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June 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes July 15th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
spatenfloot
Member
The biggest problem with that is that MCC is releasing AFTER Destiny which could push those who are hesitating to get a PS4 instead. Plus it seems targeted towards xbox fans who likely already bought the Xbone.
spatenfloot
Member
Really? Where are your links?
Imru al-Qays
Banned
Sony seems to think it is.
Apple TV is no competition. It sold well when it managed 10 million one year. World wide shipments.
Mass Effect
Member
Oh, I see we're going with the "but Sony bankrupt/MS unlimited cash!" narrative.
okay...
But I guess you know more than the CEO of the company...
I don't know why you're so adamant about this.
I am looking at the division. It is not making a profit. We will see soon if Sonys projections are correct but going by past performance I would be surprised if they can make a profit.
Chobel
Member
Source?
ProfessorMoran
Member
The Destiny battle has already been lost, the release date for the collection isn't the best, they needed something that will keep the xbl users on the xbone, maybe rush it out, because the momentum is against them.
Sony quarterly financial statements. Someone posted the info graphics on the last page. I am sorry to break the news to you guys but Sony game division is not doing well. It has not been for a long long time.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
That graphic showed the entire game division projected to make a profit for fiscal year 2014. Fiscal year 2014 means October 2013 - October 2014. It coincides, in other words, with the launch of the PS4.
Past performance? The PS4 is clearly not the PS3. The only real question is what impact the Vita is having financially on Sony.
Chobel
Member
You said "It is not already making a profit", not "It wasn't making a profit last year". I need sources for the first quote.
spatenfloot
Member
I doubt the vita is affecting them much. They don't spend much effort on it and it sells a decent amount of software, especially through the store. Sony execs have stated in the past that they are satisfied with it. It will never generate large profits, but it won't drag them down either.
It has not made a profit this year or last year. Sony has said so. We will see on the 31st if it made a profit the quarter of Apr-Jun.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
This year is fiscal year 2014. This is the only fiscal year the PS4 has been out. Sony projects that their gaming division is going to make a profit this year, fiscal year 2014, the only fiscal year the PS4 has been out.
spatenfloot
Member
Inigo Montoya: You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.
Must be all the AAA first party titles they're making for it.
Fisical years are different bro
All of Sony's current statements have shown the PS4 wildly outselling their initial projections for both hardware, and software. I'm not sure how you can be that skeptical when Sony has already been surprised by how much it is outperforming their expectations...?
spatenfloot
Member
Most people have already posted their predictions and are killing time until the NPD thread is up.
To keep on topic, I wanted to put a higher number for Xbone, but just haven't seen any indications that any boost from the new SKU will last. Also, poor vita.
I was lambasted to no end in a previous thread for stating that the console industry is doing fine and far from its demise as some would like to think, based on NDP numbers how do you guy's feel? Dire in particular seems to think the console industry is destined for failure, yet time and time again I see such positive out looks at where the industry is heading, am I missing something?
my predictions:
[360] 50k
[3DS] 90k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 150k
my predictions:
[360] 50k
[3DS] 90k
[PS3] 40k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 80k
[XB1] 150k
You know what? I think I have been looking at it completely wrong. I was thinking the FY 2013 was for the last quarter and it is not. Ok, I feel stupid. Will have to wait for the next quarter statement to see what the quarters look like.
BananaSprinkles
Banned
Unless I'm reading the information here wrong, the gaming division for Sony was profitable for FY 2012.
spatenfloot
Member
There is no imminent demise IMO, just a possible contraction from last gen due to mobile/smartphones. Depending on how next holiday season goes, we should be able to make a better assessment.
Yoda
Member
Some people like to assert the false equivalency that if the market is not growing it is thus doomed. They will then cite a "gaming market" like mobile which is growing and conclude all of the production will flow in that direction. As stated above this is a false equivalency because it treats the situation as a binary choice when it is far from it. The console market and the mobile market target different demographics and fill different demand. The demand for console or "core" gaming experience has been around for decades and will continue to be around for decades. Despite what you hear from industry sages, mobile will never be able to offer a similar experience at the same price-point as console/PC gaming.
Jimmyfenix
Member
It will be a delight kev!
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Because sales have been falling for years, which people attrributed to generational fatigue that would all go away when the PS4 / Xbone arrived. But that has not happened.
As Opiate pointed out in another thread, mobile gaming offers a 'good enough' experience alternative handhelds for some (including the self-proclaimed 'core gamer'), it is not unreasonable to expect it offers a 'good enough' experience to a dedicated gaming platform to others.
Yoda
Member
Oh I agree they aren't mutually exclusive, but that doesn't mean they are fully inclusive either.
Imru al-Qays
Banned
It has happened, though. The core console market, represented by the PS4 + Xbone, is seeing very healthy sales numbers. The Wii U isn't, but that's the slice of the market where the casual bubble burst towards the end of the seventh generation.
I'm not sure that's a reasonable expectation at all. Mobile devices and handheld consoles have the same use case: you carry them around with you as you go about your day. Everyone owns a mobile device for calling, texting, email, etc, and then they use those devices to play games. This causes people to not see the point in buying handhelds anymore, since handhelds offer no advantages over the mobile devices they already own (except physical controls and game selection) and have plenty of disadvantages.
Mobile devices and home consoles have totally different use cases, and it is physically impossible for a mobile device to ever reach the performance per dollar ratio of a dedicated gaming console.
"Good enough" means something very different when you're talking about plugging a machine into your HDTV and gaming on the couch. If "good enough" hardware were enough to pose a serious threat to home console sales that would have already happened, since everyone has owned a computer capable of playing rudimentary mobile-style games for years and years at this point.
ethomaz
Banned
Sony disagree but who is Sony btw?
Disaster Nebraska
Banned
Part of that's because the economy is still recovering and people don't have as much money to blow. Part of it is because current consoles are just too dang expensive (for the public). DS launched at $150 and quickly dropped to $130 with the first hardware revision. 3DS XL is $200 and the standard 3DS is $170 or something like that...in a WORSE economy. Not to mention, didn't it launch at $250? Yikes. Yeah, yeah, there's the 2DS that launched 2 years later, but it looks like crap and I don't know if Nintendo even advertises that it exists.
Wii was the same way. Launched at $250 including Wii Sports which was quite a robust game for what they were trying to do. Then dropped to $200 a few years later.
IMO, the shift to mobiles isn't strictly because it's good enough and people don't care to get anything better. It's because you're gonna get a phone anyway, and if someone can't afford a dedicated system, a phone is "good enough".
That said, I firmly believe there's a place for premium hardware. People will pay money for something if they perceive it is a quality piece of tech. If $400 tablets can still sell (and tablets are not nearly as necessary as a smartphone, nor as widespread) then a dedicated gaming platform selling for less than half the price can certainly sell, too.
Mobile gaming also lacks the marketing, the brand recognition (though that is changing), and the overall polish of a dedicated machine. As I said above, there is a place for dedicated hardware because there will always be people - and a lot of 'em - who would rather pay good money for a machine that does its job very well than to do everything on a generalized machine. It is why - for instance - that people don't care about Ford's integrated panel technology since they can do that stuff already on their phone and would rather just have a reliable car (and that's why Ford's sales are lagging compared to other auto manufacturers).
SwiftDeath
Member
Well this thread took quite the turn
ethomaz
Banned
The predictions threads started to be fun since XB1/PS4 releases... all pre-NPD is happening here
SwiftDeath
Member
The predictions threads started to be fun since XB1/PS4 releases... all pre-NPD is happening here
Well US console sales make up the largest portion of console sales in the world with Japans irrelevance almost complete. Europe is probably as important or close to it but we get no real information on a regular schedule.
Basically while we may get more information from Media Creates threads, NPD threads are far more important now to gauge the health of the console market and of the retail market for videogames. Also I guess with the new consoles comes strong emotions when some don't do too well.
360's shortages ended in April 2006.
Yeah with this going on in the predictions thread, the real NPD thread is going to be something else. o.o
theprodigy
Member
well this is going to be interesting, I bet more tears will be shed over these results than there were at Evo today
[360] 70k
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 45k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 150k
following a fairly simple rule that you can multiply the weekly average of may by 5 and arrive at a pretty close estimate. the wii u and the xb1 are the only wrenches in that plan. xb1 would be about 96k going by that logic, but i'll give the benefit of the doubt and assume about 50k purchases were made from people buying at a lower price point or simply because they had waited from may. it's basically the weekly average from april.
the wii u would be right around its weekly average for the year so far (14k-15k), which has been fairly steady despite the spike in february, so it's possible it's slightly low or slightly high, depending on how popular mario kart 8 really was.
[3DS] 120k
[PS3] 45k
[PS4] 250k
[WIU] 75k
[XB1] 150k
following a fairly simple rule that you can multiply the weekly average of may by 5 and arrive at a pretty close estimate. the wii u and the xb1 are the only wrenches in that plan. xb1 would be about 96k going by that logic, but i'll give the benefit of the doubt and assume about 50k purchases were made from people buying at a lower price point or simply because they had waited from may. it's basically the weekly average from april.
the wii u would be right around its weekly average for the year so far (14k-15k), which has been fairly steady despite the spike in february, so it's possible it's slightly low or slightly high, depending on how popular mario kart 8 really was.
Aquamarine
Member
Chartzzzzz's laughable predictions (under the guise of "sales numbers") are now up:
PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758
PSV - 18,082
Wii - 15,693
PSP - 2,659
Last time their "numberz" were off by quite a significant margin (the average GAFfer did much better than them).
Last month's prediction results:
Units: #141 @ 146,000 units off = 140 GAFfers did a better job than them, 21 GAFfers did worse than them
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts. = 127 GAFfers did a better job than them, 34 GAFfers did worse than them
I'm looking forward to seeing how horribly wrong they are this time around.
PS4 - 198,273
XOne - 183,251
3DS - 157,125
WiiU - 135,517
X360 - 76,502
PS3 - 39,758
PSV - 18,082
Wii - 15,693
PSP - 2,659
Last time their "numberz" were off by quite a significant margin (the average GAFfer did much better than them).
Last month's prediction results:
Units: #141 @ 146,000 units off = 140 GAFfers did a better job than them, 21 GAFfers did worse than them
Points: #128 @ 80.25 pts. = 127 GAFfers did a better job than them, 34 GAFfers did worse than them
I'm looking forward to seeing how horribly wrong they are this time around.
ps4 sales - significantly down from may
xb1 sales - significantly up from may
3ds sales - significantly up from may
wii u sales - significantly up from may
xbox 360 sales - up from may
ps3 sales - down from may
vita sales - significantly down from may
i mean they may be in the ballpark for vita because who knows what's going on there, and they're probably okay with their 360 guesses, but good lord.
El-Pistolero
Member
Sony is down...I repeat : Sony is down!
RealityPales
Member
Talked to my local GameStop in downtown Chicago.
It's a small litmus test compared to the entirety of the US, but they told me the pricedrop hasn't helped the XBO all that much.
They also said TitanFall wasn't moving units back in March.
As such, I'm inclined to presume PS4 will outsell XBO in June.
Should be interesting to see though.
It's a small litmus test compared to the entirety of the US, but they told me the pricedrop hasn't helped the XBO all that much.
They also said TitanFall wasn't moving units back in March.
As such, I'm inclined to presume PS4 will outsell XBO in June.
Should be interesting to see though.
theprodigy
Member
PS4-lol
Xbox One-maybe
3DS-probably too high
Wii U-too high
360-might work
PS3-probably a bit too low, but it's a small number to begin with
Vita-maybe
Wii/PSP-nobody cares
probably do better than last time with all the incomplete predictions/PS4 lowballing from people in this thread, but lolchartz
SwiftDeath
Member
I needed a good laugh