KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
Do people actually still think that?
I think it's been pretty obvious since Splatoon's release that the PS4 isn't passing the Wii U in Japan until sometime in 2017.
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Media Create Sales: Week 50, 2015 (Dec 07 - Dec 13)
- Thread starter Chris1964
- Start date
Do people actually still think that?
I think it's been pretty obvious since Splatoon's release that the PS4 isn't passing the Wii U in Japan until sometime in 2017.
freikugeln
Member
Does Splatoon receive any kind of advertising in Japan to keep the sales up or is it just from word of mouth?
ohyouagain
Member
You're doubting Builders ? I don't think it will land too far, especially since there are three versions of it.
Holy crap. I guess the word of mouth is really positive with this game.
Can we now get it outside of Japan though, even as digital only? pls?
small44
Member
Never expected big number for this game
Gravity Rush 
IMO PS4 will pass Wii U next year. First real strong PS4 line up for Japan when Wii U will be winding down, NX could also be a factor.
IMO PS4 will pass Wii U next year. First real strong PS4 line up for Japan when Wii U will be winding down, NX could also be a factor.
Sammy Samusu
Member
It's a success no doubt. But I wonder how big of a success it would be on the 3DS.
Pennywise83
Banned
Steins Gate 0 sold well - but remember that Steins Gate is a popular VN. It opened at 86k on PSP and landed at over 135k.
If only the handheld was capable...
small44
Member
Expected with no big games in Holiday
Napalm_Frank
Member
Fallout 4 could give it some life for holidays at least.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Umm? Minecraft?
than you should count all Minecraft versions too, right?
I think that even if way smaller, counting digital also PS3 and 4 version could add a decent amount on top of Vita numbers.
Diddy Kong
Banned
Digital only this week. Retail versions are coming next year.
Waluigilicious
Member
47k new wii u owners and not even 4k bought smash. .
We already got official Nintendo confirmation, however.
Famitsu
[WIU] Splatoon: 997.881 (Retail: 889.773, Digital: 108.108)
Digital is off by at least 50k now.
Also Mario Maker joins the 500k club.
[WIU] Super Mario Maker: 538.606 (Retail: 496.106, Digital: 42.500)
Minecraft, best selling game on Vita by a huge margin:
Famitsu
[WIU] Splatoon: 997.881 (Retail: 889.773, Digital: 108.108)
Digital is off by at least 50k now.
Also Mario Maker joins the 500k club.
[WIU] Super Mario Maker: 538.606 (Retail: 496.106, Digital: 42.500)
Minecraft, best selling game on Vita by a huge margin:
- [PSV] Minecraft: PlayStation Vita Edition: 722.283 (Retail: 404.070, Digital: 318.213)
- [PSV] God Eater 2 [All Versions]: 427.863 (Retail: 397.994, Digital: 29.869)
I believe it dropped out of the top 10 one or two weeks. But that's only because there were 8-10 releases those weeks. iirc anyway.
wait wait, this is the first (and only?) week where the Wii U actually shows being capable to beat PS4 post-price-cut. I could see the Wii U still beat the PS4 next week and maybe the week after, while with the new-year-week PS4 will be back on top.
The holiday boost for Nintendo will last 3/4 weeks, while PS4 clearly got a new baseline after the price cut and the release of some key title (such as MGS V
And while PS4 will clearly enter a better year, with way more key releases for the Japanese market and a full year at a lower price, the Wii U is entering a very weak 2016: there will be a way diminished Splatoon effect, of course; there will be even less software and in any case nothing that is able to appeal a brand new audience (unlike Splatoon and partially Super Mario Maker), if you consider that there will be Mario Tennis (January), Zelda remake (March, and LOL anyway), probably a brand new Zelda (that will attract zero new audience, imho, even if it will be "good" for what it is, today, in Japan, on home console.................) and nothing else.
The only game that "could" attract new people is maybe Pokken, but apart from Smash, I think that the beat'em up genre proved to be a niche genre in Japan recently (doesn't it?).
Plus, the Wii U is..increasing in price, unlike the PS4 (and any other console in history): the Splatoon bundle is more expensive than the MK8 one; the #FE bundle is even more expensive; the Pokken bundle is more expensive than a PS4 in Japan....
Not counting a possible NX announcement that, if it will be at least ALSO an home console, will clearly affect negatively Wii U's sales, of course.
So, on what are you basing your projection of Wii U VS PS4 LTD? They are separated by 660K on MC. The year will be made of 52 weeks more or less. That would mean for the PS4 to be able to sell an average of 12.6k units more than the Wii U. Do you really think that it's so impossible for the PS4 to do that?
I don't think so.
My calculations are simple: if PS4 would have downed the difference to 500k, that could mean they pass Wii U by the time 2016 december, with a weekly difference of 10k sales.
If, however, the difference not only does not go down to 500k, but goes up to 750-800k, that means that they now need to sell 16k more weekly to reach the same. Possible? Maybe. Likely? I do not think so.
Again: I am not questioning the pass, I am questioning the WHEN. Early 2017 sounds more realistic than the whole "ps4 has the momentum" thing. Because at the end of the day, console sales are not accelerating that much on a year-to-year basis.
If, however, the difference not only does not go down to 500k, but goes up to 750-800k, that means that they now need to sell 16k more weekly to reach the same. Possible? Maybe. Likely? I do not think so.
Again: I am not questioning the pass, I am questioning the WHEN. Early 2017 sounds more realistic than the whole "ps4 has the momentum" thing. Because at the end of the day, console sales are not accelerating that much on a year-to-year basis.
ohyouagain
Member
What on earth ? Actual sales are double the retail sales ? Damn.Ōkami;189495575 said:
A lot of these speculations are tied to the release dates of Final Fantasy XV (you might want to say "lol") and Final Fantasy VII RE Ch. 1 ("roflmao").
It is according to Mojang.
Canis lupus
Member
Lol, only if you think PS4 won't widen it's ~500k lead this year to over 700k next year with all the big games and possible Slim model and price cut, then maybe Wii U will still be on top just a bit longer.
Sammy Samusu
Member
Yeah. I wonder if the New 3DS can run it.
I'm wondering about the effect of NX on Wii U sales, myself. Anticipation for a replacement system should definitely drive Wii U sales down, but at the same time, I don't think aggressive price cuts to clear stock are impossible, so it could still sell Wii-U-decent numbers well into next year.
Of course, that doesn't change the PS4 situation.
The PS4 needs to be up only ~10% YoY next year to pass the Wii U, that's under the extremely unlikely assumption that Wii U shows absolutely no decline next year.
If you assume that PS4 will be up much more than 10% next year, & that Wii U will show a steep decline, the PS4 can pass it as early as late Summer.
I'd be pretty upset if it could as that would mean the n3ds is more powerful than my laptop.
Wii U might not be the only system NX impacts though...
Your laptop's weaker than an iPhone 3GS?
Moor-Angol
Banned
While I wouldn't go quite that far yet, what I do think is clear is that they have a serious competitor who is unlikely to just go away in a year or two.
At this point, they have to start responding by investing more in their core product, or it's going to become increasingly problematic.
The children's market is a bit of a double edged sword. On the one hand, every six years, at least half your audience is new, so repetition in the fundamental product is less problematic than it might be for a core game targeting the same audience for 20 years. On the other hand, all the new people don't have brand loyalty to your product and are going to ask their parents for whatever seems more immediately appealing if they're told they can only have one.
KuwabaraTheMan
Banned
On a week to week basis? Yeah, I think it's impossible for it to do that all year. There will definitely be weeks where it's going to outsell the Wii U by more than that, but there will be weeks where it's outselling it by less, and even weeks where the Wii U outsells it (Zelda launch, Golden Week, etc).
Keep in mind that with the goal being surpassing the Wii U by the end of 2016, even a week where the PS4 outsells the Wii U by 10K is considered a loss.
FF XV is coming out next year. SE already announced an event in March where they will reveal the release date and some insiders already alluded to September release. Outside of that SE is going ham with Sony next year:
DQ Builders
DQ Heroes 2
DQ XI (I don't think it will release in 2016 for PS4 but who knows)
SO 5
KH 2.8
Project Setsuna
We will probably see FF VII remake demo with one of those games. There's also:
Persona 5
Dark Souls 3
Valkyria Chronicles Remasters with Azure demo, full game which is scheduled for winter 2016
Yakuza
Street Fighter V
The Last Guardian
VR
Wii U releases that I can think of are:
Pokken,
Star Fox
Zelda.
I may be forgetting some game for both but generally I think PS4 will have much higher baseline than WiiU over the course of the year based on the line up alone. NX could be a factor too but it will hurt sales of Wii U more than PS4.
Wii U year to date: 651.468
PS4 year to date: 1.165.211
PS4 sold 513k more than Wii U so far this year. And this is with the Splatoon effect, Super Mario Maker (way bigger than any 2016 Wii U release), a weaker PS4 lineup compared to the next year one, and 9 months of full priced PS4.
I think it's a safe bet to say that next year, considering all the elements I stated before, the PS4 will be able to sell even more compared to the Wii U.
Now, the yearly gap could be smaller if the Wii U will sell more than PS4 again in the next two weeks (three is impossible, considering how usually the new-year week is more favourable to Sony consoles than Nintendo's). let's say that the gap will be even higher than this week. This week the Wii U sold 9k more than PS4. Let's pretend that the gap will be double for two week and so let's say that the Wii U will sell 36k more than PS4 from now until the end of the year.
The yearly gap would be decrase, let's say around 480k. Isn't it safe to tell the PS4 next year will be able to sell more than 480k more than the Wii U?
and, being the global gap around 660k, even with it becoming around 700k, don't you think that it will be easily achievable for the PS4 to fill that gap?
In what way are they different? They seem pretty similar outside of UI changes.
Exterminieren
Banned
I do perhaps wonder if Pokémon Z was delayed back into next year to provide a more compelling experience, possibly as a direct response to Yo-Kai Watch.
Saying the franchise is in big trouble is daft hyperbole, but it's apparent Yo-Kai Watch is going nowhere fast, and is making a play directly for the traditional Pokémon audience.
Saying the franchise is in big trouble is daft hyperbole, but it's apparent Yo-Kai Watch is going nowhere fast, and is making a play directly for the traditional Pokémon audience.
Bolded the games that won't do anything to the hardware. Italics for games that will move minimal amount of hardware.
That leaves Yakuza 6, Persona 5, Final Fantasy XV, & Dragon Quest XI as the games that will move great hardware.
I think the PS4 will easily pass Wii U next year, but let's not overestimate games like The Last Guardian & Street Fighter, & Dark Souls 3 already has a majority of its fanbase on PS4 due to Bloodborne.
http://minecraft.gamepedia.com/Pocket_Edition_version_history#0.13
http://minecraft.gamepedia.com/Pocket_Edition_hardware_performance_(iOS)
As time went on and features were added, the thing runs progressively worse on older iOS hardware. You can see the full versioning history in the first link and some user reports of performance issues as time went on, and on which versions.
The 3DS is also not a pound for pound match up here to the 3GS. They're different systems with different constraints.
Those links don't tell me anything about the differences between the PC and pocket edition though. The second link is also empty for some reason.
As of December 4th, non-exhaustive: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hSt9xmbNJig
They're trying to make Pocket Edition the replacement eventually to note, since Java is horrible. The question is if you can run it all in the 3DS's ~92 MB of RAM.
As it stands they're still missing parts of the end game like bosses and a variety of cosmetic options.
Pennywise83
Banned
Yeah, Pokémon finally got a serious competitor and it's quite astonishing to see YW leading sw sales for two years in a row - I still think YW is going to deflate next year, but until now L5 has been working well in keeping brand awareness high and YW might stabilize around reasonable levels (e.g. YW3 doing something like 2-2.5m).