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August 2014 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes September 9th

B

Blanquito

Member
NPD doesn't include bundles in the software breakdown (I believe), so we should at least find out which console sold the most retail standalone units.

I think the only way we'll know if the Madden bundle helped the Xboxone sell more is if MS releases some PR on it.

Edit: under the assumption that PS4 version sells more. Obviously if it doesn't, then we'll see/hear about it
 
T

Toemon

Banned
I think Theres a strong possibility, that Madden will cause Xbox to be the winner. In fact didn't 25 sell more on the chosen one?

So this would go as Spencer said. The real battle starts in Sept, Oct, Nov, and Dec.

I think the Wii u will continue to fail on gaining ground. Not even with smash and such because this and the next 3 months are suffocated with games.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
Interesting... currently the Madden bundle is no longer in stock at Amazon (as in, not sold directly by Amazon; only available by third parties).
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
Toemon said:
I think Theres a strong possibility, that Madden will cause Xbox to be the winner. In fact didn't 25 sell more on the chosen one?

So this would go as Spencer said. The real battle starts in Sept, Oct, Nov, and Dec.

I think the Wii u will continue to fail on gaining ground. Not even with smash and such because this and the next 3 months are suffocated with games.
Click to expand...

Based on what exactly?
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
Jimmyfenix said:
That was a crazy NPD thread is what i am getting at. I know September will be a crazy one but i am hoping August is as well.

June was good because of the leak but i guess that will never happen again.
Click to expand...

Things shouldn't be that crazy. The Madden bundle will make things interesting but there really aren't any strong expectations since it was a bit of a slow month for game releases (outside of Madden).

Now the September thread on the other hand -- that's going to be crazy. I think MS' recent moves will make the month be a 100-150K gap month instead of a full 2:1 but I can't say for sure. Will save my prediction for next month's thread (haha).
 
C

cornerman

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Things shouldn't be that crazy. The Madden bundle will make things interesting but there really aren't any strong expectations since it was a bit of a slow month for game releases (outside of Madden).

Now the September thread on the other hand -- that's going to be crazy. I think MS' recent moves will make the month be a 100-150K gap month instead of a full 2:1 but I can't say for sure. Will save my prediction for next month's thread (haha).
Click to expand...

Recent moves? I'm curious. Go ahead and share, who knows if we'll even be here next month. I enjoy the theories.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
cornerman said:
Recent moves? I'm curious. Go ahead and share, who knows if we'll even be here next month. I enjoy the theories.
Click to expand...

Mainly referring to the Madden bundle still helping XB1 sales this month (September) on top of the free game with any SKU deal next week.

Was honestly expecting a 2:1 for September NPD months ago due to the PS4 Destiny bundle but I'm not sure about that anymore.
 
I

IAmRandom31

Banned
Bgamer90 said:
Things shouldn't be that crazy. The Madden bundle will make things interesting but there really aren't any strong expectations since it was a bit of a slow month for game releases (outside of Madden).

Now the September thread on the other hand -- that's going to be crazy. I think MS' recent moves will make the month be a 100-150K gap month instead of a full 2:1 but I can't say for sure. Will save my prediction for next month's thread (haha).
Click to expand...

I see September as a 600K to 200K type month.

The white PS4 destiny bundle is a top selling type item. Even broke into the Top 100 of all of 2014 on Amazon, think it is 85 or so now in the US.

So the usual 180 - 200K sales + the mass amount of white ps4 bundle sales + extra sales from people picking up a regular PS4 for Destiny.

500-600K is my low mark for NPD in September. Could get crazy depending on the hype that is created by Destiny upon release and the word of mouth. We have a lot of month left in September.

i mean like right now in the US the X1 Madden bundle is #100 in rank. The Destiny PS4 bundle is #6 in rank.

Dont think that madden bundle is really moving that many units.
 
C

cornerman

Member
How widespread is the free game deal? Are all stores participating? If its not a global offer then I think its effects will be limited.

I dont think madden is going to change the numbers much. Software-wise xbox will hang in there(we've seen this with games like CoD), hardware-wise I think it remains pretty much the same. I think the consumer is wise enough to know madden is on everything. I think the ratios remain the same.
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
cornerman said:
How widespread is the free game deal? Are all stores participating? If its not a global offer then I think its effects will be limited.

I dont think madden is going to change the numbers much. Software-wise xbox will hang in there(we've seen this with games like CoD), hardware-wise I think it remains pretty much the same. I think the consumer is wise enough to know madden is on everything. I think the ratios remain the same.
Click to expand...

They are doing something better in the UK.

Xbox 360 + any 5 games for a x1 with destiny and MCC + 229 GBP

Im trading in a almost mint second hand 360 with 5 throwaway games that cost less that £20 total.

Im essentially getting a brand new Xbox one for 170 gbp, a saving of easily 130 pounds.

It would be rude to not buy at that price. Its not like I even play my 360 anymore. Only game ill miss is NG2.

So yeah, I reckon that the Xbox might do better this hoilday than previously thought. However, in the long run all these free game deals are doing are burning through previous gen owners who would of eventually upgraded anyway. Its not expanding the XBOs audience in the long run.
 
B

Bgamer90

Banned
IAmRandom31 said:
I see September as a 600K to 200K type month.

The white PS4 destiny bundle is a top selling type item. Even broke into the Top 100 of all of 2014 on Amazon, think it is 85 or so now in the US.

So the usual 180 - 200K sales + the mass amount of white ps4 bundle sales + extra sales from people picking up a regular PS4 for Destiny.

500-600K is my low mark for NPD in September. Could get crazy depending on the hype that is created by Destiny upon release and the word of mouth. We have a lot of month left in September.

i mean like right now in the US the X1 Madden bundle is #100 in rank. The Destiny PS4 bundle is #6 in rank.

Dont think that madden bundle is really moving that many units.
Click to expand...

I would greatly be surprised if it reaches 600K for NPD. That many sales in a month that isn't November or December is "Original Wii territory" -- PS3 and 360 never did that.
 
C

cornerman

Member
ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
They are doing something better in the UK.

Xbox 360 + any 5 games for a x1 with destiny and MCC + 229 GBP

Im trading in a almost mint second hand 360 with 5 throwaway games that cost less that £20 total.

Im essentially getting a brand new Xbox one for 170 gbp, a saving of easily 130 pounds.

It would be rude to not buy at that price. Its not like I even play my 360 anymore. Only game ill miss is NG2.

So yeah, I reckon that the Xbox might do better this hoilday than previously thought. However, in the long run all these free game deals are doing are burning through previous gen owners who would of eventually upgraded anyway. Its not expanding the XBOs audience in the long run.
Click to expand...

That is a great deal. If you can walk in any store and get that then it means they can market it on tv. If its something you have to know about from a particular store ad or something, I think the message penetration will limit the success.

I think it will definitely do well this holiday. I just don't think it will outdo Sony. Of course considering how aggressive they are now...black friday sales will probably be ridiculous. As far as moving units then, I think they can make huge bounds forward as people will be looking to buy and will be paying attention.
 
A

ascii42

Member
Bgamer90 said:
Mainly referring to the Madden bundle still helping XB1 sales this month (September) on top of the free game with any SKU deal next week.

Was honestly expecting a 2:1 for September NPD months ago due to the PS4 Destiny bundle but I'm not sure about that anymore.
Click to expand...

The deal they are running next week makes things interesting, but I think we should see how much the Madden bundle helps August sales before predicting how much of an effect they'll have in September. I suppose together they do make for quite a deal, if I didn't already have a PS4, that would probably make me make the jump to current gen.
 
B

Blanquito

Member
IAmRandom31 said:
i mean like right now in the US the X1 Madden bundle is #100 in rank. The Destiny PS4 bundle is #6 in rank.
Click to expand...

As I mentioned above, that's because the XBO+Madden bundle is not being sold directly by Amazon anymore (for some reason. Out of stock? It would be weird if the bundle were already discontinued... but maybe?), so the hourly update will reflect that it is not generating sales.

The Madden bundle did well in August according to Amazon, and when the September results come up I expect to see it having a decent rank -- at least, for a couple of days, until it finally goes lower and lower unless they restock it.
 
A

Aquamarine

Member
theprodigy said:
Didn't the 360 do 500k+ on Halo 3 month?
Click to expand...

528K, but was the only time 360 did >500K in September.

Yeah the PS4 Destiny bundle is popular, but not Halo 3 level of popular. Maybe if Destiny was a PS4 exclusive...but it's not.

So II don't think PS4 will hit 500K this time around.
 
S

SwiftDeath

Member
Blanquito said:
NPD doesn't include bundles in the software breakdown (I believe), so we should at least find out which console sold the most retail standalone units.
Click to expand...

NPD doesn't include bundled sales of software in their Top 10 Software list so from the platform ranking they give us we'll be able to see if PS4 Madden Retail sold more or less than XB1 Madden Retail Standalone

NPD tracks the different hardware SKUs of all the consoles and does in fact therein track bundled software sales. They simply don't include it in the Top 10 SW list
 
B

Blanquito

Member
SwiftDeath said:
NPD doesn't include bundled sales of software in their Top 10 Software list so from the platform ranking they give us we'll be able to see if PS4 Madden Retail sold more or less than XB1 Madden Retail Standalone

NPD tracks the different hardware SKUs of all the consoles and does in fact therein track bundled software sales. They simply don't include it in the Top 10 SW list
Click to expand...

Right; that's what I was saying. :)
 
R

Rymuth

Member
Long time follower of SalesGaf, first time doing this. Let's see how I fare:~

[PS4] 201k
[XB1] 131k
[3DS] 110k
[WIU] 68k
[360] 53k
[PS3] 31k
 
T

theprodigy

Member
Aquamarine said:
528K, but was the only time 360 did >500K in September.

Yeah the PS4 Destiny bundle is popular, but not Halo 3 level of popular. Maybe if Destiny was a PS4 exclusive...but it's not.

So II don't think PS4 will hit 500K this time around.
Click to expand...

I don't either, but I'm saying it's not like it hasn't happened before despite claims to the contrary
 
T

Tubie

Member
[PS4] 190k
[XB1] 160k
[3DS] 110k
[WIU] 80k
[360] 50k
[PS3] 30k

First time doing this.

August is interesting, I think Madden will push the XB1 close to PS4. Same for CoD in November.
 
W

WhiskerFrisker

Member
[PS4]179k
[XB1]149k
[WIU]88k
[3DS]117k
[360]42k
[ps3]31k

[psvita]13k

Slow month overall so I'm not expecting high numbers. September will be the battle of the titans.
 
T

ThoughtsOfSpeaking

Banned
cornerman said:
That is a great deal. If you can walk in any store and get that then it means they can market it on tv. If its something you have to know about from a particular store ad or something, I think the message penetration will limit the success.

I think it will definitely do well this holiday. I just don't think it will outdo Sony. Of course considering how aggressive they are now...black friday sales will probably be ridiculous. As far as moving units then, I think they can make huge bounds forward as people will be looking to buy and will be paying attention.
Click to expand...

I dont watch tv very much but it doesn't seem to be advertised massively.

What is advertised is the MCC + Destiny bundle for 349. Ive even seen that at the cinema.
 
M

mrklaw

MrArseFace
ThoughtsOfSpeaking said:
They are doing something better in the UK.

Xbox 360 + any 5 games for a x1 with destiny and MCC + 229 GBP

Im trading in a almost mint second hand 360 with 5 throwaway games that cost less that £20 total.

Im essentially getting a brand new Xbox one for 170 gbp, a saving of easily 130 pounds.

It would be rude to not buy at that price. Its not like I even play my 360 anymore. Only game ill miss is NG2.

So yeah, I reckon that the Xbox might do better this hoilday than previously thought. However, in the long run all these free game deals are doing are burning through previous gen owners who would of eventually upgraded anyway. Its not expanding the XBOs audience in the long run.
Click to expand...

They are doing that for the white PS4 destiny bundle too.

Edit - they are also doing a 'swap your black for white' where you trade in your black PS4 and get the destiny bundle for £139, or trade in an iPhone (!?) and get a PS4 bundle for £99

Point is there are deals on both sides
 
A

Abdiel

Member
ZSaberLink said:
You forgot a bracket for the PS4 mejin.




Does this have to do with store arrangement for example? The Best Buy I went to recently had a nice Wii U demo out near the back, but had like no popular games stocked (didn't find MK8, 3D World or DKC for example). Not sure if that means they sold out, have them near the counter or what. Anything on Hyrule Warriors preorders? You get the Skyward Sword costumes by preordering/buying from Best Buy right?

So do Wii U sales seem to be down then? Since it sounds like it continues to sell well/about the same in certain places and has tanked in others.
Click to expand...

As far as Hyrule Warriors goes, think of it this way. There is a small, dedicated fanbase that is hardcore for any Nintendo franchise. They're preordering the game, though its much less than the preorders we had for MK8/the bundle.

I'd say overall the Wii U has been a bit down, because its numbers aren't increasing, any in some stores, they aren't selling any again, like earlier in the year. I don't think it's an across the board total drop out, but it's not what I'd call a positive swing.

Aquamarine said:
Just out of curiosity, are you limited to sales reports at the store-level / district-level? Is there any mechanism that allows you to see a summary of nationwide sales beyond manually checking each district?

I assume such an aggregation would be limited to Best Buy corporate, but it doesn't hurt to ask.

Thank you so much for the channel checks you do provide, though! Any retail insights are much appreciated.
Click to expand...

Aqua, I am not able to get the national numbers, though it'd make it really convenient for me if I could. I currently have been pulling up districts for the "weekly sales" numbers of various skus to compare, and then if something seems inconsistent, I actually manually tally the sales/returns each store has noted. It's also been busier, so its not as easy to get the detailed information while I'm on the clock, haha.

I'm sure corporate has those numbers, since we inform NPD of our sales, and our store manager could probably access that level of reports, because he talks directly to the district manager, but asking about that sort of thing is a bad idea, there's no 'reasonable' reason I'd have for wanting it at my position. Le sigh.

And hey, no problem! I like participating in here, offering some insight and speculation.
 
C

Conduit

Banned
mrklaw said:
They are doing that for the white PS4 destiny bundle too.

Edit - they are also doing a 'swap your black for white' where you trade in your black PS4 and get the destiny bundle for £139, or trade in an iPhone (!?) and get a PS4 bundle for £99

Point is there are deals on both sides
Click to expand...

iPhone for PS4?? Anytime.:)

Anyway :

[PS4] 150k
[XB1] 120k
[3DS] 90k
[WIU] 40k
[360] 59k
[PS3] 25k
[PSV] 10k
 
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