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NPD Sales Results for April 2014 [Up2: XB1/360 hardware, PS4 #1/XB1 #2 best selling]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
What is the 360 currently selling? Are we looking at Fall before the streams cross?
I would be curious to get EU numbers. Given the worldwide shipment numbers we have, the 15M lead in the US, and 3M lead in Japan, PAL PS3 vs Wii must be getting close.
theprodigy
Member
Haunted
Member
double post, c'mon son
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Why?
too low or too high?
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
Because 2014 has WiiU's two biggest sellers: MK and Smash.
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Can't see Wii U getting close to 20m unfortunately.
From next year, PS4 and even XB1 will start to cannibalize its potential sales, when both will have a cheaper price.
From next year, PS4 and even XB1 will start to cannibalize its potential sales, when both will have a cheaper price.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
So price cuts dont move hardware, and the WiiU wont be in a better positon to lower prices 24 months into market rather than 18?
shinra-bansho
Member
It just seems relatively unlikely that even if Mario Kart and Smash manage to produce something more than a transient effect, that those increases can be sustained in the absolute software vacuum black hole that follows.
Nintendo seems to be banking on those two titles alone to drive shipments up 30%+ this year. 3.8M would be ~40%. (Although the shipments last FY were muted by the massive launch over-shipment, so that may be an overestimate of the necessary impact.) But I can't see those two titles sustaining such sales through the next FY. It will need new and significant releases.
I don't think there's any retail titles announced for the system beyond CY14? And even in this year, outside of the two aforementioned titles, there are about 4-6 (?) retail releases slated for the system?
Nintendo seems to be banking on those two titles alone to drive shipments up 30%+ this year. 3.8M would be ~40%. (Although the shipments last FY were muted by the massive launch over-shipment, so that may be an overestimate of the necessary impact.) But I can't see those two titles sustaining such sales through the next FY. It will need new and significant releases.
I don't think there's any retail titles announced for the system beyond CY14? And even in this year, outside of the two aforementioned titles, there are about 4-6 (?) retail releases slated for the system?
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
That's pretty standard for Pre-E3 lineups.
Post E3 if that holds true is a different story, but to state Nintendo being able to maintain poor sales (which 250k average WW per month are) is "utterly absurd" is reaching.
Is it really standard? It strikes me that not even the newest Assassin's Creed for 360/PS3 is announced on Wii U (nor is CoD Advanced Warfare, but to be fair, Ghosts was also announced really late, so that one could conceivably be coming). I mean, if we're talking multi-plats, what do they have to look forward to? Batman will be missing this year, so will almost all multi-platforms. Watch_Dogs might hit by fall, but I'm still skeptical it comes out at all for Wii U. Outside of Skylanders, what kind of big publisher 3rd party support is it receiving from the likes of EA, Activision, Ubisoft, Take Two, Warner, etc? From what I can gather, it seems Activision is the only one supporting it with a few titles.
It is very telling that the last gen AC is not coming out, I'd take that as a signal Ubisoft is dropping support much like EA and others already have. I could, of course, be jumping the gun. Time will tell come E3.
shinra-bansho
Member
There's plenty of software announced for other platforms in comparison, both last and current gen.
They were unable to maintain a 250K monthly average in the last fiscal year, and have been generally very poor at meeting forecasts for ages, so skepticism isn't really unwarranted.
3.8M a year amounts to more like 320K a month, it's plausible for the current fiscal year but I don't really see what keeps the Wii U there in FY16. They will have launched all their heaviest hitters, so essentially we get into the "one new big game" territory.
Essentially, no man is an island. And I don't see how Nintendo sustain themselves at those levels going it alone in FY16.
They were unable to maintain a 250K monthly average in the last fiscal year, and have been generally very poor at meeting forecasts for ages, so skepticism isn't really unwarranted.
3.8M a year amounts to more like 320K a month, it's plausible for the current fiscal year but I don't really see what keeps the Wii U there in FY16. They will have launched all their heaviest hitters, so essentially we get into the "one new big game" territory.
Essentially, no man is an island. And I don't see how Nintendo sustain themselves at those levels going it alone in FY16.
Wii U sales haven't averaged 250k WW a month. You might get that number by dividing its current LTD sales by the 19 months it has been on the market, but that number is heavily skewed by Nov/Dec 12 launch window sales.
Aquamarine
Member
NPD average:
Holiday 2012 average: 444K
2013 non-holiday average: 51K
Holiday 2013 average: 352K
2014 non-holiday average: 48K
Which is like 88k per month average starting in Jan 13 after launch. EU sales are a good deal worse than that. What is Japan sitting at?
Aquamarine
Member
Famitsu Monthly Average:
2012 Holiday average (December 2012): 638,339
2013 non-holiday average (January 2013 - October 2013): 44,631
2013 Holiday average (November 2013 - December 2013): 216,887
2014 non-holiday average (January 2014 - April 2014): 50,068
Price cuts don't really move sustained hardware for bomba systems. Why can't we just use the Gamecube's sales arc as a nice point of comparison?
BTW that would be tremendously generous to WiiU.
And lol, I wonder if 360 will never pass Wii now. That would be so hilarious after seeing that squawking from the peanut gallery every month. Assume a gap of 50k, it would close in 6 months...but I wonder if they both just asymptotically go to 0. Then again, the holiday should help 360 while Wii is a dead corpse poo eating crap fist shit explodaton fireball diaper sandwichoshit catorce
I was thinking someone should do this.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I think its fair to say the WiiU is unprecedented; it seems a lot of people would consider it as a secondary 'only for nintendo games' system at a lower price point.
Whether the Wii can move 3.8 million a year for 2 years isn't obvious, but to say it is utterly absurd is imo incorrect.
Aaron Strife
Banned
but 2015 will have Zelda and Mario Galaxy 3 and Metroid Dread
Is there a peripheral for that?
BananaSprinkles
Banned
Would you by chance have the numbers for the PS3's LTD? I thought I saw it posted earlier in the thread but after skimming through the last 20~ pages, I couldn't find anything.
Aquamarine
Member
360 - 41.2 million as of February 2014 NPD
PS3 - 25.7 million as of February 2014 NPD
Add March / April's numbers onto that and you get the current LTD.
I would absolutely buy a $150-200 WiiU without the tablet controller as a secondary console.
But, if they never lose the tablet, it might be a while before it hits a price point I'm comfortable with.
MonsterHunter
Member
I dont see whats the deal with one console selling some more units than the other. Like, someone would say: "my console finally sold more units that yours". Like if units sold had nothing to do with how much money each console made. Companies, i though that thats what they wanted, money.
I dont want to make anyone angry, really
I dont want to make anyone angry, really
BananaSprinkles
Banned
Much appreciated.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
360 sold 71k last month while the Wii sold ~17.5k.
Here's what the last 12 months have looked like, one LTD and the other individual months:
Aquamarine
Member
ヽ(*゜∀゜*)ノ
Will happen either August/September. Gap is far too small for it not too.
jhmtehgamr20xx
Banned
Textbook Dramatica 101.
The industry is doing okay overall. The AAA market may be in trouble but I think that's a good thing. Console sales might be par-for-the-course when you adjust their sales to normal console sale trajectory.
Calm down, everything's gonna be alright.
I tried to compile a list of all the big franchises and hotly anticipated new multiplatform IPs releasing this year. Let me know if I missed any.
I think you'll see a pattern.
UPCOMING MAJOR 2014 MULTIPLATFORM RELEASES
Releasing on Wii U:
- Watch Dogs (six months late)
- Disney Infinity 2.0
- Just Dance (not announced but probably coming to Wii U)
- Skylanders (same)
- Lego (same, if they do another one this year)
NOT releasing on Wii U
- Madden 15
- Call of Duty: Advanced Warfare
- Assassin's Creed: Unity
- Batman: Arkham Knight
- The Crew
- Far Cry 4
- EA Sports UFC
- Fifa (not announced but probably not since last year's didn't)
Going forward, I would not expect any multiplatform open world game, military shooter, sports game, or racing game to appear on Wii U. If it's for kids, publishers are still interested.
Do you mean from a Nintendo first party perspective?
On the other platforms we already have announcements stretching into 2016.
NeonZ
Member
Well, there are three titles that have been announced, but with no dates or details. FExSMT, Yoshi and Zelda.
First half of 2015 Wii U will benefit from having Mario 3D World, Mario Kart and Smash in the library and have a good shot at higher baseline sales than this year where it only had Mario 3D World for the first 5 months. They'll be part of the lineup beyond that and Zelda and a price cut would help drive sales in the second half of the year. Then there's whatever else they announce at E3 this year, second half of this year and first half of next year including in E3 2015. It's premature to say there won't be games on Wii U next year. It's only May, obviously the announcements will be focused on games for this year.
If the Wii U was competing against a monster like the PS2 which had 10-20 games a month it would be more difficult but PS4/Xbone are only getting 2-3 games a month themselves and it will a while before they even catch up to the size of the Wii U library. The battle will be more on quality of games so Nintendo will have a fair bit of space to use their primary strength to push sales up from really bad to less bad.
Gamecube the first 18 months had if I recall correctly, Smash Bros, Mario Sunshine, Zelda Wind Waker, Resident Evil, Resident Evil Zero, Rogue Leader, Metroid Prime, Starfox Adventures, Sonic when he was more relevent, EA games, a reasonable range of other 3rd party games and a 25% price cut. Then there was the filler like Waverace/Pikmin/Luigi.
Wii U 18 months in and the only real game of note is Mario 3D Land(NSMB also but that's not much different). Donkey Kong as well I guess but again another platformer. The rest is filler like Pikmin/Luigi which doesn't help much and the more blue ocean games(Wii Fit, Nintendoland) which failed to make an impact. It also only had a 16% price cut which was a couple of months later than the Gamecube price cut.
When Nintendo correct some of their errors there's a lot of upside for them to have a much better mid-late life cycle than the Gamecube. They also have much more favourable conditions since PS4 is bombing in Japan worse than Wii U, not having DVD is not a big disadvantage, it doesn't look like a purple lunchbox and they have a bigger price advantage.
Given the weird announcement patterns for COD on Wii U I think it's too soon to conclusively say with one yet. It might get ported or it might not but past precedent indicates the former is still likely.
shinra-bansho
Member
I think COD is basically a question mark, as from memory, their second go-around on the platform amounted in the same low sales. If they don't really see any potential for growth do they keep putting the games on the platform - or just take those resources and make PS4/XBO DLC or something.
Super Smash Bros 4 was announced at E3 2011. Three years ago.
And games that are TBD and thus presumably 2015* i.e. new Zelda game, Yarn Yoshi and SMTxFE will similarly have been announced for 2 years+, when they eventually release.
So Nintendo haven't been that hush-hush about their release slate, but maybe they'll wow everyone at E3 2014.
(*Oh, there are titles beyond CY14, I was mistaken earlier.)
Even from that angle, games that are slated for late 2014, i.e. Bayonetta 2 and X, were announced well before release, late 2012 and January 2013.
Super Smash Bros 4 was announced at E3 2011. Three years ago.
And games that are TBD and thus presumably 2015* i.e. new Zelda game, Yarn Yoshi and SMTxFE will similarly have been announced for 2 years+, when they eventually release.
So Nintendo haven't been that hush-hush about their release slate, but maybe they'll wow everyone at E3 2014.
(*Oh, there are titles beyond CY14, I was mistaken earlier.)
Imperfected
Member
I wouldn't be too quick in assuming the system will even continue to enjoy particularly strong first party support that far into the future. Assuming Nintendo learned anything from the Wii-U and 3DS launches - which I admit, is almost as big an assumption as the one you're making - they're going to be pulling teams into development for whatever successor system they're prepping much earlier than they did for the Wii-U, and in greater numbers.
Avoiding a "games drought" for launch year requires development of games starting well before launch. You're likely to see a mass exodus of Nintendo development from the Wii-U even earlier than you did the Wii, now that they've grasped the turnaround time on modern development cycles. It's not only strategically sound, it's fiscally sensible, given that the small install base prevents them from making the sort of profit margins on software that normally keeps them churning out games for a system well through its life cycle.
Between that and the unprecedented lack of third party partnership, Wii-U releases are likely to fall off a cliff in a way we've honestly never seen before.
Aquamarine
Member
Wii U has a 2.35 million LTD (sell-through to consumers in the USA) as of May 3rd, 2014.
Wii U has a 2.81 million LTD (shipments to retailers in North + South America) as of March 31st, 2014.
Wii U has a 1.73 million LTD (sell-through to consumers in Japan) as of May 11th, 2014.
Wii U has a 1.81 million LTD (shipments to retailers in Japan) as of March 31st, 2014.
Exact GfK / NPD sell-through to consumer data for Europe + Australia + Other hasn't been leaked at this time. Only some occasional regional data.
Wii U has a 1.56 million LTD (shipments to retailers in Europe + Australia + Other) as of March 31st, 2014.
Wii U has a 6.17 million LTD (shipments to retailers worldwide) as of March 31st, 2014.
I don't know why I'm going to mention this since the topic has moved on from this, but they do need one game, but they never know what exactly that one game is, so having a variety of software is necessary because the more software there is the higher probability that one of those pieces of software being Nintendo's "One big hit," like Wii Sports, Tetris, or Pokemon.
Aquamarine
Member
In terms of hardcore titles...we could potentially see:
1) No more Arkham games
2) No more Call of Duty games
3) No more Assassin's Creed games
...as a very real reality for Nintendo hardcore retail support this holiday season.
But it's not just the hardcore tentpole titles that have fallen off a cliff. The Wii U third-party retail environment is...very small at the moment.
List of Wii U retail games released in the first five months of 2014 in the USA:
That is the grand total of five months of retail releases.
Activision with shovelware, Nintendo with core games, and Warner Bros. with LEGO. That's it.
Compare this with five months of GameCube releases at its equivalent year in the USA retail market:
January 2003:
1) Atv Quad Power Race 2 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT
2) Black & Bruised MAJESCO
3) Resident Evil 2 CAPCOM USA
4) Resident Evil 3:Nemes CAPCOM USA
5) Skies Of Arcadia Lgnd SEGA OF AMERICA
6) Sum Of All Fears UBISOFT (CORP)
February 2003:
7) All Star Baseball2004 ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT
8) Bust A Move 3000 UBISOFT (CORP)
9) Summoner:Goddess Rbrn THQ
10) T. Clancys Ghost Recon UBISOFT (CORP)
11) Vexx ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT
March 2003:
12) Backyard Baseball ATARI
13) Batman: Dark Tomorrow KEMCO AMERICA
14) Dakar 2: Ult Rally ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT
15) Def Jam Vendetta ELECTRONIC ARTS
16) Disney Basketball KONAMI OF AMERICA
17) Evolution Snowboard KONAMI OF AMERICA
18) Mlb Slugfest 20-04 MIDWAY
19) Piglet'S Big Game GOTHAM GAMES (TAKE 2)
20) Rayman 3: Hoodlum UBISOFT (CORP)
21) Red Faction Ii THQ
22) Superman: Apokolips ATARI
23) The Sims ELECTRONIC ARTS
24) Transworld Surf: Next ATARI
25) Wwe Crush Hour THQ
26) Zelda: The Wind Waker NINTENDO OF AMERICA
April 2003:
27) City Racer UBISOFT (CORP)
28) Conflict: Desert Storm GOTHAM GAMES (TAKE 2)
29) Ikaruga ATARI
30) Nba Street Vol 2 ELECTRONIC ARTS
31) T. Clancys Splinter Cell UBISOFT (CORP)
32) Tube Slider TURBO TECHNOLOGIES
33) X2:Wolverines Revenge ACTIVISION
May 2003:
34) Disney'S Finding Nemo THQ
35) Enter The Matrix ATARI
36) Hulk VIVENDI UNIVERSAL
37) Lost Kingdoms Ii ACTIVISION
38) Preview Disc NINTENDO OF AMERICA
39) Shrek Super Party TDK MEDIACTIVE
40) Speed Kings ACCLAIM ENTERTAINMENT
I know the retail market has changed significantly since 2003. But it serves to highlight just how far Nintendo has fallen / how barren the current Wii U retail market is. Nintendo is lucky they have the eShop and all of those indies signed on board, otherwise the sheer lack of retail content for Wii U alone would be quite frightening.
Psycho_Mantis
Banned
No. 2014 is the year WiiU sales will peak. Consoles peak early-mid cycle (2-3 years); whats the differentiating factor is that some consoles have much higher peaks and longer tails while others have abysmal peaks and crater.
Unless the p[rice cut is severe and the lineup for 2015 is better than expected I highly doubt 2015 will fare better for the WiiU.
Mario Galaxy 3??
Smash alone will probably outsell all those games combined.