the meltdown will be bigger if sony doesn't take the month.
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NPD Sales Results for October 2014 [Up3: All of Nintendo's 3DS million sellers]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
the meltdown will be bigger if sony doesn't take the month.
Nah.
AstuteClass
Banned
I doubt that. Everyone has been following this closely, and with MS' PR earlier this month, pretty much everyone expects the X1 to win.
Besides, the implications of Sony winning are much grander. If MS wins, it's obviously a surge from people seeing ridiculous pricing and thrown in games, with most likely PS4 hot on the tails. If PS4 wins... then it means despite MS throwing the console away to people with a load of games, the PS4 STILL managed to come out on top and it's going to be next to impossible for MS to reclaim any sort of comeback.
FinalStageBoss
Banned
Not really, most (sane)ppl are prediction an XB1 victory.
Anyway the Amazon charts don't mean much, it's all about Black Friday in November.
no, definitely. the market leader that's done everything right taken down just because microsoft is buying their success (i don't actually believe that, but just trying to put the perspective out there)? yeah, people are going to actually be angry.
the other way around will be gloating, as with the march 2014 npd results. i've already seen it. it's boring.
we're not talking sane people though. we're talking about the same kind of people who were convinced romney would win because of skewed polls and shit.
theprodigy
Member
He's right, you know.
I think you're the only one that believes that. I mean you can grab the xbox one bundle for 299$ in a couple retailers right now. That's hell of a deal.
Edit: ^ make that 5 of you. Rectum just wants the world to burn though...
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
People wont be angry at a XBO win, but there will be a few salty responses. Especially if its close (within 100k)
But if PS4 wins, the forum is going into meltdown.
But if PS4 wins, the forum is going into meltdown.
AstuteClass
Banned
Just as I'm sure there are insane people in the Xbox fanbase who are convinced this is the big turn around for MS and the X1 will win the month by 500k or something, after hanging onto every one of Greenberg's Tweets about "prime time".
Again, the implications of Sony winning are much, much bigger and more damaging.
ThoughtsOfSpeaking
Banned
These people are going to melt down regardless. Nothing is indicating the win will be even remotely like that.
There is no significant comeback happening. The gap will be less than 150k, with Sony obliterating that wordwide.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I agree.
Most of sales age seem to think there will be a difference in MS favor. But that it will be marginal. We'll see soon enough, but the bigger meltdowns will be caused by not only a MS win, but a big one.
Sony eking out a victory both marginal and large are part of the common narrative this generation. PS4 outperforming One is the narrative, is the baseline of expectations so far. One taking November by any more than 100K units is going to cause a bloodbath.
Completely upsetting the common narrative usually leads to freak outs and mass bannings. Lest we forget the prior generation as Wii took an early and very decisive lead over it's competition. Anything that "upends the teatable" looks to batshit crazy.
So, yeah there's a destructive part of me that very much wants to see One outsell PS4 by a few hundred thousands units just to read the screams.
absolutely.
that november npd thread is going to be insane either way. looking forward to it.
I think you guys are looney with this. Meltdowns happen as a result of shattered expectations. The only people that would meltdown over Sony losing are people that are trying to goad others into a meltdown.
I don't know if there is a poster worth spending time on who is going to get upset about Microsoft buying their way in. That's been their MO for 15 years.
I don't know if there is a poster worth spending time on who is going to get upset about Microsoft buying their way in. That's been their MO for 15 years.
I don't agree, and I dislike this perspective. I mean, not that you're the only one to say it. But the licking of the lips in anticipation of insanity (not really pinning this on you, but, well, you are looking forward to insanity so) is really not how we should get things started.
Thunder Monkey
Banned
I called that part of me destructive for a reason Kev.
sjagolinzer
Member
They will all be gone over the course of one picture. Lol. BUT it would be interesting how fast that one best buy can burn through 400 ps4s.
I also think if it was possible to have the data that the ps4 will absolutely outsell xb1 over black friday weekend. I feel with the Xbox price drop and bundles they are just front loading November for themselves. It all comes down to if xb1 can maintain stock to finish the month or if Sony can get enough consoles out there, especially the gta bundle and get one into the hands of everyone that would want one friday. Because being black friday I feel peopless are way more prone to impulse buying it if they can get their hands on it since they are use to shit selling out and such. I honestly wouldn't be surprised if both xb1 and ps4 did huge numbers this month.
i don't know man. people went two years expecting bayonetta 2 to get a port to other platforms despite denial after denial. the people who are regular followers of news will be aware of what's happening, but the people who are usually in the first 500 posts or so or just jump in with gif responses may be hit hard.
the real world implications of ps4 outselling xb1 would be utter disaster for the xbox brand. i don't know if xbox fanbase is as fervent as the nintendo and sony ones though. i speculate that it isn't mostly because it's the newest and has had less time to build a group of people who only grew up playing xbox devices.
Not only this but MS investing money is good for the industry as we see a major party like Nintendo fade in this space. PS4/XB1 really need to sell as many units possible.
shinra-bansho
Member
I thought there was a general expectation that Microsoft's recent moves would have them taking one or both holiday months?
I'd expect some degree of consternation if they don't. This is the big play. The inability to meet that expectation now would have people needing to face that it may never.
Something something Dylan Thomas poem.
I'd expect some degree of consternation if they don't. This is the big play. The inability to meet that expectation now would have people needing to face that it may never.
Something something Dylan Thomas poem.
Mikey Jr.
Member
MS will win November.
That really shouldn't be a surprise for anyone. It'll be a "Yeah, of course they won" type moment. You pump that much money into bundles and price cuts, you're bound to move units.
Forum won't melt down. MS will get a victory. Sony will still sell a fuckton though, but they will probably win in the end because they didn't have to take such a massive hit to their profits like MS did.
Now, if Sony won, I honestly think we'll see an NPD reply count that will surpass titanfall NPD thread.
That really shouldn't be a surprise for anyone. It'll be a "Yeah, of course they won" type moment. You pump that much money into bundles and price cuts, you're bound to move units.
Forum won't melt down. MS will get a victory. Sony will still sell a fuckton though, but they will probably win in the end because they didn't have to take such a massive hit to their profits like MS did.
Now, if Sony won, I honestly think we'll see an NPD reply count that will surpass titanfall NPD thread.
CosmicQueso
Member
Actual response from 3rd party pubs and retail will likely be:
MS wins Nov - Okay. MCC and the discounts worked. No big change to strategy.
Sony wins Nov - Okay. Status quo. No big change to strategy.
Nin shows signs of life - Well that's good. No big change to strategy.
While a huge deal on message boards, Nov is fairly meaningless in the big picture. No one at any of the first parties is going to jump out a window or anything over this.
The fan base gets so much more emotional about this stuff. Thank goodness it cares so much.
MS wins Nov - Okay. MCC and the discounts worked. No big change to strategy.
Sony wins Nov - Okay. Status quo. No big change to strategy.
Nin shows signs of life - Well that's good. No big change to strategy.
While a huge deal on message boards, Nov is fairly meaningless in the big picture. No one at any of the first parties is going to jump out a window or anything over this.
The fan base gets so much more emotional about this stuff. Thank goodness it cares so much.
freefornow
Gold Member
What if Sony came 3rd? (after Ninty and assuming XBO is #1)
What if XBO came 3rd? (after Ninty and assuming PS4 is #1)
Surely meltdown worthy?
Above assumes Ninty wont be #1
What if XBO came 3rd? (after Ninty and assuming PS4 is #1)
Surely meltdown worthy?
Above assumes Ninty wont be #1
The "effective price" of the XBox One is hovering close to $300 for the entirety of the month, dropping to damn near $200 for Black Friday once you account for gift cards and two games.
No, no. The very least it needs to do is handily take November.
FinalStageBoss
Banned
shinra-bansho
Member
I think we're only entertaining plausibilities.
Or are publishers hoping/aiming for sufficient adoption by families of the other platforms to sustain these as viable brands long term and/or alternatively have they accepted a transition to mobile/tablet and perhaps PC for some of these.
----
Actually, on a related aside does NPD track who is buying in their reports as well as what's being bought? Is that sort of thing captured in PoS data they get - reminiscent of that Target teen pregnancy thing.
Depending on how much the signs of life are though, would it affect the future of certain brands under the various publishing houses; JD, certain platformers like Sonic and Rayman, the Skylanders and Infinity franchises, LEGO titles, possibly licensed games from family friendly properties Frozen, Big Hero 6, comic animated series.
Or are publishers hoping/aiming for sufficient adoption by families of the other platforms to sustain these as viable brands long term and/or alternatively have they accepted a transition to mobile/tablet and perhaps PC for some of these.
----
Actually, on a related aside does NPD track who is buying in their reports as well as what's being bought? Is that sort of thing captured in PoS data they get - reminiscent of that Target teen pregnancy thing.
theprodigy
Member
Wii U over either one? might as well discuss the fallout if Vita is #1 while we're at it
CosmicQueso
Member
The brands you mention aren't going anywhere. Nintendo is still a valued first party partner, and it wasn't too long ago they dominated the market and who knows, 5 years from now they might once again be dominant. So Nintendo platforms will be supported in some form. Maybe not CoD, but the brands you mention will be there no matter what happens (all the while, however, experimentation continues on mobile/tablet as well).
On your second question, NPD does have a panel of households who scan their purchases that they can extrapolate from (kinda poorly due to sample size), but the retail data comes across completely anonymously.
This is a good point. A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky, dangerous animals, and you know it!
disastermouse
Banned
Maybe more of a 'melt-up'? I don't think anyone would have legitimate salt/negative passion if Nintendo posted a huge turnaround.Wii U at number 1? Now that might be worthy of a meltdown
It's a shame we don't live in the world of unicorns and fairies in which that could actually happen.
I think it's possible for Alpha Sapphire and Omega Ruby to debut higher than X and Y.
With about 1.5 million in Austarlia and North America, I imagine that had to be at least 1 million in the US.
With Black Friday and the rest of this week, I think it can push it over X and Y.
With about 1.5 million in Austarlia and North America, I imagine that had to be at least 1 million in the US.
With Black Friday and the rest of this week, I think it can push it over X and Y.
The Abominable Snowman
Member
Most sane people are excited there are two consoles that are doing well and couldn't care less about who wins a single month.
Aquamarine
Member
Yeah. Even if Wii U demonstrates minor YOY growth (aka. even if it outperforms November 2013's 223K), it's still going to be eclipsed by PS4 and XBO.
Retail indications for November pretty much guarantee that, unfortunately, unless Wii U miraculously turns around on Black Friday with monstrous sales...which I don't think is going to happen because it seems like Wii U is more low-profile with deals.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Personally, I expect Wii U to achieve similar results as last year (10-20% increase in hardware sales).
Mario Kart 8 was just perfect timing with no major releases from any publisher - Super Smash Bros has much more competition.
It's going to be a good holiday season for Nintendo, but one should not expect double the hardware sales comparatively to last year - landscape is vastly different.
250k for Wii U in November is what I'm banking on.
Mario Kart 8 was just perfect timing with no major releases from any publisher - Super Smash Bros has much more competition.
It's going to be a good holiday season for Nintendo, but one should not expect double the hardware sales comparatively to last year - landscape is vastly different.
250k for Wii U in November is what I'm banking on.
theprodigy
Member
Aquamarine
Member
The incredible $329.99 PS4 deal on eBay (fulfilled by Newegg) is getting tracked by NPD.
http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=940495
As I explained in the other thread:
Considering how, so far, 2,900+ PS4 consoles have been sold from that eBay listing in one hour, and it's selling-through like crazy, this deal will have a noticeable effect on PS4 sales in the November 2014 NPD Reporting Period.
http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=940495
As I explained in the other thread:
Considering how, so far, 2,900+ PS4 consoles have been sold from that eBay listing in one hour, and it's selling-through like crazy, this deal will have a noticeable effect on PS4 sales in the November 2014 NPD Reporting Period.
Winterfang
Banned
Man Sony is killing it.
That doesn't even make sense. Everybody will chalk up the Xbox victory to aggressive pricing, bundling, and promotion, especially if they want to downplay it. I honestly don't think Sony has anything to worry about even if they don't win November or December NPD. Not when they're cleaning up the competition worldwide.
The only meltdown I can see, realistically, is either a PS4 win, or a lack of certain major titles charting.
Aye. Even a relatively small win (100k or less) would still feel bitter to MS after losing all that money per console sold. Of course there would be consolation in Good PR and some traction in mindshare. I'm sure the gaming media would also spin thatup faster than a Washer cycle.
Fully expecting a XB1 win here in November, but smaller than what MS expect, probably. I think a ton of people are holding on buying a PS4 for a deal... Any decent deal.
And two free games (both GotG worthy) for a $100 value is pretty decent.
I bet that $329 Newegg deal will also move some units..
lightning2k3
Member
Should still be peanuts compared to total sales though right? We're probably looking at 600k+ consoles sold(number pulled from my ass).
theprodigy
Member
To be fair, no matter what happens, MS will need to take a look at its overall strategy in video games if they wish to make another console.
If MS wins November, that's all fine and dandy except they had to have a hell of a November sale to do it, whereas Sony hasn't had to do anything.
If MS loses November, then they are in an even worse position than they thought since they had a hell of a November sale and Sony did nothing, but Sony would have still outsold them.
The issue that Microsoft is going to have to contend with is that they won't be able to beat Sony if they continue to focus on only America and Britain and will only be able to tie Sony at best. MS needs to expand their focus beyond just America and Britain if they do still wish to beat Sony because Sony is not going to make something like the PS3 again.
If MS wins November, that's all fine and dandy except they had to have a hell of a November sale to do it, whereas Sony hasn't had to do anything.
If MS loses November, then they are in an even worse position than they thought since they had a hell of a November sale and Sony did nothing, but Sony would have still outsold them.
The issue that Microsoft is going to have to contend with is that they won't be able to beat Sony if they continue to focus on only America and Britain and will only be able to tie Sony at best. MS needs to expand their focus beyond just America and Britain if they do still wish to beat Sony because Sony is not going to make something like the PS3 again.
vinnygambini
Why are strippers at the U.N. bad when they're great at strip clubs???
Watch Dogs confirmed not a major release, Ubisoft am cry
I so forgot about Watch Dogs lol
Ubisoft am cry indeed hahah
yeah, if PS4 wins people will say that Xbox One is doomed. If XBO wins is expected.
FinalStageBoss
Banned
It's still fun to make predictions though.
There is no need to be upset.
Aquamarine
Member
We'll see how far Newegg wants to take the deal.
It could end up with 20,000+ sold if Newegg keeps it up.
PS4 + XBO might be close this month, and the extra 20,000+ consoles sold that this deal could generate could potentially push the PS4 over the edge to the #1 position.
If xbox can't outsell ps4 with all these sales. They might really be fucked.