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Media Create Sales: Week 32, 2014 (Aug 04 - Aug 10)

jeremy1456

Junior Member
How many more weeks do you guys think it will take for the Wii U to start rgularly outselling the Vita on a weekly basis?
 
How many more weeks do you guys think it will take for the Wii U to start rgularly outselling the Vita on a weekly basis?

Er...never? I mean I'm sure it will this holiday and probably post holiday when Smash will still have some legs, but I'm not sure why you would think it would ever regularly outsell it.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
Er...never? I mean I'm sure it will this holiday and probably post holiday when Smash will still have some legs, but I'm not sure why you would think it would ever regularly outsell it.

I think there's a definite chance especially as the Vita's otaku market saturates.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
I feel it depends on what the next wave of Vita games looks like.

We don't have much vision past the holiday right now.
 
I think there's a definite chance especially as the Vita's otaku market saturates.

And you don't think Nintendo's console audience will saturate? Let's not forget before the Wii the Gamecube did not sell well and the console market has declined a lot from even then.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Sony implied they're not doing too much directly with the Vita at TGS (and I assume that means going forward it will be a reduced effort), so we potentially be looking at comparing Vita momentum with third parties versus what remains of Nintendo's first party line-up.

Honesty I wouldn't be shocked if both start to taper off even more in 2015.
 
sörine;125819912 said:
I expect Wii U vs Vita to look a lot like Wii vs PSP did. Probably like 3-4m vs 6-7m in the end for each.

so basically Wii U vs Vita is Wii vs PSP with 2/3 of their install bases taken out

.......and thinking about it, the Wii sort of masked the decline of consoles last gen in Japan, because even with it it's still short of matching 6th gen
of course now with Wii U plummeting down from those highs and lolPS4, it looks even worse
 
Sony implied they're not doing too much directly with the Vita at TGS (and I assume that means going forward it will be a reduced effort), so we potentially be looking at comparing Vita momentum with third parties versus what remains of Nintendo's first party line-up.

Honesty I wouldn't be shocked if both start to taper off even more in 2015.

Right, I expect this is the best year both systems will see. The problem with the rest of Nintendo's first party lineup is that all of it besides Kirby looks like stuff that couldn't even pass 250k. I also expect Smash to have a highly diminished effect on the Wii U with the 3DS version releasing and will probably be near the 2 million mark before Smash Wii U even launches.
 
Right, I expect this is the best year both systems will see. The problem with the rest of Nintendo's first party lineup is that all of it besides Kirby looks like stuff that couldn't even pass 250k. I also expect Smash to have a highly diminished effect on the Wii U with the 3DS version releasing and will probably be near the 2 million mark before Smash Wii U even launches.

I could see Mario maker selling very very well
 
Right, I expect this is the best year both systems will see. The problem with the rest of Nintendo's first party lineup is that all of it besides Kirby looks like stuff that couldn't even pass 250k. I also expect Smash to have a highly diminished effect on the Wii U with the 3DS version releasing and will probably be near the 2 million mark before Smash Wii U even launches.

Even Smash? Granted the Comgnet numbers are bleak, but I wonder if that's due to the 3DS version taking the attention?

Yoshi maybe, but New Island was a dud so far (kinda deserved it). X I do see that being pretty unlikely due to Xenoblade not doing that.
 
Even Smash? Granted the Comgnet numbers are bleak, but I wonder if that's due to the 3DS version taking the attention?

Yoshi maybe, but New Island was a dud so far (kinda deserved it). X I do see that being pretty unlikely due to Xenoblade not doing that.

Sorry I was speaking about 2015 releases.

I could see Mario maker selling very very well

In Japan? We'll see, but without a lot more content than they are letting on I don't really see it. I think it would be much more popular on 3DS and probably should have had a 3DS version.
 

sörine

Banned
Sony implied they're not doing too much directly with the Vita at TGS (and I assume that means going forward it will be a reduced effort), so we potentially be looking at comparing Vita momentum with third parties versus what remains of Nintendo's first party line-up.

Honesty I wouldn't be shocked if both start to taper off even more in 2015.
Most of the major 3rd parties aren't doing much with Vita either. It's basically Namco Bandai, Tecmo Koei, Sega and then small/niche publishers like Falcom, NIS, etc.

Actually it reminds me a little bit of Saturn (which had Capcom, SNK, Tecmo and a lot of niche 3rd party support) versus N64 (which was essentially just Nintendo), although less directly competitive for obvious reasons. Saturn also had much stronger 1st party support and N64 (sadly) managed stronger 3rd party support so it isn't a perfect match up by any means.
 
Sorry I was speaking about 2015 releases.



In Japan? We'll see, but without a lot more content than they are letting on I don't really see it. I think it would be much more popular on 3DS and probably should have had a 3DS version.

the fact that its not coming til 2015 makes me think there's gonna be a hell of a lot more to it than we've seen so far
 

Eolz

Member
the fact that its not coming til 2015 makes me think there's gonna be a hell of a lot more to it than we've seen so far

Tezuka already said he wanted to include more stuff (tilesets, music, other mario paint stuff, etc) and that they were working on it, but i don't really see this "game" becoming a phenomenon tbh.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Okay there's a fair amount of mobile news I have to post so I might do a bit of double posting depending on how fast the responses are. The second part of this will take a bit to type up though.

First up, Capcom's earnings Q&A is up. Here are the notable bits.

http://www.capcom.co.jp/ir/english/data/pdf/explanation/2014/1st/explanation_2014_1st_02.pdf

Monster Hunter Explore explanation:

Capcom said:
[You have announced "Monster Hunter Explorer” today. How does it actually differ from "Monster Hunter Smart”?

One can play this title on Android in addition to iOS. Four players can cooperatively play in real time. Furthermore, several features such as the method of play, the manner of operation have also been improved. The game is being re-developed as a fresh title.

They've completed their internal mobile restructure:

Q. Have the changes you have instituted in the mobile game development organization started to produce results?

A. We completed organizational restructuring at the end of the previous fiscal year. Now, game development is being carried out under the new organization. Moreover, since issues related to individual projects have been clarified I believe that we now have a forward-looking development environment

They imply they're interested in making more f2p games for home consoles:

Please explain your position on free-to-play home video games (basically free, items are chargeable).

There is little precedent when it comes to free-to-play home video games. I believe "deep down”, which we are in the process of developing, is an interesting title. Since this will be a new free-to-play title, it will increase the opportunities for signing up more users on more platforms. I see free-to-play games as a business model worthy of exploration.

They're on track to achieve their mobile income goals so far this year:

Please provide a breakdown of the 1.4 billion yen in mobile content sub-segment sales.

A breakdown of 3 months sales shows that the Capcom brand contributed 70% while the Beeline brand accounted for 30%. At present, the Capcom brand generates most of the operating income. We are on track to achieve the operating income target. I expect the ratio of the Capcom brand to the Beeline brand to be 6:4 in the current fiscal year.

Other info:
-They're ahead of schedule on switching to internal development.
-They don't expect operations in the rest of Asia to be a significant contributor this fiscal year, but for it to steadily grow.
-They're focusing on reducing marketing expenses.
-They were still planning TGS as of this call and didn't commit to announcing new games there, but didn't say they weren't either.
 
Tezuka already said he wanted to include more stuff (tilesets, music, other mario paint stuff, etc) and that they were working on it, but i don't really see this "game" becoming a phenomenon tbh.

They should call it Mario Paint: Maker or Mario Paint: Mario Maker or something, just use the name. :p
 
Comgnet Launch Points x Media Create

Hyrule Warriors -------- 127pt (???)
Wind Waker HD ------- 56pt (30.264)

I'm gonna guess around 70k.
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Okay, so Serkan Toto put up an excellent article about the upcoming native-app (as in not browser based) mobile games in Japan that he sees as larger potential titles (and includes some he thinks won't be, but feels are still the flagships from the companies listed).

I'm going to summarize some of this here, but I suggest giving a click if you like this kind of coverage since almost no one writes it in English at this point, and he has a lot of details at the link I'm not pasting over.

Article: http://www.serkantoto.com/2014/08/15/japanese-mobile-game-releases/

DeNA:

Final Fantasy Record Keeper (iOS / Android, RPG, Summer 2014)
-This is DeNA and Square Enix's latest collaboration. Their most successful one was Final Fantasy Air Brigade.
-It uses traditional SNES era sprites starring the main characters across the whole series and is some kind of combat game.
-Website: https://ffrk.jp/
-Thread with screens: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=121396183&postcount=9

GREE:

Lost Land Tactics (iOS/Android, Strategy, August 25, 2014)
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LzYq3NdCE8M
-Preview article: http://www.serkantoto.com/2014/04/24/lost-land-tactics-gree/
-It's a 5v5 realtime strategy RPG with real time multiplayer. It's a bit unusual for a social game. It of course still has cards you collect and level up to summon troops and stuff.

Final Fantasy Artniks Dive (iOS/Android, RPG, summer 2014)
-"Players can explore large maps, navigate their parties through dungeons, and battle monsters in turn-based battles." It also has a job system and various social game systems that you'd expect like cards you can power up things with and stuff.
-We had a thread about it here with screens and stuff: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=846698

Cross Summoner (iOS/Android, RPG, Summer 2014)
-At cursory glance it reminds me of Brave Frontier. The ridiculous combo numbers and explosive effects kind of remind me of Nippon Ichi.
-It seems to have story sections between the combat.
-It already has a global release planned.
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXcWHcvAvyY

LINE:

LINE Poko Poko (iOS/Android, match 3 puzzle game, Summer 2014)
-This is a match 3 game where the only notable thing about it is it stars the characters from LINE Pokopang, a game with 37 million downloads.
-Well, that and all of LINE's games are gigantic hits in part due to being distributed throught the LINE messenger service.

CyberAgent:

Grimoire – Shiritsu Grimoire Mahou Gakuen (iOS/Android, Card Battling, August 2014)
-This is a competitor for School Idol Live from KLab or School Girl Strikers from Square Enix.
-It stars lolis and works like every other card battling game. It has tons of voice acting.

Sugoroku Monsters (iOS/Android, Board Game, Summer 2014)
-This is an actual board game with (presumably social) RPG elements.
-Here's a trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7UjvQP-8tJ0

School Fanfare(iOS/Android, RPG, Winter 2014)
-I'm just going to use the description from the site for this one.
-"Planned for release on CyberAgent’s mobile Ameba service, School Fanfare is not a typical RPG offering a dramatic story or monster fights. Instead, players are supposed to choose a schoolgirl of their liking and try to train her on the way to becoming a famous singer. CyberAgent has hired famous Japanese illustrators and musicians to help create the game. The company tries to appeal to a similar user base as School Idol Live from KLab or School Girl Strikers from Square Enix."
-Yes this is a second game trying for the same audience as the first one.

Bandai Namco:

Shingun Destroy! – Girl’s Tank Battalion (iOS, Action, Summer 2014)
-It's a loli tank battling game.
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eCnMbjjUWlE

Sword Art Online – Code Register (iOS/Android, RPG, 2014)
-The first Sword Art Online mobile game.
-It looks exactly like Brave Frontier mechanically.
-Screenshots: http://www.serkantoto.com/wp-conten...e-code-register-bandai-namco-7832-536x460.png

Sega:

Oshare Koode – Girls Holic (iOS/Android, Fashion Simulation, Fall 2014)
-This is a game where you dress up with over 2000 items to choose.
-You can also change your hair style and make-up.
-Website: http://girlsholic.sega-net.com/

Dragon Parade (tentative title) – release date and genre TBA
-Basically nothing is known about this game except that it will have a worldwide release and has one title screen image.
-However, this was enough to be quite exciting to investors and cause share price spikes, so for some reason people are excited for this one.
-The image: http://www.serkantoto.com/wp-conten...Mark-3624-Sega-Networks-Sega-6460-229x460.png

KLab:

Age of Empires: World Domination (iOS/Android, Strategy, Winter 2014)
-This looks like an iOS strategy game where everything is putzy.
-It probably plays somewhat like Clash of Clans.
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tOsK-ooTZGg

Crystal Fantasia (iOS/Android, Autrunner RPG, Winter 2014)
-This seems to be some kind of auto runner sidescrolling action RPG.
-However levels actually end and there are bosses and stuff.
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EmRROTb24j0

mobcast:

Dragon Spin Z (iOS in September/Android is planned for October 2014, Slot Machine RPG)
-Previously on Dragon Spin Z...
-This is produced by Tetsuya Mizuguchi of Rez and Child of Eden fame.
-This is a literal slot machine RPG, not a figurative one.
-Serkan Toto has a separate article about Social Casino RPGs and their success in general here: http://www.serkantoto.com/2013/03/28/social-casino-games-japan-2/
-Screens: http://www.serkantoto.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/dragon-spin-z-mobcast-3664-620x255.png

Tetsuya Mizuguchi Social Puzzle Story Game (iOS/Android, Puzzle, Winter 2014)
-Directed by Tetsuya Mizuguchi of Rez and Child of Eden fame.
-We don't know much else, but TGS is almost here.
-I have a separate thread here: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=876905

Square Enix:

Final Fantasy VII G Bike (iOS/Android, Racing, Fall 2014)
-Yep, it's exactly what it sounds like.
-Developed by CyberConnect2
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XhnV1FL5J2w
-Thread: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=834596

The Irregular at Magic High School Lost Zero (iOS/Android, RPG, Fall 2014)
-Based on the anime The Irregular at Magic High School, but has an original story.
-"Magic Battle RPG"
-Not much for other details. This was basically a logo-only unveil.

Koei Tecmo:

Quiz Battle Toukiden (iOS/Android, Quiz RPG, August 2014)
-Based on Toukiden.
-It's basically Quiz RPG with a slightly different combat system.
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atN4BL_0VxE

Atelier Quest Board (iOS/Android, Board Game, Summer 2014)
-This is a board game with RPG elements.
-It's based on the Atelier series.
-Serkan Toto thinks the previously detailed board game has a better shot of being a hit.
-Screens: http://www.serkantoto.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/atelier-quest-board-koei-tecmo-3635-620x346.png

enish:

Sennen No Kyoshin (iOS/Android, RPG/Tower Defense, Fall 2014)
-It looks a lot like a sidescrolling view tower defense game with high production values and nice art.
-Trailer: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z9ngqXfpT60

Aeria:

Prism Fantasia (iOS, Action RPG, Summer 2014)
-It's a full 3D graphics action RPG.
-Serkan Toto seems more negative about this title than most of the ones he listed.
-Screens: http://www.serkantoto.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/prism-fantasia-aeria-620x413.jpg
 

kiryogi

Banned
So a little regarding Senran Kagura 2's performance, pulled from a GFAQs discussion, but definitely hits the nail on the head.

Staying power is not something innate quality but something that is patiently, carefully developped and I fear Takaki - and Marvelous - did some critical errors and mismanaged the franchise those past years - allowing the devopment of a toxic resentment among the Nintendo fanbase after Burst, producing an anime series which met an average success, the whole failure with Takatsume's manga, the lack of marketing (which was pretty evident if had followed Shinovi Versus' marketing last year... but you had to be here), competition from other 'ecchi' games in the jp gaming landscape which didn't exist till this year (Bullet Girls) and, what I suspect is an under-stated reason but critical nonetheless, Takaki's failure to create and manage an unified 'Senran Kagura' identity and worldview, with adaptations to others medias which are often dumbed down/bowdlerized from the original videogaming material.

A look at promotional material and marketing for each release and more reasonings:

1. The release of SV is tied up with the anime.
2. The promotion campaign of SV is much better, seiyuu events, lots of promotion videos(I don't get it why they only release 2 PVs for Senran 2)
3. Kagura and Naraku being not playable.
4. Bugs cause the game to freeze
5. EV is announced before SK2, while SV is announced after burst.
6. Collecting all swimsuit requires 50 times of streetpass, and online coop is not counted.
7. Most of the stages are too linear and short, though it is the same in SV.
8. Auto-navigating camera is not easy to get used to, wish there is full control of camera using the touch screen or circle pad pro.
9. The digital version is released on the launch day for the first time on 3ds, but the poor account system of nintendo makes some people don't want to buy it digitally.
10. The ninja stones are ridiculously strong that end-game bosses in highest difficulty can be one-ninpo killed, so why coop?
11. less playable characters and simplified cut-in animation
12. The price drop of Vita before the week SV was released.

SK - manga, short stories and VA videos.
Sk bust - more manga, toys, short stories and Va video
SKV - merchandise, new wave game , anime vita price cut.
SK 2 - ads and new wave.

While I'm not so completely sure how toxic the fanbase became due to the Vita releases. They were also lucky in that back then, when SK released, there was also the 3DS price cut. Versus also got similar treatment with the Vita price cut, but with even way more promotional events. Currently, Kagura 2 has next to no marketing aside from the Nico livestreams. Also more than likely, folks could be waiting for Estival Versus instead now. Looking at things now though, it's as if Marvelous sent it out to die with nearly no support. Sales of Estival Versus will indicate if the SK brand even has any staying power left.
 

ohlawd

Member
meh SK ain't going to die. ES is guaranteed 100k FW. Probably. At least it won't debut with such pitiful numbers like SK2

thing is done on 3DS tho. The least they're gonna do now is have the games be multiplat with the 3DS version getting no effort. And they'd be right to; the games will probably be 3D like SV so there's no reason to spruce it up. It'll have a quarter of the framerate, resolution cut down like a tree.

And that's the least they could do. I won't even be surprised if a Nintendo platform never gets another SK game
 
meh SK ain't going to die. ES is guaranteed 100k FW. Probably. At least it won't debut with such pitiful numbers like SK2

thing is done on 3DS tho. The least they're gonna do now is have the games be multiplat with the 3DS version getting no effort. And they'd be right to; the games will probably be 3D like SV so there's no reason to spruce it up. It'll have a quarter of the framerate, resolution cut down like a tree.

And that's the least they could do. I won't even be surprised if a Nintendo platform never gets another SK game

Well if SK isn't going to die, unless the series ends up successfully on consoles there will be no where else to go (assuming it doesn;t become a mobile series before going to 4DS).
 

Nirolak

Mrgrgr
Well if SK isn't going to die, unless the series ends up successfully on consoles there will be no where else to go (assuming it doesn;t become a mobile series before going to 4DS).
School Idol Live and School Girl Strikers are doing well on mobile so there's potential there.
 

Sandfox

Member
meh SK ain't going to die. ES is guaranteed 100k FW. Probably. At least it won't debut with such pitiful numbers like SK2

thing is done on 3DS tho. The least they're gonna do now is have the games be multiplat with the 3DS version getting no effort. And they'd be right to; the games will probably be 3D like SV so there's no reason to spruce it up. It'll have a quarter of the framerate, resolution cut down like a tree.

And that's the least they could do. I won't even be surprised if a Nintendo platform never gets another SK game

I wouldn't really say 100k is guaranteed.
 
The Irregular at Magic High School Lost Zero (iOS/Android, RPG, Fall 2014)
-Based on the anime Lost Zero, but has an original story.
-"Magic Battle RPG"
-Not much for other details. This was basically a logo-only unveil

Minor correction, Nirolak.

The anime it's based on isn't Lost Zero, it's "The Irregular at Magic Highschool "

Lost Zero is the game's subtitle.
 

jeremy1456

Junior Member
Wii U has stronger first party support than the Vita has in third and first party terms.

Honestly I give it two years to the Wii U overtaking the Vita's LTD.
 

-Horizon-

Member
meh SK ain't going to die. ES is guaranteed 100k FW. Probably. At least it won't debut with such pitiful numbers like SK2

thing is done on 3DS tho. The least they're gonna do now is have the games be multiplat with the 3DS version getting no effort. And they'd be right to; the games will probably be 3D like SV so there's no reason to spruce it up. It'll have a quarter of the framerate, resolution cut down like a tree.

And that's the least they could do. I won't even be surprised if a Nintendo platform never gets another SK game
ohlawd ;~;
 

ohlawd

Member
100k is ridiulous, my bad. Maybe 70k? That's already waaay better than SK2's debut. Should have longer legs too. SK2's legs are gonna be like a reflection of my legs

my legs are terrible

School Idol Live and School Girl Strikers are doing well on mobile so there's potential there.
yeah, no kidding.

the series will live one way or another.

ohlawd ;~;

yo, my SK2 LE is coming... in like a month lol.
 

ZSaberLink

Media Create Maven
Comgnet Launch Points x Media Create

Hyrule Warriors -------- 127pt (???)
Wind Waker HD ------- 56pt (30.264)

I'm gonna guess around 70k.

Some other titles first week orders from Comgnet:
DKCR:TF- 81
DQ X Expansion- Wii U 55
SM3D World - 164
Pikmin 3 - 144
Game & Wario - 32
NSMB U - 138
Nintendoland - 57
 

Sandfox

Member
I predict the next SK game will be on Vita.

We already know the next title is coming to a Playstation platform and if you're talking SK3 probably won't be out until 2016 at the earliest. I think its too early to say that the main series is going to move to the Vita.
 
Grimoire – Shiritsu Grimoire Mahou Gakuen (iOS/Android, Card Battling, August 2014)
-This is a competitor for School Idol Live from KLab or School Girl Strikers from Square Enix.
-It stars lolis and works like every other card battling game. It has tons of voice acting.

Just a heads up cause I wasn't 100% clear if you knew or not, but Love Live is actually a rhythm game and not a card battler. There is a card collecting element in terms of leveling them up for better bonuses on certain beats, but the crux of the game is competing using music.

Vs School Girl Strikers etc which actually are just card battlers.
 

Foshy

Member
Pwoar, a $20 price drop! Sony's going all out.

+ bigger hard drive

It's not much but ok I guess. They kinda shot themselves in the foot with PS3 hardware, I don't think they can go much lower with the price while still making money off it due to the CELL.

(maybe I'm wrong, correct me in that case)
 

prag16

Banned
Well yes obviously you can't predict too far to the future from first year of sales but I just don't see how from current numbers anything is indicating that PS4 is going to sell less than 100 million either. There is difference between PS2 numbers (155 million) and under 100 million. Also considering extremely abnormal life that Wii had it's not that worrying to fall behind its pace either (for a moment). PS4 is going to have major games and support for far longer than Wii had.
It's gonna be a hell of a lot more than a "moment". Have to recognize the possibility exists that once the streams have crossed, they don't cross again.
 

Road

Member
Pwoar, a $20 price drop! Sony's going all out.

It's a ~$20 price increase, though.

Cheapest PS3:

- before (250GB): 25,694円
- after (500GB): 28,058円 (+2,364円)

Previously, Sony just increased the HD for the entry model, without changing the price.
 

koutoru

Member
Kinda ironic that the original reason SK exists is that Takaki thought the 3DS needed 3D boobs, but now there's more potential for it on the system without 3D.

Maybe now he can work on π-Play + Morpheus integration for a PS4 game lol.
 
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