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August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

D

donny2112

Member
theprodigy said:
anyone?
Click to expand...

It's mostly flat with some variation. jvm has done reports on the software $ definitely is tied to whether Madden releases in the month or in September. Late month impacts that, too. I think hardware for big Madden marketshare platforms can see some movement from it, too, based on past years. Would really need to line up yearly changes to when Madden was released, though.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
THE AUGUST 2014 USA RETAIL SOFTWARE MARKET


AUGUST 2014 NPD TRACKING PERIOD:
AUGUST 3RD, 2014 - AUGUST 30TH, 2014 (28 DAYS / 4 WEEKS)


PS4 RELEASES​

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1) PLANTS VS ZOMBIES GARDEN WARFARE - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

2) DIABLO III ULTIMATE EVIL EDITION - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

3) METRO REDUX - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)

4) MADDEN NFL 15 ULTIMATE EDITION - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)

5) MADDEN NFL 15 - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)


XBO RELEASES​

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1PmXbPI.jpg
Y74JXr5.jpg


1) DIABLO III ULTIMATE EVIL EDITION - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

2) METRO REDUX - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)

3) MADDEN NFL 15 ULTIMATE EDITION - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)

4) MADDEN NFL 15 - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)


360 RELEASES​

ZcSDpds.jpg
K1qIrBp.jpg
IkjZq4g.jpg
UMiliLV.jpg
XgXe1b8.jpg
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yjFQWxW.jpg


1) SACRED 3 - AUGUST 5TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)

2) ULTRA STREET FIGHTER IV - AUGUST 5TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)

3) WORLD OF TANKS XBOX 360 EDITION - AUGUST 12TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)

4) RISEN 3 TITAN LORDS - AUGUST 12TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)

5) DIABLO III ULTIMATE EVIL EDITION - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

6) MADDEN NFL 15 ULTIMATE EDITION - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)

7) MADDEN NFL 15 - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)


PS3 RELEASES​

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bjrV3dJ.jpg
aRSpXik.jpg
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XUih0Mj.png
X6ZFpL1.jpg
Qes4ZeT.jpg
eTZIZdb.jpg


1) SACRED 3 - AUGUST 5TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)

2) ULTRA STREET FIGHTER IV - AUGUST 5TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)

3) RISEN 3 TITAN LORDS - AUGUST 12TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)

4) AKIBA'S TRIP UNDEAD AND UNDRESSED - AUGUST 12TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)

5) PLANTS VS ZOMBIES GARDEN WARFARE - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

6) TALES OF XILLIA 2 - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

7) TALES OF XILLIA 2 COLLECTOR'S EDITION - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

8) DIABLO III ULTIMATE EVIL EDITION - AUGUST 19TH, 2014 (12 DAYS OF TRACKING)

9) MADDEN NFL 15 ULTIMATE EDITION - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)

10) MADDEN NFL 15 - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)


WII U RELEASES​

NOTHING


WII RELEASES​

NOTHING


3DS RELEASES​

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1) TEENAGE MUTANT NINJA TURTLES - AUGUST 5TH, 2014 (26 DAYS OF TRACKING)

2) PROFESSOR LAYTON VS PHOENIX WRIGHT ACE ATTORNEY - AUGUST 29TH, 2014 (2 DAYS OF TRACKING)


PSV RELEASES​

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1) DISGAEA 4 A PROMISE REVISTED - AUGUST 12TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)

2) AKIBA'S TRIP UNDEAD AND UNDRESSED - AUGUST 12TH, 2014 (19 DAYS OF TRACKING)

3) HYPERDIMENSION NEPTUNIA RE;BIRTH 1 - AUGUST 26TH, 2014 (5 DAYS OF TRACKING)


DS RELEASES​

NOTHING




NEW RELEASES ARCHIVE:

January 2014 NPD Reporting Period (January 5th, 2014 - February 1st, 2014) (28 days / 4 weeks)
Nintendo Consoles February 2014 NPD Reporting Period (February 2nd, 2014 - March 1st, 2014) (28 days / 4 weeks)
March 2014 NPD Reporting Period (March 2nd, 2014 - April 5th, 2014) (35 days / 5 weeks)
April 2014 NPD Reporting Period (April 6th, 2014 - May 3rd, 2014) (28 days / 4 weeks)
May 2014 NPD Reporting Period (May 4th, 2014 - May 31st, 2014) (28 days / 4 weeks)
June 2014 NPD Reporting Period (June 1st, 2014 - July 5th, 2014) (35 days / 5 weeks)
July 2014 NPD Reporting Period (July 6th, 2014 - August 2nd, 2014) (28 days / 4 weeks)
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
Here are my tentative predictions...subject to change dramatically depending on further retail indications.

[PS4] 190K
[XB1] 149K
[3DS] 104K
[WIU] 70K
[360] 51K
[PS3] 29K
 
B

Blanquito

Member
David___ said:
I remember when Xbone was "flying off the shelves" when they un-bundled Kinect.
Click to expand...

On amazon it appears to have completely replaced the normal Xbox sales (because who wouldn't buy a Madden bundle for the same amount as a normal bundle?) but is still trending behind both Ps4 and Ps4+destiny.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
Hey everyone, sorry for any delay in getting to this thread. I saw it was up the other day, but I've been a bit busier and wasn't able to really scan the system for general trends. And honestly, it hasn't really been all that 'interesting' as far as trends go.

PS4 remained in a similar pacing to what it has been, whether it's a bit up in some stores (Madden saw new systems purchased for both consoles), or a bit lowered in others. No real steep drop offs or anything, but not an exaggerated upsurge, either. We've got well over 500 of the White PS4 bundle preorders just in our district, which is kind of crazy. That game is going to be crazy. I await September's thread with wide eyes.

XB1 sales are still not great, but they haven't tanked, either. (The madden bundle has been the primary one sold since release, to coincide with the Madden-fever) The new bundles got a few pre-orders each, but that was kind of it. I feel like they will do better once they're on the floor, and customers are in 'grab from the shelf' mode. The PS4 mindshare is still really hurting them though. Customers come in aware that PS4 is 'winning' and that the gap between the two consoles continues to grow in terms of player base, too, which is a hard hurdle to leap.

Wii U seems to only be consistent at being all over the place. Some stores continue to sell the thing well, with MK8 still doing solid sales... Other stores haven't moved a unit in a week. It's pretty head-scratching, honestly.

So, yeah. Pretty boring month over all. I do feel like the Destiny PS4 bundle is tempering their monthly sales, because there's plenty of customers that ask about it, and choose not to pre-order, as well, but the scale in terms of who is even asking about the various bundles is very skewed in favor of the PS4.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Nightengale said:
Curious about this. Source? Anecdotal? Sense-check with local retailers?
Click to expand...

One example was already posted here (Andrew Reiner) + friend who works in retail told me they did well + (as someone else mentioned) the Madden bundle is doing better than the standard Xbox One on Amazon, with the former staying in the top 50 spot since Madden's launch. Some people who were originally planning to get the last gen version of Madden 15 ended up getting the Xbox One bundle too.

Seems to be doing well but (again) I don't think it will be the top selling console for August.
 
P

prwxv3

Member
Abdiel said:
Hey everyone, sorry for any delay in getting to this thread. I saw it was up the other day, but I've been a bit busier and wasn't able to really scan the system for general trends. And honestly, it hasn't really been all that 'interesting' as far as trends go.

PS4 remained in a similar pacing to what it has been, whether it's a bit up in some stores (Madden saw new systems purchased for both consoles), or a bit lowered in others. No real steep drop offs or anything, but not an exaggerated upsurge, either. We've got well over 500 of the White PS4 bundle preorders just in our district, which is kind of crazy. That game is going to be crazy. I await September's thread with wide eyes.

XB1 sales are still not great, but they haven't tanked, either. (The madden bundle has been the primary one sold since release, to coincide with the Madden-fever) The new bundles got a few pre-orders each, but that was kind of it. I feel like they will do better once they're on the floor, and customers are in 'grab from the shelf' mode. The PS4 mindshare is still really hurting them though. Customers come in aware that PS4 is 'winning' and that the gap between the two consoles continues to grow in terms of player base, too, which is a hard hurdle to leap.

Wii U seems to only be consistent at being all over the place. Some stores continue to sell the thing well, with MK8 still doing solid sales... Other stores haven't moved a unit in a week. It's pretty head-scratching, honestly.

So, yeah. Pretty boring month over all. I do feel like the Destiny PS4 bundle is tempering their monthly sales, because there's plenty of customers that ask about it, and choose not to pre-order, as well, but the scale in terms of who is even asking about the various bundles is very skewed in favor of the PS4.
Click to expand...

Holy shit
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Yeah, Destiny is going to be huge. Going to help sell many new consoles (XB1 & PS4) but the PS4 bundle is going to do very well. Wouldn't be surprised if September NPD sales for the PS4 get over 300K.
 
J

Jimmyfenix

Member
Abdiel said:
Hey everyone, sorry for any delay in getting to this thread. I saw it was up the other day, but I've been a bit busier and wasn't able to really scan the system for general trends. And honestly, it hasn't really been all that 'interesting' as far as trends go.

PS4 remained in a similar pacing to what it has been, whether it's a bit up in some stores (Madden saw new systems purchased for both consoles), or a bit lowered in others. No real steep drop offs or anything, but not an exaggerated upsurge, either. We've got well over 500 of the White PS4 bundle preorders just in our district, which is kind of crazy. That game is going to be crazy. I await September's thread with wide eyes.

XB1 sales are still not great, but they haven't tanked, either. (The madden bundle has been the primary one sold since release, to coincide with the Madden-fever) The new bundles got a few pre-orders each, but that was kind of it. I feel like they will do better once they're on the floor, and customers are in 'grab from the shelf' mode. The PS4 mindshare is still really hurting them though. Customers come in aware that PS4 is 'winning' and that the gap between the two consoles continues to grow in terms of player base, too, which is a hard hurdle to leap.

Wii U seems to only be consistent at being all over the place. Some stores continue to sell the thing well, with MK8 still doing solid sales... Other stores haven't moved a unit in a week. It's pretty head-scratching, honestly.

So, yeah. Pretty boring month over all. I do feel like the Destiny PS4 bundle is tempering their monthly sales, because there's plenty of customers that ask about it, and choose not to pre-order, as well, but the scale in terms of who is even asking about the various bundles is very skewed in favor of the PS4.
Click to expand...

Thanks as always !

Yeah Destiny PS4 Bundle will be huge!
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Yeah, Destiny is going to be huge. Going to help sell many new consoles (XB1 & PS4) but the PS4 bundle is going to do very well. Wouldn't be surprised if September NPD sales for the PS4 get over 300K.
Click to expand...

I think September is a 5 week period, and since the last 5 week period PS4 was at 269k, that should be a very easy prediction :)
 
J

JavaMind

Banned
I think ps4 can do 500k in September easily... Xbox one has only one chance to beat ps4...november i think. With bundles and halo maybe... But im not sure about that either...
 
N

Nightengale

Member
Thanks to all that responded to my query.

Always nice to have more 'words from the ground' beyond Abdiel's Monthly Report and Amazon Tracker.
 
A

Abdiel

Member
So, more anecdotal evidence for next month, at least. I stopped into my local Gamestop to check on the used PS3/PS4 games, and I chatted with the guy at the register for a bit.

Next Monday night, their store is anticipating over 1500 people for the Destiny midnight release. 2/3 of those are the White PS4 bundles. They are handling the midnight release for their store, and the local mall location as well, but even so. That number is insane.

That number kinda blew me away, cause I'd only seen our pre-order numbers, and it doesn't scale the same, cause GS is still the most heavily used for that purpose, it seems.

So, yeah. September is going to be crazy.
 
S

spatenfloot

Member
Abdiel said:
So, more anecdotal evidence for next month, at least. I stopped into my local Gamestop to check on the used PS3/PS4 games, and I chatted with the guy at the register for a bit.

Next Monday night, their store is anticipating over 1500 people for the Destiny midnight release. 2/3 of those are the White PS4 bundles. They are handling the midnight release for their store, and the local mall location as well, but even so. That number is insane.

That number kinda blew me away, cause I'd only seen our pre-order numbers, and it doesn't scale the same, cause GS is still the most heavily used for that purpose, it seems.

So, yeah. September is going to be crazy.
Click to expand...
I would expect a lot of Gamestops to sell out of the white bundles. Demand should be huge.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Abdiel said:
So, more anecdotal evidence for next month, at least. I stopped into my local Gamestop to check on the used PS3/PS4 games, and I chatted with the guy at the register for a bit.

Next Monday night, their store is anticipating over 1500 people for the Destiny midnight release. 2/3 of those are the White PS4 bundles. They are handling the midnight release for their store, and the local mall location as well, but even so. That number is insane.

That number kinda blew me away, cause I'd only seen our pre-order numbers, and it doesn't scale the same, cause GS is still the most heavily used for that purpose, it seems.

So, yeah. September is going to be crazy.
Click to expand...

Wow.

Like I said before, on amazon at least the White ps4 bundle has outsold all Xbox skus since it was announced. I mean, being amazon people cancel all the time and stuff, but if that is true across stores then in one month the white bundle has a chance of outselling the past 3 months of Xbox.

Next month is going to be very difficult to predict correctly.
 
Duxxy3

Duxxy3

Member
Aquamarine said:
That hasn't worked any month since December 2013...I don't know why it would work now.
Click to expand...

Nevertheless, it's what I'm going with. It's a 5 week month, with a bundle in the last week for the biggest game of the month. Without the bundle I would have guessed 150k in a 5 week month, but a bump up because of the well advertised bundle.

PS4 should top XB1 by a good margin in September.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Duxxy3 said:
Nevertheless, it's what I'm going with. It's a 5 week month, with a bundle in the last week for the biggest game of the month. Without the bundle I would have guessed 150k in a 5 week month, but a bump up because of the well advertised bundle.

PS4 should top XB1 by a good margin in September.
Click to expand...

I've got bad news for you: it's a 4 week period this month.

More bad news to come when results appear. :)
 
D

Darksol

Member
Interesting to see all the retail anecdotes. I can't wait for October so we can get September's NPD and hopefully learn the Destiny split.
 
D

Dragonborn

Member
Abdiel said:
So, more anecdotal evidence for next month, at least. I stopped into my local Gamestop to check on the used PS3/PS4 games, and I chatted with the guy at the register for a bit.

Next Monday night, their store is anticipating over 1500 people for the Destiny midnight release. 2/3 of those are the White PS4 bundles. They are handling the midnight release for their store, and the local mall location as well, but even so. That number is insane.

That number kinda blew me away, cause I'd only seen our pre-order numbers, and it doesn't scale the same, cause GS is still the most heavily used for that purpose, it seems.

So, yeah. September is going to be crazy.
Click to expand...

Jesus, that bundle is going to sell more PS4s than anything else so far. Not to mention, it being seen as a PS game will help the PS4 keep up momentum throughout the Holiday season.

I think the madden X1 bundle will do well this month at the expense of the regular SKU so the X1 won't really see much of a boost. Next month, it's going to be a bloodbath though (in NA and especially WW)
 
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