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[theprodigy]

Brawl did 2.7 Million in just the US in its opening month, in March.

That was the Wii, this is the Wii U.

also I assume we are not including the 3DS version in this

edit: even then, Halo 3 managed to hit 3.3 million on its launch month in September, even if it didn't outsell it LTD in the end

 

[Mory Dunz]

Hahaha, that's not a bad idea in all honesty.
I think some fans really are waiting for the WiiU's "Nintendogs + Brain Age combo revival" moment, and that's just not a logical thing to hope for at this point in time.



Yoshi has the potential to build momentum (like DKC), but that really depends on how Nintendo is going to handle it's marketing and branding; I think Cap Toad and Xenoblade can go either way really.
Splatoon has the potential ("AAA", new/unique premise, kid/family/casual appeal, online multiplayer focus, etc.) like most new IPs to do really well, but it's quite likely that this hamstrung console will kill this possible franchise in it's crib.
Mario Maker could be big depending on how it turns out, and how much power Nintendo is putting behind it in terms of marketing and branding.
But...yeah...other than that there aren't many true heavy hitters left for them to roll out. Unless I'm missing something of course.

Hm, you may be right. Yoshi could be a slow burner and get there. It'd help if Italy bought 400K copies too . (Yoshi 3DS charted number 1-4 there for a long time for some reason)

I'd forgotten about Splatoon and Mario Maker.
For Splatoon...simply, if they advertise it a lot on Nickelodeon (and maybe even play with the Nick logo), I think it can.

It can also easly be another W101 if they don't advertise it at all.
I have doubts about Mario Maker.

Ah, Bayo 2. Forgot about that too. Depending on the west, it could trot to 1 million if it hads some ads but I'm not optimistic.

 

[Squalor]

Sony and Naughty Dog:

 

[Compbros]

You really think that will outsell Smash Bros for Wii U or is a stronger system seller than Smash?

Didn't Smash outsell Halo 3?

I honestly do, I would've thought the same for Mario Kart or one of the various Super Mario games that were released and yet XBO still outsold it. THE Microsoft game is getting the "HD collection" treatment as well as several enhancements. Then you also have to think that its November is bolstered by whatever third-party titles (Call of Duty and Creed) come out that month. Smash will move a lot of units, I just don't think it'll outdo XBO.


Didn't Smash release a couple years after the Wii was out? By that time the Wii had probably 3x (if not more) units sold than the Wii-U so far.

 

[SwiftDeath]

If Shinra thinks it, it is likely true.

True enough

 

[icespide]

Damnit

what's wrong guy?

 

[Bgamer90]

If Titanfall can't do it, MCC won't.

If a new IP that released in March can't do it, then a game that's part of an existing popular franchise that releases during the Holiday season won't?

 

[udivision]

Yeah, I think TP had an impact, but the situation seems a lot different now. Not being a launch title, and on unattractive hardware, etc.

For Smash? I'd need to see other Smash openings, but I still say it's impossible. It'd have to release around Christmas WW, have a bundle WW, and be the equivalent of $50-100 cheaper with a just announced pricecut WW. And the 3DS version to not exist...

It'd be great to wrong though.

Smash 3DS is going to hurt Smash Wii U in Japan so much. Maybe in the long run it won't matter, but I think it's existence alone will make sure Smash Wii U won't outpace MK8 globally in it's first months.

 

[Squalor]

what's wrong guy?

Maybe he was the one guy who expected Microsoft to win July?

 

[Markitron]

Brawl did 2.7 Million in just the US in its opening month, in March.

It can't be ignored that Brawl was released on one of the biggest selling consoles of all time, the next one will be releasing on a console on the opposite end of the scale.

 

[darkstar0155]

Yeah, I think TP had an impact, but the situation seems a lot different now. Not being a launch title, and on unattractive hardware, etc.

For Smash? I'd need to see other Smash openings, but I still say it's impossible. It'd have to release around Christmas WW, have a bundle WW, and be the equivalent of $50-100 cheaper with a just announced pricecut WW. And the 3DS version to not exist...

It'd be great to wrong though.

I think for zelda it will also depend on the price of the system at that time, if say its dropped down to 200/250 by holiday 2015 (which is probably when zelda comes out, and it would be crazy if the system didnt have a price drop by then), i could see a lot of the people who hadnt bought one yet finally dropping since they would know they have a huge back catolog, plus a new zelda.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

If Shinra thinks it, it is likely true.

But if I do you say "That's not math." and "Where did you say you got your doctorate?"

Standards you guys expect are just way too much for any half-assed doom crying prophet to compete with. So many "facts" "realities" "truths". I feel my percentages from the heart.

No brain necessary.

 

[Y2Kev]

Congrats to Corrine Yu! I think she gets a special congratulations after that random jr showed up trashing her for no reason. So I will give her a special congrats.

 

[vinnygambini]

3 hours later and yet only Nintendo numbers ;.;

Needs some pies

 

[Coulomb_Barrier]

Hmm but I haven't seen any objective evidence that suggests the surge in indie revenue on consoles is making up for the declining retail sales so to me it's a nice theory that I don't particularly subscribe to but each their own?

The software drop YoY is something I didn't expect and the attach ratio of 3 for the PS4 must also be concerning. I know that there is time to pick it up but it seems like the trend is to for people to buy less games. Add in that most titles for this gen are more expensive, especially compared to last year end of gen, and the number of software units seems to have hit a sharp decline. Last year was a software wasteland, how can this year be worse.

Digital might pick up some of the slack but it still is a troubling trend.

This is who I was referring to SwiftDeath btw and I have seen a few others with this argument. If this opinion is based on NPD software figures, which doesn't track digital revenue, then it is highly flawed surely, because generally, everyone in the industry is predicting digital revenue to increase massively each year. With a quick search (and this perhaps contradicts my point about indie digital revenue growing faster than AAAA title digital revenue), EA's Peter Moore expects digital revenues to overtake physical revenues in 2 YEARS.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...al-revenues-to-overtake-physical-in-two-years

So his opinion must be based off data that shows digital revenues are increasing year-to-year massively whilst retail is declining (at what rate it's hard to know).

So basically, my point is that it is highly flawed to use NPD software sales as evidence of a declining console industry when NPD don't track digital. In this month's NPD results, for example, a 15% decline in retail software sales could be made up and then some by growth in digital revenue's yoy growth.

What do people think? Have I totally missed something obvious in this or what?

 

[Compbros]

I really want a Quantic Dream collection.

 

[Ty4on]

I hate going to bed when I know numbers are right around the corner. I hope I can find the right number and finally crack a beer.

Edit:

3 hours later and yet only Nintendo numbers ;.;

Needs some pies

We have some rough PS4+XB1 numbers knowing they did >384K

 

[BigDug13]

If a new IP that released in March can't do it, then a game that's part of an existing popular franchise that releases during the Holiday season won't?

I think the implication is that the bulk of excited Halo fans have mostly already bought an XBO.

 

[Jimmyfenix]

My brain hurts now

 

[sörine]

Remember, we are talking about a game for the Wii U.

Smash on the Wii did well but at the same time, the Wii sold almost triple to what the Xbox 360 sold during some months last gen -- Very large user base helped.

Userbase helped Smash MUCH less than it did other franchises like Kart or Mario. The core audience is sizable and dedicated, I think the bigger stumbling block to Smash U is that an almost identical 3DS version is releasing 1-2 months earlier.

 

[Squalor]

3 hours later and yet only Nintendo numbers ;.;

Needs some pies

 

[Chobel]

If a new IP that released in March can't do it, then a game that's part of an existing popular franchise that releases during the Holiday season won't?

A remaster of popular franchise, it will probably sell less than Titanfall.

If MS win Nov, it's probably going to be because of CoD and not MCC.

 

[Rebel Leader]

The Pi will never end

 

[Anth0ny]

I'm thinking the Xbox One should at least do 500K in November. I don't think the Wii U will even get to half of that for that month (even with Smash Bros.). We'll see though.

Well Wii U did 220k last November with 3D World. Smash Bros is a much bigger system seller than 3D Mario. Combine that with Mario Kart existing (it'll get a holiday bump for sure), and I think it will hit 300k at least. November 2014 will probably be the biggest hardware month in Wii U's life outside of launch month (again, assuming Smash drops).

You never know. The GTA V bundle got the PS3 to outsell the 360 for the first time in years, and even the original Xbox had months where it outsold the PS2.

That's true. Maybe the $149 Destiny 3 Xbone bundle in September 2019 will outsell PS4 for the first time this gen lol

What months did Xbox outsell PS2? Halo months, I'm guessing? I don't think current Halo, or any Microsoft exclusive, has the power that Halo 1, 2 or 3 had when it comes to moving hardware.

I mean, look at Titanfall month. Look at price drop month. Xbone was supposed to win those months FREE.

 

[SmokyDave]

I hate going to bed when I know numbers are right around the corner. I hope I can find the right number and finally crack a beer.

It's ten to three in the morning where I am. I spent the last two hours drinking beer and celebrating a number that I don't even know.

....I'm ok with this. It's NPD time.

 

[hodayathink]

I read that...and instantly lost any other interest in this NPD. Why did you have to remind me.

SUCKS SO MUCH.

Don't blame EA for that. Blame the NCAA (and Ed O'Bannen).

 

[Jimmyfenix]

Congrats to Corrine Yu! I think she gets a special congratulations after that random jr showed up trashing her for no reason. So I will give her a special congrats.

Totally!

 

[Phlebas]

Congrats to Corrine Yu! I think she gets a special congratulations after that random jr showed up trashing her for no reason. So I will give her a special congrats.

When was this?

 

[Evenflow]

It can't be ignored that Brawl was released on one of the biggest selling consoles of all time, the next one will be releasing on a console on the opposite end of the scale.

This is true. However we shouldn't discount smash bros system selling ability. Wii went from around 300k that feb to 700k that March when Smash launched.

 

[SwiftDeath]

This is who I was referring to SwiftDeath btw and I have seen a few others with this argument. If this opinion is based on NPD software figures, which doesn't track digital revenue, then it is highly flawed surely, because generally, everyone in the industry is predicting digital revenue to increase massively each year. With a quick search (and this perhaps contradicts my point about indie digital revenue growing faster than AAAA title digital revenue), EA's Peter Moore expects digital revenues to overtake physical revenues in 2 YEARS.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articl...al-revenues-to-overtake-physical-in-two-years

So his opinion must be based off data that shows digital revenues are increasing year-to-year massively whilst retail is declining (at what rate it's hard to know).

So basically, my point is that it is highly flawed to use NPD software sales as evidence of a declining console industry when NPD don't track digital. In this month's NPD results, for example, a 15% decline in retail software sales could be made up and then some by growth in digital revenue's yoy growth.

What do people think? Have I totally missed something obvious in this or what?

Wait are we then including DLC and microtransactions in this digital revenue? Because if we are I could totally see that. I thought we were only talking about game/software sales though

 

[stryke]

Congrats to Corrine Yu! I think she gets a special congratulations after that random jr showed up trashing her for no reason. So I will give her a special congrats.

lol I remember that. That was fucking random...

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Congrats to Corrine Yu! I think she gets a special congratulations after that random jr showed up trashing her for no reason. So I will give her a special congrats.

I knew it!

You're just a big teddy bear! Aren't you Y2Kev?

*pokes the belly*

 

[Mory Dunz]

I think for zelda it will also depend on the price of the system at that time, if say its dropped down to 200/250 by holiday 2015 (which is probably when zelda comes out, and it would be crazy if the system didnt have a price drop by then), i could see a lot of the people who hadnt bought one yet finally dropping since they would know they have a huge back catolog, plus a new zelda.

Zelda is the one that has no chance.

Honestly, I think Zelda will have a tough time passing 3-ish million WW. Especially if Japan still can't remember who Zelda even is.

For it to sell 2 million in the first week? I can't see it.

 

[darkstar0155]

It can't be ignored that Brawl was released on one of the biggest selling consoles of all time, the next one will be releasing on a console on the opposite end of the scale.

true, but i would think the hardcore SB players/sales wont be affected too much by userbase, that crowd is crazy about the game and initial sales will be somewhat similiar

 

[Coldnoodle]

Userbase helped Smash MUCH less than it did other franchises like Kart or Mario. The core audience is sizable and dedicated, I think the bigger stumbling block to Smash U is that an almost identical 3DS version is releasing 1-2 months earlier.

Yeah, seems that there's a lot of overlap between Nintendo platforms these days.

 

[Thunder Monkey]

Zelda is the one that has no chance.

Honestly, I think Zelda will have a tough time passing 3-ish million WW. Especially if Japan still can't remember who Zelda even who is.

For it to sell 2 million in the first week? I can't see it.

Yeah. Simply put, that isn't happening.

 

[Bundy]

§ PlayStation 4 was #1 in sales for the seventh consecutive month and remains the cumulative leader for next generation game consoles.

Expected and amazing. Gap getting bigger and bigger.

§ PlayStation 4 games accounted for more than half of total next generation software sales.

More than half? Just.... WOW!

§ PlayStation 4 led the month for next generation software sales by a considerable margin, with The Last of Us Remastered taking the #1 spot.

All I know is that according to my report, Xbox sold more consoles than everyone else.

 

[theprodigy]

This is true. However we shouldn't discount smash bros system selling ability. Wii went from around 300k that feb to 700k that March when Smash launched.

If you think the bumps for the Wii back then was caused by Brawl as opposed to having supply, I've got news for you....

Userbase helped Smash MUCH less than it did other franchises like Kart or Mario. The core audience is sizable and dedicated, I think the bigger stumbling block to Smash U is that an almost identical 3DS version is releasing 1-2 months earlier.

just because it will be affected LESS doesn't mean it won't have a rather significant effect, Smash U isn't even going to be reaching Melee most likely

 

[SDCowboy]

And PS4 or Xbone estimates yet?

 

[vinnygambini]

 

[Mory Dunz]

Userbase helped Smash MUCH less than it did other franchises like Kart or Mario. The core audience is sizable and dedicated, I think the bigger stumbling block to Smash U is that an almost identical 3DS version is releasing 1-2 months earlier.

This has me thinking about what the Wii U's adventure/story mode will be. They'll probably reveal it after the 3DS version is out IMO. Get the double dippers.

 

[Ty4on]

It's ten to three in the morning where I am. I spent the last two hours drinking beer and celebrating a number that I don't even know.

....I'm ok with this. It's NPD time.

I was thinking about it, but it was 2am back then for me :/ (CEST)

I have stayed up till 6 one NPD where I got every number and enjoyed every page, but it also ruined the next day.

 

[Usobuko]

I hope One Piece did well but I have not bought my copy yet.

 

[Markitron]

true, but i would think the hardcore SB players/sales wont be affected too much by userbase, that crowd is crazy about the game and initial sales will be somewhat similiar

My post was more in the context of the bump to system sales. I completely agree with you, I think Smash Bro's will sell like crazy that month. In fact I think only CoD will sell more

 

[darkstar0155]

Zelda is the one that has no chance.

Honestly, I think Zelda will have a tough time passing 3-ish million WW. Especially if Japan still can't remember who Zelda even who is.

For it to sell 2 million in the first week? I can't see it.

I can maybe (huge maybe) see it selling close to that if it releases right around black friday, but MK didnt do 2mil in its first week, it did like what, 800Kish? I think zelda, in the holiday of 2015, could beat that without too much issue.

 

[ArchedThunder]

I'm fairly confident I underestimated for XB1 now

It's probably at least 150k assuming Shinra's extrapolation of XB1+PS4 is close to accurate



They're probably down WoW for July I would assume

Wait, what were Shinra's numbers?

 

[Dragonborn]

If a new IP that released in March can't do it, then a game that's part of an existing popular franchise that releases during the Holiday season won't?

It's a remaster though. You're giving it too much credit. The case can be made for TLOU since the 360 dominated NA last gen and thus it's possible many of those former 360 owners are shifting to PS4.

Halo though? Everyone who wanted Halo got it last gen. It'll sell consoles to the very core Halo audience who are actually nostalgic for the old days. The casual mainstream that make Halo huge likely won't care too much, to them the newer games will be more appealing.

If the CoD bundle was $399 I'd say the X1 has a chance but it's not and I don't think it'll win November

 

[sinseers]

MS's best chance at taking #1 is in November. If they can't win that month with FOUR Halo games for the price of one that also comes with Halo 5 beta, the race may be pretty much over.

It pretty much is a wrap for MS trying to claim the top spot this gen. Not that I feel good or bad about it in any way. It's just that's the way things are shaping up. If they feel like giving it another go next gen then go for it, if not....then oh well...

 

[HORRORSHØW]

All I know is that according to my report, Xbox sold more consoles than everyone else.

 

[JustinBbad]

Love NPD threads. Now for the numbers.