The initial results are in..and they are not good. The UK sales are a disaster, as you can tell from the weekly headlines. NPD sales are not good- December barely saw an increase, and is well behind the Wii 2006 numbers even with much greater supply. (460k December, 890K overall) Wii U actually sold less than PS3 December 2006! Only in Japan is Wii U doing *ok* (700K sales or so), but that will surely not last with the horrid lineup that region has for the next 3 months or so.
EDIT- Nintendo's internal forecast calls for 5.5 million Wii U's shipped by the end of March. Realistically they have probably sold through 2.2-2.4 million units and sales will drastically slow down in Jan-March. Bottom line is they are not going to make their own forecast.
So what happened?
In this thread I would like to try and calmly discuss A- what went wrong with the Wii U launch and B- what can Nintendo do about it.
I'm not that interested in power discussions- just because it has been done to death and that isn't something Nintendo can now change. I'm more interested in what I view as a number of completely self inflicted wounds that really defy explanation. Is Nintendo incompetent? Arrogant? Do they not understand the Western market? I'm mostly ignoring Japan because I think Nintendo is still in decent shape there.
So here it goes
Major Factors:
Software- Duh. 3rd party lineup was nothing special, but the real miscalculation was having NSMB U as the big tentpole game. I see the logic- I imagine Nintendo sat around a room, looked at the list of top selling Wii games, saw NSMB Wii at the top of the list and said "ahah! we can have that ready for launch" Makes sense, but I think the reality is NSMB U, no matter how good of a game it really is, does *nothing* to sell the Wii U as a new gaming platform. No new mechanics, not a type of game to push the system graphically, and the 3rd version of the series in 3 years and 2nd in 6 months. I think Twilight Princess did a much better job at drumming up excitement and hype with the core gamer early adopter crowd- which I think is often overlooked when discussing the Wii's insane launch. I for one got this wrong- I looked at the numbers and agreed that this was system selling software. I don't think it really was.
NintendoLand suffers from not being Wii Sports- as a game I actually think it is very good and as a long term goal of selling Nintendo franchises, I think it could succeed. But it undeniably lacks the simple appeal of Wii Sports.
Neither game wows visually and neither game at first glance really shows off the controller.
Marketing- Uhh yeah. I got this one wrong again- I did not think confusion would be that big of a factor but I think it clearly was. Wii U owners- complete this thought- when describing the system to other people, what do you say? What do you call it? What game do you discuss? Other than physically forcing people to play NintendoLand, I think it is really difficult to even verbally explain what the Wii U is. Another name would not have completely solved the problem, but I think it would have made the marketing job easier.
Another factor, harder to quantify but it certainly seems to be the case, is sheer quantity of advertising. The hype machine never seemed to get going and when you compare the advertising to what Microsoft is going to do..I'm sure it will look even worse.
Price- I don't think this is a huge huge factor because the Premium set is the more popular SKU and I think $350 with a game isn't awful, but when your predecessor with the same name is $100 and your competitor systems are cheaper and with amazing game libraries, this still impacts the numbers I think.
Lack of a compelling vision/future release schedule- Probably the hardest to quantify and the factor veering into fanboy wishlist territory, but I do think part of the reason for a lack of hype among the earlier adopters is absolutely Nintendo's silence on post Spring 2013 titles. You rarely buy a system for the games coming out right away- you buy the system for what is coming. If Nintendo had shown 3D Mario, Retro's game, and a Smash teaser (aka 2006 E3) I do think there would be a lot more excitement about the system. And you might actually have a game that genuinely looks good and is a fully realized Nintendo HD title.
Insular development?- I don't know how to phrase this without causing offense, but I do think that right now Nintendo really is struggling to understand the Western market and Western developers. Iwata's comments last year raised my eyebrows- it was something like "well we won't have the same problems with 3rd parties because now we are in HD and porting will be easier." It really made me think he had no idea of PC development and what his competitors were planning. Just look at the Wii U design- I am convinced it was designed solely to combat Japan's shrinking console market by trying to make a sort of handheld hybrid. This factor is more speculative and a lot of me just throwing things at the wall, but I really believe Nintendo's continued disinterest in specs is causing a massive disconnect with Western developers, and in turn, the Western market.
Minor Factors
Wii legacy sales- A lot of this could be solved with marketing, but in contrast to 2006 you have a similarly named system still selling ok and taking away *some* sales in my opinion. Not a lot, but some.
3rd party support/poor ports- This will be a bigger issue in the future, but for launch purposes I think sales were always going to live or die based on Nintendo's output. And CoD and AC3 IMO actually represented a somewhat decent launch lineup.
What can Nintendo do about it? I'm talking about realistic things Nintendo can do to at least somewhat recover.
Software- announcements for summer 2013 and beyond.
This should be obvious, right? It is going to be hard to break through the next gen clutter at E3, but I think a really impressive looking 3D Mario or Smash teaser could break through. I would think this would be a no brainer, but I've thought a lot of things were no brainers and they didn't happen.
Price- Another pretty obvious one. I suspect they will have no choice but to phase out the Basic and sell the Premium at $300. I think that would get closer to the sweet spot.
Marketing- Again, obvious. Too late to change the name, but their initial US campaign ended up being completely forgettable.
3rd party relationships- Frankly I suspect Western development is already a lost cause. Nintendo could not get major 3rd party support when the Wii was sold out for 2 years- it sure as hell isn't going to get it with these hardware and software sales. The only chance I think Nintendo has is to just completely get in bed with Japanese 3rd parties. I think this stands a better chance at success than courting Western developers- Nintendo generally has better relationships with Japanese 3rd parties, Microsoft is irrelevant in the Japanese market, and Sony has plenty of issues in Japan as well and will be starting off at least a year late. On the other hand, publishers like SE and Capcom who are still chasing the Western market...
Let me be clear- even good Japanese support isn't going to be enough to really succeed worldwide- but it could at least give the appearance of a healthy ecosystem with a steady stream of games.
The Future?
So where does that leave Wii U overall? I think some things can be fixed. Marketing can always be changed. The early start leaves room for price drops. And one minor positive I see is that the decent Wii holiday sales tells me the Wii name still resonates in the West- which could be a positive if/when Wii U gets to a better price.
But frankly, I think the *best case* scenario right now is a 3DS-lite situation where hardware sales are no more than decent in US/PAL, solid in Japan, and where the vast majority of 3rd party games come from Japanese companies. If Sony and moreso Microsoft execute their launch well, I think Nintendo is in major major trouble in US/PAL regions. Japan I am still relatively bullish on Wii U succeeding, but even in that region you can foresee some weak sales for the first half of this year.
Thoughts? Is this too optimistic? Am I jumping the gun?
EDIT- Nintendo's internal forecast calls for 5.5 million Wii U's shipped by the end of March. Realistically they have probably sold through 2.2-2.4 million units and sales will drastically slow down in Jan-March. Bottom line is they are not going to make their own forecast.
So what happened?
In this thread I would like to try and calmly discuss A- what went wrong with the Wii U launch and B- what can Nintendo do about it.
I'm not that interested in power discussions- just because it has been done to death and that isn't something Nintendo can now change. I'm more interested in what I view as a number of completely self inflicted wounds that really defy explanation. Is Nintendo incompetent? Arrogant? Do they not understand the Western market? I'm mostly ignoring Japan because I think Nintendo is still in decent shape there.
So here it goes
Major Factors:
Software- Duh. 3rd party lineup was nothing special, but the real miscalculation was having NSMB U as the big tentpole game. I see the logic- I imagine Nintendo sat around a room, looked at the list of top selling Wii games, saw NSMB Wii at the top of the list and said "ahah! we can have that ready for launch" Makes sense, but I think the reality is NSMB U, no matter how good of a game it really is, does *nothing* to sell the Wii U as a new gaming platform. No new mechanics, not a type of game to push the system graphically, and the 3rd version of the series in 3 years and 2nd in 6 months. I think Twilight Princess did a much better job at drumming up excitement and hype with the core gamer early adopter crowd- which I think is often overlooked when discussing the Wii's insane launch. I for one got this wrong- I looked at the numbers and agreed that this was system selling software. I don't think it really was.
NintendoLand suffers from not being Wii Sports- as a game I actually think it is very good and as a long term goal of selling Nintendo franchises, I think it could succeed. But it undeniably lacks the simple appeal of Wii Sports.
Neither game wows visually and neither game at first glance really shows off the controller.
Marketing- Uhh yeah. I got this one wrong again- I did not think confusion would be that big of a factor but I think it clearly was. Wii U owners- complete this thought- when describing the system to other people, what do you say? What do you call it? What game do you discuss? Other than physically forcing people to play NintendoLand, I think it is really difficult to even verbally explain what the Wii U is. Another name would not have completely solved the problem, but I think it would have made the marketing job easier.
Another factor, harder to quantify but it certainly seems to be the case, is sheer quantity of advertising. The hype machine never seemed to get going and when you compare the advertising to what Microsoft is going to do..I'm sure it will look even worse.
Price- I don't think this is a huge huge factor because the Premium set is the more popular SKU and I think $350 with a game isn't awful, but when your predecessor with the same name is $100 and your competitor systems are cheaper and with amazing game libraries, this still impacts the numbers I think.
Lack of a compelling vision/future release schedule- Probably the hardest to quantify and the factor veering into fanboy wishlist territory, but I do think part of the reason for a lack of hype among the earlier adopters is absolutely Nintendo's silence on post Spring 2013 titles. You rarely buy a system for the games coming out right away- you buy the system for what is coming. If Nintendo had shown 3D Mario, Retro's game, and a Smash teaser (aka 2006 E3) I do think there would be a lot more excitement about the system. And you might actually have a game that genuinely looks good and is a fully realized Nintendo HD title.
Insular development?- I don't know how to phrase this without causing offense, but I do think that right now Nintendo really is struggling to understand the Western market and Western developers. Iwata's comments last year raised my eyebrows- it was something like "well we won't have the same problems with 3rd parties because now we are in HD and porting will be easier." It really made me think he had no idea of PC development and what his competitors were planning. Just look at the Wii U design- I am convinced it was designed solely to combat Japan's shrinking console market by trying to make a sort of handheld hybrid. This factor is more speculative and a lot of me just throwing things at the wall, but I really believe Nintendo's continued disinterest in specs is causing a massive disconnect with Western developers, and in turn, the Western market.
Minor Factors
Wii legacy sales- A lot of this could be solved with marketing, but in contrast to 2006 you have a similarly named system still selling ok and taking away *some* sales in my opinion. Not a lot, but some.
3rd party support/poor ports- This will be a bigger issue in the future, but for launch purposes I think sales were always going to live or die based on Nintendo's output. And CoD and AC3 IMO actually represented a somewhat decent launch lineup.
What can Nintendo do about it? I'm talking about realistic things Nintendo can do to at least somewhat recover.
Software- announcements for summer 2013 and beyond.
This should be obvious, right? It is going to be hard to break through the next gen clutter at E3, but I think a really impressive looking 3D Mario or Smash teaser could break through. I would think this would be a no brainer, but I've thought a lot of things were no brainers and they didn't happen.
Price- Another pretty obvious one. I suspect they will have no choice but to phase out the Basic and sell the Premium at $300. I think that would get closer to the sweet spot.
Marketing- Again, obvious. Too late to change the name, but their initial US campaign ended up being completely forgettable.
3rd party relationships- Frankly I suspect Western development is already a lost cause. Nintendo could not get major 3rd party support when the Wii was sold out for 2 years- it sure as hell isn't going to get it with these hardware and software sales. The only chance I think Nintendo has is to just completely get in bed with Japanese 3rd parties. I think this stands a better chance at success than courting Western developers- Nintendo generally has better relationships with Japanese 3rd parties, Microsoft is irrelevant in the Japanese market, and Sony has plenty of issues in Japan as well and will be starting off at least a year late. On the other hand, publishers like SE and Capcom who are still chasing the Western market...
Let me be clear- even good Japanese support isn't going to be enough to really succeed worldwide- but it could at least give the appearance of a healthy ecosystem with a steady stream of games.
The Future?
So where does that leave Wii U overall? I think some things can be fixed. Marketing can always be changed. The early start leaves room for price drops. And one minor positive I see is that the decent Wii holiday sales tells me the Wii name still resonates in the West- which could be a positive if/when Wii U gets to a better price.
But frankly, I think the *best case* scenario right now is a 3DS-lite situation where hardware sales are no more than decent in US/PAL, solid in Japan, and where the vast majority of 3rd party games come from Japanese companies. If Sony and moreso Microsoft execute their launch well, I think Nintendo is in major major trouble in US/PAL regions. Japan I am still relatively bullish on Wii U succeeding, but even in that region you can foresee some weak sales for the first half of this year.
Thoughts? Is this too optimistic? Am I jumping the gun?
