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May 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes June 14th

"#Nintendo said MK8 attach rate in US was 18% versus 7% for MK7. MK8 boosted WiiU sales 4.1x week over week v. MK7 2.4x"


Wii U did 48K in a 4-week period in April.

That's an average of 12K per week.


Assuming the same average constant throughout May NPD:


Week 1 (May 5th - May 11th): 12K (12K total)

Week 2 (May 12th - May 18th): 12K (24K total)

Week 3 (May 19th - May 25th): 12K (36K total)

Week 4 (May 26th - June 1st): 49K (12K * 4.1) (85K total)


Therefore, it would be wise for me to adjust my 98K prediction down to 85K.






"#nintendo in analyst meeting said in usa sold 450k of MK8 in 3 days versus 250k on MK7."


It works with the 18% attach rate claim like this:


Mario Kart -> 450K in May -> 18% attach rate


Wii U sales in USA through April: 2.35 million
Assumption for May sales: 0.085 million
Total LTD assumption: 2.44 million

450K / 2440K = 18.44% attach rate

This is supposing Nintendo rounded 18.44% down to 18%, of course.
 
Hmm Aqua I would think that 12k a week average from April is low based on no large games coming out soon

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a slight weekly bump for the first 3 weeks in anticipation of Mario Kart

Say 12k -> 15k. Maybe the first 2 weeks didn't experience much of a bump but anticipation likely built up during the 3rd week so even if only the 3rd week was just 15k instead of 12k

Code:
W1 W2 W3 W4 Total
12 12 15 62 101

Wii U is hard to predict with that information :\
 

ascii42

Member
Hmm Aqua I would think that 12k a week average from April is low based on no large games coming out soon

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a slight weekly bump for the first 3 weeks in anticipation of Mario Kart

Say 12k -> 15k. Maybe the first 2 weeks didn't experience much of a bump but anticipation likely built up during the 3rd week so even if only the 3rd week was just 15k instead of 12k

Code:
W1 W2 W3 W4 Total
12 12 15 62 101

Wii U is hard to predict with that information :\

The bundle makes it tough to say. You may be right, or sales could just have easily dropped the previous week(s) in anticipation of the bundle.
 
The bundle makes it tough to say. You may be right, or sales could just have easily dropped the previous week(s) in anticipation of the bundle.

Yeah I suppose with the bundle people would prefer to pre-order it if they were interested in Mario Kart

I wonder if that could possibly suggest that the previous 3 weeks were actually lower than the april weekly average as people held off to get the bundle instead?
 
Hmm Aqua I would think that 12k a week average from April is low based on no large games coming out soon

I wouldn't be surprised if there was a slight weekly bump for the first 3 weeks in anticipation of Mario Kart

Say 12k -> 15k. Maybe the first 2 weeks didn't experience much of a bump but anticipation likely built up during the 3rd week so even if only the 3rd week was just 15k instead of 12k

Code:
W1 W2 W3 W4 Total
12 12 15 62 101

Wii U is hard to predict with that information :\

The bundle makes it tough to say. You may be right, or sales could just have easily dropped the previous week(s) in anticipation of the bundle.

Yeah I suppose with the bundle people would prefer to pre-order it if they were interested in Mario Kart

I wonder if that could possibly suggest that the previous 3 weeks were actually lower than the april weekly average as people held off to get the bundle instead?


I've always leaned towards the more pessimistic side when it comes to non-holiday sales of Wii U, as I seem to be close going with these cynical predictions.

In this case, I'm putting significant weight on the strength of the Mario Kart 8 hardware SKU to sway new adopters of the Wii U towards the 4th week of the reporting month.

That is, the increased pre-release demand from Mario Kart 8 hype will be matched by the people who decided to forego a pre-release purchase to wait for the Mario Kart 8 bundle, resulting in similarities to April.

But you're right...it's an approximate guess. Anything in the 75-120K range is a decent guess in my book. I'm just deciding to choose the low end of the spectrum because of precedent.
 
Completely reasonable Aqua

I'm likely just getting fidgety because NPD is almost here. God knows where I land with my own numbers.
 

prag16

Banned
I've always leaned towards the more pessimistic side when it comes to non-holiday sales of Wii U, as I seem to be close going with these cynical predictions.

In this case, I'm putting significant weight on the strength of the Mario Kart 8 hardware SKU to sway new adopters of the Wii U towards the 4th week of the reporting month.

That is, the increased pre-release demand from Mario Kart 8 hype will be matched by the people who decided to forego a pre-release purchase to wait for the Mario Kart 8 bundle, resulting in similarities to April.

But you're right...it's an approximate guess. Anything in the 75-120K range is a decent guess in my book. I'm just deciding to choose the low end of the spectrum because of precedent.

Yeah, I just said in the other thread that 70-120 sounds like the plausible range. Above or below that isn't really within the realistic realm of possibility. Most people are in that range, but some people had better get revising or they're gonna get busted up come NPD release..
 

shink

Member
I'll try it this month just for fun
[360] 55,000
[3DS] 85,000
[PS3] 30,000
[PS4] 175,000
[WIU] 95,000
[XB1] 90,000
 

foxbeldin

Member
fwdyuz.gif
 

Hindl

Member
Surely people will stop proclaiming a WiiU comeback if it does less than it did during Zelda Remake month?!

I think the main issue is that MK8's effect will be spread over two months since it released at the end of the reporting period. I'm predicting about ~80K for May, ~100K for June and go back down during July. And people proclaiming a "comeback" need to define it. Sell more than last year? I think that's going to happen? Will the console be "saved"? No, but if MK8 does well and they push their new games, they could make a profit on the console, which is about as good as they'll get.

Edit: Guess I'll post prediction:

[360] 50K
[3DS] 95K
[PS3] 45K
[PS4] 230K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 70K
 

Yoda

Member
[PS4] 215,000
[3DS] 93,000
[XB1] 90,000
[WIU] 98,000
[360] 70,000
[PS3] 32,000
[PSV] 15,000

I think the Watch_Dogs "bump" will be minor; but will go to the PS4. Not sure why they announced the X1 price-cut so soon, but it will have a negative effect on U.S. sales. The Wii-U should get a bump from its dismal #s due to MK.
 

AniHawk

Member
i'm going to base my wii u numbers off of last year's sales, which were 34k. the wii u has actually been up in the us so far this year, so maybe 40k would be a reasonable base to start with. applying aquamarine's math, i'm looking at around 70k for the wii u for the month. it's tough because it also has to take into account any sort of buyers who could have held off purchasing a console day one and then all went in at the same time. it's also a two-day period that's tracked. i think this number is fairly high end. however, for june sales may go as high as 100k with the longer month and positive word of mouth.

with xbox one, it may be that there were a lot of people that held off on purchasing the system until june. so i think it's safer to assume that sales may be pretty low compared to the previous month.

[360] 63k
[3DS] 90k
[PS3] 30k
[PS4] 190k
[WIU] 70k
[XB1] 70k
[PSV] 20k
 

EGOMON

Member
Do you think Sony will make a fuzz if PS4 tripled Xbone numbers this NPD? or just the usual generic "still NA and and worldwide leader etc"
 

EGOMON

Member
Has Sony ever done an official PR release even with PS4 clearly winning NPD's. They do tweet stuff like PS4 was number 1 iirc.

I remember one NPD PS4 came close to doubling it (i think January) and many websites reported as such so i was wondering if tripling will cause similar reactions
 

mrklaw

MrArseFace
Do you think Sony will make a fuzz if PS4 tripled Xbone numbers this NPD? or just the usual generic "still NA and and worldwide leader etc"

Probably not. They may hold off for the 10m reveal

Nintendo might, if they outsell XB1. And that would do more for Sony IMO than any comment Sony might make.
 

Xun

Member
Whilst the Wii U sales for May will be interesting, June will be a lot more insightful into how the system is doing.
 

donny2112

Member
Pachter has full access to NPD data. Pachter's equity research reports never mention VG Chartz. Do you know how much time I think he spends perusing VG Chartz's archives? Little to none.

So when he was preparing that question for Pach Attack, I bet he looked up a couple of games, checked a few numbers, then came to that "generally accurate for legacy numbers" claim. But I refuse to believe for a second that Pachter performed thorough research into Chartz's methodology for legacy numbers.

Let's take a completely random example of a major game...Just Dance 3 Wii sales in 2011.

Pachter may have been talking about 2006 and before data. That data was directly based off of NPD numbers. ioi just took what was posted here, ran it through his adjustor to add ~10% for Canada, and put it on the website. Haven't checked that old data to see if it's still the case, but that's where his site's data came from, at the time.

-------

Anyways,


NeoGAF Aggregate Predictions - May-2014

1. PS4 - 214K
2. 3DS - 91K
3. WIU - 87K
4. XB1 - 83K
5. 360 - 61K
6. PS3 - 37K

201405_histogram_WiiU.png


201405_histogram_XB1.png
 
Pachter may have been talking about 2006 and before data. That data was directly based off of NPD numbers. ioi just took what was posted here, ran it through his adjustor to add ~10% for Canada, and put it on the website. Haven't checked that old data to see if it's still the case, but that's where his site's data came from, at the time.

If that's really the case for the very old data, I wish the NPD Group would run a formal investigation into their operation and order some form of cease and desist.

Leaking a couple of numbers here and there on GAF is pretty harmless...but taking a massive amount of old NPD data, manipulating it slightly, and releasing it publicly to make a profit through ad revenue?

That shouldn't be allowed.
 

ascii42

Member
If that's really the case for the very old data, I wish the NPD Group would run a formal investigation into their operation and order some form of cease and desist.

Leaking a couple of numbers here and there on GAF is pretty harmless...but taking a massive amount of old NPD data, manipulating it slightly, and releasing it publicly to make a profit through ad revenue?

That shouldn't be allowed.

I'm curious about how many people (if any) actually pay for chartzzz data, I just looked and their subscriptions certainly aren't cheap.


As an aside, I know we sometimes have Pachter's numbers in the prediction rankings. Have we ever included Chartz's numbers, for shits and giggles?
 

Donos

Member
I'm curious about how many people (if any) actually pay for chartzzz data, I just looked and their subscriptions certainly aren't cheap.



As an aside, I know we sometimes have Pachter's numbers in the prediction rankings. Have we ever included Chartz's numbers, for shits and giggles?

Is this for real?????? Omg wtf, who pays for that???
 
Is this for real?????? Omg wtf, who pays for that???

Yes it's real. And to answer your question: very naive people.


Real companies that understand the nuances of NPD tracking also understand how Chartz is too fundamentally unreliable to be used as a serious resource.

NPD and GfK is used by Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, EA, Ubisoft, and all the other major players.


For example, I know for a fact (from talking with Nintendo employees) that Nintendo Co., Ltd. does not receive or care about Chartz "data" in any capacity.
They do, however, maintain an archive of NPD data that stretches back multiple decades.


Unfortunately, there are some pretty high-powered institutions (like some third-rate equity research analysts) that take their silly data with more weight than they should.
I'm just personally glad that J.P. Morgan & Chase doesn't fall into their trap.
 
Yes it's real. And to answer your question: very naive people.


Real companies that understand the nuances of NPD tracking also understand how Chartz is too fundamentally unreliable to be used as a serious resource.

NPD and GfK is used by Nintendo, Sony, Microsoft, EA, Ubisoft, and all the other major players.


For example, I know for a fact that Nintendo Co., Ltd. does not receive or care about Chartz "data" in any capacity.
They do, however, maintain an archive of NPD data that stretches back multiple decades.


Unfortunately, there are some pretty high-powered institutions (like some third-rate equity research analysts) that take their silly data with more weight than they should.
I'm just personally glad that J.P. Morgan & Chase doesn't fall into their trap.

I just don't understand how any company anywhere would ever take chartz data as factual. I mean, they claimed the Xbone sold north of 200k consoles last month in the US while Microsoft themselves put out a press release stating they only moved 115k.
 
Square-Enix once used chartz data if I remember right.

Indeed they did. Right here:

DA4SVQs.png


And it was the ONLY time that Square Enix mentioned Chartz.

I don't know why on earth they would do it. I suspect it may have been the culprit of the division at Square Enix that is a little bit gungho about data integrity.
 
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