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[DrWong]

All this red, beautiful :]

 

[allan-bh]

I think you could say the same of Halo; that was an explosively growing franchise which stalled in sales and now has begun to decline.

It is ?

I know Halo 4 MP disappoint, but I don't know if sales are declining.

 

[Opiate]

So if we include GTA/Watch Dogs as 50% shooters, here are the biggest selling PS4/One games so far, to my knowledge, in no particular order:

1) Destiny
2) GTAV
3) Watch Dogs
4) Call of Duty: AW
5) Call of Duty: Ghosts
6) Assassin's Creed: Unity
7) The Last of Us
8) Far Cry 4
9) Fifa 14
10) Fifa 15
11) Titanfall
12) Madden 15
13) Battlefield 4
14) Halo: MCC
15) Assassin's Creed: Black Flag
16) Madden 14

Am I missing anything? I think that's probably a current list off the top of my head. We could probably quibble with a couple of games on the list, and add something like, I don't know, Ryse: Son of Rome or another Madden. This list is not well researched and I'm totally open to being schooled.

If that's roughly accurate, that's 9 shooters out of 15 games, with 4 more being annual sports franchises.

 

[GamerJM]

So if we include GTA/Watch Dogs as 50% shooters, here are the biggest selling PS4/One games so far, to my knowledge, in no particular order:

1) Destiny
2) GTAV
3) Watch Dogs
4) Call of Duty: AW
5) Call of Duty: Ghosts
6) Assassin's Creed: Unity
7) The Last of Us
8) Far Cry 4
9) Fifa 14
10) Fifa 15
11) Titanfall
12) Madden 15
13) Battlefield 4
14) Halo: MCC
15) Assassin's Creed: Black Flag
16) Madden 14

Am I missing anything? I think that's probably a current list off the top of my head. We could probably quibble with a couple of games on the list, and add something like, I don't know, Ryse: Son of Rome or another Madden. This list is not well researched and I'm totally open to being schooled.

If that's roughly accurate, that's 9 shooters out of 15 games, with 4 more being annual sports franchises.

I think InFamous and Killzone did well as far as other first-party titles go?

 

[anexanhume]

So if we include GTA/Watch Dogs as 50% shooters, here are the biggest selling PS4/One games so far, to my knowledge, in no particular order:

1) Destiny
2) GTAV
3) Watch Dogs
4) Call of Duty: AW
5) Call of Duty: Ghosts
6) Assassin's Creed: Unity
7) The Last of Us
8) Far Cry 4
9) Fifa 14
10) Fifa 15
11) Titanfall
12) Madden 15
13) Battlefield 4
14) Halo: MCC
15) Assassin's Creed: Black Flag
16) Madden 14

Am I missing anything? I think that's probably a current list off the top of my head. We could probably quibble with a couple of games on the list, and add something like, I don't know, Ryse: Son of Rome or another Madden. This list is not well researched and I'm totally open to being schooled.

If that's roughly accurate, that's 9 shooters out of 15 games, with 4 more being annual sports franchises.

GTAV has done 10M on next gen WW, so that would indicate pretty good numbers for Destiny likely, no?

 

[IndoAssassin]

7 posts in a row by 2 mods

ahhhhh

Spoiler

where's Y2Kev we at least need a different mod to break this up

C-C-C-C-C-C-C-COMBO Breakerrr!!!!!

 

[John Harker]

Hmm. Very interesting. Didn't really think of competition all that much. The increased toys-to-life competition and the increased FPS competition seem to go hand-in-hand with each other.

Ultimately it's going to be a mix of things.

Do you think Activision is effectively managing their COD brand? Mismanagement might be another culprit (since you said "when managed correctly," ARPU increases).

If you look at COD AW revenue, it's -21% LTD from Ghosts, a greater relative decrease than units.

I looked at CoD Elite as a great short term plan to boost revenue from loyal users.
Which they discontinued in 2014 for an App-based strategy. I would have to get data on how well that + their DLC strategy is monetizing before I can really make a call to see if that retail revenue decline is offset by their other tactics.

 

[Reset]

I think InFamous and Killzone did well as far as other first-party titles go?

I know Killzone ended up selling over 2+ Million copies.
The only thing I remember about Infamous SS was that it sold over a million copies in a week.

 

[pastrami]

GTAV has done 10M on next gen WW, so that would indicate pretty good numbers for Destiny likely, no?

That list isn't ordered, and it's just his guess of the best selling games.

 

[John Harker]

It's kind of what has made pure third person shooters harder to sell as well.

As Action-Adventure games and RPGs move more heavily into that arena, people expect "more" out of a third person shooter than just shooting people for eight hours - usually in a linear scripted path - and then having some competitive multiplayer.


Yes in the sense that the core combat mechanics are third person cover shooting.

You can technically go through the game non-violently or focus more on stealth however.

There's also driving and an open world. It works a lot like GTA in many respects.

Their competitive set was open world (or 'sand box') games in general. Not specifically FPS titles.
So, GTA, Red Dead, Saint's Row... those experiences.

 

[The Artisan]

I know Killzone ended up selling over 2+ Million copies.
The only thing I remember about Infamous SS was that it sold over a million copies in a week.

it's been almost a year since ISS has been out, so I'm sure at the very least it sold at least a million more by now.

 

[Nirolak]

GTAV has done 10M on next gen WW, so that would indicate pretty good numbers for Destiny likely, no?

They're not meant to be an ordered list. He probably should have used black bullets.

 

[TomShoe]

I know Killzone ended up selling over 2+ Million copies.
The only thing I remember about Infamous SS was that it sold over a million copies in a week.

InFamous is likely up there nearing the high 1M mark, if not surpassed 2M by now. It's been $20 for awhile now.

 

[Nirolak]

Their competitive set was open world games in general. Not specifically FPS titles.
So, GTA, Red Dead, Saint's Row... those experiences.

Oh yes, I mean, I get what Watch Dogs was trying to compete with, but just toward Opiate's question of "Is this mechanically similar to a third person shooter?" which for the combat part is true.

I think he's trying to note that the AAA retail industry is largely "shooters", "expanded shooters" (things like open world games tend to be or FPS/TPS RPGs), and "sports/racing games".

If we add in some allowances for melee combat (be it a direct hack and slash which are becoming rarer in the same way pure TPS games are or RPGs/open world games that are melee focused like Assassin's Creed or Skyrim or Dragon Age) I think that would cover almost everything still being made in major volume on consoles.

 

[simplayer]

If we were to look across the isle to the other big competitor (Disney Infinity 2.0), that too is suffering similar relative losses to Skylanders.

Quite the distance to travel.

 

[Opiate]

Yes, sorry. It's just a "here are, off the top of my head, the best selling games on PS4/One" list.

I don't have sales figures for all of these. They're just what I've gleaned from reading Financial Reports and looking at NPD.

 

[QaaQer]

So if we include GTA/Watch Dogs as 50% shooters, here are the biggest selling PS4/One games so far, to my knowledge, in no particular order:

1) Destiny
2) GTAV
3) Watch Dogs
4) Call of Duty: AW
5) Call of Duty: Ghosts
6) Assassin's Creed: Unity
7) The Last of Us
8) Far Cry 4
9) Fifa 14
10) Fifa 15
11) Titanfall
12) Madden 15
13) Battlefield 4
14) Halo: MCC
15) Assassin's Creed: Black Flag
16) Madden 14

Am I missing anything? I think that's probably a current list off the top of my head. We could probably quibble with a couple of games on the list, and add something like, I don't know, Ryse: Son of Rome or another Madden. This list is not well researched and I'm totally open to being schooled.

If that's roughly accurate, that's 9 shooters out of 15 games, with 4 more being annual sports franchises.

They've pretty much given up on people who don't want to shoot/stab virtual people or play fake sports.

OT...I've found a good way to find really interesting games is to look for ones that don't involve killing things. Of course, it's much easier to do in the land of board games where games with killing are the niche products.

 

[John Harker]

Oh yes, I mean, I get what Watch Dogs was trying to compete with, but just toward Opiate's question of "Is this mechanically similar to a third person shooter?" which for the combat part is true.

I think he's trying to note that the AAA industry is largely "shooters", "expanded shooters" (things like open world games tend to be or FPS/TPS RPGs), and "sports/racing games".

It's pretty funny how games get classified these days.

I think there is a push to kind of re-classify things based around experiences and not mechanics. Like on my side, I don't hear people referring to their products as 'third person shooters' as much any more. You generally hear things like:

• Open World game
• Competitive multiplayer game
• RPG (I know how broad this is...)
• Party game (rarer these days.... but could include things like mario kart. basically, what used to be called "couch co-op" experiences)
• "Charm" (quirky, colorful experiences - think like a Captain Toad)

etc

I'm not sure when this really started happening, but If I stop to pay attention to it it sounds like a subtle but real shift.

maybe easier terms to classify for broader audiences, but I think it's the desire to develop targeted content around BEHAVIOR since Big Data is such a real thing now vs in the past, when products were pretty much designed around mechanical ideas from studious or 'what that game did that was popular, let's also make that kind of game with our skin'

 

[GamerJM]

They've pretty much given up on people who don't want to shoot/stab virtual people or play fake sports.

OT...I've found a good way to find really interesting games is to look for ones that don't involve killing things. Of course, it's much easier to do in the land of board games where games with killing are the niche products.

There's still Nintendo platforms for people like us

Spoiler

for now

 

[QaaQer]

It's pretty funny how games get classified as these days.

I think there is a push to kind of re-classify things based around experiences and not mechanics. Like on my side, I don't hear people referring to their products as 'third person shooters' as much any more. You generally hear things like:

• Open World game
• Competitive multiplayer game
• RPG (I know how broad this is...)
• Party game (rarer these days.... but could include things like mario kart. basically, what used to be called "couch co-op" experiences)
• "Charm" (quirky, colorful experiences - think like a Captain Toad)

etc

I'm not sure when this really started happening, but If I stop to pay attention to it it sounds like a subtle but real shift.

maybe easier terms to classify for broader audiences, but I think it's the desire to develop targeted content around BEHAVIOR since Big Data is such a real thing now vs in the past, when products were pretty much designed around mechanical ideas from studious or 'what that game did that was popular, let's also make that kind of game with our skin'

Can I ask what size studio(s) you deal with?

 

[ZhugeEX]

So if we include GTA/Watch Dogs as 50% shooters, here are the biggest selling PS4/One games so far, to my knowledge, in no particular order:

1) Destiny
2) GTAV
3) Watch Dogs
4) Call of Duty: AW
5) Call of Duty: Ghosts
6) Assassin's Creed: Unity
7) The Last of Us
8) Far Cry 4
9) Fifa 14
10) Fifa 15
11) Titanfall
12) Madden 15
13) Battlefield 4
14) Halo: MCC
15) Assassin's Creed: Black Flag
16) Madden 14

Am I missing anything?

If they released "Dream Club: Host Girls on Stage" in the USA it'd probably do better than Destiny...

Spoiler

But yeh, that sounds about right for the US market

 

[QaaQer]

There's still Nintendo platforms for people like us

Spoiler

for now

definitely.

I compare Lego City Undercover and GTAV and it makes me a little sad that GTAV outsold it 250:1.

 

[Vinc]

I have a legitimate question I'd be interested in hearing people's opinion on: Do you think the console games market is actually growing, or are the sales just front-loaded due to various factors such as the previous gen's length and the new console marketing and price situations being particularly good early on in the gen?

 

[Opiate]

It's pretty funny how games get classified these days.

I think there is a push to kind of re-classify things based around experiences and not mechanics. Like on my side, I don't hear people referring to their products as 'third person shooters' as much any more. You generally hear things like:

• Open World game
• Competitive multiplayer game
• RPG (I know how broad this is...)
• Party game (rarer these days.... but could include things like mario kart. basically, what used to be called "couch co-op" experiences)
• "Charm" (quirky, colorful experiences - think like a Captain Toad)

etc

I'm not sure when this really started happening, but If I stop to pay attention to it it sounds like a subtle but real shift.

maybe easier terms to classify for broader audiences, but I think it's the desire to develop targeted content around BEHAVIOR since Big Data is such a real thing now vs in the past, when products were pretty much designed around mechanical ideas from studious or 'what that game did that was popular, let's also make that kind of game with our skin'

Honestly, since I'm being cynical, I will suggest a significant reason they want to make this shift is that they don't want to have to say they're making another shooter.

"We're making an open world game and a multiplayer game and an RPG" sounds way better than "we have an open world shooter and a multiplayer shooter and a shooter with prestige/loot mechanics."

 

[anexanhume]

They're not meant to be an ordered list. He probably should have used black bullets.

 

[TomShoe]

I have a legitimate question I'd be interested in hearing people's opinion on: Do you think the console games market is actually growing, or are the sales just front-loaded due to various factors such as the previous gen's length and the new console marketing and price situations being particularly good early on in the gen?

If anything, it's shrinking due to the loss of the casuals market to the mobile sector. Xbox & Wii U aren't going to be nearly as strong going forward because of the alienation of their consumers as well. PS4 is going to be far and away #1, but I doubt it can compensate for the other two. It's already falling behind the Wii & PS2 in YOY sales in that aspect.

 

[Nirolak]

It's pretty funny how games get classified these days.

I think there is a push to kind of re-classify things based around experiences and not mechanics. Like on my side, I don't hear people referring to their products as 'third person shooters' as much any more. You generally hear things like:

• Open World game
• Competitive multiplayer game
• RPG (I know how broad this is...)
• Party game (rarer these days.... but could include things like mario kart. basically, what used to be called "couch co-op" experiences)
• "Charm" (quirky, colorful experiences - think like a Captain Toad)

etc

I'm not sure when this really started happening, but If I stop to pay attention to it it sounds like a subtle but real shift.

maybe easier terms to classify for broader audiences, but I think it's the desire to develop targeted content around BEHAVIOR since Big Data is such a real thing now vs in the past, when products were pretty much designed around mechanical ideas from studious or 'what that game did that was popular, let's also make that kind of game with our skin'

There is certainly an extent to which mechanical based boundaries have broken down between many genres as budgets and technology allow for you to blend in 80 gazillion things and have it work satisfactorily.

It's kind of like the old Metroid Prime debate right? Some people view it as an FPS while others find that category to not be meaningful. However, whether the person in question thinks "Deus Ex/Thief" when FPS is mentioned or "CoD/Battlefield" can vary the viewpoint a lot.

FPS in and of itself only tells you a smaller part of how the game works.

 

[Plinko]

Anyone a Skylanders fan or an ATVI shareholder?

Because you're not going to like this.


Skylanders is down -6% YOY in January and -19% YOY LTD.


Revenue is much worse, with a massive -20% YOY decline in January.



This is the FOURTH consecutive month that Skylanders has been down YOY (aka. since launch).

Sell-through of Skylanders is weak. Like, a good deal below 100K weak.

I know Activision makes up for it in toy sales...but still...looking at the numbers isn't giving me much hope for ATVI's growth potential with the franchise.

I wonder at what point they're just going to cut it off. We all know they have a propensity to axe declining franchises (Tony Hawk, Guitar Hero, etc.)

Because Trap Team went to the well one too many times.

 

[Intrigue]

Hmm. Very interesting. Didn't really think of competition all that much. The increased toys-to-life competition and the increased FPS competition seem to go hand-in-hand with each other.

Ultimately it's going to be a mix of things.

Do you think Activision is effectively managing their COD brand? Mismanagement might be another culprit (since you said "when managed correctly," ARPU increases).

If you look at COD AW revenue, it's -21% LTD from Ghosts, a greater relative decrease than units.

Just to make it clear, Mismanagement is just a type of management style.

I see it daily in other places.

 

[ZhugeEX]

I have a legitimate question I'd be interested in hearing people's opinion on: Do you think the console games market is actually growing, or are the sales just front-loaded due to various factors such as the previous gen's length and the new console marketing and price situations being particularly good early on in the gen?

Front loaded. I've been saying for a while now that in terms of unit sales (and revenue) there is no way that cumulative sales of PS4/Xbox One/ Wii U will exceed 280 million LTD which the Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360 have reached after ~9 years.

Whilst the PS4 and Xbox One are off to excellent starts, I don't expect it to continue after 2016*. Even now we've seen around ~37m units sold in this gen vs ~41m for last gen at the same time point and I only expect that gap to get bigger. Whilst the PS4 is a beast and has sold faster than Wii, the demand isn't there for it to continue selling as fast as the Wii. No doubt the PS4 will eventually catch up (due to Wii's decline in 2010 onwards) but I honestly don't see this gen shipping even as much as PS3/360 combined (~180m) let alone PS3/360/Wii combined (~280m).

Number of reasons for this. Mobile gaming being one. The likely shorter console gen may also be a big factor. Wii U's low sales is another factor as well. Last gen we saw all 3 consoles exceed 85m shipments with the Wii at 100m. Don't see the Xbox One or Wii U getting anywhere near that and don't see the PS4 carrying the weight/

* I don't expect sales of Wii U and Xbox One to increase YOY after 2016 at all. PS4 may, but again I'm expecting the best selling years for PS4 and Xbox One and Wii U to have been before CY2017. (If not 2016).

In regards to software, tie ratio's should still be quite high and bigger games should continue to see good sales.

 

[BlackProdigy]

Xbox Leading in software is a telling tale.....

 

[ZhugeEX]

Xbox Leading in software is a telling tale.....

It's not though....

 

[Aquamarine]

Xbox Leading in software is a telling tale.....

If you look over the lifetime of the two consoles (PS4 vs. XB1), PS4 has sold more software.

But the XB1 installbase is behind PS4.


So please keep in mind that XB1 is only leading *relative to installbase*, not in absolute terms.

 

[anexanhume]

It's not though....

MS overdelivers on PR value too.

 

[Rymuth]

Xbox Leading in software is a telling tale.....

Yes, a tall tale.

 

[cakely]

Xbox Leading in software is a telling tale.....

Microsoft's sketchy PR statements pay off consistently.

 

[vinnygambini]

Xbox Leading in software is a telling tale.....

tale as old as time, true as it cannot be.

 

[Elandyll]

Yes, a tall tale.

PR spin is doing its work

It's funny to see so many people flying right over the "per console" mention...

 

[ZhugeEX]

MS overdelivers on PR value too.

They also over deliver on Xbox One's to retailers....

 

[JayhawkerStL]

If you look over the lifetime of the two consoles (PS4 vs. XB1), PS4 has sold more software.

But the XB1 installbase is behind PS4.


So please keep in mind that XB1 is only leading *relative to installbase*, not in absolute terms.

No one thinks that XB1 leads in lifetime software over the PS4. But there is no denying that the fact that the XB1 beat the PS4 in six of the nine multiplatform titles in the top ten this month. It sure does lead one to believe that for this one month, XB1 did beat Sony in software despite being so far behind in console sales.

 

[ZhugeEX]

It sure does lead one to believe that for this one month, XB1 did beat Sony in software

Nope.

 

[Opiate]

I love when systems are as comparatively close in sales as PS4/Xbone are in the US.It allows people to sort through the data and find the stuff that makes their system of choice look good.

Xbox One, higher attach rate! PS4, higher overall software sales! Xbox One, much higher sales during the crucial holiday period! PS4, leading again in January!

The real conclusion you should be drawing is that these products are, by and large, commodified, and that the consumer populace sees them as mostly interchangeable. We're having to nitpick small details to find any meaningful differences. The same types of games sell on both systems to the same types of consumers and demographics.

 

[Vinc]

Front loaded. I've been saying for a while now that in terms of unit sales (and revenue) there is no way that cumulative sales of PS4/Xbox One/ Wii U will exceed 280 million LTD which the Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360 have reached after ~9 years.

Whilst the PS4 and Xbox One are off to excellent starts, I don't expect it to continue after 2016*. Even now we've seen around ~37m units sold in this gen vs ~41m for last gen at the same time point and I only expect that gap to get bigger. Whilst the PS4 is a beast and has sold faster than Wii, the demand isn't there for it to continue selling as fast as the Wii. No doubt the PS4 will eventually catch up (due to Wii's decline in 2010 onwards) but I honestly don't see this gen shipping even as much as PS3/360 combined (~180m) let alone PS3/360/Wii combined (~280m).

Number of reasons for this. Mobile gaming being one. The likely shorter console gen may also be a big factor. Wii U's low sales is another factor as well. Last gen we saw all 3 consoles exceed 85m shipments with the Wii at 100m. Don't see the Xbox One or Wii U getting anywhere near that and don't see the PS4 carrying the weight/

* I don't expect sales of Wii U and Xbox One to increase YOY after 2016 at all. PS4 may, but again I'm expecting the best selling years for PS4 and Xbox One and Wii U to have been before CY2017. (If not 2016).

In regards to software, tie ratio's should still be quite high and bigger games should continue to see good sales.

It's hard to argue against this, but I'm wondering how much the software side of things is going to change, I personally think it's the big question mark. Casual gamers were never really big on buying a lot of games, and I wonder how much their absence or lower number is going to affect traditional, big AAA games.

If anything, it's shrinking due to the loss of the casuals market to the mobile sector. Xbox & Wii U aren't going to be nearly as strong going forward because of the alienation of their consumers as well. PS4 is going to be far and away #1, but I doubt it can compensate for the other two. It's already falling behind the Wii & PS2 in YOY sales in that aspect.

I agree that the casual gamers market is probably not going to be as big on dedicated consoles going forward... but that market was never really a great fit for consoles, they never bought that many games either! I'm wondering if the actual hardcore gamers market is growing or shrinking, it's hard to say at the moment...

 

[Rymuth]

PR spin is doing its work

It's funny to see so many people flying right over the "per console" mention...

"In a broader set of community, people don't pay attention to a lot of the details," said Mehdi. "We've seen it in the research, we've seen it in a lot of the data points."

They have the research to back it up.

 

[vcc]

Front loaded. I've been saying for a while now that in terms of unit sales (and revenue) there is no way that cumulative sales of PS4/Xbox One/ Wii U will exceed 280 million LTD which the Wii, PS3 and Xbox 360 have reached after ~9 years.

Whilst the PS4 and Xbox One are off to excellent starts, I don't expect it to continue after 2016*. Even now we've seen around ~37m units sold in this gen vs ~41m for last gen at the same time point and I only expect that gap to get bigger. Whilst the PS4 is a beast and has sold faster than Wii, the demand isn't there for it to continue selling as fast as the Wii. No doubt the PS4 will eventually catch up (due to Wii's decline in 2010 onwards) but I honestly don't see this gen shipping even as much as PS3/360 combined (~180m) let alone PS3/360/Wii combined (~280m).

Number of reasons for this. Mobile gaming being one. The likely shorter console gen may also be a big factor. Wii U's low sales is another factor as well. Last gen we saw all 3 consoles exceed 85m shipments with the Wii at 100m. Don't see the Xbox One or Wii U getting anywhere near that and don't see the PS4 carrying the weight/

* I don't expect sales of Wii U and Xbox One to increase YOY after 2016 at all. PS4 may, but again I'm expecting the best selling years for PS4 and Xbox One and Wii U to have been before CY2017. (If not 2016).

In regards to software, tie ratio's should still be quite high and bigger games should continue to see good sales.

The other interpretation was the majority of the wii sales were a market abortion and won't be repeated. PS4 is doing well compared to any other single console and the XB1 is doing fine as well. I agree it seems more that the causal market went to tablets.

 

[Bgamer90]

I love when systems are as comparatively close in sales as PS4/Xbone are in the US.It allows people to sort through the data and find the stuff that makes their system of choice look good.

Xbox One, higher attach rate! PS4, higher overall software sales! Xbox One, much higher sales during the crucial holiday period! PS4, leading again in January!

The real conclusion you should be drawing is that these products are, by and large, commodified, and that the consumer populace sees them as mostly interchangeable. We're having to nitpick small details to find any meaningful differences. The same types of games sell on both systems to the same types of consumers and demographics.

Good post. 100% agree.

I can't think of a time in which the two top consoles have been so close to each other in overall sales (NPD) during the third year of the gen. Definitely hasn't happened in my lifetime.

 

[StealthGoblin]

I love when systems are as comparatively close in sales as PS4/Xbone are in the US.It allows people to sort through the data and find the stuff that makes their system of choice look good.

Xbox One, higher attach rate! PS4, higher overall software sales! Xbox One, much higher sales during the crucial holiday period! PS4, leading again in January!

The real conclusion you should be drawing is that these products are, by and large, commodified, and that the consumer populace sees them as mostly interchangeable. We're having to nitpick small details to find any meaningful differences. The same types of games sell on both systems to the same types of consumers and demographics.

Looking at the arguments from a European perspective is interesting as over here we have a broader range of genres that do very well here.

The game is already over here so it is intriguing to see people arguing like there is a race.

 

[ZhugeEX]

It's hard to argue against this, but I'm wondering how much the software side of things is going to change, I personally think it's the big question mark. Casual gamers were never really big on buying a lot of games, and I wonder how much their absence or lower number is going to affect traditional, big AAA games.

With big AAA games, shouldn't be too much a difference.
With smaller games there may be a difference. We'll need to wait and see though.

I agree that the casual gamers market is probably not going to be as big on dedicated consoles going forward... but that market was never really a great fit for consoles, they never bought that many games either! I'm wondering if the actual hardcore gamers market is growing or shrinking, it's hard to say at the moment...

On a worldwide basis it's certainly declining in favour of Mobile, or even PC.

When you look regionally, Japan for example has gone from ~22m PS2 consoles with 1m sold through in the first month to ~10m PS3 consoles and now just over 1m PS4 consoles after 1 year on the market. Now Japan is just one market that has seen a huge decline in console gaming. Other developing markets however are seeing huge increases in console sales such as Middle East and Asia and are going some way towards making up the decline in other regions.

Will this plug the overall console market decline? Not really.
Is the console market dead? Not at all, it's doing well at the moment.

 

[Aquamarine]

I love when systems are as comparatively close in sales as PS4/Xbone are in the US.It allows people to sort through the data and find the stuff that makes their system of choice look good.

Xbox One, higher attach rate! PS4, higher overall software sales! Xbox One, much higher sales during the crucial holiday period! PS4, leading again in January!

The real conclusion you should be drawing is that these products are, by and large, commodified, and that the consumer populace sees them as mostly interchangeable. We're having to nitpick small details to find any meaningful differences. The same types of games sell on both systems to the same types of consumers and demographics.

I wonder if they will be able to keep up this symbiosis throughout the remaining 8th-gen lifespan in the USA market, or if one platform will begin to cannibalize the other.

 

[Stilton Disco]

There's still Nintendo platforms for people like us

Spoiler

for now

Your saying this has actually suddenly made me realise just how few non violent games are on the WiiU.

Sure, it's often covered up by cutesy non graphic art styles, but other than Captain Toad and Minigame collections I'm drawing a blank on big name titles that don't involve hurting and/or killing others. I mean when you get down to it, even MK8 is as much about attacking the other racers as it is about being a competitive sport.

They really need more games along the lines of Harvest Moon, Animal Crossing, Prof Layton, Pilot Wings, Pokemon Snap and the like, that they've had on previous consoles.