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[Nirolak]

The problem is that even when companies conjure major hits in Japan, like Youkai Watch, the overall software sales don't increase. Looking at Dengeki numbers for Week 51 of aggregate software in the current FY, 2014 values for 3DS are roughly the same as 2013 values, despite Youkai Watch, a stronger holiday lineup, and a bigger install base. That means, in the current market, when a major hit appears, other games suffer. Kudos to Level-5 for getting a major hit in such a competitive shrinking market, but most of its success is cannibalizing other games.

To think the market could accomodate a lot of major hits in the state it is, is quite similar to the SE/Eidos (and a lot of other companies too) belief that giving AAA treatment to average selling IPs would make them sell like CoD and AssCreed. The results were losses despite better than average sales or, in extreme cases, bankruptcy.

See, with the second paragraph in specific, this is an area I really disagree with people. I feel that the overall effort from publishers to chase CoD/AC style sales was actually astonishingly successful.

Here are just a few examples off the top of my head.

Far Cry 2: 2.9 million
Far Cry 3: 10 million

Red Dead Revolver: It did around 920K in NPD, so let's be really generous and say 3 million, though I think 2 million is far more likely given I can't find any other statements about this game's success.
Red Dead Redemption: 12.5 million

Battlefield 2: 2.25 million
Battlefield: Bad Company: I can't watch the video on GameTrailer's site anymore, but I remember in the GTTV episode about Bad Company 2 they mentioned it eventually got to 2.5 million. However, we do know it did at least 1.6 million.
Battlefield: Bad Company 2: 9 million
Battlefield 3: 17 million

Oblivion: 3 million
Skyrim: 20 million

This is before we even get to Call of Duty itself being an average selling series that got pushed into a 20-25 million an entry behemoth.

There are also more oblique cases like the practically dead Spyro series being rebooted into Skylanders and then selling 175 millions and earning $2 billion.

If we want to focus on Assassin's Creed type success - the game that's a huge hit from the first entry despite being a mediocre product - we just saw that process repeated twice. Watch Dogs has already made it over 9 million copies, which is over the 8 million the first Assassin's Creed did, and was similarly originally a spin-off of an existing dying franchise (though it was Driver: Chicago instead of Prince of Persia: Assassins).

Even if we take Square Enix to focus specifically on the company you mentioned, Tomb Raider's reboot was ultimately hugely successful, taking a series that was selling 2.6 million and having it sell over 6.5 million copies and exceed profit expectations[url].

Hitman Absolution wasn't the same kind of success, but it still went from [url=http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/new-hitman-absolution-game-uses-187550]2.1 million copies to 3.6 million.

Were there failures? Absolutely, but we still ended up with a whole bunch of really huge series from this effort.

I don't know if many new major hits could turn around the tendency of shrinking software sales, but the risk is high for anyone willing to try. Youkai Watch has found the ideal condition for establishing a major IP, which is a stagnant market relying on the same old major IPs. If there were many IPs flourishing, chances are high that the attention would be divided, and they wouldn't grow much. It would be like all the action-hunting games on Vita: it wouldn't take long till the first "major" game flopped because the market can't simply accomodate all those games that were coming.

I agree that something must be done in order to either increase the number of people purchasing games or increasing the number of games purchased by each people, and that is on publishers to discover what to do to revert the trend. But I don't think that doing what Level-5 did is repeatable right now.

Now, this is a more specific case than what I listed above certainly. The Japanese dedicated market itself could be in such a state that even pouring a bunch of money into a top notch quality, notably marketable game will still results in the market going "Eh, who cares?" and ignoring it. However, if that's the case, I think we're talking about a market that's on the fast train to irrelevance, since it suggests consumers are fundamentally not interested in buying software for dedicated devices beyond what they're already doing (and doing less of every year) even if they're notably appealing.

However, given Level 5's ability to repeatedly launch major new franchises, managing to hit new heights as they go, and Nintendo's noted success, we're looking at examples of companies actually able to take the current situation and really still find a lot of success.

Now, there's certainly an argument to be made that going out and trying to make million sellers for dedicated devices in Japan is not a worthwhile endeavor for these companies, because there's way more money being made on mobile and in the West - not to mention that dedicated devices aren't on the up and up - which is certainly a fair argument. Ultimately though, I believe that the potential to have more major successes has existed and even still exists. Whether no one else is going for that because they don't think it's worthwhile or they simply are unable to is certainly debatable, but I do feel we will see a smaller publisher like Level 5 take advantage of that potential in the future and continue to build more major franchises even if the market continues to notably decline.

 

[monpiece]

next N handheld will probably be just one pixel. but XL size, and in 3D

And it would have more gaming variety than Neo Geo X.

 

[Vena]

So MC has the PS4, next week, probably over 1mil finally. But Famitsu seems like it will be a few tens of thousand under the bar for a few weeks longer. (So, around 200k+ units under the PS3 either way, and that was at an absurd price-point in its first year. No?)

Not all that good either way.

 

[Dr. Feel Good]

See, with the second paragraph in specific, this is an area I really disagree with people. I feel that the overall effort from publishers to chase CoD/AC style sales was actually astonishingly successful.

Here are just a few examples off the top of my head.

Far Cry 2: 2.9 million
Far Cry 3: 10 million

Red Dead Revolver: It did around 920K in NPD, so let's be really generous and say 3 million, though I think 2 million is far more likely given I can't find any other statements about this game's success.
Red Dead Redemption: 12.5 million

Battlefield 2: 2.25 million
Battlefield: Bad Company: I can't watch the video on GameTrailer's site anymore, but I remember in the GTTV episode about Bad Company 2 they mentioned it eventually got to 2.5 million. However, we do know it did at least 1.6 million.
Battlefield: Bad Company 2: 9 million
Battlefield 3: 17 million

Oblivion: 3 million
Skyrim: 20 million

This is before we even get to Call of Duty itself being an average selling series that got pushed into a 20-25 million an entry behemoth.

There are also more oblique cases like the practically dead Spyro series being rebooted into Skylanders and then selling 175 millions and earning $2 billion.

If we want to focus on Assassin's Creed type success - the game that's a huge hit from the first entry despite being a mediocre product - we just saw that process repeated twice. Watch Dogs has already made it over 9 million copies, which is over the 8 million the first Assassin's Creed did, and was similarly originally a spin-off of an existing dying franchise (though it was Driver: Chicago instead of Prince of Persia: Assassins).

Even if we take Square Enix to focus specifically on the company you mentioned, Tomb Raider's reboot was ultimately hugely successful, taking a series that was selling 2.6 million and having it sell over 6.5 million copies and exceed profit expectations[url].

Hitman Absolution wasn't the same kind of success, but it still went from [url=http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/new-hitman-absolution-game-uses-187550]2.1 million copies to 3.6 million.

Were there failures? Absolutely, but we still ended up with a whole bunch of really huge series from this effort.



Now, this is a more specific case than what I listed above certainly. The Japanese dedicated market itself could be in such a state that even pouring a bunch of money into a top notch quality, notably marketable game will still results in the market going "Eh, who cares?" and ignoring it. However, if that's the case, I think we're talking about a market that's on the fast train to irrelevance, since it suggests consumers are fundamentally not interested in buying software for dedicated devices beyond what they're already doing (and doing less of every year) even if they're notably appealing.

However, given Level 5's ability to repeatedly launch major new franchises, managing to hit new heights as they go, and Nintendo's noted success, we're looking at examples of companies actually able to take the current situation and really still find a lot of success.

Now, there's certainly an argument to be made that going out and trying to make million sellers for dedicated devices in Japan is not a worthwhile endeavor for these companies, because there's way more money being made on mobile and in the West - not to mention that dedicated devices aren't on the up and up - which is certainly a fair argument. Ultimately though, I believe that the potential to have more major successes has existed and even still exists. Whether no one else is going for that because they don't think it's worthwhile or they simply are unable to is certainly debatable, but I do feel we will see a smaller publisher like Level 5 take advantage of that potential in the future and continue to build more major franchises even if the market continues to notably decline.

I feel like you're taking the only handful of successful titles to do this though, not to mention games from EA, Activision, Ubi, and Rockstar... Companies that have the most power in the industry right now. Think about Capcom (Lost Planet, Resident Evil, Dead Rising, etc.), Sony (Heavenly Sword, Resistance, Killzone, etc.) and other Japanese companies specifically and you can see a lot went through a shitty chase the western model and fail period which brought to layoffs and closures.

My concern with the major games you pointed out that were successful is thst they are now setting a bar far too high to sustain. Tomb Raider was originally deemed unsuccessful however saw legs that proved to break even (+ HD version). Management sees how many units it sold and expects more moving forward without the realization that it's possible the budget is inflated or needs to come down to reality. These games will not sustain indefinitely in popularity, we continually see that with milked franchises.

 

[cw_sasuke]

I certainly hope the 4DS will have a better screen than 480p, 3D or not 3D.

Funny that you mention battery life and good looking games, because the low res. screen of the 3DS didn't really help with that (and I'm one of those happy with how most 3DS game look, despite how crap screenshots and videos usually make them look).

Doubt they'll only release one configuration of the portable. 4DS XL or 4DS tablet launching later can still support running the games at higher resolution.

Cheap and powerful main system should launch first to establish a userbase as fast as possible, more expensive SKUs can be released later.

 

[Graphics Horse]

So MC has the PS4, next week, probably over 1mil finally. But Famitsu seems like it will be a few tens of thousand under the bar for a few weeks longer. (So, around 200k+ units under the PS3 either way, and that was at an absurd price-point in its first year. No?)

Not all that good either way.

Are you comparing 12 month ps3 vs just over 10 month ps4? Not that I think it'll catch up or anything.

 

[crinale]

http://gamesmaya.blog98.fc2.com/blog-entry-2704.html

Maya's blog says SCE Japan's president has visited retailer's meeting and told that PS4 has hit 1M in Japanese market, along with the WW 18.5M news.

And now she wants to go to Spain, after the souvenir I brought to her today lol

On topic:
Sony (like Nintendo) uses Media Create as a Source. That confirms what we're expecting.

Oh so that's you she's referring to, cool

 

[hiska-kun]

http://gamesmaya.blog98.fc2.com/blog-entry-2704.html

Maya's blog says SCE Japan's president has visited retailer's meeting and told that PS4 has hit 1M in Japanese market, along with the WW 18.5M news.

And now she wants to go to Spain, after the souvenir I brought to her today lol

On topic:
Sony (like Nintendo) uses Media Create as a Source. That confirms what we're expecting.

 

[Vena]

Are you comparing 12 month ps3 vs just over 10 month ps4? Not that I think it'll catch up or anything.

No, I should be looking at 10/10 but I may be wrong, so feel free to correct.

 

[Nirolak]

I feel like you're taking the only handful of successful titles to do this though, not to mention games from EA, Activision, Ubi, and Rockstar... Companies that have the most power in the industry right now. Think about Capcom (Lost Planet, Resident Evil, Dead Rising, etc.), Sony (Heavenly Sword, Resistance, Killzone, etc.) and other Japanese companies specifically and you can see a lot went through a shitty chase the western model and fail period which brought to layoffs and closures.

I would argue that Namco, Capcom, Square Enix, Sega, and Konami are the equivalent of EA, Activision, Ubisoft, and Take-Two in Japan.

Level 5 I would compare to ZeniMax (Bethesda) since they're both relatively small private companies with a mix of huge successes, some failures, and more boutique type projects.

My expectation is certainly not that Spike Chunsoft, Koei Tecmo, or Idea Factory launch the next wave of major hits.

That said with Capcom you listed Resident Evil and Dead Rising which I actually feel were very successful for what they were. RE5 hit 6.7 million units, RE6 hit 6 million, and Dead Rising 2 hit 2.9 million which was the first entry it was outsourced to the West. They're Capcom's first, third, and twelfth best sellers respectively. Dead Rising 3 did notably less at 1.5 million, but it was an Xbox One launch title.

Similarly Sony did manage to start getting some larger hits between TLOU (7 million prior to the remaster) and Uncharted at ~5 million.

My concern with the major games you pointed out that were successful is thst they are now setting a bar far too high to sustain. Tomb Raider was originally deemed unsuccessful however saw legs that proved to break even (+ HD version). Management sees how many units it sold and expects more moving forward without the realization that it's possible the budget is inflated or needs to come down to reality. These games will not sustain indefinitely in popularity, we continually see that with milked franchises.

Certainly some franchises can't sustain forever, however I listed a whole bunch of series that only grew big recently or were actually new IPs as of last generation (or in the case of Watch Dogs, this generation).

We can add in Destiny to the pile and Borderlands 2 did over 10 million copies.

Then we do see some series sticking around for quite a while and growing. Diablo 3 went over 20 million copies.

Obviously we did see failures in the industry. I don't think anyone would deny that, but out of those failures we still saw many incredibly strong franchises rise and that many of the companies who made them seem to be able to keep launching new successful franchises or notably growing old ones. We see several of them having notable success in new business areas at the same time like EA's notably increasing digital business (be it DLC, full game downloads, or mobile microtransactions) or Activision's success in f2p through Blizzard (and the kids market was also a new addition with Skylanders not long ago).

I guess I just don't really see the issue in having failures if you're gaining hits so large they make up for them 10 times over. Like even if The Crew totally bombs after its 6 year development cycle, the success of Watch Dogs is going to be a gigantic boon to Ubisoft and will be the real takeaway from this fiscal year.

 

[Spiegel]

And now she wants to go to Spain, after the souvenir I brought to her today lol

What was it?

(Spanish gaffer here)

 

[crinale]

What was it?

(Spanish gaffer here)

The blog I posted was by a game store owner lady and mentions about hiska-kun.
He visited her and gave her a souvenir, making her want to travel to Spain because of it.

 

[FluxWaveZ]

http://gamesmaya.blog98.fc2.com/blog-entry-2704.html

Maya's blog says SCE Japan's president has visited retailer's meeting and told that PS4 has hit 1M in Japanese market, along with the WW 18.5M news

Happy new year, PS4.

 

[Spiegel]

The blog I posted was by a game store owner lady and mentions about hiska-kun.
He visited her and gave her a souvenir, making her want to travel to Spain because of it.

Yeah, I understood what he meant.
I was curious about the souvenir, me being from Spain and all that. Unless it's something private then nvm the question, hiska-kun.

 

[Nirolak]

Given it was teased in Dengeki PlayStation, but Falcom is tweeting about mobile, browser, and MMORPGs in relation to the game, it's plausible that Tokyo Xanadu is our next example of a smartphone/Vita game.

 

[Oregano]

Given it was teased in Dengeki PlayStation, but Falcom is tweeting about mobile, browser, and MMORPGs in relation to the game, it's plausible that Tokyo Xanadu is our next example of a smartphone/Vita game.

I think this reinforces that the lack of a Vita successor would not necessarily mean more support for the 3DS successor.

 

[Mpl90]

I think this reinforces that the lack of a Vita successor would not necessarily mean more support for the 3DS successor.

Or that these kind of games could be mobile/Vita/3DS successor multiplatform efforts in the future ;P

 

[Nirolak]

I think this reinforces that the lack of a Vita successor would not necessarily mean more support for the 3DS successor.

Yes, that I do think is true.

I guess I'd phrase my previous comments in the light of "If they want to keep making games on something that's a dedicated portable I don't see any issue with them just jumping on 3DS."

If that's not actually a compelling scenario for the studios in question, then obviously they won't.

That's why a few months ago I was saying that Nintendo should be doing outreach already for their next platform (asking what devs want, supporting other business models in a serious way) to try and secure developers before they start transitioning away if they want to try and ensure they actually get these developers on their platform. I'd also put a lot of effort into supporting multiplatform efforts on that front since it's much better to have a version of something than to have no version of it.

 

[Oregano]

Yes, that I do think is true.

I guess I'd phrase my previous comments in the light of "If they want to keep making games on something that's a dedicated portable I don't see any issue with them just jumping on 3DS."

If that's not actually a compelling scenario for the studios in question, then obviously they won't.

That's why a few months ago I was saying that Nintendo should be doing outreach already for their next platform (asking what devs want, supporting other business models in a serious way) to try and secure developers before they start transitioning away if they want to try and ensure they actually get these developers on their platform. I'd also put a lot of effort into supporting multiplatform efforts on that front since it's much better to have a version of something than to have no version of it.

I definitely agree with the bolded but there must be something terrible about the way Nintendo handles things behind the scenes if Vita is seen as compelling but not a potential 3DS successor.

I also think to their credit the F2P market for the 3DS seems to be somewhat healthy with Denpa Men FREE being a big hit for Genius Sonority. I wouldn't have expect that four years ago.

 

[Mpl90]

Yes, that I do think is true.

I guess I'd phrase my previous comments in the light of "If they want to keep making games on something that's a dedicated portable I don't see any issue with them just jumping on 3DS."

If that's not actually a compelling scenario for the studios in question, then obviously they won't.

That's why a few months ago I was saying that Nintendo should be doing outreach already for their next platform (asking what devs want, supporting other business models in a serious way) to try and secure developers before they start transitioning away if they want to try and ensure they actually get these developers on their platform. I'd also put a lot of effort into supporting multiplatform efforts on that front since it's much better to have a version of something than to have no version of it.

Seriously, without a Vita successor, I don't see these devs going mobile, unless for special titles like possibly Tokyo Xanadu, considering the kind of game they make and their audience (and the current mobile landscape which is not that good for paid games, probably toxic for "premium" priced titles). I can see them staying on Vita for a while, even after 4DS has been launched. I can see them going multi PS4/Vita, which is actually something some of them are already doing. But, sincerly, I can't see all of them completely ignoring 4DS, especially if it's powerful enough to support ports of their Vita/PS4 efforts, especially in 2016 (which is when the next handheld will launch) when Vita will see far less attention than now. I'm not saying they will invade the platform with games, but I can see some of them starting being more open on developing games with a Nintendo platform in mind as well. Just for clarification, we're talking about devs like Falcom, Nis, Gust, Idea Factory & co., heavily linked to Sony platforms, right?

Certainly, Nintendo cannot stand on its laurels, but has to be more proactive for them. However, I think they are already supporting different business models, as Initial D, Denpa Men RPG Free and Million Arthur show.

 

[Nirolak]

They do seem to be getting better at f2p, yes.

 

[MauMau]

Software sales were never the issue of a NintendOS concept it's pretty much a given that those would increase. Hardware is another question entirely and is the biggest and most deadly issue to the concept, since it essentially encourages you to buy only one platform and neither platform has any real system sellers, should it's sales wane or are not good in the first place.

I don't understand the issue. Money is in software, not hardware. Plus what you just described would result in an insane attach rate, making the total corporate margin (hw +sw) per hardware sold even better.

 

[Psycho_Mantis]

http://gamesmaya.blog98.fc2.com/blog-entry-2704.html

Maya's blog says SCE Japan's president has visited retailer's meeting and told that PS4 has hit 1M in Japanese market, along with the WW 18.5M news.



Oh so that's you she's referring to, cool

GG Famitsu.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

New 3DS 2014: 1,236,364
Vita 2014: 1,168,570

And the battle for 2015 begins.

 

[Oregano]

New 3DS 2014: 1,236,364
Vita 2014: 1,168,570

And the battle for 2015 begins.

Didn't you hear? Vita is going to outsell 3DS this year.

 

[Mpl90]

Now that I just thought about F2P on 3DS, I wonder when we'll get updates about all of them: Denpa Men FREE RPG is possibly at 1,8 millions after the Holidays, if not at 2 millions already, Initial D was at 600,000 downloads a few weeks ago (...unexpected, and with no reason at all, considering its "gameplay") and Million Arthur could be at 300,000 right now. Also, I wonder when we'll hear about other F2P titles hitting 3DS.

 

[Sammy Samusu]

Didn't you hear? Vita is going to outsell 3DS this year.

#MH201Vita

 

[Graphics Horse]

No, I should be looking at 10/10 but I may be wrong, so feel free to correct.

I get 1,119,480 as 10 months, but it only reached 1,246,202 after 12 months.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=187633
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=206308

Doesn't really matter either way, it would have to stay at 30k per week to catch up and I don't see that happening.

 

[Nirolak]

Seriously, without a Vita successor, I don't see these devs going mobile, unless for special titles like possibly Tokyo Xanadu, considering the kind of game they make and their audience (and the current mobile landscape which is not that good for paid games, probably toxic for "premium" priced titles). I can see them staying on Vita for a while, even after 4DS has been launched. I can see them going multi PS4/Vita, which is actually something some of them are already doing. But, sincerly, I can't see all of them completely ignoring 4DS, especially if it's powerful enough to support ports of their Vita/PS4 efforts, especially in 2016 (which is when the next handheld will launch) when Vita will see far less attention than now. I'm not saying they will invade the platform with games, but I can see some of them starting being more open on developing games with a Nintendo platform in mind as well. Just for clarification, we're talking about devs like Falcom, Nis, Gust, Idea Factory & co., heavily linked to Sony platforms, right?

Certainly, Nintendo cannot stand on its laurels, but has to be more proactive for them. However, I think they are already supporting different business models, as Initial D, Denpa Men RPG Free and Million Arthur show.

On this specifically the concern would be trying to court the companies before they actually go through the effort of converting their series and/or development teams to be mobile focused.

It's not an easy transition, but it is something developers are willing to tackle if they see it as the way forward.

I mean, as an illustration, Epic, Crytek, Valve, and Blizzard have all started heavily embracing f2p PC games (several of them even exclusively doing so) because that's the way the PC market went and PC is the platform they feel most comfortable on. I like this example because two of these companies were actually notable console developers at one point in their life and the others are gigantic studios in terms of prominence.

Going more Japan focused, Monster Strike is helmed by Okamoto (who was once a very notable Capcom developer), P&D is made by Gung-Ho, and both Sega and Konami have heavily retooled with large focuses on mobile. Square Enix obviously has ramped up their mobile focus as well, and Namco seems to put out about as many mobile games as they do retail games.

I don't think the concern is so much that "series X will go to mobile exactly as it is" as it is "the developer of series X will start working on mobile with either a heavily modified version of their game or a new IP".

Like Mevius is made by 1st Production Department staff and seems to be people from Final Fantasy XIII, who ended up focusing on mobile instead of a handheld when they didn't make something for a console.

Basically I think Nintendo's minimum goal should be trying to court developers to the point that even a mobile focused game still appears on their platform if it has any logical appeal to the core audience, like how the new game from the Valk people is on both mobile and the Vita even though it's clearly a mobile-first f2p title.

 

[L~A]

Now that I just thought about F2P on 3DS, I wonder when we'll get updates about all of them: Denpa Men FREE RPG is possibly at 1,8 millions after the Holidays, if not at 2 millions already, Initial D was at 600,000 downloads a few weeks ago (...unexpected, and with no reason at all, considering its "gameplay") and Million Arthur could be at 300,000 right now. Also, I wonder when we'll hear about other F2P titles hitting 3DS.

Initial D is getting a major update really soon (that 2nd thingy me and someone else mentionned a few weeks ago). No idea about total DL numbers, but I guess we should hear something soon.

 

[Nirolak]

So I never noticed this before but it looks like Wonder Flick relaunched as Wonder FlickR back in September?

At least that's what the AppAnnie app name and grossing chart seems to suggest.

Edit:

Yeah it looks like that here too: http://www.wonderflick.jp/

 

[L~A]

So I never noticed this before but it looks like Wonder Flick relaunched as Wonder FlickR back in September?

At least that's what the AppAnnie app name and grossing chart seems to suggest.

Edit:

Yeah it looks like that here too: http://www.wonderflick.jp/

Yup, they sure did. Don't remember the list of improvements/fixes/new stuff, but it's old news... and it seems it went unnoticed, actually. Haven't heard anything about it since the announcement, actually. Really curious how "quiet" everything is about that game... like nobody cares, not even Level-5. Which is why I believe the console version has either been canned, or will only be for PS4 now. Let's just hope for PS4 fans it's not the game they teased for E3

 

[Nirolak]

Yup, they sure did. Don't remember the list of improvements/fixes/new stuff, but it's old news... and it seems it went unnoticed, actually. Haven't heard anything about it since the announcement, actually. Really curious how "quiet" everything is about that game... like nobody cares, not even Level-5. Which is why I believe the console version has either been canned, or will only be for PS4 now. Let's just hope for PS4 fans it's not the game they teased for E3

Their twitter account seems pretty active, but I think it's just announcing events: https://twitter.com/WonderFlick_PR?...tw_p=embeddedtimeline&tw_w=402638832996069376

 

[Mpl90]

On this specifically the concern would be trying to court the companies before they actually go through the effort of converting their series and/or development teams to be mobile focused.

It's not an easy transition, but it is something developers are willing to tackle if they see it as the way forward.

I mean, as an illustration, Epic, Crytek, Valve, and Blizzard have all started heavily embracing f2p PC games (several of them even exclusively doing so) because that's the way the PC market went and PC is the platform they feel most comfortable on. I like this example because two of these companies were actually notable console developers at one point in their life and the others are gigantic studios in terms of prominence.

Going more Japan focused, Monster Strike is helmed by Okamoto (who was once a very notable Capcom developer), P&D is made by Gung-Ho, and both Sega and Konami have heavily retooled with large focuses on mobile. Square Enix obviously has ramped up their mobile focus as well, and Namco seems to put out about as many mobile games as they do retail games.

I don't think the concern is so much that "series X will go to mobile exactly as it is" as it is "the developer of series X will start working on mobile with either a heavily modified version of their game or a new IP".

Like Mevius is made by 1st Production Department staff and seems to be people from Final Fantasy XIII, who ended up focusing on mobile instead of a handheld when they didn't make something for a console.

Basically I think Nintendo's minimum goal should be trying to court developers to the point that even a mobile focused game still appears on their platform if it has any logical appeal to the core audience, like how the new game from the Valk people is on both mobile and the Vita even though it's clearly a mobile-first f2p title.

Surely getting as much mobile multiplatform games as possible should be one of Nintendo's top priorities for next gen, in order to broad their overall lineup. As already said, recently we've seen more F2P titles on 3DS, some of them with good (Initial D), if not great results (Denpa Men), at least on the front of download numbers. And we shouldn't forget how well Puzzle & Dragons Z (a retail version of the mobile megahit) sold back in 2013, so it's not like Nintendo refuses F2P model / franchises and exclude them from being released on the platform, and they probably got better in getting them in the past year. Also, we see that Vita can get multi releases with iOS/Android, despite the very low installed base (and, in Chaos Rings III's case, it probably represented the main SKU, sales-wise). So, I think with a better hardware, Nintendo will have a far easier time in getting those titles on their platform. It's the same reason why Wonderflick should be on everything bar 3DS, while Layton 7 is iOS/Android/3DS.

Spoiler

I know I've brought up some completely disappeared games as examples, but I hope it's clear what I mean :lol

 

[Vena]

I get 1,119,480 as 10 months, but it only reached 1,246,202 after 12 months.
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=187633
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=206308

Doesn't really matter either way, it would have to stay at 30k per week to catch up and I don't see that happening.

Ahh seems I may have accidentally looked at the wrong week then! Thank you.

 

[Mpl90]

So I never noticed this before but it looks like Wonder Flick relaunched as Wonder FlickR back in September?

At least that's what the AppAnnie app name and grossing chart seems to suggest.

Edit:

Yeah it looks like that here too: http://www.wonderflick.jp/

What does that "300" on the left top corner mean?

 

[Nirolak]

What does that "300" on the left top corner mean?

I'm not sure.

I don't think it can be downloads, because they seemed to have 1.5 million back here: https://translate.googleusercontent...000061&usg=ALkJrhiETok7bqYV_p0Bw97MTWAi9DimNw

 

[mao2]

What does that "300" on the left top corner mean?

Over 3 million downloads.

 

[Nirolak]

Oh, that makes a lot more sense.

I keep forgetting the 10,000 thing.

 

[Mpl90]

Over 3 million downloads.

...Considering how it's between 100,000 and 500,000 downloads on Google Play, it means more than 2,500,000 downloads on iOS. And such a big amount of downloads highlights even more how bad it's doing, grossing-wise.

EDIT: Wait. Right: Wonderflick became WonderflickR a few months ago. Probably, that 100,000-500,000 number refers only to WonderFlickR on Android, not to overall WonderFlick (WF + WFR) downloads on the platform.

 

[Nirolak]

...Considering how it's between 100,000 and 500,000 downloads on Google Play, it means more than 2,500,000 downloads on iOS. And such a big amount of downloads highlights even more how bad it's doing, grossing-wise.

This also highlights the iOS/Android disparity that seems to happen for a lot of games if it's between 5 to 30 times higher on iOS.

 

[Nirolak]

Here are the grossing charts for the two platforms:

 

[Mpl90]

No, Nirolak, it's like I said in the edit. It's because there are two Wonderflick: one (the original) that has been discontinued and the other (WonderflickR) which is now the main app.

http://www.appannie.com/apps/google-play/app/com.Level5.WonderFlick1/

This is the AppAnnie page for the original. Between 500,000 to 1,000,000 of downloads. Combined with 100,000 to 500,000 downloads of WFR on Android, it gives us a pretty big 600,000 to 1,500,000 spectrum for overall downloads. I suppose it's probably around 1,000,000 overall, so a 1:2 ratio between Android and iOS.

Actually, I remember that this was the usual ratio for Square-Enix games on mobile, and I thought it was the rather usual one, with some exceptions (especially on the "game" front). Are there so many examples of apps doing 5 to 30 times better on iOS in Japan? How much in the gaming department?

 

[Nirolak]

Okay that makes more sense. It seems the iOS one was updated while the Android one for some reason was replaced.

Actually, I remember that this was the usual ratio for Square-Enix games on mobile, and I thought it was the rather usual one, with some exceptions (especially on the "game" front). Are there so many examples of apps doing 5 to 30 times better on iOS in Japan? How much in the gaming department?

That would be notably unusual I believe. I just meant it highlighted a disparity between the platforms as opposed to the literal ratio.

Like the graphs above also are much less stable on iOS than Android, which tends to be common, so I think there must be something causing this.

 

[Brazil]

Level-5 had a huge Wonder Flick R stand back in Jump Festa.

It was empty the entire time I was there. But obviously this is just anecdotal.

 

[Mpl90]

Okay that makes more sense. It seems the iOS one was updated while the Android one for some reason was replaced.


That would be notably unusual I believe. I just meant it highlighted a disparity between the platforms as opposed to the literal ratio.

Like the graphs above also are much less stable on iOS than Android, which tends to be common, so I think there must be something causing this.

Ah, got it. So, 1:2 could be the more common ratio between Android and iOS sales, right?

 

[BriBri]

Initial D is getting a major update really soon (that 2nd thingy me and someone else mentionned a few weeks ago). No idea about total DL numbers, but I guess we should hear something soon.

It's already been updated.

 

[Nirolak]

Ah, got it. So, 1:2 could be the more common ratio between Android and iOS sales, right?

Well, there are a ton of Android devices out there, so it sounds more likely, but I don't actually have stats.

 

[Darius]

Given it was teased in Dengeki PlayStation, but Falcom is tweeting about mobile, browser, and MMORPGs in relation to the game, it's plausible that Tokyo Xanadu is our next example of a smartphone/Vita game.

"Falcom recruiting staff for Smartphone, Browser, and MMO development (Tokyo Xanadu)"

Looks like this is quite recent, wasnt Tokyo Xanadu announced months ago? It seems like it started as a PSV exclusive but due to disappointing sales and a rather bad outlook of the system, they want to branch out.

 

[Mpl90]

Ah, right, since I made the analysis in the Tokyo Xanadu thread, maybe I should post it here as well, since it's far more IT in MC threads.

___________________________________

It hovers at about 200 on Google Play and dips as low as 350 on iOS, but mostly stays in the 200-300 band.

Hovering at about 200 on GP, huh? Well, if that insane failure (compared to predecessors) that's been Chaos Rings III left to us (it only recently went over 5,000 downloads on GP, absolutely dreadful), is a possible estimate of what means being around 200th

This is a Chaos Rings III's analysis I made back in November

http://neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=138724180&highlight=chaos+rings#post138724180

Reposting Grossing Ranking + correlated analysis for clearness

October 18th, 369th Overall - 100 < x < 500 copies sold --> Yen 280,000 < x < Yen 1,400,000 grossed
October 19th, 288th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold --> Yen 1,400,000 < x < Yen 2,800,000 grossed
October 20th, 238th Overall - 500 < x < 1,000 copies sold --> Yen 1,400,000 < x < Yen 2,800,000 grossed
October 21st, 197th Overall - 1,000 < x < 5,000 copies sold --> Yen 2,800,000 < x < Yen 14,000,000 grossed
...
November 12th, 321st Overall - 1,000 < x < 5,000 copies sold --> Yen 2,800,000 < x < Yen 14,000,000 grossed

For a certain amount of the considered period (up to October 30th, the game stayed in between 100th - 200th confortably, and then it started going down and down). Considering how it went over 1,000 downloads the day it entered top 200, I'll consider the amount of days between October 21st and October 30th, i.e. the last day it was in top 200. So, 10 days.

Daily Grossing Average (October 21st - October 30th) - 280,000 Yen < x < 1,400,000 Yen.

Considering how it just recently the game went over 5,000 downloads LTD, I'd say the DGA for that period is faaaaaar nearer to 280,000 Yen compared to 1,400,000 Yen. Something like 400,000 to 450,000 Yen per day is a possible better estimate, maybe?