Muffin1611
Banned
I mean as in the discussion got pretty heated at some point, and I don't think the neutral would let it come to that and rather bail and switch what he's looking at.
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Dark Souls Mafia |OT| Git Gud or Die Trying
- Thread starter squidyj
- Start date
I mean as in the discussion got pretty heated at some point, and I don't think the neutral would let it come to that and rather bail and switch what he's looking at.
hey_monkey
Banned
ha! sorry. I'm in class and multitasking and it's easy for me to forget to finish a sentence or something, and I've got some other things on my mind. It's been a day. But here it's also influenced by the fact that I'm thinking through it.
Mafia FEP could easily be trying to get someone being scumread lynched as the other half of the reveal with kits.
Neutral FEP would be going against so much of the this-game lore we've constructed around the neutral.
Scum FEP could be trying to find the neutral to avoid for NK. Neutral FEP could be trying to build cred so that if he draws the NK, he argue it away. Neutral FEP could be trying to guide NKs by spreading so many seeds. But by saying oreo, isaac, and you could all be neutral candidates, and by going so hard after me... how is that productive?
This is what I keep coming back to: why the fuck does any FEP do this at all? I keep going back to the if-thens (like this post) - would neutral FEP be trying to figure whom to best burrow/ignite to maximize his chances at wincon?
I don't have a straight answer on this one. Let me ask you a question: do you think FEP is town?
hey_monkey
Banned
It may be that in general today I'm hesitant to say "x is true" because we are getting close and I haven't been super accurate here.
Muffin1611
Banned
Well, I'm just speculating, but either kits was scum and FEP was getting a bit desperate and feared we might go for him after he was kits biggest defender yesterday, or if kits wasn't scum, town yesterday voiced concerns or got more critical of his real scum partner yesterday and FEP thought now may be the time to go for the green check and godfather angle, and let the discussion around monkey dominate this day. That's all I could think of right now.
Wouldn't that make him look more suspicious?
I'll go back to what I asked Muffin: how does it make sense for a Scum!FEP to do what he is doing? He was universally Town-Read up until the point he flopped away from Kits and even then, wouldn't it have been far safer for him to just keep going as normally instead of going all-out and pulling strawman arguments out of thin air?
To answer your question I have 2 ideas as to what's happening: FEP is Town and tunneling really hard or he's Neutral. I don't think a Scum!FEP would do what he's doing even if Kits was Scum. There is no way to 100% verify Kits flip so the idea that he's trying to obscure it and is going this far to do so seems kinda insane. I won't ignore the theory that it's possible but if FEP really was going to go that hard on someone - why Monkey of all people? It would have been way easier to go after someone else. Now prior to all of this FEP is pretty universally Town Read and I honestly think he was playing really Townie, so I can see here that he found something 'scummy' and just dug himself into a hole and refuses to leave it, digging up any scrap of info he finds to push his point because he believes he's right.
Now, a Neutral FEP requires some tinfoil hat theory so buckle up kids. Neutral FEP gets by on a fairly Townie game but hasn't hit Scum, he's also 1 of 3 of the Top posters in the game and might even be considered a 'Town Leader'. Maybe he realizes if he burrows one of the other two Top Posters ( myself or Monkey ) and pushes for the other to be lynched and succeeds, suddenly he's the Top Poster and has control over the conversation. This would explained why he claimed 'WIFOM Doctor' at the end of the last Day Phase - didn't give time for the real Doctor to counterclaim and, if by the start of the next Day he wasn't counterclaimed and there wasn't a NK, could claim he was a Doctor and protected himself. When, in reality, he's the Neutral and couldn't be NKed anyway.
But, as I said, Neutral FEP requires enough tinfoil to create a small boat and the simpler explanation is usually the truth so I'd put him at Tunneling Townie. :x
I'm not asking for you to say 'X is true while Y is not', but I want to know what you believe is more likely given everything that's happened.
Wouldn't it just be easier for him, if Kits was Scum, to just play it off and keep going? Drawing this type of attention to yourself as the last Scum puts you in the crossfire more and that isn't something Scum want.
For your second theory - who do you think was his Scum partner then? And why not go for someone easier to Tunnel than Monkey?
also, willing to vote for him as Scum but still 'just speculating' on reasons he could be scum? 🤔
hey_monkey
Banned
I don't disagree. This is what I keep coming back to - NONE of this makes any sense. So many of the things he's said can be easily disproven or rejected outright. So without any kind of explanation or motivation it's hard to figure, and with no flips, it won't get any easier to figure.
The only reason I'm hesitant to believe tunneling townie is that this did start the day of the Stan lynch and he wasn't tunneling. He just kept shading. This level of sudden determination just seems weird from any angle. I too was reading FEP as town. But now I just don't know.
That's a good explanation for the doctor yelling, actually. The rest, honestly, I don't think is as tinfoil hat as any of the other possible explanations; it's weird no matter how you slice it. But I actually quite like that doctor explanation.
Here's the problem I have with everything: every possible alignment, it's easier for FEP not to do this. Which is why I'm just like ¯\_(ツ
_/¯I'm not married to the vote. I'm essentially voting on lynch all liars/shade while voting elsewhere as scumtell/something is causing this. But I'm open to other developments. Problem is this has overshadowed every damn thing. Even though there are other conversations happening, we're going to circle back to this because it's weird.
nin, oreo, isaac - would love your thoughts.
Muffin1611
Banned
I'm not speculating why FEP is scum, I'm speculating why scum FEP would change tactics like that, as I was asked to.
I'm pretty sure I told you all already that imo weak justifications for my vote as well as kits defense yesterday and incoherent arguments today are the main reason why FEP comes over scummy to me.
I don't disagree. This is what I keep coming back to - NONE of this makes any sense. So many of the things he's said can be easily disproven or rejected outright. So without any kind of explanation or motivation it's hard to figure, and with no flips, it won't get any easier to figure.
The only reason I'm hesitant to believe tunneling townie is that this did start the day of the Stan lynch and he wasn't tunneling. He just kept shading. This level of sudden determination just seems weird from any angle. I too was reading FEP as town. But now I just don't know.
That's a good explanation for the doctor yelling, actually. The rest, honestly, I don't think is as tinfoil hat as any of the other possible explanations; it's weird no matter how you slice it. But I actually quite like that doctor explanation.
Here's the problem I have with everything: every possible alignment, it's easier for FEP not to do this. Which is why I'm just like ¯\_(ツ
I'm not married to the vote. I'm essentially voting on lynch all liars/shade while voting elsewhere as scumtell/something is causing this. But I'm open to other developments. Problem is this has overshadowed every damn thing. Even though there are other conversations happening, we're going to circle back to this because it's weird.
nin, oreo, isaac - would love your thoughts.
Tunneling Townies don't always start out of the blue - they can start as shade and develop into a Tunnel. Wasn't that how Natiko started?
And I don't disagree with that, none of these actions make sense from any alignment as it either gets more attention ( which anti-town don't want ), dominates discussion ( which isn't great for Town ), and causes a Thunderdome type situation ( worse for anti-town, not great for Town ). But since it IS happening, I'm trying to figure out which scenario fits because it HAS to be one of the 3 regardless if its' 'proper play' or not.
I also agree with your last point there...if we lynch elsewhere today I HIGHLY doubt Scum touches either of you if you're both Town and if one of you is Scum, it's doubtful they NK the other. Meaning we'd have to sort this all out tomorrow since I doubt this topic will be dropped and it would likely dominate tomorrows discussion too.
would also like to hear from Nin, Oreo, and Isaac.
I feel like FEP's actions today have to be looked at in concert with your other reasons you listed. You said if Kits is Scum then a Scum!FEP would've gone hard against Monkey to obscure the Kits lynch, you also speculate that if Kits WASN'T Scum then he's doing it to protect someone else. I'm asking which you feel is more likely because if he IS Scum, what's the justification for what he's done today?
I don't disagree with your reasons for scum reading him ( sudden Kits flip and arguments that make no sense ) but I don't get the reason for them, especially the latter. That's what I'm asking.
also I apologize if I don't make sense. For some reason I had to read your reply a few times before I sort of got what you were saying. >.>
Muffin1611
Banned
I guess the "kits wasn't scum and protecting somebody else" scenario is more likely, because a sole scum acting on his own this way is almost throwing the game. The risk of going against monkey is a bit high for the other one.
The only reason that I'm seeing is that FEP didn't think pushing a monkey lynch was THIS hard, because he may have thought that the combination of monkey going for CM and being still alive as a green check would be enough to convince us of monkey being the godfather, not expecting that we'd see the CM thing as something monkey would do and not giving that much weight to the godfather role. As monkey resurfaced, FEP laid the seeds for going against her a while ago already, and maybe thought one additional night for the green check to survive would be needed to convince us.
The problem I have is that I personally wouldn't do any of this if I were any alignment. So I can't help but see FEP as scummy even if I don't fully grasp the reason.
hey_monkey
Banned
Shit, even I said the basic reasoning makes sense to lynch me. It's all the extra added shit that stretches into the beyond.
Muffin1611
Banned
I'm gonna
unvote
for now, we're in kind of a critical spot right now. Not that I sleep over a sudden movement against possible neutrals and my vote helps reach majority prematurely.
Who is flying WAY TOO MUCH under the radar right now is Nin imo. I don't know if I can really extract more from what I've seen thus far till the vote, I'm feeling incredibly insecure and paranoid on him Can't help but think of him of a possible scum avoiding any connection with FEP right now.
unvote
for now, we're in kind of a critical spot right now. Not that I sleep over a sudden movement against possible neutrals and my vote helps reach majority prematurely.
Who is flying WAY TOO MUCH under the radar right now is Nin imo. I don't know if I can really extract more from what I've seen thus far till the vote, I'm feeling incredibly insecure and paranoid on him Can't help but think of him of a possible scum avoiding any connection with FEP right now.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
flatearthpandas (1) 3 more votes to majority
hey_monkey 1631
hey_monkey (1) 3 more votes to majority
flatearthpandas 1501 1544
flatearthpandas 1544 1565
flatearthpandas 1632
isaacnukem (0):hey_monkey 1524 1534
oreomunsta (0):Muffin1611 1491 1662
No active vote for Day 5: isaacnukem, Muffin1611 (has previously voted), nin1000, oreomunsta, Sawneeks
Day 5 Postcount: flatearthpandas 29, hey_monkey 35, isaacnukem 19, Muffin1611 42, nin1000 15, oreomunsta 8, Sawneeks 21
Day 5 ends:
Automated vote tally here
4 votes for majority
flatearthpandas (1) 3 more votes to majority
hey_monkey 1631
hey_monkey (1) 3 more votes to majority
flatearthpandas 1632
isaacnukem (0):
oreomunsta (0):
No active vote for Day 5: isaacnukem, Muffin1611 (has previously voted), nin1000, oreomunsta, Sawneeks
Day 5 Postcount: flatearthpandas 29, hey_monkey 35, isaacnukem 19, Muffin1611 42, nin1000 15, oreomunsta 8, Sawneeks 21
Day 5 ends:
Automated vote tally here
4 votes for majority
flatearthpandas
Member
Scum hunting is results based. Someone batting 0 when scum had been exposed is impressive.
Not true. That is just the best case scenario, which is only possible with the neutral alive. One of the very first things i ran was a worst case scenario for hitting mafia.
This is the worst case scenario if we lynch mafia. And town monkey being alive makes it most possible because mafia definitely doesn't miss their nk. But even in this worst case scenario, town can still win the game if we then lynch mafia and then the neutral.
So, three successful lynches in a row. Same as if we kill the neutral today, we enter lylo for the last two. The difference is that this is the worst case scenario for hitting maf today and the best case for hitting the neutral.
Your read list from other phases is irrelevant today. Today, your scum lists have been made of everyone not on your kits lynch.
Two posts at the end of d3. Renewed at the end of d4
That was a typo. I'm almost always on mobile but notice the grammar. "I was putting you on any town lists" meant to say "I wasn't putting you on any town lists".
Answer my question. You're sending me these mega posts but you aren't engaging the core argument, just with little details.
Am I scum or maf? Why?
It's not until saw finally started asking the same question last night that anyone is thinking about this.
You've yet to point out a single lie. The best you have is that I started shading you d3 and then focused on other shit d4... When I said muffin was 60% scum and you were 99%... that was this day phase, while my vote was on you.
Uhhh...
Stan wasn't town tho... why would maf defend town?
I've included the "if kits and i were maf" scenario, maybe more relevant for you. You'll notice I've never said mafia wouldn't defend their team. With lynches and ignites to worry about, I think maf wants to keep their team alive.
Now saw is asking the questions I've asked already about why.
I got lectured on wifom yesterday but any theory that involves me being scum is chalk full of it. It's digging deep to imagine explanations for why scum fep is purposefully making his life hard. Muffins actually has the best one: which is essentially that I'm dumb and thought lynching monkey would be easier than muffins or isaac.
So the last bit i want people to really think about is again that it is in mafias best interest for monkey to be alive tonight, whether she is maf or town.
oreomunsta
Banned
Hope you feel better Muffin, and that it's not the same thing from a few days ago
So my perspective is that fep is still likely town, but is now my second most town lean. Monkey being my first, but I haven't let go of the possibility of a GF monkey.
Fep is unlikely to be scum, and I think the kits situation would demonstrate that. Kits went out on an off day, so we will not know her flip yet until this upcoming day. For fep to do an about-face and tell us his intention with kits doesn't add up to me as scum activity, unless we could be certain kits was town, and then fep would pull the "I did a bad town gambit card". Too much unnecessary heat when it's not to any strategic advantage, unless this WIFOM was his goal. I don't think he's one of the scummies.
I did mention that fep was a good town lean for me, but no one apart from monkey is out of the realm of possibly being neutral. I'd have to leverage the same neutral argument I have for sawn against fep, because fep would be capable of playing non-neutral while dousing players at night. He could have also seen a possibility of CM and Trigger being PR's, and lined that up with some luck.
I feel though that there are more likely neutral candidates, though, so I still he him as town, just less so now.
His tunneling for monkey is something I get, but can't get behind in good conscience. I'm not throwing for a 20% chance we find one scum.
So my perspective is that fep is still likely town, but is now my second most town lean. Monkey being my first, but I haven't let go of the possibility of a GF monkey.
Fep is unlikely to be scum, and I think the kits situation would demonstrate that. Kits went out on an off day, so we will not know her flip yet until this upcoming day. For fep to do an about-face and tell us his intention with kits doesn't add up to me as scum activity, unless we could be certain kits was town, and then fep would pull the "I did a bad town gambit card". Too much unnecessary heat when it's not to any strategic advantage, unless this WIFOM was his goal. I don't think he's one of the scummies.
I did mention that fep was a good town lean for me, but no one apart from monkey is out of the realm of possibly being neutral. I'd have to leverage the same neutral argument I have for sawn against fep, because fep would be capable of playing non-neutral while dousing players at night. He could have also seen a possibility of CM and Trigger being PR's, and lined that up with some luck.
I feel though that there are more likely neutral candidates, though, so I still he him as town, just less so now.
His tunneling for monkey is something I get, but can't get behind in good conscience. I'm not throwing for a 20% chance we find one scum.
oreomunsta
Banned
Fep, if I get your argument right, are you saying that by keeping monkey alive, and that guaranteeing scum gets their NK, you are absolutely sure that monkey is scum?
If monkey was lynched, and flipped town, that's you on the line for that
If monkey was lynched, and flipped town, that's you on the line for that
flatearthpandas
Member
Looking at the numbers again, here's my biggest mistake. I've been operating with the idea of, even if I'm wrong and we ML monkey, it's better than MLing someone else. And this isn't wrong. But the difference is slight. This is why I unvoted at the end of the second numbers post.
Essentially, while we can survive an ML, we need to be very lucky to have a chance whether it is monkey or not.
Do I think Monkey is the godfather? Yes. If no one else does and she won't be voted, I have to relent though. Better to wifom it today than tomorrow but whatever.
I hope I can convince people my play, regardless of whether you like it or not, doesn't make sense as scum.
So we need other candidates. We have less than 24 hours. It would be better for us to hit mafia but anything is better than town.
Can anyone else make any cases either way? Why someone is scum or why someone is town?
Essentially, while we can survive an ML, we need to be very lucky to have a chance whether it is monkey or not.
Do I think Monkey is the godfather? Yes. If no one else does and she won't be voted, I have to relent though. Better to wifom it today than tomorrow but whatever.
I hope I can convince people my play, regardless of whether you like it or not, doesn't make sense as scum.
So we need other candidates. We have less than 24 hours. It would be better for us to hit mafia but anything is better than town.
Can anyone else make any cases either way? Why someone is scum or why someone is town?
flatearthpandas
Member
Not sure i understand the question. If she were to flip town, i would have been wrong. But i think the logic is simple here whether she is scum or not.
What is in mafias best interests?
1. Not being lynched.
2. Lynching the neutral
3. Not missing their nks
Mafia is not bussing while that neutral is alive unless the writing is on the wall. And without flips, even then it's not necessary. A crazy gambit to lynch mafia monkey is not in mafias interests at all.
If monkey is definitely not the neutral, her lynch is not in mafias best interests. Drawing the lynch to myself as mafia violates mafia interests for both 1 and 2 and doesn't serve any mafia interests.
Monkey dying in the day increases mafia chances of missing a nk. We can wifom on why they let her live yesterday, but this is just a fact. Town monkey alive at night is in mafia best interest.
Whatever she flips, it would make no sense for me to push so hard for monkey lynch as mafia.
hey_monkey
Banned
I took a much needed nap and will respond to developments in a minute but I said I found some earlier interesting stuff and wanted to post it so I'm gonna. So much earlier in teh game, LoC called out Stan and FEP for fake-fighting and called it a scumtell. I'm gonna link the posts, here and here, instead of quoting, because he used a lot of quotes. Extra interesting within that is that you also see kits joke-voting FEP and FEP reacting to it. I didn't put any stock into any of it at the time. Not sure anyone really did. But looking at what's going on now, it might be another piece worth exploring.
That was Day 2. LordofCastamere didn't vote for either of them, so it was a small part of the day, but he did die that night.
That was Day 2. LordofCastamere didn't vote for either of them, so it was a small part of the day, but he did die that night.
flatearthpandas
Member
I'm about to start work so I'll be out for a while.
Monkey, if you want to keep hammering me at least give an explanation for how my play today is in my best interests as scum.
Nin, isaac, would like to hear your thoughts as well. Even muffin. Does my play make sense as scum? Does the glove fit?
If no, let's talk targets. A
Monkey, if you want to keep hammering me at least give an explanation for how my play today is in my best interests as scum.
Nin, isaac, would like to hear your thoughts as well. Even muffin. Does my play make sense as scum? Does the glove fit?
If no, let's talk targets. A
hey_monkey
Banned
After this, I think I'm done. I'd vote isaac today because I do think there's potential there. Cases could be made for nin or oreo, but I'm less inclined; I've been iffy on oreo all game but he's the lowest of my potential not-town reads today. But I'm gonna say honestly, please just go ahead and kill me or FEP if no one's going to talk about anything else. If we can eat another mislynch, I will fucking fall on that sword. I am just tired at this point and we're not getting anywhere else. If FEP or I am scum - since it ain't both - even figuring that out doesn't win us the game but what else is happening?
Spinning these narratives and demanding I answer you over and over and over is killing discussion today. And it doesn't seem to be winning you any support for my lynch. So what are you doing?
early D4: starts with feeling good about Muffin, "not impressed" with me, "Monkey is godfather with the green check," "But really, all this staring at the votes really points out monkey. On every lynch except for stan. That's just bizarro world to me. Maybe green checks make you bold."
These d4 quotes are all while you're still saying kits is scum, before you switched to Muffin. I don't feel like continuing to reread. That last one is #1255.
If we're gonna mislynch someone, it might as well be me. Though I personally think I'd rather take the gamble on isaac - or you, at this point, but I can't tell how much of that is sheer annoyance, to be frank.
Do you have no other candidates?
For me, the lists look like this:
Possible scum: isaac, FEP, oreo
Possible neutral: FEP, oreo, nin
Not interested in lynching: Sawneeks, Muffin
isaac's town town rah rah rah and total lack of engagement even to the point of not voting is really something. nin's skirting everything and claiming uncertainty, which, sure, but we can't just sit on our hands. oreo looks better to me today but how much of that is because I like someone agreeing with me?
This is flatly untrue and repeating it doesn't make it true. Sawneeks did vote for kits; she's not on my list, though she did switch off. oreo was on the lynch, and is on my list. isaac didn't vote for anyone at all, which is most suspicious of all.
Spinning these narratives and demanding I answer you over and over and over is killing discussion today. And it doesn't seem to be winning you any support for my lynch. So what are you doing?
D3: "red flag" for me, "everyone who has even hinted about not lynching Stan is in the crosshairs," "we just don't need these people," "this is the most blatantly anti-town thing to happen in the entire game. There is no argument."
early D4: starts with feeling good about Muffin, "not impressed" with me, "Monkey is godfather with the green check," "But really, all this staring at the votes really points out monkey. On every lynch except for stan. That's just bizarro world to me. Maybe green checks make you bold."
These d4 quotes are all while you're still saying kits is scum, before you switched to Muffin. I don't feel like continuing to reread. That last one is #1255.
I've engaged it. You just don't like my answer. Saw didn't either. But I'm not trying to give palatable answers; I'm trying to be transparent in my thinking. I don't know if you're scum. You could be tunneling like crazy. You could be mafia trying to cover to to get rid of someone. You could well be neutral. I don't know because I can't figure your motivation for leaping down a rabbit hole but it's killing all other discussion.
Which could be one reason to see you as scum here. If scum wasn't kits, but you are, you could be trying to keep discussion off isaac, oreo, even nin. Anyone else. And it's very much up in the air right now as to what will happen with the vote. I'm almost always going to answer with long posts. It's easy to keep me engaged and focused on a thing. So if you want to talk about Muffin's theory, it's not that you're dumb - it's that I'm easy to bait.
If we're gonna mislynch someone, it might as well be me. Though I personally think I'd rather take the gamble on isaac - or you, at this point, but I can't tell how much of that is sheer annoyance, to be frank.
Do you have no other candidates?
For me, the lists look like this:
Possible scum: isaac, FEP, oreo
Possible neutral: FEP, oreo, nin
Not interested in lynching: Sawneeks, Muffin
isaac's town town rah rah rah and total lack of engagement even to the point of not voting is really something. nin's skirting everything and claiming uncertainty, which, sure, but we can't just sit on our hands. oreo looks better to me today but how much of that is because I like someone agreeing with me?
hey_monkey
Banned
omg brb hanging myself since you keep literally asking me to hammer at you
oreomunsta
Banned
Yeah, this is kinda hard with it being so quiet this game :/ to be honest, I don't feel like voting for either of you
At the moment, I'm leaning
Town: monkey, fep, sawn (these are in order of most Townie to least)
Scum: muffin, nin (in no particular order)
Neutral: isaac (my gut pick, despite my suspicion of sawn)
Vote: Nin1000
At the moment, I'm leaning
Town: monkey, fep, sawn (these are in order of most Townie to least)
Scum: muffin, nin (in no particular order)
Neutral: isaac (my gut pick, despite my suspicion of sawn)
Vote: Nin1000
hey_monkey
Banned
oreo, you flag Muffin as scum (I assume for tunneling/defending as you state above), but then vote for the person who he says is flying most under the radar. Does that impact your read of Muffin at all?
hey_monkey
Banned
oh, and since I'm going to bed and have a busy morning and may not be able to watch the thread, just in case:
unvote
burned forever by just mafia turbo
unvote
burned forever by just mafia turbo
oreomunsta
Banned
I think that with Muffin, despite his tunneling on me, we can work with him through the rest of the game much more easily than with Nin, who is consistently coming off as screwing with us all
Who do you think he was protecting, then?
FEP this is absolute bullshit and you know it. 'Scum hunting is based on results'? Really? When the 1 confirmed Anti-Town we have is due to a Town PR claiming and not from our own deduction you count that against 'results'?? So why aren't you also going after Muffin then?
So take Monkey out because she's either this super Godfather who has us all caught despite scumming hunting and putting in more work than most other players OR because we do Scum's dirty work for them so they have a higher chance at hitting a Neutral?
that doesn't sound like crazy BS to you?
Monkey mentions this too but I'm slowly starting to agree, better to deal with this now instead of tomorrow in potential LyLo.
I hope I'm not the only one who finds this terribly ironic considering you keep pushing for Monkey, the Green Checked player, to be lynched on the off-chance she's Scum. Not to mention you keep INSISTING that if she's Town she will be killed anyway for a safe Scum Kill so it's just safe to kill her anyway. Come on, FEP.
'if monkey is definitely not the neutral'? What, do you think Trigger lied?
also again the whole, 'doing this as mafia makes no sense!' push. You've mentioned it twice with the stuff I've quoted ALONE, probably more if I went and looked around the past few pages.
Quoted FEP above saying something similar and having thought on it some I'm inclined to agree. We can risk a potential mislynch today but after that we're going to be running close to empty on any luck we have and fucking up becomes a greater risk. If both parties here are Town, or some variation of Town/Neutral/Scum, it's doubtful any of them die tonight since it either throws shade on whoever lives or gets a set-up for a mislynch on a potential LyLo. I'd rather prefer to sleep on it before committing but I'm tempted to say we just resolve this now then let it run into tomorrow.
I also want to say these are some really good call-outs that Monkey pulled here. If FEP was that convinced on Monkey to shade her for that long, and that early on D4, there is zero reason for him to not switch earlier than saying he would have had Day End not been so near. Smells like BS to me.
flatearthpandas
Member
Not as convincing but I have brought it up. Of course it makes sense for neutral to try and lynch their scum targets. But not at the risk of dying themselves. Of course the same applies to town and I've done moderately poorly in that regard.
My best argument against a neutral accusation is yesterday. Doesn't make sense for neutral to stick their neck out for kits like that. Of course neutral would prefer we lynch scum but shouldn't be too bothered if we lynch town. As long as neutral can avoid being lynched, they have time to just scum hunt normally and burrow people they think are mafia.
And sure, we could wifom that I defended kits for townie non-neutral points but as neutral i wouldn't know her alignment. Maybe she flips scum and then i look suspicious.
Also, I suspected monkey at the end of d4. Why go through this whole dance today when, if I truly wanted her out of the game, I would just burrow her, try and hunt her partner during the day, and then ignite her?
Anyway, I'm going to bed and letting this go over in my head but I'll be here before Day End. I know a good amount of the players left are up when I'm sleeping so I have a question ( in addition to the others that were posted but not answered ) :
Do we deal with this whole FEP/Monkey argument now or hope Scum/Neutral kills either so we don't have to deal with it in a potential LyLo situation? If for/against, why?
night
Do we deal with this whole FEP/Monkey argument now or hope Scum/Neutral kills either so we don't have to deal with it in a potential LyLo situation? If for/against, why?
night
flatearthpandas
Member
Oh my, I'll have to get to the rest of that later. Break is over now.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
DAY 5 CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
hey_monkey (1) 3 more votes to majority
flatearthpandas 1501 1544
flatearthpandas 1544 1565
flatearthpandas 1632
nin1000 (1) 3 more votes to majority
oreomunsta 1673
oreomunsta (0):Muffin1611 1491 1662
isaacnukem (0):hey_monkey 1524 1534
flatearthpandas (0):hey_monkey 1631 1675
No active vote for Day 5: hey_monkey (has previously voted), isaacnukem, Muffin1611 (has previously voted), nin1000, Sawneeks
Day 5 Postcount: flatearthpandas 35, hey_monkey 40, isaacnukem 19, Muffin1611 42, nin1000 15, oreomunsta 12, Sawneeks 24
Day 5 ends:
Automated vote tally here
4 votes for majority
hey_monkey (1) 3 more votes to majority
flatearthpandas 1632
nin1000 (1) 3 more votes to majority
oreomunsta 1673
oreomunsta (0):
isaacnukem (0):
flatearthpandas (0):
No active vote for Day 5: hey_monkey (has previously voted), isaacnukem, Muffin1611 (has previously voted), nin1000, Sawneeks
Day 5 Postcount: flatearthpandas 35, hey_monkey 40, isaacnukem 19, Muffin1611 42, nin1000 15, oreomunsta 12, Sawneeks 24
Day 5 ends:
Automated vote tally here
4 votes for majority
hey_monkey
Banned
Woke up sick (><) so dunno how much sense I'll make but I'll be around. I blame Muffin, who infected me via the internet.
oreomunsta
Banned
No, you're right that it would be a weird scum ploy to push like this, but I don't find your argument convincing.
If monkey was town, then scum would be pleased to keep her alive, since we are all thinking she's our best shot at catching the Godfather right now. Meanwhile, scum has a slightly smaller pool to now try to get the neutral.
How does monkey dying in the day increase the chances of scum missing the NK? I'm not following that. If you already laid it out in a post, you can quote it and I'll go over it again
oreomunsta
Banned
Feel better monkey! Dark Mafia is making Hollows of us all :0c
hey_monkey
Banned
I think the idea that FEP is forwarding is:
Lynch me today, either catch scum or cull a town - leaving 1-2 scum alive out of six. One of those options for the NK is the neutral. Raw probably is that if we mislynch a town, they have a higher chance of hitting the neutral. But if I'm alive, FEP swears this is they night they will NK me for sure since they will know I'm not the neutral.
Which seems like a lot of ifs and speculations predicated largely on us lynching a townie today, and it's probably my biggest scum-gut feeling on FEP right now. If we were on you for focusing on numbers, FEP using numbers to justify lynching a townie at endgame should be a screaming red flag.
Unless I'm the godfather. Which, sorry, am not. But it's an argument that will linger, I expect. There's just nothing I can do about it.
flatearthpandas
Member
I count it against results when we're talking about someone who wasn't on even the easiest scum lynch imaginable.
And it is about results. That's the difference between scum hunting and just posturing. You ought to know that because I think that's what makes you such a great scum player.
Super godfather? Lol. Yes, what you wrote sounds like crazy bs. But that's not my position. How you cut through wifom is by making a decision. You've decided she's town and I've decided she's the godfather.
Yes, it is better to deal with it now. But either way the mislynch is basically fatal. Very small chances of a town win.
Green checked player whose done what exactly? "Scum hunt." Where? What has that accomplished? Four pushing five mislynches and a scum defense? Good job, monkey. You get an F for effort if you're town and the rest of take an L.
The fuck? This is some straight up scum bullshit, saw. In what fucking world is that an interpretation? Christ.
No shit. That's your key for not throwing the game tonight. But I guess feelings are fine too.
Just repetitive but we're already fresh out of luck. If you want to risk a mislynch you ought to to it sensibly and even that likely ends in disaster. Numbers are on this page.
No they aren't. Since when do you have to be convinced to throw shade? Monkey's been shading her fucking self since d4. Guess it's pretty scummy she hasn't self voted yet.
hey_monkey
Banned
So if responding calmly to accusations a townie tell, what do we call flatearthpandas' emotional hollering throughout this day phase? Direct insults at me and anyone who doesn't agree with him is bringing on a loss. Much calm. Very stoic.
I don't know what's going to happen between now and day end, but I'm going to take a nap. To reiterate:
possibilities for scum: FEP, isaac
FEP: is doing something. May be a tunneling townie. I see a lot of projection, possible scum tells, and certainly not reacting per his own scum/not-scum rubric. Part of me wonders if it's as simple as a scumFEP making some shaky decisions on kitsune and trying to cover by making nows and leaning on his townie cred. That could explain the focus - but it's about equal odds with tunneling townie. Regardless, unless he does something new, I'm not seeing the point of engaging him further this day phase.
isaacnukem: nonentity today. Behavior inconsistent with his claimed pro-town stances. Talked about this earlier. Asked him directly, since he speculated on his potential approach as neutral, about what would happen if he rolled scum. He's not weighing in on that or anything else; he's just absent.
possibilities for neutral: FEP, again; nin1000; oreo
Others have gone more in depth on FEP as neutral. I'm tired. I don't feel like doing it again.
nin1000: I put forth the idea of a neutral nin earlier as a possible explanation for aggression. His willingness to sit out the day phase here could be telling. I was thinking, too, about that turbo - if he'd already burrowed Trigger and CM, the turbo before CM talked more makes sense. Go ahead and end the day, Stan dies, he blows up two others, the NK isn't gonna be on one of his targets that night, since a still-alive doctor would protect the cop-claimed Trigger and scum wouldn't take the risk. So thinking back, I think nin is a good candidate for neutral.
oreomunsta: has been pretty engaged today. If neutral, unlikely he has any of the top candidates burrowed. If he's neutral, I expect he'll light up Muffin tonight, since Muffin is his scumread but he's voting nin. A neutral would vote someone else and hope to burn a scum at this point, I think.
Those are my cases. I will vote in the last hour before the day phase ends because I want to lie in bed and think on it. I feel more strongly about my neutral guesses because I think we have more clues there and am uncertain on scum picks.
I don't know what's going to happen between now and day end, but I'm going to take a nap. To reiterate:
possibilities for scum: FEP, isaac
FEP: is doing something. May be a tunneling townie. I see a lot of projection, possible scum tells, and certainly not reacting per his own scum/not-scum rubric. Part of me wonders if it's as simple as a scumFEP making some shaky decisions on kitsune and trying to cover by making nows and leaning on his townie cred. That could explain the focus - but it's about equal odds with tunneling townie. Regardless, unless he does something new, I'm not seeing the point of engaging him further this day phase.
isaacnukem: nonentity today. Behavior inconsistent with his claimed pro-town stances. Talked about this earlier. Asked him directly, since he speculated on his potential approach as neutral, about what would happen if he rolled scum. He's not weighing in on that or anything else; he's just absent.
possibilities for neutral: FEP, again; nin1000; oreo
Others have gone more in depth on FEP as neutral. I'm tired. I don't feel like doing it again.
nin1000: I put forth the idea of a neutral nin earlier as a possible explanation for aggression. His willingness to sit out the day phase here could be telling. I was thinking, too, about that turbo - if he'd already burrowed Trigger and CM, the turbo before CM talked more makes sense. Go ahead and end the day, Stan dies, he blows up two others, the NK isn't gonna be on one of his targets that night, since a still-alive doctor would protect the cop-claimed Trigger and scum wouldn't take the risk. So thinking back, I think nin is a good candidate for neutral.
oreomunsta: has been pretty engaged today. If neutral, unlikely he has any of the top candidates burrowed. If he's neutral, I expect he'll light up Muffin tonight, since Muffin is his scumread but he's voting nin. A neutral would vote someone else and hope to burn a scum at this point, I think.
Those are my cases. I will vote in the last hour before the day phase ends because I want to lie in bed and think on it. I feel more strongly about my neutral guesses because I think we have more clues there and am uncertain on scum picks.
flatearthpandas
Member
Basically. Even if we lynch the neutral, mafia won't know until tomorrow. Town monkey is 100% nk. If they choose not to kill her, they increases their odds of a miss because she is not in the pool of eligible players.
I'm not justifying a town lynch. I specifically said today that a mislynch on you is still fucking dangerous, albeit slightly less dangerous than one on anyone else.
This information
1) casts doubt as to why scum didn't kill you last night. They opted for a 20% chance to miss instead when they killed verelios immediately.
2) shows my desire for you lynch is not coming from a mafia perspective.
You are a get out of jail free card for mafia whenever they actually get nervous about their odds. Why would they go out of their way to try and lynch you the way I did?
You and saw convincing yourselves that there is a scum player who purposefully threw away a near universal town read to try and lynch his own get out of jail free card is ridiculous.
You're poring through old posts trying to tie LoC's nk to a suspicion he had about me and Stan. In this narrative it was town to defend Stan and scummy to shade you for doing it. In this universe it is scummy to work directly against scum's best interests. It is scummy to actually defend people who are scum. You're in bizarro world.
I voted Stan the second he was red checked. I was the one who yelled at kits for the nin vote and told her she wasn't paying attention. You know, the behavior that fueled your lynch on her. I warned to the town that the role allowed him to joke claim and mass claim and that he needed to be killed when he eventually did it.
And your gotcha post about being so certain about you for saying you raised a red flag and then voting kits instead...
Kits is included in that.
I voted her the next day, following this exact logic. This was my last post of d3.
Back to the drawing board, monkey.
Saw and everyone else, you would do well to reread the end of d3. Watch the gymnastics on display trying to argue the CM lynch. Watch how she talks to him. Watch in post 975 when monkey used numbers to try and talk us out of the stan lynch even before Trigger claims. Watch as I respond in 979 with numbers arguing CMs actions are not in mafias best interests. Watch post 875 when we get the old classic whoops we sure messed up the d2 lynch even though we didn't even have his flip yet and that was her lynch train!!
hey_monkey
Banned
None of it is gotcha. None of it is certainty. These are your modes, not mine.
flatearthpandas
Member
Holy shit.
I won't be voting anyone but monkey. D3 reread. 1% doubt erased.
100% scum.
I'll be here to answer questions as long as I can stay awake. No more megaposts from me for the rest of the game, i promise.
I won't be voting anyone but monkey. D3 reread. 1% doubt erased.
100% scum.
I'll be here to answer questions as long as I can stay awake. No more megaposts from me for the rest of the game, i promise.
flatearthpandas
Member
Had two typo gotchas today already.
Clearly this should be "town" in this context. Referring to kits, should probably have been "people who you think are town" but what can you do. Wrong word, but I'll let the sentence structure.
Muffin1611
Banned
Just got up at 5pm again after laying sick in bed for hours reading stuff. Glorious.
Sorry for making you sick, monkey
I'm gonna catch up soon, one stupid thought I had just know: Did anybody entertain the possibility that kits was the neutral?
Sorry for making you sick, monkey
I'm gonna catch up soon, one stupid thought I had just know: Did anybody entertain the possibility that kits was the neutral?
flatearthpandas
Member
Just got up at 5pm again after laying sick in bed for hours reading stuff. Glorious.
Sorry for making you sick, monkey
I'm gonna catch up soon, one stupid thought I had just know: Did anybody entertain the possibility that kits was the neutral?
Hope you feel better, muffins. Sorry not to get that in earlier. Monkey, you too.
As far as Kits being the neutral, no one has any way of knowing. Indeed, even mafia should be operating as if the neutral is still alive tonight, whether it was kits or whoever gets lynched today.
If it was kits, only mafia will know for sure tomorrow. Of course, we'll all know if there is an ignite tonight. But without knowing, I think it's safest to just assume all scum are still alive until we see the even day check-in.
oreomunsta
Banned
Just got up at 5pm again after laying sick in bed for hours reading stuff. Glorious.
Sorry for making you sick, monkey
I'm gonna catch up soon, one stupid thought I had just know: Did anybody entertain the possibility that kits was the neutral?
Not really, and neither did we think rac might have been, but it might be safer to expect the worst case scenario until we get our anti town count in
oreomunsta
Banned
Oh, okay, guess I should have read fep's post before making my own lol
flatearthpandas
Member
Well rac definitely wasn't, he got nk'd
Muffin1611
Banned
That feeling when you have to cook, learn for an exam and try to think about Mafia at the same time
hey_monkey
Banned
Just got up at 5pm again after laying sick in bed for hours reading stuff. Glorious.
Sorry for making you sick, monkey
I'm gonna catch up soon, one stupid thought I had just know: Did anybody entertain the possibility that kits was the neutral?
we are a sad and tragic pair. I had to do a meeting via google hangouts and I'm pretty sure I just sounded OVER IT
It occurred to me that she could be but for me it would just move nin1000 and oreo up in potential contention based on the reasons I had re: their votes and patterns, though it would potentially reduce my suspicion on oreo, as I could more easily buy him as neutral than scum.
Muffin1611
Banned
Tbh I'm sitting between a FEP and an oreo vote right now
But I would also kinda like to vote Nin right now out of spite of him not showing
Help
But I would also kinda like to vote Nin right now out of spite of him not showing
Help