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[molnizzle]

In all these threads everyone talks and talks about declining retail software sales as if digital distribution wasn't rapidly expanding on game consoles.

...which also explains why PS4 games are selling worse at retail. You ever tried searching for a game on the Xbone marketplace without using Kinect? Good grief.

 

[Nightengale]

If it was $349 from the start, would have made a difference.

We'll see if that's true come April.

 

[Welfare]

In all these threads everyone talks and talks about declining retail software sales as if digital distribution wasn't rapidly expanding on game consoles.

...which also explains why PS4 games are selling worse at retail. You ever tried searching for a game on the Xbone marketplace without using Kinect? Good grief.

Yeah. It's pretty easy. I have no problems.

 

[ArkkAngel007]

Wow, Wii U did nearly 10K more than I was projecting. Nice to see the year over year increase.

 

[ZSaberLink]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=884312

This would suggest they're hitting their fanbase that's been with them since the SNES/N64/GameCube era to me vastly more than their expanded audience from the Wii era.

If we match that with what's actually selling on the system, it doesn't seem in conflict either.

50% of them could still be parents though. These are just the folks who registered the console. The 18-24 year olds are more of the actual owners w/o kids, etc. 25-34 is kind of a guess at best.

 

[sense]

If you want to continue the conversation, please feel free to PM me but I do not want to derail the thread. This will be the end of my contribution in this thread in relation to the Order.

1 - I'm not dancing around the number whatsoever because shipping a certain amount of copies does not equate whether it is a success or a failure. A prime example would be Tomb Raider as you presented, 3 million shipped and yet viewed as a company failure until it broke the 6 million barrier, where it eventually started being profitable.

2 - As per my previous post, if the Order achieves the same threshold as Beyond: Two Souls, I would view that as a disappointment. As such, if it exceeds that threshold, I think one should be pleased by the result.

3 - I really don't know where you got this from my post. All I mentioned is that: "the Order caters to the same audience that buys COD, Destiny, Evolve, Dying Light, Watch Dogs, Assassin's Creed, etc. - it's a much more competitive and crowded environment." In essence, asking that audience to invest in a new IP at a 59.99$ price tag is a much more difficult sell than one could imagine - "the Order did nothing to distinguish from the many."

It is a sales thread and we are discussing the sales potential of an upcoming game so I personally don't view it as a derail but there is not much to discuss further until we see the sales next month I suppose so I will rest my discussion as well but curious to see what the other's predictions are for the game.

 

[travisbickle]

Given that most games are selling better now on Xbox One I don't think Microsoft is in a bad position at all. "Winning" a month is irrelevant.

Considering that all PS4/XB1 titles in the top 10 except 1 released between Aug/Nov last year, then yeah winning a month sales is relevant because nov/dec wins for MS obviously led to higher retail sales of old titles.

Dying Light is the only new release and that sold most on PS4.

 

[Face it Tiger..]

a bit late.. but

Return of the King

 

[Derpyduck]

In all these threads everyone talks and talks about declining retail software sales as if digital distribution wasn't rapidly expanding on game consoles.

...which also explains why PS4 games are selling worse at retail. You ever tried searching for a game on the Xbone marketplace without using Kinect? Good grief.

Yes, it's no different than searching for games on PS4. You manually type in the name or you wade through a long list of games.

Considering that all PS4/XB1 titles in the top 10 except 1 released between Aug/Nov last year, then yeah winning a month sales is relevant because nov/dec wins for MS obviously led to higher retail sales of old titles.

Dying Light is the only new release and that sold most on PS4.

This is terrible logic. The PS4 sold more new consoles to new customers than Xbox One did in January, yet Xbox One saw more software sales. Or are we meant to presume that the Xbox One owners who bought a console in November waited until January to buy their new games?

 

[ZSaberLink]

244k is what I have it at.

Oh... that actually was pretty good for a $600 console ...

 

[Welfare]

Oh... that actually was pretty good for a $600 console ...

lol yeah. It then dropped to 127k the next month.

 

[Busaiku]

Man, even accounting for New 3DS XL anticipation, that is beyond awful for 3DS.
New 3DS XL is not really gonna help, the platform's done.

 

[Calamari41]

Man, even accounting for New 3DS XL anticipation, that is beyond awful for 3DS.
New 3DS XL is not really gonna help, the platform's done.

Did I miss the 3DS number?

 

[Busaiku]

No hard numbers, but Vita being 39% of 3DS is not a good look at all.

 

[EventHorizon]

This is terrible logic. The PS4 sold more new consoles to new customers than Xbox One did in January, yet Xbox One saw more software sales. Or are we meant to presume that the Xbox One owners who bought a console in November waited until January to buy their new games?

January sales <<< Holiday sales

Many people got an XB1 for Christmas and are now buying older cheaper games. As was pointed out, the PS4 leads in the only new game on the list. That means this is a one time deal and will not repeat itself.

 

[Derpyduck]

Man, even accounting for New 3DS XL anticipation, that is beyond awful for 3DS.
New 3DS XL is not really gonna help, the platform's done.

Nintendo knows the new 3DS isn't going to do much. They wouldn't have pulled the charging cable from the box if they thought they had a chance of attracting new customers.

January sales <<< Holiday sales

Many people got an XB1 for Christmas and are now buying older cheaper games. As was pointed out, the PS4 leads in the only new game on the list. That means this is a one time deal and will not repeat itself.

Why wouldn't I as a PS4 owner also want older games at a cheaper price?

 

[Calamari41]

No numbers, but Vita being 39% of 3DS is not a good look at all.

OK, that's what I figured you were talking about. Definitely pathetic, but maybe New 3DS anticipation cut off sales for Old 3DS at the knees this month. Will be very interesting to see what we see a month from now if Nintendo doesn't mention anything about the launch on their own.

 

[bananafactory]

This is terrible logic. The PS4 sold more new consoles to new customers than Xbox One did in January, yet Xbox One saw more software sales. Or are we meant to presume that the Xbox One owners who bought a console in November waited until January to buy their new games?

PS4 sold ~ 40k more systems than XB1 in January, but XB1 sold several hundred thousand more systems in December. Many of those people who got an XB1 on December 25 are still going to be stocking up on games in January.

 

[Opiate]

PS4 and Xbox One have fallen behind PS2.

I think it's a foregone conclusion that this generation will be smaller than the last, which everyone seems to shrug off for some reason but would be the first time ever for that to occur. Consoles have been growing their audience steadily for as long as most of us have been alive, but that trend has now reversed. All of this, of course, while development costs continue to rise.

But to your observation, this generation may also end up being smaller than the PS2 generation. That's not nearly as clear cut -- we may get more than 200M consoles this gen -- but it's possible. Xbox One is a much better second place than Xbox was, but Wii U is a much worse third place, and PS4 is unlikely to be as shining a first place, either.

 

[travisbickle]

This is terrible logic. The PS4 sold more new consoles to new customers than Xbox One did in January, yet Xbox One saw more software sales. Or are we meant to presume that the Xbox One owners who bought a console in November waited until January to buy their new games?

The XB1 didn't "see more software sales", it had a higher attach rate of software for the month to console sales.

The number one selling game, the only new release for the month, sold most on PS4.

 

[Three]

This is terrible logic. The PS4 sold more new consoles to new customers than Xbox One did in January, yet Xbox One saw more software sales. Or are we meant to presume that the Xbox One owners who bought a console in November waited until January to buy their new games?

That's where you are going wrong. We have no info on software sales, only attach rate. We only have a top ten. A bunch of games in the retail top 10 are easy to explain. NBA 2k14, Destiny had digital discounts in January that made it lower cost than physical not to mention were bundled and sold with a lot of consoles prior. The digital sales in January from those sales would not contribute to NPD.

http://m.neogaf.com/showthread.php?t=970070

Those sales would not be tracked even though the codes were sold at retailers. They were general codes that you use to pick any of those games so probably only Sony knows what they spent it on.

 

[Mory Dunz]

Man, even accounting for New 3DS XL anticipation, that is beyond awful for 3DS.
New 3DS XL is not really gonna help, the platform's done.

Better Call Saul

 

[CosmicQueso]

It also helps explain (among many other reasons, of course) why Nintendo's attempts to get the biggest publishers truly on board for the Wii were so unsuccessful, despite the system's popularity; they argued that reduced graphical fidelity could help reduce costs, but that may not be what EA, etc. wanted. Lower production costs meant that companies like Square or Midway could still potentially compete at the highest levels of production.

Again, there were lots of other problems, too, but this is something I don't think Nintendo realized. What they saw as a benefit was perceived as a negligible upside or even a downside by the big four western publishers.

Hmmm would be more plausible if every company didn't try a hundred different Wii games to try and make something stick.

After a while, it just became a waste of time and people resources to make a bunch of games for a console where people bought Nintendo software a majority of the time.

There's also a bit of a hint that these companies knowingly pursued this common goal. I've seen absolutely no evidence of that. Many companies tried everything they could to get the Wii audience and failed, and many were there for the launch of Wii U and we know how that went.

 

[ZSaberLink]

It wouldn't surprise me if one of the Xbone / PS4 eventually passes the Wii in year 6, or something. The Wii fell off quite hard as mobile competition relentlessly ate in to its market.

I kind of doubt it, because I feel like Sony/MS this time can't drag out the cycle as much as they did before. Sony also made a more profitable console this time, so I don't think they'll be stretching it out at high prices to keep from bleeding money. I could see PS4 eventually hit 100M thanks to precedence from the PS1/PS2, but I really doubt the XB1 is going to outsell the 360.

Yes, the only "new" entrant to the top tiers of the market in recent years is a mega billion multimedia conglomerate.

Beyond that EA, Activision, Ubisoft, and Take-Two hold an astronomical portion of the market share.

Outside of Warner, the other growing (but still more niche) publisher is ZeniMax, which is backed by Providence.

Isn't that terrible for the console industry though? Honestly the mobile market is fickle as hell (at least in the US. there are lots of people, so of course there are some success stories, but it's still a low margins, high volume market). I think digital/PC gaming is really the only somewhat sustainable platform really. AAA budgets will eventually have to stop growing so dramatically, and mobile can only survive so long with the current pricing model imo.

I kind of wonder if that's why Apple is trying this?

 

[EventHorizon]

Why wouldn't I as a PS4 owner also want older games at a cheaper price?

You would, but there are a lot more new XB1 owners than new PS4 owners. Even though there are more NEW XB1 owners there are still more PS4 owners overall. That's why Dying Light sold more on the PS4. It was pulling from the entire PS4 install base. The older games were only pulling from new owners since the old owners who would have bought the game already have.

 

[antitrop]

It will be very interesting to see how Dead Island 2's sales stack up next to Dying Light.

 

[Opiate]

Hmmm would be more plausible if every company didn't try a hundred different Wii games to try and make something stick.

After a while, it just became a waste of time and people resources to make a bunch of games for a console where people bought Nintendo software a majority of the time.

There's also a bit of a hint that these companies knowingly pursued this common goal. I've seen absolutely no evidence of that. Many companies tried everything they could to get the Wii audience and failed, and many were there for the launch of Wii U and we know how that went.

We seem to have different memories of events. Can you name publishers who invested their top talent on the Wii? What developers even made games for the system? Infinity Ward didn't. Kojima didn't. Irrational didn't. Valve didn't. DICE didn't. Rockstar didn't. Assassin's Creed team didn't. Blizzard didn't. Epic didn't. Bethesda didn't. Squaresoft didn't throw any of their major teams at it except for the DQ team, which has no pull in the west. THQ didn't really have any super successful developers (that's why they're gone), but the closest they had to it was the Saint's Row team, and they didn't make a game for the Wii, either. I mean, I'm pretty quickly running out of developers who one could have reasonably described as "top tier developers" last generation. Even Madden was outsourced to EA's second tier developers.

Sure, yeah, most companies threw a lot of C teams at the system. But which publishers are you think of when you talk about publishers trying "everything they could?"

 

[Inuhanyou]

Are we gonna snap back to cheering if all the games coming out this see greater boosts in software in those respective months than a month where there is only one new release? Seriously, this gen is hard to predict cause it goes all over the place, but that only means you cant use previous console generation trends to predict the outcome.

You can't cheer on sales of the holiday and then automatically fall into the "they're doomed" talk after a single month of weaker sales

 

[Guamu]

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?t=884312

This would suggest they're hitting their fanbase that's been with them since the SNES/N64/GameCube era to me vastly more than their expanded audience from the Wii era.

If we match that with what's actually selling on the system, it doesn't seem in conflict either.

While I think this is certainly the case. I don't believe we can assure that from that table (mainly because of anecdotal evidence). Our WII U has several digital retail games. 3 are my wife's, 4 are my son's and the rest are mine. But all were bought from my account. A 25-34 male.

So yes, mainly long-time nintendo fans visit the eshop, but it's no so far fetched to believe that the father is the one that buys all the games on those "family console" WIIUs, making the statistic seem even worse.

Yikes.

Yikes indeed

 

[Calamari41]

We seem to have different memories of events. Can you name publishers who invested their top talent on the Wii? Who even made games for the system? Infinity Ward didn't. Kojima didn't. Irrational didn't. Valve didn't. DICE didn't. Rockstar didn't. Assassin's Creed team didn't. Epic didn't. Bethesda didn't. Squaresoft didn't throw any of their major teams at it except for the DQ team, which has no pull in the west. I mean, I'm pretty quickly running out of developers who one could have reasonably described as "top tier developers" last generation.

I mean, yeah, most companies threw a lot of C teams at the system. Which publishers are you think of when you talk about publishers trying "everything they could?"

I mean, shit, EA saw great sales of their annualized sports titles on the Wii. Tiger Woods even sold best on Wii... by far, if I recall correctly. They followed that up by just halting those releases.

 

[AgentP]

This is terrible logic. The PS4 sold more new consoles to new customers than Xbox One did in January, yet Xbox One saw more software sales. Or are we meant to presume that the Xbox One owners who bought a console in November waited until January to buy their new games?

You need to think about it a bit more, the logic is sound. New console owners buy older games. XB1 Sold several hundred thousand more consoles in Dec, they will buy older games like GTA5. New games are driven by install base size.

 

[speculawyer]

Minecraft is a monster. I still don't quite get it.

But then again, I do get it. I've setup a server that my daugher and her remote cousins play on.

 

[noobie]

PS4 finished 2014 almost at Wii levels worldwide, but sales in USA are far from being impressive after launch.

when i said the same thing in different words that PS4 didnt capitalize on its impressive launch i got banned. So be careful. Nothing against the PS4 can be said here.

 

[stryke]

when i said the same thing in different words that PS4 didnt capitalize on its impressive launch i got banned. So be careful. Nothing against the PS4 can be said here.

Spare us the persecution complex.

 

[Inuhanyou]

when i said the same thing in different words that PS4 didnt capitalize on its impressive launch i got banned. So be careful. Nothing against the PS4 can be said here.

I don't think you can take low one month and then justify why your thread asking why sony didn't sell more than 14 mil last year in any kind of self satisfaction. just saying guy, no need for victimization complexes

 

[wmlk]

Sad numbers all around.

 

[Welfare]

Nothing against the PS4 can be said here.

Watch me.

PS4 is not the greatest console ever.

*Runs for cover

...

See nothing happened.

 

[theprodigy]

Watch me.

PS4 is not the greatest console ever.

*Runs for cover

...

See nothing happened.

Welfare
Banned
(Today, 11:58 PM)

Spoiler

Kappa

 

[CosmicQueso]

We seem to have different memories of events. Can you name publishers who invested their top talent on the Wii? Who even made games for the system? Infinity Ward didn't. Kojima didn't. Irrational didn't. Valve didn't. DICE didn't. Rockstar didn't. Assassin's Creed team didn't. Epic didn't. Bethesda didn't. Squaresoft didn't throw any of their major teams at it except for the DQ team, which has no pull in the west. I mean, I'm pretty quickly running out of developers who one could have reasonably described as "top tier developers" last generation. Even Madden was outsourced to EA's second tier developers.

I mean, yeah, most companies threw a lot of C teams at the system. Which publishers are you think of when you talk about publishers trying "everything they could?"

The COD games made for the Wii were good games. So were Boom Blox, the Dead Space rail shooter, the Resident Evil games, zak & wiki, etc. But the majority of software sales went to Nintendo, rock band/guitar hero, dancing games and party games.

Mad World and the Dead Steels were big bets.

Plenty of money and energy went to developing Wii games. A lot of them were great. Many of them weren't. But only the very upper tier could make enough return to be better risk/reward bets than on other platforms.

But compare the potential return of Inifinity Ward developing for Wii versus them developing cod for Ps3 and 360? No way you spend those people hours on the Wii given the development timeline and audiences. The return just wasn't there.

But Red Octane and Harmonix? Hell yeah they develop for Wii. That was A level talent, because the potential return was there.

Maybe third parties never "got" the Wii outside of dance/music and a couple things like Carnival Games. Maybe the shovelware drowned out the good titles and suffocated the market.

But to say there was some intentional ignoring of that market? Can't see that with the release count and things like the Spielberg deal.

 

[bananafactory]

Welfare
Banned
(Today, 11:58 PM)

Spoiler

Kappa

You got me to look. lol

 

[EventHorizon]

I think it's a foregone conclusion that this generation will be smaller than the last, which everyone seems to shrug off for some reason but would be the first time ever for that to occur. Consoles have been growing their audience steadily for as long as most of us have been alive, but that trend has now reversed. All of this, of course, while development costs continue to rise.

But to your observation, this generation may also end up being smaller than the PS2 generation. That's not nearly as clear cut -- we may get more than 200M consoles this gen -- but it's possible. Xbox One is a much better second place than Xbox was, but Wii U is a much worse third place, and PS4 is unlikely to be as shining a first place, either.

First off, do you think that will be so world wide if you only count the PlayStation and Xbox consoles. The Wii and Wii U can be safely be excluded because they don't pull the same types of games. By that I mean that the Wii U's tanking won't have any effect on Activision's decision to make Call of Duty or Destiny. So yes you can say that the overall market will shrink, but it's effects won't be evenly distributed.

Second, we have seen how price sensitive these consoles can be. This generation is the first where every hardware maker did not subsidize their console. That is going to have an impact on sales. If the consoles had come out $100 cheaper or had $100 worth of extra hardware at the same price, sales would have been much higher. What this means is that we'll have a delayed uptake as the prices naturally drop.

Third, continuing with the price theme, this console generation has existed entirely under a weakened economy after one of the biggest recessions in history. As/if that corrects itself console sales will rise.

Fourth, as I pointed out before there is a HUGE discrepancy in the number of console selling games out right now from the PS2 era. This could be a systemic problem due to the higher cost of developing games, so this one might not correct itself. However it could also be fluke. We could have been held back by the trend to make cross gen games, and remasters. Now that that is at an end we could start seeing more games released worthy of buying a new console to play.

Finally, both the XB1 and the PS4 will get a sales boost when they release Project Morpheus and HoloLens respectively. Either or both have the potential to hit fad status and sell like the Wii U's motion control or Kinect.

There are just way too many variable that we know will change to project a few month's worth of data out to the lifetime of this console generation.

 

[illmatic22]

when i said the same thing in different words that PS4 didnt capitalize on its impressive launch i got banned. So be careful. Nothing against the PS4 can be said here.

Oh ffs.

 

[smurfx]

if sony underperfoms in feb then they really need to drop the price of the console. i get the feeling this year is going to be slow for the xb1/ps4.

 

[Welfare]

Welfare
Banned
(Today, 11:58 PM)

Spoiler

Kappa

<.<

>.>

if sony underperfoms in feb then they really need to drop the price of the console. i get the feeling this year is going to be slow for the xb1/ps4.

Wait for the summer months for that. People were actually able to buy PS4's last holiday compared to 2013.

 

[Vena]

No hard numbers, but Vita being 39% of 3DS is not a good look at all.

Little do you realize that the Vita sold 100k!

Spoiler

As in, they sold 100 Ks.

 

[Opiate]

The COD games made for the Wii were good games. So were Boom Blox, the Dead Space rail shooter, the Resident Evil games, zak & wiki, etc. But the majority of software sales went to Nintendo, rock band/guitar hero, dancing games and party games.

Okay, stop right here. I'm not saying there were zero good games on the system -- I'm asking what top tier talent was devoted to the Wii. You said publishers tried "everything they could." I suppose based on your askew answer to my question that you agree, publishers did not devote their top talent to the system?

But compare the potential return of Inifinity Ward developing for Wii versus them developing cod for Ps3 and 360? No way you spend those people hours on the Wii given the development timeline and audiences. The return just wasn't there.

How do we know this? I mean, Infinity Ward never made a game for Wii. Hardly anyone even sort of like Infinity Ward ever did. The closest example was Red Steel, which got very poor reviews but still managed to warrant an (also not particular well liked) sequel.

But Red Octane and Harmonix? Hell yeah they develop for Wii. That was A level talent, because the potential return was there.

Harmonix did not develop for Wii. Again, the game was shrugged off to the second string developer. Red Octane did make games for the Wii, and as it turns out, Guitar Hero actually sold best on Wii.

But to say there was some intentional ignoring of that market? Can't see that with the release count and things like the Spielberg deal.

Well, this is a very different statement. Were third parties "Ignoring the market" entirely? I'm not suggesting that. But "trying everything they could?" That seems like an enormous stretch. You seem to basically be conceding that virtually no one put any of their top talent on the system, which is pretty far away from "trying everything they can."

 

[Inuhanyou]

if sony underperfoms in feb then they really need to drop the price of the console. i get the feeling this year is going to be slow for the xb1/ps4.

I don't think they need to drop the price before ANY of their big hitters even come out. Come on guys, get your heads in the game. this is only the second month of the year and your already being melodramatic about the first month.

 

[RexNovis]

Generally, Jan provides between 5-8% of overall annual HW sales volume for the core consoles.

Which would mean

Ps4 between 3860k and 2412k
XB1 between 3060k and 1912k

That's definitely a substantial decline from 2014

 

[StrongBlackVine]

I don't foresee any price drops before E3. Sony has high profile exclusive games to push sales and Microsoft has already tried a few different pricing strategies.


I'm really curious to know worldwide numbers and whether other regions saw a significant decrease in demand as well. Pretty easy to conclude that it was a horrible month over for Xbox every where, but not so sure about PlayStation.

 

[theprodigy]

Which would mean

Ps4 between 3860k and 2412k
XB1 between 3060k and 1912k

That's definitely a substantial decline from 2014

that's hardly an absolute, using that for Xbox One in 2014 after January, you'd project 2820k maximum, and we all know it beat that easily