Support NeoGAF

[jeremy1456]

I'm not getting my hopes up but I would think the PS4 could do at least Wii U launch numbers. Think it has a stronger lineup to launch with

Its big games aren't exclusives, and Nintendo launched their system with a release from a franchise in which each release surpasses at least 1 million in sales.

PS4 doesn't have a single title that can compare to that. Then you've also got the MH3 port, and Nintendo Land (which I personally expected to do significantly better).

The PS4 launch lineup is decidedly weaker than that of the Wii U.

 

[jackissocool]

Is Japan the last territory to launch?

It's the last major territory, there are some smaller countries around the world where it has yet to launch.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Its big games aren't exclusives, and Nintendo launched their system with a release from a franchise in which each release surpasses at least 1 million in sales.

PS4 doesn't have a single title that can compare to that. Then you've also got the MH3 port, and Nintendo Land (which I personally expected to do significantly better).

The PS4 launch lineup is decidedly weaker than that of the Wii U.

While you could certainly be correct as I would never admit to knowing Japanese gamers tastes, the PS4 has been out 3 months and likely has bigger library then when the Wii U launched. While multiplats are less compelling they seem to be selling the PS4 everywhere else quite well.

Is the Wikipedia page correct? Wii U launched in Japan with 11 games available?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Wii_U_games

 

[anexanhume]

what's the hype like on Japanese forums?

Wii U vs. PS4 search interest in Japan since 2011:

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Wii U, PS4&geo=JP&date=1/2011 38m&cmpt=q

Interesting because you can see PS4 peak around E3, TGS and those types of events but the Wii U just peaks at launch and then fades out. It ramps up again for the holidays and then flatlines again. Averages are near same despite Wii U being out for a year longer.

If you want a laugh, add Xbox One.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Wii U vs. PS4 search interest in Japan since 2011:

Interesting because you can see PS4 peak around E3, TGS and those types of events but the Wii U just peaks at launch and then fades out. It ramps up again for the holidays and then flatlines again.

If you want a laugh, add Xbox One.

All right I broke google

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Nintendo, Playstation, Xbox&geo=JP&date=1/2011 38m&cmpt=q

 

[anexanhume]

All right I broke google

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Nintendo, Playstation, Xbox&geo=JP&date=1/2011 38m&cmpt=q

Keep in mind that Japanese wouldn't search full English names like that. Add PS3 to the graph and see how small everything else becomes. Wii U and PS4 are pretty short and are used to refer to the consoles. I don't know Japanese so I don't know what the most commonly searched Japanese terms would be, though.

 

[SwiftDeath]

Keep in mind that Japanese wouldn't search full English names like that. Add PS3 to the graph and see how small everything else becomes. Wii U and PS4 are pretty short and are used to refer to the consoles. I don't know Japanese so I don't know what the most commonly search Japanese terms would be, though.

That's a good point. Hopefully PS4 does well in Japan and lights a fire in Japanese developers but I doubt it unfortunately

 

[makingmusic476]

Its big games aren't exclusives, and Nintendo launched their system with a release from a franchise in which each release surpasses at least 1 million in sales.

PS4 doesn't have a single title that can compare to that. Then you've also got the MH3 port, and Nintendo Land (which I personally expected to do significantly better).

The PS4 launch lineup is decidedly weaker than that of the Wii U.

But the NSMB series has fallen flat on its face given the frequency of releases.

One could have made a similar argument about launch line ups to gauge ps4's potential for success in North America, given the historical success of NSMB, the Wii U's weak launch, and the ps4's biggest hitters being multiplatform, and they would've come to a very wrong conclusion.

I don't see any scenario in which the ps4 performs near or worse than the Wii U, excluding severely constrained supply.

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Those "consoles are d00med everywhere" sayers on the other hand...uhh..

There's already another thread on that very topic.

Spoiler

I cried.

Just occurred to me PS4 launches in Japan in 3 days. This was a fast month.

That's a good point. Hopefully PS4 does well in Japan and lights a fire in Japanese developers but I doubt it unfortunately

Well, there was a Japanese firm...Kodukawa or something like that (they're really big in the Japanese game scene basically) saying they believe the system will generate a lot of Japanese dev. support, and they seemed to honestly believe it.

I really think Microsoft should license the XBO out to Sega for Japan. At least they'd have a fighting chance there.

If you want a laugh, add Xbox One.

Wow. Yeah, they need another company for Japan branding and quick.

 

[Guymelef]

Personal prediction for Japan.
200k at launch
260k first month.

 

[Akauser]

That would be insane.

What would've been insane is someone saying 2:1 sales by January.

PS4 ahead in America

PS4 5m by Febraury.

PS4 still stock constrainted as of Mid Febraury.

I don't think its beyond belief the PS4 will do really well in Japan launch... In fact I think it will be the best console launch ever coz everytime everyone has downplayed how well it'll do they have been soo wrong. 1m in 2 days wouldn't suprise me at this point in fact not hitting 1m in a few days would be the suprise.

#thethirstisreal

 

[Sean*O]

I'll be surprised if they don't sell out completely of their initial shipment to Japan, whatever that number may be.

 

[boredandlazy]

Well, there was a Japanese firm...Kodukawa or something like that (they're really big in the Japanese game scene basically) saying they believe the system will generate a lot of Japanese dev. support, and they seemed to honestly believe it.

Kadokawa?

 

[anexanhume]

I'll be surprised if they don't sell out completely of their initial shipment to Japan, whatever that number may be.

Me too. They've sold out in every major territory they've launched in.

What I don't know is if they have pre-order numbers to gauge demand. Do they even do pre-orders in Japan?

 

[SwiftDeath]

What I don't know is if they have pre-order numbers to gauge demand. Do they even do pre-orders in Japan?

yes

 

[jhmtehgamr20xx]

Kadokawa?

Yeah, I don't actually know the name, but it's something like that. Someone has to know.

Edit: Apparently that person is you x3.

That would be awful. For comparison, the PS2 still managed to sell over 100k in 2010.

Fair enough; I've since been told that the Jan. NPD might've been a net of units returned from Dec as well, so they may've technically sold more than reported.

I can't see it doing much better tho. And XBO is no PS2.

I certainly don't think that the "All-in-One Entertainment Box" would easily make casuals/non-gamers go ga-ga over it like Microsoft thought it would.

Can't necessarily say that just yet; don't know exactly what Amazon has cooking but whether you like them or not it's pretty interesting. Maybe they can do what MS couldn't.

 

[spwolf]

In fact I think it will be the best console launch ever coz everytime everyone has downplayed how well it'll do they have been soo wrong. 1m in 2 days wouldn't suprise me at this point in fact not hitting 1m in a few days would be the suprise.

#thethirstisreal

1m is not possible at all, thats like saying that PS4 will sell 30 mill first year... for every reason imaginable, it is not going to happen.

 

[mujun]

Both versions are available for pre-order on Japanese Amazon. I think over time the PS4 will do great numbers in Japan but it looks like it'll be a moderate success to start.

 

[serversurfer]

Both versions are available for pre-order on Japanese Amazon. I think over time the PS4 will do great numbers in Japan but it looks like it'll be a moderate success to start.

They have two versions of the PS4 in Japan? What are they?

How long has it been up on Amazon? How many do they have?

 

[crinale]

Bamco CEO stated that he'll be happy if PS4 does 300-500K through March.

 

[Galactic Barret]

Both versions are available for pre-order on Japanese Amazon. I think over time the PS4 will do great numbers in Japan but it looks like it'll be a moderate success to start.

Wouldn't Sony tell japanese retailers to take as many preorders as possible, like they did in NA? Maybe they haven't put a limit on preorders.

 

[Dead Prince]

Bamco CEO stated that he'll be happy if PS4 does 300-500K through March.

That should be enough for a new tales game

 

[hawk2025]

All right I broke google

http://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=Nintendo, Playstation, Xbox&geo=JP&date=1/2011 38m&cmpt=q

Now add "ps4" to your search terms for a surprise

 

[Crazyeyez15]

Went into gamestop in the Bronx like four days ago.. no ps4s but plenty of xb1's. I Asked when they will be getting more ps4s they said late april at the earliest.

 

[Skeff]

They have two versions of the PS4 in Japan? What are they?

How long has it been up on Amazon? How many do they have?

Knack might make it to 1m sold WW, hot on the heels of Forza...

 

[Akauser]

1m is not possible at all, thats like saying that PS4 will sell 30 mill first year... for every reason imaginable, it is not going to happen.

Well after being wrong at almost every juncture till now perhaps I overcompensated a tad. The premise being it'll do better than people thought/think... Its yet to fall below an expectation.

 

[ProfessorMoran]

Bamco CEO stated that he'll be happy if PS4 does 300-500K through March.

Are they even making games for the PS4?

 

[Nightengale]

Are they even making games for the PS4?

Eventually.

Gundam, Im@S.

 

[kasane]

Things change and things have changed... now, Japan is all about handheld gaming and those numbers are not possible at all.

nostradamus please tell me the winning lotto numbers

 

[serversurfer]

Thanks, Skeff. <3

And good; Knack's a great game. My 4yo nephew and I have a ton of fun with it. Based Cerny nailed it.

The only thing that would make it better is a patch to make Relics fly to Robo-Knack too. My nephew always feels like he's getting jilted.

 

[ReBurn]

Well after being wrong at almost every juncture till now perhaps I overcompensated a tad. The premise being it'll do better than people thought/think... Its yet to fall below an expectation.

PS2 sold 600K on launch day in Japan.
PS3 sold ~80K on launch day in Japan.

I think it will do well, but I would be surprised if it even gets close to PS2 numbers.

 

[Skeff]

Thanks, Skeff. <3

And good; Knack's a great game. My 4yo nephew and I have a ton of fun with it. Based Cerny nailed it.

The only thing that would make it better is a patch to make Relics fly to Robo-Knack too. My nephew always feels like he's getting jilted.

I'm not ashamed to say that I'm a proud owner of the Knack PS4 bundle, With it being described as a small title, hopefully the sales will be good enough for a sequel despite the reception by critics. I'd like a little more platforming and more special modes like stealth knack which would be available at different times in the game and perhaps needed for simple "puzzles", But a solid launch game IMO

 

[Kyoufu]

PS2 sold 600K on launch day in Japan.
PS3 sold ~80K on launch day in Japan.

I think it will do well, but I would be surprised if it even gets close to PS2 numbers.

It'll do a lot better than PS3 at least. PS3 was a disaster in terms of price and supply.

 

[fatgamecat]

I personally thought pre-launch that PS4 would reach 2:1 globally after supply constraints were dealt with. Based on the numerous surveys, preorder numbers, and metrics where the 2:1 ratio kept popping up.

If sales numbers continue at the same pace as January, we're on track for 2:1 globally by year's end pretty easily. Of course PS4 will slow down after Feb, and Xbox might pick up with a price drop, but the general trend is pretty obvious at this point.

 

[ReBurn]

It'll do a lot better than PS3 at least. PS3 was a disaster in terms of price and supply.

Agreed. I wouldn't be surprised by 300K on launch day with 400K by the end of the first week, but that's just a gut feeling. The home console market in Japan has been in decline for some time compared to the West, so I think it is reasonable to be conservative.

I personally thought pre-launch that PS4 would reach 2:1 globally after supply constraints were dealt with. Based on the numerous surveys, preorder numbers, and metrics where the 2:1 ratio kept popping up.

If sales numbers continue at the same pace as January, we're on track for 2:1 globally by year's end pretty easily. Of course PS4 will slow down after Feb, and Xbox might pick up with a price drop, but the general trend is pretty obvious at this point.

I wonder if there will be any bump in the US in February or March due to people having extra cash for income tax refunds. I know a few people who want to buy a new console when they get that cash bump.

 

[DBT85]

I personally thought pre-launch that PS4 would reach 2:1 globally after supply constraints were dealt with. Based on the numerous surveys, preorder numbers, and metrics where the 2:1 ratio kept popping up.

If sales numbers continue at the same pace as January, we're on track for 2:1 globally by year's end pretty easily. Of course PS4 will slow down after Feb, and Xbox might pick up with a price drop, but the general trend is pretty obvious at this point.

The PS4 will be at a 2:1 ratio to the Xbone by the end of March, April at the outside, let alone the end of the year. Its currently 5.3:3.3.

End of February should see that somewhere around 6.5:3.6, depending how many they sell in Japan.

I guestimate the PS4 being at 7.5m and the Xbone at 4.2m by March 31st. That's assuming Feb sales pick up a little from the estimated 258k for January and that Titanfall doubles them for March and that the PS4 just continues to sell out.

 

[OmahaG8]

I so hope everyone is wrong and Sony crushes in Japan.

 

[OneUh8]

I am going to say the PS4 sells 400-500k in the first month there.

 

[SquashMatch]

I so hope everyone is wrong and Sony crushes in Japan.

Me too, if for nothing else than a revival of the Japanese developers.

 

[BoboBrazil]

I so hope everyone is wrong and Sony crushes in Japan.

We know preorders sold out in minutes in Japan. They also started increasing production back in December to prepare for higher than anticipated demand in Japan. The question is how many units will they ship? If they have 500k systems, they will sell 500k systems. PS2 sold over 980k within 1 day, but that was at a cheaper price. I feel safe with my 500k estimate earlier in the thread within 3 days as a conservative figure.

 

[makingmusic476]

I personally thought pre-launch that PS4 would reach 2:1 globally after supply constraints were dealt with. Based on the numerous surveys, preorder numbers, and metrics where the 2:1 ratio kept popping up.

If sales numbers continue at the same pace as January, we're on track for 2:1 globally by year's end pretty easily. Of course PS4 will slow down after Feb, and Xbox might pick up with a price drop, but the general trend is pretty obvious at this point.

Pre-launch I was thinking 3:1 long term at minimum, barring drastic moves by Microsoft.

Right now the ratio of current sales is ~2:1 in the US, I believe higher in the UK, and what, >4:1 in various mainland European countries? I think it'll be 2:1 in several months in areas outside of Japan, with whatever the ps4 does in Japan only adding to that gap.

 

[Ken Masters]

Why are people so optimistic that PS4 is going to do so well when it's clear that Japan has moved on from home consoles to mobile gaming?

 

[TomShoe]

Why are people so optimistic that PS4 is going to do so well when it's clear that Japan has moved on from home consoles to mobile gaming?

Because the PS4 is hotly anticipated since there's lots of good word of mouth going on in the rest of the world, and because they've had to wait 3 monts post-launch.

 

[cafemomo]

Why are people so optimistic that PS4 is going to do so well when it's clear that Japan has moved on from home consoles to mobile gaming?

It's gonna do well.

Just not PS3 well.

 

[fatgamecat]

The PS4 will be at a 2:1 ratio to the Xbone by the end of March, let alone the end of the year. Its currently 5.3:3.3.

End of February should see that somewhere around 6.5:3.6, depending how many they sell in Japan.

I prefer to be conservative and estimate mid-late 2014 rather than early. PS4 demand is very high right now but when supply meets demand there could be a significant drop off. I also think MS will introduce a $399 model after Titanfall doesn't move the units they expect.

Sony will probably sell about 300-500k consoles in Japan.

 

[Uno Venova]

Why are people so optimistic that PS4 is going to do so well when it's clear that Japan has moved on from home consoles to mobile gaming?

What do you think it will do?

 

[Metalingus5150]

Where do the dancing Knack gifs come from? Is that in the actual game?

 

[Dead Prince]

I prefer to be conservative and estimate mid-late 2014 rather than early. PS4 demand is very high right now but when supply meets demand there could be a significant drop off. I also think MS will introduce a $399 model after Titanfall doesn't move the units they expect.

Sony will probably sell about 300-500k consoles in Japan.

since it was 5.3 million as of february. i hope 400k sells between then and japan launch. i want my 6 million milestone.

Where do the dancing Knack gifs come from? Is that in the actual game?

end credit

 

[beast786]

Knack might make it to 1m sold WW, hot on the heels of Forza...

After PS4 launch in Japan



SCEJ : KnacK has been the fastest selling Platformer ever in the history of gaming *















*platformer game that start and end with K

 

[OmahaG8]

Me too, if for nothing else than a revival of the Japanese developers.

We know preorders sold out in minutes in Japan. They also started increasing production back in December to prepare for higher than anticipated demand in Japan. The question is how many units will they ship? If they have 500k systems, they will sell 500k systems. PS2 sold over 980k within 1 day, but that was at a cheaper price. I feel safe with my 500k estimate earlier in the thread within 3 days as a conservative figure.

I have nothing to prove it - but I'm of the belief that the last gen went on so long everyone began to lose interest. Everyone wanted to want something new. The Wii U did not deliver on that demand/urge. For a lot of people, "next gen" has finally just begun.

Spoiler

I bought a Wii U day one. I claim diplomatic immunity.