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Sales Age: The OFFICIAL Dragon Quest Swords Sales Prediction Topic

It seems fitting that about a year ago, I made this exact same topic for a different SquareEnix title coming out on a Nintendo system: Final Fantasy III for the Nintendo DS. My stance was that people were overestimating what FFIII would be able to do SW wise and selling HW, so I decided to call the MC thread posters out to put their predictions in one topic to see who's right.

Now here we are, another year and Square Enix is once again looked upon to show whether 3rd parties can succeed on another Nintendo system that's appealing to out of the norm audiences. Like FFIII on the DS, some posters are believing in ginormous sales for the title in the first week alone (500k and up, unheard of) due to the Dragon Quest name and that it was released as a TV-adapter videogame earlier on to sell 500k itself.

My stance? It will do well, but not as much as people are touting it would, claiming it will be a million seller for the Wii in Japan 100% guranteed. While it is DQ, it's a spinoff in my eyes, and the amrket is just not there to pick up this title unless lapsed/new gamers are finally going to try out the new "family-friendly" approach of the title, coupled with the appealing Nintendo Wii.

With about a week until we get the info of it's release data, let's get started on predictions yes?

-Predict the first week sales of the title (sales that Media Create will show on Wednesday posting day)
- Predict the first month sales of the title (FOUR WEEKS of MC or Famitsu data added up since it's release)
- Predict it's LTD by the end of the year 2007 in Japan
- Predict it's LTD after one year of release (July 12th 2008 I think)
EDIT: You know what, throw in a second week sales prediction while you're taking the time.

*predictions can be in ranges of up to 20k. So you can't say it'll sell 100k - 150k it's first week. Must be 100k - 120k or 130k - 150k. 20k limit
* Exception to the rule is one year after release. You can give a less than greater than range of 50k

My predictions:

First week: 108 - 120k
Second Week: 45-60k
First Month: 185 - 200k
LTD 2007: 280 - 300k
One Year: 350k < DQS LTD < 400k

Your Predictions:

: speedpop: 200k first week, LTD 2007: 1 million easily

For nostalgic purposes, here's a link to the original prediction topic of FFIII: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=3735256#post3735256
 

speedpop

Has problems recognising girls
I'm guessing 200K for the first week. It'll eventually do the marathon and easily hit over 1M before the end of the year.
 
sadgeorgemichael.gif


Threads like these make George Michael sad... :(
 

cw_sasuke

If all DLC came tied to $13 figurines, I'd consider all DLC to be free
First week: 300-320K
First Month: 600 K
LTD 2007: 750 K
DQS LTD 850K
 

Linkup

Member
LanceStern said:
My stance? It will do well, but not as much as people are touting it would, claiming it will be a million seller for the Wii in Japan 100% guaranteed. While it is DQ, it's a spinoff in my eyes, and the market is just not there to pick up this title unless lapsed/new gamers are finally going to try out the new "family-friendly" approach of the title, coupled with the appealing Nintendo Wii.

I don't know. I thought that was exactly the type of people that owned the wii in japan and if your claim it's that kind of title then we have a match plus the DQ brand attached to it.

First week: 300 - 320k
First Month: 200 - 220k (total 500 - 520k)
LTD 2007: 200 - 220k (total 700 - 720k)
One Year: 250k < DQS LTD < 300k (total 850k < DQS LTD < 900k)

There fixed my numbers
 
RiskyChris said:
This thread is a little unnecessary -- it'll sell whatever it ships.

Are you willing to take 30 seconds to put that in ink (or typed letters in this case). So that when it does not (or maybe even does) sell whatever it ships the 1st week, 2nd week, 1st month and end of the year, we may look back and see what you said?

Come on... what's it going to cost you?
 
LanceStern said:
Are you willing to take 30 seconds to put that in ink (or typed letters in this case). So that when it does not (or maybe even does) sell whatever it ships the 1st week, 2nd week, 1st month and end of the year, we may look back and see what you said?

Come on... what's it going to cost you?

I haven't been following the shipments, but:
1st week: whatever the shipment is
Lifetime: 1.5M
 

E-phonk

Banned
cw_sasuke said:
First week: 300-320K
First Month: 600 K
LTD 2007: 750 K
DQS LTD 850K
Yeah, this is also what I was thinking. 700k-ish by the end of the year, and somewhere between 850k-900k lifetime.
 

Stop It

Perfectly able to grasp the inherent value of the fishing game.
First week: 200 -300k dependent on first shipment
Second Week: 100 - 125k
First Month: 400 - 500k
LTD 2007: 850 - 950k
One Year: 1.2mil < DQS LTD < 1.25mil
 

donny2112

Member
As has been pointed out in Media-Create topics, this game sold over 500K as a standalone attachment with a sword that you connect to your TV. First week shipment is reported to be ~350K. That will sell out within seven days (4 days in the weekly reporting period + 3 days in the next), so they better have a second shipment ready. Retailers are already requesting more stock based on consumer demand. DQ:Swords is going to outsell Zelda within a few weeks.

Also, unlike the FFIII sales catastrophe, there is no super heavy-hitter (Pokemon) coming out 1 month after DQ:Swords to truncate its sales.

First Week: 325K
Second Week: 50K
First Month: 550K
LTD: 900K

If it has a BEST PRICE re-release, add 200K to that total.
 

apujanata

Member
First week: 325k (90-95% of 350K first shipment)
First month: 580k (assuming big and speedy second shipment)
End of year: 900k (up to Dec 31, 2007)
Lifetime: 1.3 million

titiklabingapat said:
Zelda TP am cry.
Don't worry. Zelda : PH to the rescue.
 

schuelma

Wastes hours checking old Famitsu software data, but that's why we love him.
First week: 350K (I'm going sell out baby)

First month: 650K

LTD 07- 1.2M

One Year- 1.5M



Yes...I'm being wildly optimistic. I'll blame Vinnk if i'm wrong.
 

apujanata

Member
Are you really serious with your prediction, LanceStern ?

If you are serious, I believe you are way too pessimistic.
Only 350K max for DQ:S one year after release ?
 

P90

Member
My prediction is many truckloads of DQ:S will be sold in the first week. How's that for living on the edge?
 
FFS

1. DQM does well enough as a spin-off, and because it's an appealing concept.

2. slashing at classic DQ baddies is an appealing concept. Hell, might even get non-gamers involved as well!
 

Vinnk

Member
Things I said in the MC thread (where this discussion should likely be taking place):

5. The advertising blitz for Dragon Quest Swords has started. There are posters up at all stores and special kiosks. The level of advertising is less than a main series DQ or Final Fantasy game (of course) but higher than I ever recall seeing for a spin-off. Here is the kiosk at Wanpaku.

6. Hiro at Famicom Dojo isn’t taking pre-orders for Dragon Quest Swords because he doesn't think he will be able to get any copies at launch. Since his store is small he is low on the pecking order for getting new games. And it seems that retailer demand is greater than supply. If that translates into actual buyer demand, then this game could be huge.


Some of my students were talking about skipping club activities on Thrusday to pick up Dragon Quest: Swords before it sells out. Feel the storm.. it's coming...





..maybe

This morning I was running late and had to buy my breakfast at a convenience store. While I was paying I heard some familiar music. I then saw that a trailer for Dragon Quest: Swords was playing on the little screen of the cash register. It seems the convenience stores will also be selling this game. That in itself is not uncommon, there is a small game selection at most stores but they only pick the titles that are believed to be sure fire hits (the final fantasy’s and stuff) so this is just a bit more good news for the potential of a third party game selling on the Wii. We will find out soon if all this hype is paying off..

A lot of people seem to want it. But do all those people have the Wii systems yet? A lot of hardcore gamers waited to buy the Wii until there were titles like this for it. But with the limited supplies of the system, they might not be able to buy this game and a system. Or maybe Nintendo has been hording Wii's. Either way, this is going to be interesting.

Here are my predictions and keep in mind that this is all assuming that Square-enix can get new copies out soon after the first shipment. In other words before used copies start appearing. If they stall on getting this game restocked, I can see the title selling less than 500k.

First week: Whatever they ship
Second Week: Whatever they ship
First Month: 500k (if they can make that many)
2007 LTD: 750k (I think it will be very front loaded)*
One year LTD: 850k*

*If Nintendo can get more new Wii systems out before this game appears on the used racks or if in the future it gets a lower priced re-release, I can see this game becoming Wii's first third party million seller.
 
I'd like to revise one year LTD to 350k < DQMS < 400k. For safety purposes.

But previous sales of Wii third party titles has indeed made those my real, nonjoking predictions sir apujanata
 

apujanata

Member
LanceStern said:
I'd like to revise one year LTD to 350k < DQMS < 400k. For safety purposes.

But previous sales of Wii third party titles has indeed made those my real, nonjoking predictions sir apujanata

Have you ever consider the possibility of DQ:S having the level of success of, say, FFIII ? I think many people thought FFIII will never get to 1 Million, even though it is released on DS.
 
apujanata said:
Have you ever consider the possibility of DQ:S having the level of success of, say, FFIII ? I think many people thought FFIII will never get to 1 Million, even though it is released on DS.

It took almsot a year for it to reach 1 million.

At the same time, people guaranteed milion-seller status for Yoshi's Island DS and Observation Training, and they've leveled off.

I hold to my prediction, but I'd like to make note that Sinobi and Gamefront have stated DQS has sold 200,000 it's first day.

May the laugher start
 
LanceStern said:
It took almsot a year for it to reach 1 million.

At the same time, people guaranteed milion-seller status for Yoshi's Island DS and Observation Training, and they've leveled off.

I hold to my prediction, but I'd like to make note that Sinobi and Gamefront have stated DQS has sold 200,000 it's first day.

May the laugher start
It's okay, Lance. Christopher wins the dunce cap this time. Let me just go get it for him from...oh, nevermind, he already has it.
 
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