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[OléGunner]

You really think PS4 is going to sell less than PS3? Come on. PS4 is ridiculously ahead of PS3 launches aligned. In US alone it's going to sell far more than PS3 did. Also WiiU and Vita both have probably passed already that 10 million mark. Somewhere around 15 million is more likely for both.

Well it's a toss up whether PS4 sales will overall eclipse PS3 sales.

It depends on how soon Sony are willing to take a hit on profits by reducing the price, seeing as I could see them keeping it where it's at for a little while longer. Bundle deals will be the order of the day I think.

Also I feel like the majority of sales so far have come from the hardcore/casually interested in video game buyers. The super casual folks need to dive in as well for sales north of 90m+.

 

[NeloAnjelo]

It's a good thing the US isn't the world for Sony like it is for Microsoft.

/\
THIS!

 

[Marlenus]

Well it's a toss up whether PS4 sales will overall eclipse PS3 sales.

It depends on how soon Sony are willing to take a hit on profits by reducing the price, seeing as I could see them keeping it where it's at for a little while longer. Bundle deals will be the order of the day I think.

Also I feel like the majority of sales so far have come from the hardcore/casually interested in video game buyers. The super casual folks need to dive in as well for sales north of 90m+.

When PS5 is out PS4 will be a heck of a lot cheaper than the PS3 is currently so it will sell well in the poorer markets. It is going to follow the same path to success as the PS2 although I do not think it will get the same numbers as the PS2 but it will definately surpass the PS3 and probably the PS1 too.

 

[Omotesando]

I think it's going to be a shorter gen

PS4 drop dead like Wii he? Why you think that?

 

[OléGunner]

When PS5 is out PS4 will be a heck of a lot cheaper than the PS3 is currently so it will sell well in the poorer markets. It is going to follow the same path to success as the PS2 although I do not think it will get the same numbers as the PS2 but it will definitely surpass the PS3 and probably the PS1 too.

Yeah the PS4 will sell great in about 3-4 years in emerging markets. I'm still doubtful whether that'll be enough for it to topple overall PS3 sales (which might still see an uptick itself with a price cut soon).

Maybe rising incomes across Asia, the middle east and Africa by that time might cause these territories to get into the PS5 sooner and slightly nullify PS4 uptake later on but who knows ¯\_(&#12484_/¯

 

[Omotesando]

I get that however I am just stating ndp but also the world is going to catch halo fever its, one of those games that just sell, this holiday im not so sure sony has one of those.

Halo in its prime isn't all that outside of the US.

 

[Adachi]

Not a great quarter for PS, to be honest, even if we consider the PS4s japanese launch was in the same quarter last year then that still doesn't make this YoY drop anything more than, kind of disappointing. I'm assuming The Order and the Vita can be blamed for the operating loss this quarter.

PS4 sales are expected to increase (interesting that no PS3 or handheld forecast is given) but revenue and operating profit are expected to be flat/slightly down, which the drop in PS3 sales and unfavourable exchange rates are blamed for. Now to be optimistic one could say that Sony adjusted last years PS forecast up a couple times and still beat it, so these results could end up a lot better, but for that to happen I'd say that a price cut and at least one software heavy hitter is needed. OI margin forecasts are still low, probably due to the Vita and just certain 1st party/Sony published titles bombing which unfortunately is par for the course for Sony, I'm sure everyone already has quite a few Sony titles that they expect to flop this year, I know I do.

Overall I think better results for the division are possible it's just a matter of Sony taking the opportunities.

Oh and that article that counted stronger than expected PS4 sales as a reason for the OI forecast revision seems to have been completely bullshitting.

 

[OléGunner]

Not a great quarter for PS, to be honest, even if we consider the PS4s japanese launch was in the same quarter last year then that still doesn't make this YoY drop anything more than, kind of disappointing. I'm assuming The Order and the Vita can be blamed for the operating loss this quarter.

Sure the Vita had a write off of about 11bn yen (read in this in the NPD thread a short while ago) but how you attribute The Order to any loss for Playstation division or Sony as a whole is beyond me when you don't even know it's development budget or world wide sale figures to determine how much money it has made.

Edit: Sorry, read the write off figure in this thread

 

[John Bender]

Gamesindustry.biz: Revenues up 33% YoY for PlayStation. 14.8 million PS4s sold in FY 2014 makes segment corp's biggest earner.

Not a great quarter for PS, to be honest

lol... okay.

 

[MikeE21286]

Almost double xb1+x360's 1.6m

 

[gtj1092]

Not a great quarter for PS, to be honest, even if we consider the PS4s japanese launch was in the same quarter last year then that still doesn't make this YoY drop anything more than, kind of disappointing. I'm assuming The Order and the Vita can be blamed for the operating loss this quarter.

PS4 sales are expected to increase (interesting that no PS3 or handheld forecast is given) but revenue and operating profit are expected to be flat/slightly down, which the drop in PS3 sales and unfavourable exchange rates are blamed for. Now to be optimistic one could say that Sony adjusted last years PS forecast up a couple times and still beat it, so these results could end up a lot better, but for that to happen I'd say that a price cut and at least one software heavy hitter is needed. OI margin forecasts are still low, probably due to the Vita and just certain 1st party/Sony published titles bombing which unfortunately is par for the course for Sony, I'm sure everyone already has quite a few Sony titles that they expect to flop this year, I know I do.

Overall I think better results for the division are possible it's just a matter of Sony taking the opportunities.

Oh and that article that counted stronger than expected PS4 sales as a reason for the OI forecast revision seems to have been completely bullshitting.

I think sony was only forcasting for a total of 2.4 million Ps3/4 hardware sales for this quarter and they ended up selling that in Ps4s alone.

 

[-MB-]

PS4 drop dead like Wii he? Why you think that?

There have been multiple publishers and devs who stated they think this generation will be allot shorter than last gen.

 

[Nightengale]

As usual, Dualshockers is the only site that goes into more details in regards to stuff that's brought up outside of the released reports, such as the Japanese conference calls.

The site's banned here (but not for inaccurate reporting, so the news-bits there are accurate), but you all can go have a look at some of the articles there for some broader context of the stuff here. Here's a quote from one of the articles.

During Sony’s financial conference call for Japanese investors and analysts, Chief Financial Officer Kenichiro Yoshida explained that the slightly lower operating income forecast for the Game & Network Services segment for fiscal year 2015 compared to fiscal year 2014 is partly due to the intention to “aggressively invest” in the business.

 

[Adachi]

Sure the Vita had a write off of about 11bn yen (read in this in the NPD thread a short while ago) but how you attribute The Order to any loss for Playstation division or Sony as a whole is beyond me when you don't even know it's development budget or world wide sale figures to determine how much money it has made.

Edit: Sorry, read the write off figure in this thread

It's an assumption that's probably not too far from the truth, Sony wanted the Order to be something big, I believe that that's hard to deny and the Order did not exactly make a huge impact that's hard to deny either. In sales we know that it didn't exactly make a splash in the US market and while we can all tell ourselves that it may have done totally well outside of the US, I think it's more realistic to assume that it hasn't done that either.

 

[KillerMan91]

I think it's going to be a shorter gen

In developed world sure. In developing world no. PS4 will not cost $249 after 8 years in the market like PS3. PS3 was overengineered and it's suffering from it now. I could see PS4 to drop as low as $129 during last phase of its life. This huge price advantage compared to PS3 also gives it stronger sales in the west even though it might have shorter life than PS3. Japan is the only region where PS4 will sell less than PS3.

It is also a lot easier to make cheaper than the PS3 so by the time the PS5 is released they could have a $149 price PS4 with a drop down to $99 shortly after. It will do like the PS2 did and sell in emerging markets long after the next gen console is released. If the PS5 has proper backwards compatibility (which if it remains on X86 then it will be trivially easy to ensure) then PS4 sales will probably decline faster than PS2 sales did in the 1st world markets but I still think 120m + is an achieveable number when it is all said and done.

Exactly.

Well it's a toss up whether PS4 sales will overall eclipse PS3 sales.

It depends on how soon Sony are willing to take a hit on profits by reducing the price, seeing as I could see them keeping it where it's at for a little while longer. Bundle deals will be the order of the day I think.

Also I feel like the majority of sales so far have come from the hardcore/casually interested in video game buyers. The super casual folks need to dive in as well for sales north of 90m+.

Cutting the price doesn't always mean hit to the profits. With price cut you increase the volume of consoless sold, volume of sw sold and get more PS+ subscriptions. PS4 is not PS3. With PS3 Sony had to cut the price to gain market share and longer term profits (they sold PS3 with loss for years and years). With PS4 price cut could increase profits already during one quarter (PS4 is already sold with profit).

 

[Adachi]

As usual, Dualshockers is the only site that goes into more details in regards to stuff that's brought up outside of the released reports, such as the Japanese conference calls.

The site's banned here (but not for inaccurate reporting, so the news-bits there are accurate), but you all can go have a look at some of the articles there for some broader context of the stuff here. Here's a quote from one of the articles.

Well that's definitely good to hear.

 

[Omotesando]

There have been multiple publishers and devs who stated they think this generation will be allot shorter than last gen.

Devs say all sorts of things.

But anyway it's Irrelevant to my point. My point is a console won't suddenly drop off like a brick when the new generation starts, especially not the dominant one (unless you are the Wii).

 

[Adachi]

Gamesindustry.biz: Revenues up 33% YoY for PlayStation. 14.8 million PS4s sold in FY 2014 makes segment corp's biggest earner.


lol... okay.

quarter =/= fiscal year

 

[Faustek]

Loss in gaming

During Sony’s financial conference call for Japanese investors and analysts, Chief Financial Officer Kenichiro Yoshida explained that the slightly lower operating income forecast for the Game & Network Services segment for fiscal year 2015 compared to fiscal year 2014 is partly due to the intention to “aggressively invest” in the business.

Also Yoshida-san about(Kenichiro)pricing

According to Yoshida-san, PS3 sales have suffered from a substantial drop and this trend is clearly different from the generation before it. After launcing PS2, PS1 continued to sell for a considerable amount of time, and the final price was $49.

After launching PS3, PS2 also survived for a considerable amount of time and the final price was $99.

In the case of PS3, the cost of its chips is very high, while with PS4 it’s “very difficult to divide the market in terms of price range” (meaning that it’s problematic to assign different prices to different markets), which in turn causes a considerable impact of fluctuations in the exchange rates between different currencies.

Yoshida-san continued by explaining that with other segments of the business a price-related action to compensate could be possible. For the gaming segment, action on volume and cost is possible, but actions on pricing are something the company “should be very cautions about."

Source:Banned site that fell for the "Fake E3 list".

Off Topic:
Btw is it ok to post info from a banned site as long as you don't link it? Don't think I've seen anything about it in the TOS.

 

[ekim]

Link

The 2.4m for PS4 is sales or bln Yen revenue? From the caption on the chart it's revenue, no?

 

[Nightengale]

Off Topic:
Btw is it ok to post info from a banned site as long as you don't link it? Don't think I've seen anything about it in the TOS.

I do it every time, because DS is the only site that has these extra info anyway..

What I do is post a small snippet, then tell rest of GAF to go read it on their site. :/

The 2.4m for PS4 is sales or bln Yen revenue? From the caption on the chart it's revenue, no?

It's unit sales. It's quantity of consoles sold.

 

[Faustek]

I do it every time, because DS is the only site that has these extra info anyway..

What I do is post a small snippet, then tell rest of GAF to go read it on their site. :/

Thanks, will remember that.

 

[Road]

That's some barebones OP. It should at least include the game business operating results, if not Sony overall. =P

LTD at the same point:

Wii: 24.45m
PS4: 22.30m

Worldwide shipments january/february/march of year:

Wii 2008: 4.32m
PS2 2002: 3.69m

PS4 2015: 2.40m
PS3 2008: 2.20m

PS1 1996: 0.90m

 

[John Bender]

quarter =/= fiscal year

The link has nothing to do with your post.
It's just the "lol, okay" because, in my opinion, you are completely wrong.
Nothing disappointing here.

 

[ekim]

It's unit sales. It's quantity of consoles sold.

But it says: mln units, for sales (which the only ones marked in the chart for sales are software and network); bln yen (which should be the other numbers)

edit: well the headline says the opposite. lol - I'm confused.

 

[Celine]

You could just put 2nd-biggest, you know.

It's a distant second place

Gran Turismo: 70M
Ratchet & Clank: 26M
God of War: 21M
SingStar: 20M
Uncharted: 17M
Everybody's Golf: 7,5M
Buzz !: 6M

 

[Americanmushroom]

That's some barebones OP. It should at least include the game business operating results, if not Sony overall. =P

Worldwide shipments january/february/march of year:

Wii 2008: 4.32m
PS2 2002: 3.69m

PS4 2015: 2.40m
PS3 2008: 2.20m

PS1 1996: 0.90m

Why is there the Wii and no other consoles?

 

[-MB-]

Devs say all sorts of things.

But anyway it's Irrelevant to my point. My point is a console won't suddenly drop off like a brick when the new generation starts, especially not the dominant one (unless you are the Wii).

The only reason last gen went on so long is because of the massive losses the platform holders had to incur on hardware, and 3rd parties on losing money transitioning to HD development for years. None of those 2 are an issue atm. So it's pretty obvious this gen ain't going to last 8 years before next gen systems release.

 

[Plinko]

Why is there the Wii and no other consoles?

I would assume because it was selling at a record pace and the chart gives a baseline comparison to those sales.

 

[Nightengale]

But it says: mln units, for sales (which the only ones marked in the chart for sales are software and network); bln yen (which should be the other numbers)

Refer to the headline.

Unit sales for key electronics is the metric for everything there except the ones with (sales), where the caption said (those tagged under sales are instead measured in revenue/billion yen) instead of million units.

 

[MrCookiepants]

I get that however I am just stating ndp but also the world is going to catch halo fever its, one of those games that just sell, this holiday im not so sure sony has one of those.

lol, Halo fever? It isn't 2007.

 

[Sid]

In developed world sure. In developing world no. PS4 will not cost $249 after 8 years in the market like PS3. PS3 was overengineered and it's suffering from it now. I could see PS4 to drop as low as $129 during last phase of its life. This huge price advantage compared to PS3 also gives it stronger sales in the west even though it might have shorter life than PS3. Japan is the only region where PS4 will sell less than PS3.

Even if it hits $150,in the developing world it'll still be something like $250-300

 

[Man]

Wii cost $249 at launch. PS4 currently costs $399. It's doing crazy well.

 

[Raist]

But it says: mln units, for sales (which the only ones marked in the chart for sales are software and network); bln yen (which should be the other numbers)

edit: well the headline says the opposite. lol - I'm confused.

If it's revenue, that's $24M in PS4 sales. Way less than 100,000 consoles sold. Wouldn't make any sense.

 

[Adachi]

The link has nothing to do with your post.
It's just the "lol, okay" because, in my opinion, you are completely wrong.
Nothing disappointing here.

So PS console hardware being down 25% and the division still producing an operating loss is not disappointing, okay...

 

[OléGunner]

It's an assumption that's probably not too far from the truth, Sony wanted the Order to be something big, I believe that that's hard to deny and the Order did not exactly make a huge impact that's hard to deny either. In sales we know that it didn't exactly make a splash in the US market and while we can all tell ourselves that it may have done totally well outside of the US, I think it's more realistic to assume that it hasn't done that either.

I still don't understand how you say the Order was a driving factor for a loss in the division or Sony (which you have not specified). Sure it probably didn't sell amazingly well worldwide but to hang such a noose around it's neck is crazy.

The Vita is a much larger culprit at a $92m write off going by today's ExR.

Cutting the price doesn't always mean hit to the profits. With price cut you increase the volume of consoless sold, volume of sw sold and get more PS+ subscriptions. PS4 is not PS3. With PS3 Sony had to cut the price to gain market share and longer term profits (they sold PS3 with loss for years and years). With PS4 price cut could increase profits already during one quarter (PS4 is already sold with profit).

Yes you're definitely right, I should have mentioned volume might make up for the drop in price. But I still feel Sony will not go for a price cut anytime soon.

Seems Yoshida San says they should be careful with price cutting measures which goes with what I'm thinking, going by the info from that conference call.

 

[shinra-bansho]

In that figure, hardware is reported in unit sales, software is revenue in billions of yen.

 

[Nightengale]

edit: well the headline says the opposite. lol - I'm confused.

It's a grammar confusion on your side.

In the case of the caption, comma is the separator, not the semicolon.

So it's
(a) million units comma
(b) For sales (however) semicolon (it'll be measured in) billion yen (instead)

 

[Omotesando]

The only reason last gen went on so long is because of the massive losses the platform holders had to incur on hardware, and 3rd parties on losing money transitioning to HD development for years. None of those 2 are an issue atm. So it's pretty obvious this gen ain't going to last 8 years before next gen systems release.

I don't think it is that obvious, but anyway my point still remains.

Even if the gen is shorter. The PS4 would have to drop dead like the Wii to remotely stay in the vicinity of the PS3 sales, which is not going to happen.

 

[Welfare]

Good number for the PS4.

 

[John Bender]

So PS console hardware being down 25% and the division still producing an operating loss is not disappointing, okay...

For the FY2014 Q4 (Jan-Mar 2015) - One year after launch?
Yes

 

[Eolz]

Nintendo may but I do not see their next console being much more powerful, if at all, than the PS4 so it is not really going to offer anything new from that perspective.

As far as a short gen goes I really doubt it. I do not see hardware being powerful enough and cheap enough to run 4k native resolutions much before 2020. It may happen if VR takes off but I think the hardware required to do it properly is not that much different to the hardware needed to do 4k properly so the timeline for a good implementation is not going to be that much different IMO.

I can guarantee you the next console gen will happen sooner than you think, and won't be about 4K gaming (even if it'll obviously support 4K video playback). If next gen can't even do 1080p with a stable framerate, then what's the point?
As some said higher, however, it doesn't mean this gen won't still be supported and sell in some markets, like this happened with the previous gen.

Wii cost $249 at launch. PS4 currently costs $399. It's doing crazy well.

This isn't just about price, it's about appeal. The PS2 was 400$ too (adjusted for inflation).
Edit just in case: I'm certainly not saying the PS4 isn't doing well, far from it. Just saying it won't get to PS2 numbers, and that it's still a bit too soon to say it will beat the Wii as well (when the next gen starts).

 

[KillerMan91]

Even if it hits $150,in the developing world it'll still be something like $250-300

I don't think the difference is that big. For example at the moment PS4 is $399 in US and $440 in Saudi Arabia. $129 price point would mean sub $200 prices in developing world. A drastic difference compared to PS3.

 

[Road]

Strong USD hitting a lot of multinationals right now, Sony included. That's a nasty swing in the Yen to Dollar for Q4.

The strong dollar is favoring Sony and Nintendo, though, due to the strong US console market. Both increased their forecast because of it.

Why is there the Wii and no other consoles?

I would assume because it was selling at a record pace and the chart gives a baseline comparison to those sales.

Yes. Wii is the fastest selling console ever; PS4, the second; PS2; the third. Everything else sold slower. They're pointless unless the PS4 starts to sell worse.

I have an old chart with other consoles if anyone wants to look, though: http://sites.google.com/site/japanltdrank//site/japanltdrank/blog/worldwideconsoleshipments

But it says: mln units, for sales (which the only ones marked in the chart for sales are software and network); bln yen (which should be the other numbers)

[]http://abload.de/img/untitledmnu07.png[/IMG]

edit: well the headline says the opposite. lol - I'm confused.

Commas and semicolons are hard. It should read: "mln unts; for sales, bln yen"

 

[Percy]

It's a distant second place

Gran Turismo: 70M
Ratchet & Clank: 26M
God of War: 21M
SingStar: 20M
Uncharted: 17M
Everybody's Golf: 7,5M
Buzz !: 6M

R&C's placing on this somehow seems a lot less impressive when you consider it has had more titles released than any of the rest of the franchises on the list. There's been more Ratchet and Clank games than Uncharted and God of War games combined for perspective.

lmao at Buzz being such a big seller though.

 

[John Bender]

It's a distant second place

Gran Turismo: 70M
Ratchet & Clank: 26M
God of War: 21M
SingStar: 20M
Uncharted: 17M
Everybody's Golf: 7,5M
Buzz !: 6M

Where is my BUZZ! game for the PS4? -_-

 

[Man]

This isn't just about price, it's about appeal. The PS2 was 400$ too (adjusted for inflation).
Edit just in case: I'm certainly not doing the PS4 isn't doing well, far from it. Just saying it won't get to PS2 numbers.

Sure. The PS2 was crazy over a looong time. Currently though the PS4 is trailing quite above it.

 

[Sid]

I don't think the difference is that big. For example at the moment PS4 is $399 in US and $440 in Saudi Arabia. $129 price point would mean sub $200 prices in developing world. A drastic difference compared to PS3.

Is Saudi considered a developing nation? going by the price differential for the PS3/4 in India,China and Brazil I think it can still be pretty big

 

[Nightengale]

Where is my BUZZ! game for the PS4? -_-

It's where Home is, with the Double Agent.

 

[Loris146]

Loss in gaming



Also Yoshida-san about(Kenichiro)pricing


Source:Banned site that fell for the "Fake E3 list".

Off Topic:
Btw is it ok to post info from a banned site as long as you don't link it? Don't think I've seen anything about it in the TOS.

Interesting the part about invest