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[Aquamarine]

Cool, but you don't know if he talks to major players in his cell phone contact list or whatever.

Maybe he does, but the methodology (written by Pachter) specifically states that all he does is a couple of channel checks with a few retailers.

It's clear that Pachter doesn't consider calling up major players as a factor for the predictions.

Maybe he is baseing his numbers on counting only the standard PS4. He must have forgotten the white Destiny bundle if he thinks PS4 only sold 250,000 units in September.

Amazon shows the standard PS4 as #9, the Destiny bundle as #21 and the Xbox One as #39, but I am sure that the Xbox One outsold the PS4

How does Pachter still get paid to analyse the video game industry.

Maybe this bit of nonsense will be the final nail in his coffin.

He doesn't get paid to analyse the video game industry.

He gets paid to analyse whether companies are a good investment or not.

Specifically, Pachter covers these companies:

1) Best Buy
2) GameStop
3) Outerwall
4) RadioShack
5) Activision Blizzard
6) Parametric Sound Corp.
7) Electronic Arts
8) Take-Two Interactive Software
9) Majesco Entertainment Company
10) Ubisoft Entertainment
11) Nintendo
12) Amazon
13) Pandora Media
14) King Digital Entertainment
15) Zynga
16) Netflix
17) AMC Entertainment
18) IMAX
19) Carmike Cinemas
20) Regal Entertainment
21) Cinemark Holdings

And he used to do even more (like THQ) but a number of companies he used to cover are now bankrupt.

THAT is what Pachter does for a living. He comprehensively covers 21 companies with incredibly detailed, thoughtful analyses of investment risks, growth opportunities, and company health.

While he does that, on the side, Pachter releases notes about the state of the video game market, the state of the domestic movie industry, etc. quite regularly to supplement his coverage of the above companies.

 

[BumRush]

Cool, but you don't know if he talks to major players in his cell phone contact list or whatever.

Haha I think he got you on this one man...live to fight another day

 

[Barack Lesnar]

You can't possibly believe that Pachter would reveal all his information sources and tricks to everyone that subscribes to Wedbush.

That's what I'm sayin'.

 

[mrklaw]

I'm guessing that Pachter is amused by the fact that so many people seem offended for something he spends so little time coming up with.

If you send a quick prediction to clients, and then people all around the Internet get offended by it when it leaks, wouldn't you be a little bit cheeky as well?

He doesn't have to justify anything...the predictions are NOT meant to be shared to the public.

But surely his predictions are SOLD to clients? In which case shouldn't there at least be a little bit of due diligence behind them?

 

[TomShoe]

That's what I'm sayin'.

Pachter wouldn't *gasp* LIE in his methodology he gives to paying clients, would he?

 

[Aquamarine]

But surely his predictions are SOLD to clients? In which case shouldn't there at least be a little bit of due diligence behind them?

Not really, because clients receive them as part of a subscription 99 times out of 100 as a supplement.

I suppose you could technically purchase each report for $25, but why on earth would you want to do that? You want up-to-date investment information as soon as it happens.

 

[Jomjom]

That's what I'm sayin'.

Whats the point of leaving out a simple "my methodology includes speaking to my contacts who are 'major players'" or whatever term you want to use. Yeah I'm going to go with Aqua on this over some doubter who doesnt even subscribe to his report and would therefore know next to nothing on the matter.

 

[DirtyLarry]

I admittedly do not have time to comb through 30+ pages so apologies if it has been mentioned already, but I am curious did we actually find out the numbers yet? If not when are they released?

 

[prwxv3]

As a gamer, would you rather play Singstar or SO, the MCC or Littlebigplanet? I mean, I know people love Sony but come on.

I am really late but holy fucking shit what a fucking shit post. this is on par with his "games like uncharted and heavy rain are killing the industry" post he mad long ago.

 

[Duxxy3]

He doesn't get paid to analyse the video game industry.

He gets paid to analyse whether companies are a good investment or not.

Specifically, Pachter covers these companies:

1) Best Buy
2) GameStop
3) Outerwall
4) RadioShack
5) Activision Blizzard
6) Parametric Sound Corp.
7) Electronic Arts
8) Take-Two Interactive Software
9) Majesco Entertainment Company
10) Ubisoft Entertainment
11) Nintendo
12) Amazon
13) Pandora Media
14) King Digital Entertainment
15) Zynga
16) Netflix
17) AMC Entertainment
18) IMAX
19) Carmike Cinemas
20) Regal Entertainment
21) Cinemark Holdings

And he used to do even more (like THQ) but a number of companies he used to cover are now bankrupt.

THAT is what Pachter does for a living. He comprehensively covers 21 companies with incredibly detailed, thoughtful analyses of investment risks, growth opportunities, and company health.

While he does that, on the side, Pachter releases notes about the state of the video game market, the state of the domestic movie industry, etc. quite regularly to supplement his coverage of the above companies.

Three of those names pop out to me - best buy, gamestop and actibilzzion.

Two of the largest retailers covered in the NPD, and the publisher responsible for Destiny. If he has reliable contacts in those three companies, he should have a good idea of what went on in September.

 

[Jomjom]

I admittedly do not have time to comb through 30+ pages so apologies if it has been mentioned already, but I am curious did we actually find out the numbers yet? If not when are they released?

Thursday afternoon Pacific standard time.

 

[opticalmace]

I admittedly do not have time to comb through 30+ pages so apologies if it has been mentioned already, but I am curious did we actually find out the numbers yet? If not when are they released?

NPD comes out in two days. Numbers will probably be indirectly known sometime that evening (EST).

 

[Biker19]

But Sony was only able to get a deal of 200k units a year to the Chinese Market whereas Microsoft got a deal somewhere in the realm of 3-4 million? Wasn't that launch pretty successful too?

Microsoft is throwing money everywhere, even in my small fuckoff Australian town but unlike previous generations, China is a potential factor. If Microsoft gets a foothold in there (and it's possible due to the Anti-Japanese attitudes that exist) then China could be a huge disruptor to your so-called impossible catch-up odds.

You really think that China's gonna save Xbox One in sales, especially when most chinese gamers prefer Playstation as a whole even before PS4 came about?

Keep hoping.

 

[On Demand]

I dunno why you're speaking in such absolutes ("He does NOT talk with ANY major players"). You don't know any of these things for a fact. You can't make a statement like that.

lol.

How long have you been here......

 

[spatenfloot]

And he used to do even more (like THQ) but a number of companies he used to cover are now bankrupt.

Did he rate them a Sell?

 

[GeordieMark]

Originally Posted by Jack cw

Amazing how you alter the past just to make it fit your opinion.
- PS3 (fat) always sold better outside of 360s strongholds (mainland EU, Japan, etc.)
- 360 had a year headstart with great price, brilliant games library, superb online and still sold rather mediocre (supply constrains) and still couldnt beat PS3 on LTD sales worldwide.
- Playstation as a brand is still a force. People are associate gaming with it.
- Xbox brand and Microsoft behind it make people cautious, especially outside of NA. People think of Microsoft and NSA and not about gaming when they hear "xbox"
- Don't forget the RROD dilemma, and the loss of consumer trust in Microsoft
- Online behind a paywall with no real value for the consumer
- 360 was very western male focused, something PS3 made better
- The shift began with a reasonable price for the PS3 and great exclusive and JP games and the EU and JP market were a fallback for Sony
- Microsoft basically stopped supporting 360 after 4 years and were purely Halo/Forza oriented, while Sony gathered many new exclusive IPs in the second half of PS3 lifetime.
- 360 couldn't win much marketshare in keymarkets where its competition was strong - results to witness with the poor xbone performance
- Headstarts mean everything if done right. PS4 was supply contrained but Sony was able to deliver 1 million systems a month and sold them through. Demand is still high and will continue, because the system lives through its hype, word of mouth and positive PR

Hopefully, people will get this.

The post you quoted mixes truth and bullshit.

On one hand he mentions the importance of a headstart, and at the same time says it was irrelevant in the case of the 360.

The line about people thinking of the NSA when they think of Xbox is also pulled from his arse.

That's a massively fanboyish post, even if it does contain some truths.

 

[Jomjom]

lol.

How long have you been here......

Not long enough to know that numerous GAFers are regularly more accurate with their predictions than Pachter's hastily put together one that he never even intends for investors to act on.

 

[bud23]

Will there even be a bundle? We haven't heard anything.

There's still no official word, but it is bound to happen

 

[Xando]

The post you quoted mixes truth and bullshit.

On one hand he mentions the importance of a headstart, and at the same time says it was irrelevant in the case of the 360.

The line about people thinking of the NSA when they think of Xbox is also pulled from his arse.

That's a massively fanboyish post, even if it does contain some truths.

Actually it isn't when i talk about getting a Xbox with my friends they rather often make dumb NSA jokes(Germany).

 

[alexandros]

Whats the point of leaving out a simple "my methodology includes speaking to my contacts who are 'major players'" or whatever term you want to use. Yeah I'm going to go with Aqua on this over some doubter who doesnt even subscribe to his report and would therefore know next to nothing on the matter.

You don't need to be a subscriber to understand that a guy who makes a very good living making predictions isn't going to reveal his full methodology to anyone willing to spend $25. This is basic common sense.

 

[Barack Lesnar]

lol.

How long have you been here......

I just think that original post I quoted was strange, the way she talked in absolutes like she was representing the guy. Came off know-it-all and just weird. I doubt he'd want random people who buy $25 reports or whatever speaking on behalf of him like that. /shrug

You don't need to be a subscriber to understand that a guy who makes a very good living making predictions isn't going to reveal his full methodology to anyone willing to spend $25. This is basic common sense.

Exactly.

 

[omonimo]

Three of those names pop out to me - best buy, gamestop and actibilzzion.

Two of the largest retailers covered in the NPD, and the publisher responsible for Destiny. If he has reliable contacts in those three companies, he should have a good idea of what went on in September.

When he drop big bomb it's almost math he will be wrong.It's not new for such things.

 

[Biker19]

The post you quoted mixes truth and bullshit.

Huh? Where have you been from last year?

On one hand he mentions the importance of a headstart, and at the same time says it was irrelevant in the case of the 360.

Well, he is right in a sense. PS3 still caught up to 360 in worldwide sales, despite having a $200 price advantage & a year head start (Year & a half head start in Europe).

The line about people thinking of the NSA when they think of Xbox is also pulled from his arse.

Have you forgotten about Kinect 2.0 spying on people? Microsoft heavily advertised the Xbox One as a American centric console, & Kinect 2.0 spying on people didn't make things a lot better. Countries/Continents like Europe values their privacy. There are even some articles about that.

 

[Jomjom]

You don't need to be a subscriber to understand that a guy who makes a very good living making predictions isn't going to reveal his full methodology to anyone willing to spend $25. This is basic common sense.

Yeah because giving some extra support to his own prediction by saying he contacts sources (but not saying who those people are) wouldbe such a huge secret that he needs to hide. That's common sense.

You know what I'll change my mind a bit. I can see one scenario why he would want to hide even the mention that he contacts inside sources from the big players (Sony, Nintendo, MS, EA, Acti, etc.) for these predictions that amount to little more than footnotes. His predictions are very often way off (more so than many people who regularly predict on this very forum), and I wouldn't want my clients knowing that despite contacting all of these sources, I'm still wrong that often.




ORRRR more likely what's happening is that he's actually just not contacting them (no doubt he has contacts inside big companies) for something so trivial as a throwaway prediction that is not the highlight of what people are paying him for.

 

[alexandros]

Yeah because giving some extra support to his own prediction by saying he contacts sources (but not saying who those people are) wouldbe such a huge secret that he needs to hide. That's common sense.

Making people believe that he alone comes up with these predictions through his own special methodology instead of relying on outside info makes him seem all the more capable in the eyes of his clients, I would imagine.

 

[El-Pistolero]

 

[Aquamarine]

Yeah because giving some extra support to his own prediction by saying he contacts sources (but not saying who those people are) wouldbe such a huge secret that he needs to hide. That's common sense.

You know what I'll change my mind a bit. I can see one scenario why he would want to hide even the mention that he contacts inside sources from the big players (Sony, Nintendo, MS, EA, Acti, etc.) for these predictions that amount to little more than footnotes. His predictions are very often way off (more so than many people who regularly predict on this very forum), and I wouldn't want my clients knowing that despite contacting all of these sources, I'm still wrong that often.




ORRRR more likely what's happening is that he's actually just not contacting them (no doubt he has contacts inside big companies) for something so trivial as a throwaway prediction that is not the highlight of what people are paying him for.

Yep.

They're simple, throwaway predictions that are meant as a small supplement to the work he actually does.

Anyone who thinks "Big Bad Pachter has all these super special industry sources that he contacts all the time for sales updates" doesn't take into consideration the fact that he gives so many updates about the market every month...that this particular note is designed to be trivial and inconsequential.

 

[Jomjom]

Making people believe that he alone comes up with these predictions through his own special methodology instead of relying on outside info makes him seem all the more capable in the eyes of his clients, I would imagine.

That would be plausible if his predictions were actually fairly accurate. Second, his own statement to his subscribers is having people believe that his methodology for this little prediction specifically is anything but special (contact a few retailers, patterns, plus some of my own input), so what you just said makes no sense. If he wanted people to believe he had a "special methodology" he would say something to that effect. Professionals do that all the time to make laypeople think that what they are being hired to do is something the layperson could never do him/herself. I will bet that for his actual buy/sell analysis he's not telling people "oh I just call up a few retailers and that's about it!"

I'm sure his analysis for buy/sell advice like Aqua has said is spot-on (read: makes people loads of money), but this prediction is not for that purpose. Nobody is reading that report and saying "OMG Xbox One outsold PS4 this month?? Time to sell all of my Sony stock for Microsoft stock!" No, if they are buying MS stock, they are buying it for far better reasons than this throwaway prediction.

When you are doing things that don't really matter at work you don't put equal time and effort into it as a task for which you are being paid for. He's not being paid the big bucks because he makes some comment once a month about which video game console sold better. That's common sense.

 

[De_Legend]

Dead.

 

[A_Gorilla]

Wow, that was fast. I didn't expect him to start backpedaling for at least another day or two...

 

[Joeki11a]

"Maybe not?" He flat out already said it worked and is already backtracking.....And never even mentions the Sony deal with Destiny.....



Pachter already backtracking from his prediction? Sounds like it....

He clearly isnt saying a fact its just wishful thinking, clearly Destiny/Sony dominace is whats expected but will MS effects of their 180 ways show? yeah clearly they will get a reaction from that they should be scared if interest doesnt spike up after full 180 & price drop.

But the main issue is that
Sony's dominant strategy hasnt stopped its flowing at a positive rate still, thats MS main problem people want PS4 more yet again a year after its release.

 

[pixlexic]

So what happens if he is right?

 

[Chobel]

Making people believe that he alone comes up with these predictions through his own special methodology instead of relying on outside info makes him seem all the more capable in the eyes of his clients, I would imagine.

His predictions are often (always?) wrong, so his supposed "special methodology" isn't going to impress anyone nor it's going to show him "more capable" than any other NPD guesser.

 

[Aquamarine]

I just think that original post I quoted was strange, the way she talked in absolutes like she was representing the guy. Came off know-it-all and just weird. I doubt he'd want random people who buy $25 reports or whatever speaking on behalf of him like that. /shrug


Exactly.

"Know it all" and "weird"?

Okay sure, let's go with name-calling. I'm just so weird, aren't I?

 

[DUFFMCWALIN]

Have you forgotten about Kinect 2.0 spying on people? Microsoft heavily advertised the Xbox One as a American centric console, & Kinect 2.0 spying on people didn't make things a lot better. Countries/Continents like Europe values their privacy. There are even some articles about that.

Americans value their privacy as well. They just need to wake up for the malaise of the western culture.

I really want to see the final numbers. I just can't see the Xbox One pulling out a victory in September.

 

[Tommy DJ]

Making people believe that he alone comes up with these predictions through his own special methodology instead of relying on outside info makes him seem all the more capable in the eyes of his clients, I would imagine.

Someone mentioned that you and Hindle are alike. I can see why.

You're literally saying this: "I'm going to throw investment money at this company because Patcher and his secret sauce methodology that makes him so credible said so"

That doesn't make ANYONE look more capable. Sensible people paying money for this would ask "where the fuck is he getting this information from, why should we trust it?". He probably doesn't really need to mention specific sources but he needs to mention his methodology and the sort of places he's sourcing information from.

If I was at an engineering firm and some bloke gave me a report that mentioned ZERO consultation with any external actors, I would throw it in the bin even if its probably right. I'm not going to throw money into a pit if the report contains nothing that justifies their results. The only reports that do what you say are basically those awful pre-determined cost benefit reports (i.e. "internet speeds will increase linearly according to our secret source").

 

[Radec]

Man, I want it to be Oct 17th already.

 

[Joeki11a]

So what happens if he is right?

MS wins a month out of 12, it isnt going to change anything. All 3rd party games will still sell more on PS4 and Sony will still be leading the console race.

He seeking pitty towards MS, who have yet to win a single month in NA and isnt doing any better around the entire world.

 

[vcc]

Pachter wouldn't *gasp* LIE in his methodology he gives to paying clients, would he?

You can be alright in your methodology and still be wrong. For pachter and his clients, he just has to present a good case. If they find value in his work, they'll pay him. If not, they won't. You can't survive long as a consultant with pure bullshit. I'm sure pachter does good enough work to get paid.

 

[Klocker]

well he's right about the outrage over a possibility that the Xbox my have *gasp* outsold ps4.

It is much more outlandish and surprising than his silly little prediction

 

[El-Pistolero]

Honestly, what I find bold is not him expecting that the X-One had outsold the PS4, but him suggesting Destiny and the white PS4 model have had almost no impact on the PS4 monthly sale figure. That would be strange...

 

[mrklaw]

I'm not seeing hate, I'm seeing incredulity and disbelief

 

[Jomjom]

Someone mentioned that you and Hindle are alike. I can see why.

You're literally saying this: "I'm going to throw investment money at this company because Patcher and his secret sauce methodology that makes him so credible said so"

That doesn't make ANYONE look more capable. Sensible people paying money for this would ask "where the fuck is he getting this information from, why should we trust it?". He probably doesn't really need to mention specific sources but he needs to mention his methodology and the sort of places he's sourcing information from.

If I was at an engineering firm and some bloke gave me a report that mentioned ZERO consultation with any external actors, I would throw it in the bin even if its probably right. There's nothing to justify decisions off if the methodology is hidden.

Nah man. When I consult clients on legal matters, I tell them "oh you know I just Google a couple of statutes paired with some random stuff I happen to remember from my $3 outlines from law school and then we win the case and win you big money!"

Meanwhile in the background I'm actually like that guy from Suits and have a photographic memory of everything I've seen from the moment I popped out of the womb. Plus I consult the ghost of Clarence Darrow for every case.

But you know I can't tell them that because you know special methodology and all that.

 

[pixlexic]

MS wins a month out of 12, it isnt going to change anything. All 3rd party games will still sell more on PS4 and Sony will still be leading the console race.

He seeking pitty towards MS, who have yet to win a single month in NA and isnt doing any better around the entire world.

So nothing then.

But you do sound upset by it non the less.

It's not a game.. their isn't points. The companies either turn a profit or they dont.

I dont think either Sony or Ms cares who "wins" month to month. It's all about that year end profit. And that's not dependant on who's sold more consoles alone.

 

[plasmawave]

His reasons were because MS gave away free games therefore Xbox won September?

Yeah... I don't think free games are enough to win over PS4. How simplistic.

 

[hawk2025]

So nothing then.

But you do sound upset by it non the less.

It's not a game.. their isn't points. The companies either turn a profit or they dont.

I dont think either Sony or Ms cares who "wins" month to month. It's all about that year end profit. And that's not dependant on who's sold more consoles alone.

Yes, that year end profit.

Which is a number, and a function of the market share.

 

[Joeki11a]

So nothing then.

But you do sound upset by it non the less.

It's not a game.. their isn't points. The companies either turn a profit or they dont.

I dont think either Sony or Ms cares who "wins" month to month. It's all about that year end profit. And that's not dependant on who's sold more consoles alone.

Its more about him trying to make this seem like a big deal, seeking pitty for MS.
Come on they care about doing good business stop all that, Kaz & that MS lady are there to have good business all the way. They celebrate good business we can only discuss it.

 

[Nouzka]

well he's right about the outrage over a possibility that the Xbox my have *gasp* outsold ps4.

It is much more outlandish and surprising than his silly little prediction

The "outrage" seems to be more about how his predictions seems to be completely wrong, not that one console is selling more than another.

 

[Biker19]

There you have it, folks. Concrete proof that Patcher shouldn't be taken seriously one bit.

 

[bud23]

So what happens if he is right?

Spoiler

j/k