Mostly from demographic data. I'm sure there are exceptions.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Mostly from demographic data. I'm sure there are exceptions.
The Artisan
Member
That'd be a pointless statement to make. They were definitely talking about sales.
Nightengale
Member
funkystudent
Member
Sure it was. But GS got to get them clicks tho!
Would actually love to know what effect the US price cut has had on WW sales though. I can see a lot of people being put off the XB1 because the price cut and bundles have not reached anywhere outside of the US.
Maybe they will arrive in December though before Xmas though. Announce for the US for BF and worldwide for Xmas kind of makes sense?
Wii U is not sold by Amazon but only by third-parties. Wii U is on the rankings. Therefore, third-party sellers count toward the rankings. Someone suggested that only Amazon shipped third-party sellers count toward the rankings, but I find that choice of distinction curious and fairly unlikely.
AstuteClass
Banned
Yeah, fun is over guys. I think the PS4 would be #8 in its own right because of the recent games, but up to #1? Definitely is the scam.
Edit: taken out "Chartzzzz" link. Go easy, mods!
Edit: taken out "Chartzzzz" link. Go easy, mods!
The Artisan
Member
the xbone's pricing strategy matched the Ps4's way back in June. Now, the pricing's even better.
the real question is, will the $350 price tag stay this way, or will they really jack the price back up again
Nightengale
Member
Pricing matched then, but strategically it didn't catch up until now. (349 with two game)
There's a difference. It's the same logic with WiiU where due to its product position, being cheaper than PS4 and Xb1 does nothing to allow its pricing strategy to catch up to them. Its pricing strategy at this stage demands it to be cheaper significantly so that it can be a second console purchase.
Yeah, can't be the reason for it alone since the PS4 was moving up in the charts before it happened but it has to play a role; the system shot up to #1 shortly after the news about the scam was spread online.
Well, those sellers must adhere to some things...I sold stuff at amazon but never read the print to have them do the shipping for me and stuff. I just shipped the stuff myself and didn't enroll.
Looking at the current changes at Amazon...this smells like some Thanksgivings planning by casuals rather than anything else. The plain Xb1 sku shot up, likewise for the Destiny PS4 bundle. Smells like casual shopping planning to me.
SatelliteOfLove
Member
And some of these young children haven't really faced the necessity of what constitutes "proper controls". Either it's made for touch or it goes against touch but that doesn't matter in terms of fun/success/fulfillment. The enemy of Good is Good Enough, etc.
Still, with PS4/One doing well sales wise, and PC still in a third renaissance (now with a plethora of control options), I'm not too sure we're seeing young children being ignorant of other input methodology, just not seeing the need for those in mobile-resistant genres that need more nuanced/beefier input.
AstuteClass
Banned
Wut? Why's it banned? I'm a relatively young GAFer so I don't know all the intricacies yet.
hodayathink
Member
Don't know what time, but yes. I'm assuming that bands end at the same time of day that they begin, but I could be mistaken.
Because their numbers aren't worth the paper they're not printed on.
Their numbers are questionable, if not outright incorrect.
As is their methodology for calculating said numbers.
Try not to post links to that site because I'm pretty sure people get banned by doing so.
Vroadstar
Member
He just corrected you for actually believing that the xbox one is closing the gap quickly and to make matters worst you even believe it's worldwide. So you just have to admit you are terribly wrong.
Which he probably won't. Let's see how he replies...
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
So? Why would that stop them from getting a console in the future. Actually consoles may be a big incentive for them since they like to play games. Look at the PC market for instance. Now, it is the biggest it has ever been and plenty of people gaming on a PC did not grow up on PC i will argue. Growing up on something does not mean ignoring the other. It´s not if/or situation. Actually, i would argue that getting more kids into gaming might have a big positive effect on console and PC gaming since these will grow up, and might crave games deeper gameplay than touch and with fully featured online mp, that make them enjoy it with their friends.
Lol, i destroyed your argument.Thank you for supporting my argument! I appreciate it
AstuteClass
Banned
Brb editing my post
You cited watch dogs as a sign the market is healthy. Read the article mrN posted. It details why the increased monetization of a shrinking and consolidating market is a very bad thing. Then look at the chart I responded to you with. You can figure it out
Liabe Brave
Member
Oh, okay. Sorry for the confusion, but if you want to talk about the total market, why only mention PS4 and One? It's much clearer to just talk about, you know, the total market. So let's.
In 2007 (the comparable year from last gen), the total NPD sales for all home consoles in Nov/Dec was ~7.3m. So if for some reason we're interested in blocking out just PS4 and One, how much would they have to sell to make 2014's total market match that? Well, in 2013 all the other consoles combined for ~2.9m. WiiU should do a bit better in 2014, PS360 and Wii worse. Let's guess overall numbers drop by a third, to ~2m combined. Assuming that's the case, then PS4 and One would need to combine for 5.3m to match last gen.
So we're back to the same conclusion: you saying anything under 6m for PS4/One would be "signs of severe contraction" is factually incorrect.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
Yeah WD was very healthy and it sold 8 million in one month. So much for a shrinking market. You also conveniently ignored that 30% of software are sold digitally. I wonder why, lol.
I've known for quite some time that this continuous 'sky is falling' rhetoric about the death of the console industry has been at least wildly overblown if not entirely inaccurate, but what I can never quite uncover is the motivations for continuing this false narrative of a grim and dark future industry collapse. Why would anybody want to see this happen? After all, the only way I can reconcile an argument being factually incorrect like you pointed out would be by laying the blame on confirmation bias, and people only seek to confirm things they want to believe.
Liabe Brave
Member
Please note that I'm only saying his "less than 6m would be a failure" statement is incorrect. I agree with him in the respect that I also believe it's extremely unlikely this gen will hit sufficient numbers to match last gen. That includes the PS4/One combo this holiday.
Industry contraction is a real thing. (There are possible arguments to be made that it's often overblown or exaggerated, but I'm not making them here.) It's just that MrNyarlathotep's stated threshold for what would constitute "severe contraction" is much too high.
Holy crap you didn't even read what I wrote. Did you even look at the WD chart and realize why I posted it in relation to the increased monetization of us?
Have you ever thought about the amount of stuff that goes on behind the scenes in various boardrooms and development houses that are constantly on the brink? How many people/friends are exiting the traditional market (and I'm not just talking about consumers). How the raison d'être of so many games now (new and old franchises) is to screw as much money from the people like us as possible? And it's by necessity, to survive, as budgets continue to rise. You may wish to stick your heads in the sand and look at only the short term ("I got mine jack") but If you're at all interested in the health of the traditional market you might want to look at the article MrN posted earlier. Focusing almost solely on increasingly monetizing the young male demo is lucrative in the short term, but it leads to a slate terrible of long term issues for that traditional market.
I don't know what you mean when you say the 'tradiational market'. Does that traditional market include digital distribution?
In any case, we're coming back to the spot we were in the PS2 era where the AAA market is suplemented by a mid-tier market of lower cost, unique, and cheaper to develop titles, only now they're being released via digital distribution outside the retail space. I honestly don't think we can make any legitimate claims about the contraction of an industry by citing NPD's retail reports when they do not track that very same distribution platform that is making it possible for this mid tier market to return with a vengeance. Perhaps this results in a contraction of the AAA development market, which is what I think you mean when you say 'traditional', but that doesn't automatically mean that the industry is contracting. You may be right, sure. But in this case, absense of evidence does not mean evidence of absence.
shinra-bansho
Member
I think a lot of things get conflated in these threads, and this tends to be one of those things.
Are we talking about contraction that has happened, or contraction that will or one expects to happen.
And for the latter, in what time frame are people referring to. Are we projecting out beyond the current cycle?
There isn't any denying the former, the industry has contracted massively from its peak in 2008. The impact on different publishers has and will vary depending upon their exposure to it, from essentially none with a publisher like Take-Two to being screwed with a publisher like Majesco.
But where things get conflated is when people take the contraction that has happened already, with specific reasons for that, as evidence of contraction at present or future of a very different market segment, instead of examining the current market for signs of direction. Hardware has re-entered a growth phase, but software [at physical retail] has yet to. I personally remain cautiously optimistic that it will follow hardware into growth as more titles release, as we consider digital distribution and as the installed bases grow, but I'm fully open to being wrong and I don't really get why there isn't a room for middle ground between everything's f*%^ed and everything's peachy f&^%ing keen.
I do agree with the idea that generational length will certainly limit the eventual sales of both hardware and software, although this may be offset somewhat by lower initial and eventual price of entry.
unapersson
Member
Is it US demographic data or elsewhere? I'm in the UK so it might be different though we have been part of the tablet/smartphone craze.
You still very much get that playground console war that's been going on since the 80s.
I just think it would take a generation of adults putting their consoles away for kids to be completely unexposed to them. In my experience kids go where the games are. Maybe in a few generations kids will find a dusty console in the loft and laugh. But I don't think it's happening yet.
so we traded a marketplace that could support mid-tier projects at $40 and $50 for one that seems to only tolerate them at $10 and $15 and maybe $20 price points. the middle-tier is gone and what we're left with are extremely inexpensive games that once held more value. and this has to happen because they can't sell any other way because the market is so focused on very specific types of games and demographics now.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
I honestly ballparked the numbers because I was getting annoyed at the contrary posters refusal to post any numbers of their own (which they still haven't), so am happy to downgrade my hugely inflated number to ~5.5m from 6m, but its somewhat of a moot point because I don't think hitting either of those numbers are at all likely.
Those numbers I posted were in response to people denying the former, and talking about things like the PS4 selling PS2 numbers and the Xbone selling 360 numbers, and NA + EU completely negating the decline of Japan, etc
I wanted to know what numbers the PS4 and Xbone would need to sell in the holiday NPDs this year for those people to admit that there is contraction at all.
Console gaming evolves like any other media it wont go away.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
When's the last time you went to the Opera?
Well, it never did actually die out. Mwahahaha
unapersson
Member
I don't have the numbers, but if the total console sales this year is less than the global console sales last year, then I'll admit there's been a contraction.
That is:
PS4 + Xbox One + Wii U + Wii + 360 + PS3 + PS2
Is bigger for Jan - Dec 2013.
Wouldn't mind seeing a graph of that for as far back as we have data for, so we can see the percentage drop/growth over time.
So that's raw console numbers rather than trying to work out number of gamers, with none of that nonsense about generations.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
No, but it is the sort of rarefied, super niche and highly expensive experience that is almost completely superceded to the genral populace by the musical, despite being one of the most technically demanding entertainment mediums around
ZSaberLink
Media Create Maven
Well 2013 was one of the worst years in terms of hardware sales until the XB1 & PS4 launches iirc. Might not be the best comparison?
Oh absolutely, imo consoles will fade away. I just think it's funny that he is still technically right heheh
unapersson
Member
Wasn't sure, which is why I asked about a graph going back further.
BrokenIcarus
Member
Do we have actual HW numbers yet?
anonymous_abc
Member
We got nothing.
If you think a couple of $15 indie releases here and there is comparable to the PS2 era of mid-tier studios (Konami/Capcom/Midway/THQ) churning out $60 games regularly, then I'm not sure what to tell you.
The pricepoint alone indicates that the mid-tier market did not come back.
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Its probably closer to
PCs are hi-fi seperates
consoles are mini systems
handhelds are iPods / walkmans
....but yeah.
EDIT:
Extrapolating further, PC games are vinyl, console games are CDS, handheld games are minidisks and the IOS / Android market is currently 96kbps MP3s
Right, there are basically 2 extremes with nothing in between. Outside a couple publishers that still engage in mid-tier retail releases (Nintendo, Atlus, etc)
I think your problem here is that you believe that the snapshot of the industry you saw then is the only truth that can exist forever. It explains why you feel like the contraction we saw in the past is an unstoppable train. It explains why you feel like smaller games with competitive pricing is a sign of a dead mid-tier ravaged by over saturation in specific genres rather than a result of pressure from comparable experiences on other platforms that didn't exist in the PS2 era. It explains why you seem to be ignoring that some of the most successful titles in this new environment are far more imaginative and genrebusting than ever before, and have sold remarkably well despite not being a part of the demographic you seem is being directly catered to.
Yes, maybe you have a perspective when you state that the AAA industry has some problems that look insurmountable. That doesn't immediately equate to the entire industry collapsing in the near future. Everything you're peddling comes off as fear mongering supported by wild speculation.
Presenting it as 'a couple' indie releases is extremely disengenuous. We've received two free indie games a month since the PS4 came out, for free. Furthermore, we're barely a year into the generation that has made this new playground possible, a playground that has never had the same level of price competition as the PS2 era. There are dozens of other releases on that platform alone since the device launched, each toying with new unique methods of monetizing, providing content, or creating value from novel mechanics or ideas. I think you also have the same problem the other poster does - you're caught up with some doom and gloom impression you received from looking at a mere snapshot of the industry at one point and feel it's on a never ending slide into disaster. I don't think there's anywhere near enough evidence to support that position. I don't think we can say either way, of course, given how little information we have on actual sales.
I don't see how we can take you guys seriously if you keep minimizing things you know don't help your position while grossly overstating things that you feel do. Your inability to consider alternative positions and your complete adherence to a statistical source that fails to include a fast growing method of distribution suggests to me that you can be safely ignored. Still, I'd like to know one thing: exactly why do you want to see this industry fail? What do you get out of it?
I've always seen this kind of attitude as the more negative side of nostalgia*. That is, in order to further believe that the past was better than it was, we will predispose ourselves to believe that the present is worse than it is.
*Nostalgia seems like the wrong word in this context, I might be referring to some similar but different concept...
Also that "absence of evidence does not equate to evidence of absence" line you dropped earlier was ice cold, and in general I agree with the sentiments offered by yourself and that guy that isn't Y2Kev's alt, ie contraction has happened, but this alone does not end the predictions/debate on what will happen next.
gundamkyoukai
Member
The mid tier market is back it's just at a lower cost to the consumer gone are the days when you can charge $50 for everything just because they on console .
Another problem is what people call mid tier since everyone does not agree with what games they think is mid tier .
For eg if i call Dragon’s Crown a indie game some might not agree but truth is it only cost 1 million to make which is what some indie games cost .
MrNyarlathotep
Banned
Sorry, I really think you completely misunderstand this.
Stating that there are serious problems is not the same thing as "wanting things to fail" - before problems can be addressed, the very first step is admitting that there is a problem.
It is vastly more deleterious to pretend there is nothing wrong, or that indie titles made by 1 or 2 people are a whole cloth replacement for titles that were made by teams of 30 to 40 people, or that losing entire market segments doesn't matter because they enjoyed games you don't and as long as your tastes are met then everything is rosey.
Melchiah
Member
Even if MS won November/December it would be a pyrrhic victory, as they've decreased the price so low, on top of offering free games with the system. Are they going to continue the practise and bleed money for the coming months as well to keep the sales up? Not to mention, that eventhough they'd win the NPD sales for a month or two, the sales in the rest of the world negate its effect.