Support NeoGAF

[heidern]

I'm wondering if that's a viable strategy for Nintendo in the long-term; since the 3DS became a de facto upgrade path from *both* the PSP and DS, leaving the Vita by the wayside, in part due to the Monster Hunter exclusivity deal, making some smart publishing deals could perhaps have a similar effect - on a smaller scale - making the Wii U the de facto upgrade path from the PS3.

The most likely 'upgrade path' from PS3 is probably 3DS or mobile. I expect there will be serious consolidation with regard to Japanese 3rd party console games. As PS3 declines I think devs will still support it for now and some will port their games to Wii U. A few first party Nintendo games and some 3rd party developed exclusives(Bayonetta, Hyrule Warriors, X) every year will probably be enough to give Nintendo a little momentum to have a modest console business in Japan and secure some other modest 3rd party games(be they ports or exclusives).

PS4 in Japan just looks dead to me. To turn things around there needs to be drastic action taken but I don't see that happening. There won't be a sudden mass intake of Japan targeted 3rd party games, just a few token releases and ports of games targeted towards the west. The other option is big games but GTA and GT are 3 years away MGS is cross platform. We'll see 1 of FF or KH next year if we're lucky and hopefully Resident Evil 7. But expect all of those 'big' games to be heavily targeted towards the west at the expense of sales in Japan.

3DS needs a price cut and some of the games(Smash, Yokai Watch 2) to somehow recover hardware sales. 50% decline YOY is bad, they need to try to cut that closer to 25%.

 

[Principate]

As Road pointed out. VITA has no game sold over 500K at this time.

Your original point was that "PS3 is a mid tier and niche machine like VITA". While PS3 was not a AAA console in Japan, it does get most of the big franchises. It's just that most games from those big franchises failed to sell over 1 million on PS3 and ended up between 500K-900K. On top of that, PS3 got the real mid-tier titles which sells between 200K-500K.

On the other hand, VITA doesn't even get any of those big franchises PS3 gets and is really relying on the mid-tier games which is why we see no titles selling over 500K and most of the big VITA titles are between 200K-500K.

Indeed and that was my point. There was a very specific reason they they didn't sell over a million copies. Because the install base of the PS3 wasn't buying those games in large numbers like they used it. That in effect means the power of these AAA didn't mean much to the install base of the PS3.

Which was my whole argument in the first place. They didn't sell because they weren't as popular. They weren't as popular because the PS3 install base was indeed buying all kinds of games hence the mid tier games sales as you said are so close to the AAA's in the first place. For the most part the owners of the PS3 didn't treat AAA these games as special. Which is why I find it hard to start that without the variety of smaller games the PS3 would have sold anywhere near the amount it did.

 

[RalchAC]

As Road pointed out. VITA has no game sold over 500K at this time.

Your original point was that "PS3 is a mid tier and niche machine like VITA". While PS3 was not a AAA console in Japan, it does get most of the big franchises. It's just that most games from those big franchises failed to sell over 1 million on PS3 and ended up between 500K-900K. On top of that, PS3 got the real mid-tier titles which sells between 200K-500K.

On the other hand, VITA doesn't even get any of those big franchises PS3 gets and is really relying on the mid-tier games which is why we see no titles selling over 500K and most of the big VITA titles are between 200K-500K.

Keep in mind that a good chunk of those "mid-tier Vita releases" have been PS3/Vita multiplatforms titles. Games like Dragon's Crown, Musou stuff, Super Robot Wars stuff, that Jump game and some more.

 

[Nirolak]

It appears that, as the files suggested, Square Enix is actually localizing Dragon Quest games for worldwide release on iOS: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=826636

Given this, I'm just going to assume that they're going to be putting out most of their mobile content worldwide barring any huge cultural divides.

 

[oatmeal]

Stange how media create has 0 WiiU games and Famitsu has 5.

 

[GRW810]

Excuse my ignorance but... is the PS4 failing? Why aren't we hearing DOOMED analysis from far and wide like Nintendo ate facing?

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Stange how media create has 0 WiiU games and Famitsu has 5.

3 of those games are form bundles and the other 2 are out of the top 20.

 

[Habib Marwan]

Excuse my ignorance but... is the PS4 failing? Why aren't we hearing DOOMED analysis from far and wide like Nintendo ate facing?

Because it outsold the Wii U worldwide in like 4 months?

 

[L Thammy]

Excuse my ignorance but... is the PS4 failing? Why aren't we hearing DOOMED analysis from far and wide like Nintendo ate facing?

It's not failing outside of Japan. Also, there's little reason to believe that Sony views Japan as a significant market for the PS4.

 

[Principate]

Excuse my ignorance but... is the PS4 failing? Why aren't we hearing DOOMED analysis from far and wide like Nintendo ate facing?

Eh because anyone remotely following trends saw this coming a mile off. Since before it's release I knew with it's then released schedule it'd face a very Vita like first year. (vita's first year was far worse the Wii u's).

Needs a lot more Japanese third party games than it's getting.

Obviously it's doing extremely well worldwide. So it doesn't matter ultimately how t fairs in japan outside any effects effects lifetime sales.

 

[SmokeMaxX]

Considering how the PS4 is doing in Japan, could we see a shift in Japanese 3rd party support towards Nintendo? I dunno, since PS4 is dominating elsewhere and with the exchange rate, that probably means big money for exports.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

Considering how the PS4 is doing in Japan, could we see a shift in Japanese 3rd party support towards Nintendo? I dunno, since PS4 is dominating elsewhere and with the exchange rate, that probably means big money for exports.

Evidently no.

 

[Celine]

Indeed and that was my point. There was a very specific reason they they didn't sell over a million copies. Because the install base of the PS3 wasn't buying those games in large numbers like they used it.

Because japanese weren't buying those PS3s in large numbers like they used it.

 

[GRW810]

Because it outsold the Wii U worldwide in like 4 months?

I don't know why you're asking me a question, I made it clear I didn't know. Anyway, doesn't the list on the previous page say Wii U outsold PS4 after 14 weeks?

It's not failing outside of Japan. Also, there's little reason to believe that Sony views Japan as a significant market for the PS4.

I guessed that was what was saving it from negativity, a strong performance the west.

Eh because anyone remotely following trends saw this coming a mile off. Since before it's release I knew with it's then released schedule it'd face a very Vita like first year. (vita's first year was far worse the Wii u's).

Needs a lot more Japanese third party games than it's getting.

Obviously it's doing extremely well worldwide. So it doesn't matter ultimately how it fairs in japan outside any effects effects lifetime sales.

I just thought Sony being an Asian company would give it support over there, given the complete avoidance of Xbox. I'm new to sales data, just trying to understand going forward.

 

[metalslimer]

The ps4 underperforming will just speed up mobiles massacre of the current industry

 

[Nirolak]

Dang, 3DS tracking half as good as last year to this point. It's not as if 3DS is having software drought, either.

It's been doing that for a while. It just had a temporary boost with the XL promotion.

If we look at overall sales for the year:

Media Create 3DS: 1 - (924.066 / 1.711.397) = 46% decline year over year

Famitsu 3DS: 1 - (935.990 / 1.764.651) = 47% decline year over year

 

[DR2K]

PS4 really had no Japanese oriented games. What a fuck up on Sony's part. Indie games don't sell consoles unless they're Minecraft, I wish they'd move their focus from indies to JP developers. At least give them the push or incentive to shift over from PS3 to PS4. Dark Souls 2 PS4 would have been nice, along with Ultra SFIV. Plus the upcoming Tales and Persona games should have been announced for it as well. Unlike Nintendo they do work well with 3rd parties.

 

[Opiate]

The ps4 underperforming will just speed up mobiles massacre of the current industry

That would be my guess. The poor performance of the PS4 will help iOS and Android more than it will help Nintendo.

 

[Nightengale]

Eh because anyone remotely following trends saw this coming a mile off. Since before it's release I knew with it's then released schedule it'd face a very Vita like first year. (vita's first year was far worse the Wii u's).

Needs a lot more Japanese third party games than it's getting.

Obviously it's doing extremely well worldwide. So it doesn't matter ultimately how t fairs in japan outside any effects effects lifetime sales.

Pretty much. There's a reason why Iwata keeps reiterating the 'one software can change everything' mindset, because it's a very Japanese perspective, proven by how hits like Monster Hunter, Brain Age, Wii Sports, Pokemon, DQ caused a real shift in hardware and product momentum.

On the negative side, it means that Japan's move to new hardware is more influenced by software release comparatively. Even if FFXV and KH3 sells 2 million copies in Japan, gamers aren't going to buy the console 24 months in advance for that game.

2014 is simply the year where PS4 has to hold things out.

 

[Opiate]

PS4 really had no Japanese oriented games. What a fuck up on Sony's part. Indie games don't sell consoles unless they're Minecraft, I wish they'd move their focus from indies to JP developers. At least give them the push or incentive to shift over from PS3 to PS4. Dark Souls 2 PS4 would have been nice, along with Ultra SFIV. Plus the upcoming Tales and Persona games should have been announced for it as well. Unlike Nintendo they do work well with 3rd parties.

I still suspect the system is just too expensive to develop for. Unlike Western counterparts, there is at least some leeway given to PS3 games that, for instance, look like PS2 games, but that concept has limits and it typically makes far more sense to make games for cheaper platforms. Sometimes that means handhelds, but increasingly that means mobile.

Sony could have reduced the raw horsepower of the PS4 before the PS4 released, but it's far too late for that and Western markets would have strongly rebelled against the idea.

 

[L Thammy]

Considering how the PS4 is doing in Japan, could we see a shift in Japanese 3rd party support towards Nintendo? I dunno, since PS4 is dominating elsewhere and with the exchange rate, that probably means big money for exports.

It won't happen by itself, but I do think that Nintendo should make it a point to attract some of the smaller companies away from Sony. The casual audience is on mobile, so Nintendo needs to grab the hardcore audience. Might encourage more software sales as well.

 

[sörine]

3 of those games are form bundles and the other 2 are out of the top 20.

I don't think the Wii Fit U bundle is available anymore. It started charting again with the retail release.

 

[test_account]

I don't know why you're asking me a question, I made it clear I didn't know. Anyway, doesn't the list on the previous page say Wii U outsold PS4 after 14 weeks?

The WiiU didnt really outsell the PS4 in that regards, the WiiU is still about a 1.1 million units ahead of the PS4 in Japan. But yeah, the WiiU sold more in the first 14 weeks after release compared to what the PS4 sold in it's 14 weeks afte release.

 

[oatmeal]

3 of those games are form bundles and the other 2 are out of the top 20.

Ah! Gotcha, thanks!

 

[Acosta]

It appears that, as the files suggested, Square Enix is actually localizing Dragon Quest games for worldwide release on iOS: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=826636

Given this, I'm just going to assume that they're going to be putting out most of their mobile content worldwide barring any huge cultural divides.

At this rate I'm pretty sure we have a bigger chance to see Agito in English than Type-0. I can even visualize the future thread.

 

[saichi]

Indeed and that was my point. There was a very specific reason they they didn't sell over a million copies. Because the install base of the PS3 wasn't buying those games in large numbers like they used it. That in effect means the power of these AAA didn't mean much to the install base of the PS3.

Which was my whole argument in the first place. They didn't sell because they weren't as popular. They weren't as popular because the PS3 install base was indeed buying all kinds of games hence the mid tier games sales as you said are so close to the AA's in the first place/

two problem with that argument

1. PSP has one franchise selling over 1 million in Japan and most of other big games only sold between 500K-900K. Yet it sold 20 millions in Japan.

2. PSV has almost none of the big franchises on the platform and it's selling worse than PS3. It is related.

VITA is an example of how a system would do in Japan relying on mid tier games as major titles.

 

[Spiegel]

It's been doing that for a while. It just had a temporary boost with the XL promotion.

If we look at overall sales for the year:

Media Create 3DS: 1 - (924.066 / 1.711.397) = 46% decline year over year

Famitsu 3DS: 1 - (935.990 / 1.764.651) = 47% decline year over year

The problem with 3DS is that even if it's the market leader by an insane amount of units, third parties aren't treating the system as such.

I just looked at the number of new games released for 3DS and Vita in the first four months this year (Top 50 Media-Create) and the results are not what I expected.

3DS - 23
PSV - 33

Japanese publishers are making less games (as Opiate has pointed out in many ocasions) and because of this, they are the ones killing the traditional videogames industry.

 

[Minions]

I still suspect the system is just too expensive to develop for. Unlike Western counterparts, there is at least some leeway given to PS3 games that, for instance, look like PS2 games, but that concept has limits and it typically makes far more sense to make games for cheaper platforms. Sometimes that means handhelds, but increasingly that means mobile.

Sony could have reduced the raw horsepower of the PS4 before the PS4 released, but it's far too late for that and Western markets would have strongly rebelled against the idea.

I don't see how horsepower affects Japanese development at all. It surely is not hindering the indies currently. Is there some reason Japanese developers don't want to create "lesser" titles? (There did not seem to be an issue doing that on the PS3?)

 

[Nirolak]

The problem with 3DS is that even if it's the market leader by an insane amount of units, third parties aren't treating the system as such.

I just looked at the number of new games released for 3DS and Vita in the first four months this year (Top 50 Media-Create) and the results are not what I expected.

3DS - 23
PSV - 33

Japanese publishers are making less games (as Opiate has pointed out in many ocasions) and because of this, they are the ones killing the traditional videogames industry.

Right, in terms of quantity, it's all went to mobile, or where you can potentially get a handout. There's a bit of a compacting factor on Vita for sharing games with PSP/PS3/PS4 as well.

The 3DS has the biggest dedicated games from Japanese publishers (sans those that are popular enough in the West to be on consoles), and then a smattering of smaller titles, but that's not a huge line-up in aggregate even if it has an impressive array of big hitters compared to all the other platforms.

With a platform of this stature you would expect a sea of games from almost every publisher in previous generations. Instead we get Capcom announcing 2-3 3DS games and 14+ for mobile.

 

[Principate]

two problem with that argument

1. PSP has one franchise selling over 1 million in Japan and most of other big games only sold between 500K-900K. Yet it sold 20 millions in Japan.

2. PSV has almost none of the big franchises on the platform and it's selling worse than PS3. It is related.

VITA is an example of how a system would do in Japan relying on mid tier games as major titles.

Again that's the point. That's the same point I've been making all this time. Why do you think the The psp only has that 1 single megafranchise (which is a phenomenon in itself) and didn't really care too much about anything else despite it's user base. During the last generation on PlayStation handhelds and consoles especially the user base did not care about AAA unless you were the one (MH or FF), everything did not make it. I largely attribute this to the fact that obviously there weren't many prevailing popular games but a hole bunch of small games that the user base was interested in hence the rarity of million sellers.

That's why I'm led to believe that the fan base on PlayStation systems in Japan really doesn't care all that much about AAA games, they don't flock to one game to produce a million seller they spread around and enjoy various types of mid tier games.

Which is why I find it hard to consider AAA games would actually save the PS4 because unless you are the one it has often been proven they really don't care about it.

Contrast with the 3DS Wii and DS. These systems have several million sellers, because had a user base which did in fact converge into single popular franchises and it happened often Yokai watch is one in a long line of millions on these platforms

 

[Fularu]

I just don't understand why Capcom's 14 mobile games couldn't be made for the eShop too. I mean people are using their 3DS while comuting and I believe there are a fair number of hotspots around towns so what gives?

Seems like a strange market to ignore

 

[Opiate]

I don't see how horsepower affects Japanese development at all. It surely is not hindering the indies currently. Is there some reason Japanese developers don't want to create "lesser" titles? (There did not seem to be an issue doing that on the PS3?)

I think there was an issue on the PS3, just not as severe as it was in the West, where any game that wasn't top of the line faced a death sentence.

There were some exceptions in Japan, but it wasn't systemic or broad. You can't just have a few exceptions; you need the entire marketplace built around lower end titles.

 

[Principate]

I think there was an issue on the PS3, just not as severe as it was in the West, where any game that wasn't top of the line faced a death sentence.

There were some exceptions in Japan, but it wasn't systemic or broad. You can't just have a few exceptions; you need the entire marketplace built around lower end titles.

That and I imagine PS3 itself was inherently difficult develop on for a while, hence the long delay in proper support.

 

[Nirolak]

I just don't understand why Capcom's 14 mobile games couldn't be made for the eShop too. I mean people are using their 3DS while comuting and I believe there are a fair number of hotspots around towns so what gives?

Seems like a strange market to ignore

Well, for starters, most mobile games are based on OpenGL ES 2.0 standards whereas the 3DS isn't actually compliant with that.

For example Wonder Flick is coming to every platform but the 3DS, likely for this reason.

This is also what causes Unity and Unreal issues with 3DS support.

On handhelds this was less of an issue historically than your console not being compatible with major technologies since people were making games that were only on one handheld anyway.

 

[Mpl90]

Considering how the PS4 is doing in Japan, could we see a shift in Japanese 3rd party support towards Nintendo? I dunno, since PS4 is dominating elsewhere and with the exchange rate, that probably means big money for exports.

If Vita is really the last traditional Sony effort in the handheld market (possible) and PS4 cotinues doing this bad / don't go up as much as hoped (way too soon to know that now, but PS4 is seriously doing horrible), I can definitely see some niche developers and some Japanese-focused mid-to-big franchises starting heading to Nintendo consoles (or better, if we have to believe Iwata, Nintendo's family of devices), and maybe some WW-focused franchises as well (not exclusively, though, at first at least, since PS4 should be strong enough over here to sustain them). Yep, some could also start being on mobile as well, but many other won't go mobile, and those could come to Nintendo's ecosystem. Certainly, Nintendo needs to create the best conditions possible for this to happen, and not just waiting for things to happen.

 

[Minions]

I think there was an issue on the PS3, just not as severe as it was in the West, where any game that wasn't top of the line faced a death sentence.

There were some exceptions in Japan, but it wasn't systemic or broad. You can't just have a few exceptions; you need the entire marketplace built around lower end titles.

I'm just pointing out there is not this issue in the west (generally); so there is nothing to stop Japanese developers from developing games and releasing them. If Japan does not want to play these games I know a lot of people here do. They can release them around the world and even if they don't sell in Japan they should still be profitable.

I just don't see the limitation on the PS4. The PS3 had issues with self publishing which have all but been removed. If anything it should be easier to develop for both architecturally... and more accessible due to self publishing initiatives.

 

[1st Course]

Japanese publishers are making less games (as Opiate has pointed out in many ocasions) and because of this, they are the ones killing the traditional videogames industry.

Japanese retail releases

------------------------------
| Fisacle year |  NDS  | 3DS |
------------------------------
| FY3/2005     | 26    |  -  |
| FY3/2006     | 147   |  -  |
| FY3/2007     | 272   |  -  |
| FY3/2008     | 458   |  -  |
| FY3/2009     | 420   |  -  |
| FY3/2010     | 270   |  -  |
| FY3/2011     | 163   | 21  |
| FY3/2012     | 72    | 92  |
| FY3/2013     | 17    | 97  |
| FY3/2014     |  -    | 129 |
------------------------------
| Overall      | 1,845 | 339 |
------------------------------

Source: Nintendo

 

[L~A]

If Vita is really the last traditional Sony effort in the handheld market (possible) and PS4 cotinues doing this bad / don't go up as much as hoped (way too soon to know that now, but PS4 is seriously doing horrible), I can definitely see some niche developers and some Japanese-focused mid-to-big franchises starting heading to Nintendo consoles (or better, if we have to believe Iwata, Nintendo's family of devices), and maybe some WW-focused franchises as well (not exclusively, though, at first at least, since PS4 should be strong enough over here to sustain them). Yep, some could also start being on mobile as well, but many other won't go mobile, and those could come to Nintendo's ecosystem. Certainly, Nintendo needs to create the best conditions possible for this to happen, and not just waiting for things to happen.

Nah. Those publishers would move on to mobile, or PC for the most extreme cases. They're never gonna come on Nintendo platforms ever. I'd be extremely surprised if Idea Factory, Compile Heart, NIS and co start mass publishing on a Nintendo platform.

 

[KingJolly]

Wow console gaming really is dead in Japan

 

[Mpl90]

Nah. Those publishers would move on to mobile, or PC for the most extreme cases. They're never gonna come on Nintendo platforms ever. I'd be extremely surprised if Idea Factory, Compile Heart, NIS and co start mass publishing on a Nintendo platform.

I don't seriously think SH like IF, CH, Nis would go to mobile, it's not worth it for their kind of games and the audience that buy them. Some efforts from the major SH would go to mobile, but certainly not all of them, due to the kind of games and the audience that buy them.

 

[metalslimer]

Wow console gaming really is dead in Japan

And unless nintendo does something revolutionary with their handheld devices soon we'll start seeing the true decline of the handheld sector as well.

 

[Fularu]

I think a "fusion"like device could change the gaming landscape to an extent but mobile gaming will be a though nut to crack. People always have their phones and they're faster and easier to set up, carry, use and game on than anything else on the market.

People don't mind their lack of buttons/gaming features and are happy using them.

I don't see handhelds disapearing but the days of 150 million DSs are gone. (As are the days of 60+ million home consoles)

 

[Scum]

Time for that handheld, with mobile support hybrid.

 

[Instro]

And unless nintendo does something revolutionary with their handheld devices soon we'll start seeing the true decline of the handheld sector as well.

Comparing 3ds/vita sales to their predecessors, I would say that market has already been cratered.

 

[donny2112]

A general comment not specifically directed to Fularu: I sometimes feel like console wars will continue to wage even as the whole continent they fight on sinks in to the ocean.

Paradise Lost.

 

[KillerMan91]

I think a "fusion"like device could change the gaming landscape to an extent but mobile gaming will be a though nut to crack. People always have their phones and they're faster and easier to set up, carry, use and game on than anything else on the market.

People don't mind their lack of buttons/gaming features and are happy using them.

I don't see handhelds disapearing but the days of 150 million DSs are gone. (As are the days of 60+ million home consoles)

There is nothing that indicates this.

 

[theprodigy]

right, so who was that guy that said Mario Kart 8 would outsell Watch Dogs in the end worldwide in the last MC thread

 

[RM8]

Time for that handheld, with mobile support hybrid.

It stills defeat the purpose of mobile. Mobile is not appealing if you have to buy a separate device. And the iPhone or Galaxy crowd is not going to switch to WiiPhone, quote me on this

 

[donny2112]

It appears that, as the files suggested, Square Enix is actually localizing Dragon Quest games for worldwide release on iOS: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=826636

In the absence of a DQVII 3DS U.S. release, this may work to play DQVII. Have they ever ported the DQ mobile games to Android or have they stayed an iOS exclusive?

 

[Mpl90]

right, so who was that guy that said Mario Kart 8 would outsell Watch Dogs in the end worldwide in the last MC thread

?