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July 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes August 12th

M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
Quoting myself from the NPD June thread, since I suppose it could be useful

Mpl90 said:
June to July prospects

MOM changes

360 PS3 Wii Wii U
0.74 1.606* 1.11 0.69
0.86 0.554** 0.83
0.93* 0.74 0.7
0.84 0.7 0.6
0.98 1.865 0.7
0.546 0.73 0.74
0.79 0.73 0.66
0.764

Weekly weeks changes

360 PS3 Wii Wii U
0.93 2* 1.39 0.863
1.073 0.693** 1.04
1.164* 0.924 0.874
1.053 0.88 0.75
1.227 0.67 0.87
0.683 0.897 0.92
0.987 0.914 0.825
0.955

360* = Xbox 360 20 Gig Price Drop (349$-299$)
PS3*= PS3 60 Gig Price Drop (599$-499$)
PS3**= the month after MGS4
Click to expand...
 
Z

z0m3le

Banned
[PS4] - 230K
[XB1] - 120k
[3DS] - 120k
[WIU] - 105k
[360] - 50k
[PS3] - 33k

I think PS4 is going to have a slight bump WoW thanks to The Last of US showing up at the end.

XB1 will probably have a slight fall off from the averages of May & June combined thanks to the "price drop" stabilizing a bit.

Wii U has been selling decently on Amazon, though I did have a slight drop off from june, Mario Kart 8 stayed in the top 10 on Amazon the entire month afaik and the console remained fairly close to XB1's new $399 sku despite not being sold directly by Amazon.
 
M

Mpl90

Two copies sold? That's not a bomb guys, stop trolling!!!
[360] 47,000
[3DS] 124,000
[PS3] 30,000
[PS4] 212,000
[WIU] 95,000
[XB1] 110,000
 
G

Graphics Horse

Member
[PS4] 199K
[XB1] 124K
[3DS] 111K
[360] 48K
[WIU] 99K
[PS3] 31K

Not much room for zany guesses this month.
XB1 number derived from subtracting presumed delayed sales when the kinectless version was announced, before adjusting from 5-4 weeks.
WIU is harder to judge, but I'm guessing that June's huge increase over July means it must have only tapered off very slowly across last month, so should still put up decent weekly numbers. But there's a risk that all the extra sales came in when #LuigiDeathStare was at its peak.
 
T

Ty4on

Member
[360] 50K
[3DS] 100K
[PS3] 30K
[PS4] 220K
[WIU] 80K
[XB1] 130K

Tried math. I'm on vacation and got too tired when I tried to work out the trends from previous years. Mostly just last week *(4/5) :p

Edit: Minus 10k for PS4 because Destiny beta last month. 200k is more inline with regular PS4 sales (and will probably end up being more correct), but the rationale is again Destiny :p

Edit 2: 358K is possible for PS4? o_O
Maybe I'll go back to my original prediction of 220k...
 
T

Ty4on

Member
donny2112 said:
That has been the winning strategy for July in at least one year, since I've been participating in predictions here!
Click to expand...

Yeah, I love the last two months' XB1 sales because if you add May and June and divide by 9 you get similar weekly numbers to April. Sales are usually more consistent than it seems, but it will be much harder this month with everyone predicting similar numbers.
 
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