Melchiah
Member
Timed exclusives rarily sell good a year later on another platform, see Bioshock and Mass Effect 2.
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NPD Sales Results for November 2015 [Up3: Combined Hardware For PS4 + XB1 + Wii U]
- Thread starter Nirolak
- Start date
Timed exclusives rarily sell good a year later on another platform, see Bioshock and Mass Effect 2.
Wanna bet?
Just kidding: in all seriousness why do you say they "can barely do $299 right now". Just curious
Coulomb_Barrier
Member
Very true, I think the Xbox One is one of the ugliest-looking consoles since the 3DO.
So out of the many small considerations that people make when buying a product, it doesn't have looks as one of its positives. The PS4 does. The XB1's physical design is based on a set-top box, a purpose that has now been superseded as purely and simply a games console first and foremost. MS need to redesign the thing asap.
I can't wait to see the slide(s) describing what they think of this from the next investor meeting.
Boombloxer
Member
It will be a note in 1.75 size font
Stilton Disco
Member
I think you're drastically underestimating just how badly public perception was effected by the exclussivity deal, and how much the massive fan backlash would have contributed to that soured image.
The deal has given almost nothing but bad press since day one, every single discussion about the game once it was made exclussive was derailed, no longer about whether the game was good or not or why anyone should be excited, but about how bad of an idea the deal was, how there was no point in buying it when you could wait for it to come out elsewhere, how badly it was going to crash and burn and how much of a kick in the teeth it was for the overwhelming majority of it's fanbase.
You can't have that constantly negative narrative surrounding the title and not expect it to harm sales, especially from the group who usually work as free publicity, the established fans.
Hell, think about how many other titles have benefited from positive word of mouth, how many sequels have gone on to increase sales over their predecessors because of the hype built up around it from people that loved the first game.
MS and SE/CD poisoned the well with this game the moment they signed that deal. It's the reason I and so many people accurately foresaw this disaster the moment it was announced, well before any other factor like Fallout 4 or the Uncharted 4 delay reared their heads.
Without the deal, all we'd have had would have been months of excited fans of the first game bugging it up and getting everybody excited.
That hype train wouldn't have just got the PC/PS fans on board, but would have boosted the Xbox sales too.
I mean there's a reason everyone expects the sequels of popular, critically well received titles to see a sales increase. People sell these games to other people. Take that away, as happened here, and this sales collapse is the result.
Chobel
Member
Because the $299 is happening for a limited time only, and it seems more like a counter for PS4 temporary price cut. This makes me think the decision to go $299 is hurting MS financially but they had to do it to compete.
$349 was a limited time only originally
FF Seraphim
Member
That would make sense considering the XB1 had a bundle for it when it came out.
DR2K
Banned
I imagine it'll be a GOTY like edition.
The Tomb Raider deal was really weird in general because literally the first thing on everyone's mind was "that shit aren't staying exclusive so just tell us when its coming to PS4 and PC?".
Like why even bother to do it. At most it'll push some people really, really ready to buy an Xbox One in 2015 but it wouldn't convince anyone else to do an impulse buy.
Like why even bother to do it. At most it'll push some people really, really ready to buy an Xbox One in 2015 but it wouldn't convince anyone else to do an impulse buy.
Chobel
Member
For 9 weeks though, that's far from limited. They could have done the same with $299 offers but they didn't, which means this new $50 price cut hurt more than the last time.
First and foremost I stated limited as that is how they advertised it.
Very possible but circumstances were different too.
Last year they were getting trounced %marketshare compared to this year and really need to increase install base less becoming almost as bad as the WiiU.
I think honestly think they are still still trying to figure out how to maximize profits whether it's to get as much upfront with console sales vs. increasing install base.
Pride in "losing" in the US is also a factor.
BTW please note my first post on this subject specifically mentioned a factor will be what mft costs will be 6-9 months from now
slavesnyder
Member
Even if we presume that 299$ now is covering the costs - do you really expect them to go down a full 100$ more in 9 months?
At the moment, MS is stating something now, and the opposite the next day.
Last thing I heard, and many here echoed, is that they want to be profitable.
What most hurt the game and the entire deal was Microsoft's attempt to hide the true nature of the deal.
Had they just come out at Gamescom and said "Deal is a timed exclusivity" or "First on XBox", there would be much less negativity (well, at least it would last much shorter, cast aside a couple of days later). But they let the issue linger for months, allowing peiple and press to speculate, assume and debate the nature of exclusivity.
slavesnyder
Member
If I answer it does not automatically mean I call you out or disagree.
As far as I can see you said it depends on their strategy. Sure.
Also you said it depends on if they manage to lower their costs so much. Yes, I completely agree.
I only doubt that they can as 100$ is a lot. So we are on the same side, you are just saying "it might be possible" and I am saying "highly unlikely".
Maybe they will lower the price and eat the costs, but that would be against the strategy they announced recently, being profitable.
If there is something else I missed I am sorry. I think I get a flu...
So, Blops bundle was 251K and not 283K like numbers from NDP_Mulcair pointed? Close enough.
All NDP_Mulcair info we got:
NPD Nov 2014
Advanced Warfare - 4.269M
Advanced Warfare bundled copies included - 4.66M
NPD Nov 2015
Blops3 - 4.607M
Blops3 bundled copies included - 4.89M
[that means 283K PS4 bundles sold]
NPD Nov 2015
Fallout 4 bundled copies included - 2.54M
[probably stronger digital sales]
NPD Nov 2011
Skyrim bundled copies included - 2.833M
NPD Nov 2015
Star Wars: Battlefront - 1.725M
Star Wars: Battlefront bundled copies included - 2.1M
[that means 375K Battlefront bundles sold in Nov]
So, using all of his info we get:
375K Battlefront bundles sold in Nov
283K Blops3 bundles sold in Nov
1539M PS4s sold in Nov
1539-375-283 = [up to] 881K Uncharted Collection bundles sold in Nov
Fair enough.
TBH I don't expect them to be at $199 next holiday season.
That said the reason why I'm saying it's possible is because despite them saying one thing ("we aren't trying to compete against Sony") their action for their pricing this month in response to Sony screams another; that they damn well are still trying to at least match or beat Sony in sales in the US.
So given that I'm making a (logical based in games being released and momentum) assumption that PS4 will continue to widen the gap in the US over the next few months. If somehow mft costs drop to a point to make it reasonable losses in order to continue increasing install base and to "beat Sony", I would not be shocked at all to see $199 even if it's just for Black Friday weekend.
Please also keep in mind I was one of the few last summer that did not think we would see a price cut in the PS4 this calendar year. So my predictions are shitty
slavesnyder
Member
Sign.
I learned to take all MS statements with a huge rock of salt, too. This tale of profitability was entertaining but keeping the price high for a month or two, just to slash it for the two months where half of the sales for the year are made is sweet nonsense.
Also I would like to see who will bring the price further down first. I can imagine that Sony wants to push VR and for that make it affordable (if they are not dumb).
If the headset is 250 to 300 they could announce a bundle for 450 to 500, having the price of the console included psychologically at 200 to 250. And that would put MS further under pressure.
Let's put this under fan fiction so far, but 299$ have been fan fiction 3 months ago, too.
I said a few pages before. Maybe PS3/X360 versions aren't specified in creamsugar's post, but they are in NPD_Mulcair's post.
I'm not sure George's post was to be read as the bundle doing 283k.
What he said was:
4.89 million units "including bundles".
4.607 million units "when you just look at the software side of things", whatever that means.
Later he posted:
The bolded reads like the "including bundles" figure includes everything including collector's editions and the "software only" figure is just the standard edition, but not any collector's editions.
So that explains the 32k "missing" in creamsugar's bundle figure.
In a month where Wii U HW has sold x4 the average amount per month, I wanted to know if SW also saw a similar multiplier (at least the supposed evergreen titles).
I imagine that having 2 games in the bundle (Splatoon and Smash) affected SW sales negatively but I suppose that in December we'll see better SW results for Nintendo.
Thanks for the input John! Always appreciated
RE: MS flip-flopping
I mentioned it in an earlier post and think it's worthwhile to put into context here. I wonder if part of the flip-flopping on price/profitability is because they still haven't decided their strategy for them to make the most $ (I.e. Most $ as possible upfront on sales vs. brand growth/making $ on backend thru LIVE subs etc)
It's ok to change business strategies, in fact it's vital to assess, reassess and adjust. But I just hope they aren't wandering around aimlessly in the desert.
RE: PSVR and pricing
I'm also awaiting to see how that turns out. Based on comments I'm guessing it's going to be ~$300 initially. I would be surprised if they did a bundle like threw out in that price range but again see the bottom of my last post.
slavesnyder
Member
Spencer has to show that the division is profitable and can sell good numbers.
Problem is that both at the same time doesn't seem to be possible.
True
Even if/when it's profitable at some point they have to as a company look at overall vision and opportunity cost.
(I believe) they had a pretty clear vision and their long game for the Xbox division from the beginning of the OG Xbox. I just wonder if the XB1 backlash and changes to the marketplace that made that original vision less viable threw them for such a loop they are still trying to figure out the best way to go from here (hence also the increased emphasis on PC gaming and integration etc)
Do we have any numbers how much a die shrink saves MS and Sony?
To my knowledge we don't even know exactly how much each console costs to mft now
Katana_Strikes
Member
Demo of FFVIIR with every copy. It's the only chance.
Ghost Slayer
Member
This is a good idea. I would pay 60 bucks for FFVIIR demo bonus with RoTR
slavesnyder
Member
Are those not included in the NPD reports?
Last month we also did not get them at the beginning.
I wonder why.
1st Course
Member
They are always the last thing we get for some reason.
They definitely are. Which is why it's odd that they seem to be the absolute last peice of info given for the past few NPD threads. Peculiar that. Only thing I can think of is that insides maybe don't want to report large declines or something. Who knows.
Thank you for numbers cream
With November squids are actually very close to 1 million in the US with digital. It was at 600k in August so if it did over 100k over the course of September/October right now it should be very close to that million. So overall it's keeping track with sales in Japan.
With the confirmed sales in Germany(100k) and in France probably doing beyond that it's likely beyond 2.5 million WW at the moment.
So 3 million squids is a possibility by the end of the year I think it should do about 150-200k in Japan in the next few weeks.
I'm guessing Halo, AC, JD are all between 300-390k. Thus I overestimated all their totals.
Were Minecraft and GTA numbers 11/12 with over 300k in total sales?
Earlier in the thread NPD George told that his software numbers are from standard editions and totals with bundle includes everything.
Night Angel
Member
I want the game to fail miserably. I'll be doing my part by getting it used from GS or ebay.
SE saw fit to shit on me as a consumer, so I'll gladly return the favor.
I think you're underestimating how uninteresting a year-old game is in the fall release window.
George said that CoD total is 4.89m, minus 251k we can use 4.639m.
XBO- ~1948k
PS4- ~1902k + 251k Bundle
360- ~506k
PS3- ~283k
Which thanks to the 1 year delay (instead of 3/ 6 months) would now release again during a crowded Holiday, now with a possible Goty edition of UC4, on top of all the new titles which may include one with a red headed female hunting robo dinos with a bow.
The only way to avoid this would be to delay to Q1 2017, which would make the delay even more of a joke.
S-E got themselves in a lose/ lose situation imo.
I hope for them the check really was huge, because all I see is a disaster (for a videogame franchise though, gotta keep some perspective) in the making.
Great arguments that the clueless hack at Polygon was too ignorant to think of.
creamsugar number for Battlefront (less than 1.73m) fits with George number (1725k), so for sure in this case George has included all SKUs. We can use creamsugar split with 1725k and add ~375k for bundle (2.1m is the total)
[PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront- ~1257.5k (~882.5k + ~375k Bundle)
[XBO] Star Wars: Battlefront- ~842.5k
Batlefront on PS4 sold almost the same as Fallout 4 PS4 (~1265k). Bundle helped a lot.
[PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront- ~1257.5k (~882.5k + ~375k Bundle)
[XBO] Star Wars: Battlefront- ~842.5k
Batlefront on PS4 sold almost the same as Fallout 4 PS4 (~1265k). Bundle helped a lot.
Another COD bundle incoming
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189159881&postcount=453
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=189159881&postcount=453
ethomaz
Banned
Sony won't make the same mistake they did last year.
slavesnyder
Member
Nice way to start a second wave after the limited bundle that made more cash I guess.
Star wars had limited and standard simultaniously because time was money before the film starts.