelios died, and I've never tried to leverage it because it's not leverage.

As for why you're doing all this? Lynching me is not a bad argument. Which, y'know, I also said. For more reasons, even. I dunno if you're on the level or not but regardless, I'm as good a candidate as others. Just don't tunnel.

Why'd you yell about the doctor at day's end? Let's not sweep that under the rug.
Click to expand...
Better question. Why would you do that as town? If Stan was scum, CM was town. Full stop. Stan was outed scum. As town, why do you try and lynch the town?
nin1000 said:
Would love to hear a response to that.
The 'doctor is still alive' thing came out of nowhere
Click to expand...

Why yell about the doctor? I said in the post, to give scum some wifom. If doctor is alive, they are potentially blocking nks. Presumably on their top town or themselves.

I finished the day throwing shade at monkey. If I was the doctor, who would I be unlikely to be protecting? Who is definitely not neutral? Monkey would be the safest nk last night imo. Posted last second in case the doctor really is alive so there wouldn't be any drama.
 
I

isaacnukem

Member
hey_monkey said:
No, but I disagree with the rest. Everyone left has suspicion on them. rac was the cleanest. FEP would be next cleanest, but being universally town read should be suspicious enough and he did a lot of odd things yesterday. So now we just all point fingers at each other and hope for the best.
Click to expand...
I'm not sure if rac was the cleanest, only maybe by the virtue of being null? I actually think oreamunsta is cleaner.
 
I

isaacnukem

Member
flatearthpandas said:
I said everything that needs to be said here yesterday. Vocal on every mislynch, vocally against the only scum we actually hit, absolute ridiculous shade. How is being townread suspicious? You have a fucking green check and you've been alive for days. Are you joking me??

Anyway, isaac. I suspect you're the arsonist. The only day you've been active was n3 and the very beginning of day 4, right as the arsonist blew up a bunch of people who had been in the lighter side of activity (until d3 but burrows were already done). This activity read to me as either trying to distance yourself from the rest of the less active to avoid suspicion or more likely just increased interest in the game to admire your handiwork.

The no vote actually goes against this though. You will lose this game if no one gets the rest of the mafia. Neutrals best interest is to be participating. In this case, I begin to see a case on oreo, especially after that weak ass vote last night.

Whoever the neutral actually is, I really hope you burrowed monkey last night.
Click to expand...
Has anyone actually been good at Mafia who lead mislynches left and right? I have never seen someone like that in all my games. If hey_monkey is scum, this is one of the most impressive scum performances I'd have ever seen.

Also, I almost blushed about your thoughts of me being neutral. If I were a neutral, I'd try to hit scum, help town, and concede defeat. I'm a good guy, like that. Also, even though I didn't vote, someone still got lynched. How would that be against my aims if I were neutral? Remember, the neutral cannot be killed by scum. If I were the arsonist, I only need to have one scum dead, and after that I'm on the mercy of town.
 
I

isaacnukem

Member
hey_monkey said:
Oh boy, now you're just making stuff up. Which is weird because there are plenty of real reasons to suspect me. I'm on mobile on my way home. I'll have a lot to say in a bit.
Click to expand...
I can only think of two. The obsession of the no-lynch(neutral whiff) and your push against CM when Stan was confirmed hypnotized(scum whiff). Other than that, you're gold in my book.
 
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