slavesnyder
Member
possible but not likely. but even if that happens - I can't see the drama here. It's both PS4s sales. Sony gives a fart which one you buy as long as you join the ecosystem and wait for free knack until eternity.
-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
October 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wed., November 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Might happen Nov and/or Dec. It's the launch of the new hotness. The Slim may technically be a new release, but it doesn't do anything new and gives you no reason to be excited.
I also see some potential for upsell to Pro. If you've already come down off the fence and decided to buy, the barrier is quite low to spend just a little bit more to "future-proof"/"get the proper version" etc.
The Pro does not have a head start in any way shape or form. And it's at a min $100 more expensive.
You talking crazy
Sure you'll get some upsell hear and there.
But if your the kid who spent the last 3 years waiting for the PS4 to fall into your price range, you are not just going to fork over the amount it would have cost you to buy in at launch 3 years ago.
If your mom, trying to get something off on everyone's wish list, you are going to try to make your money stretch. Any slims or OG PS4s sitting on the shelf are gonna go bye bye first.
We've seen it time and time again, price will be the main determining factor. Pro will mainly go to people who already have a PS4 and want the lasted tech. It won't be primarily going to new customers. I think the majority of folks willing to spend $400+ on a console have already done so.
slavesnyder
Member
exactly. it's a cheap trick that always works. upsell.
and the good thing: it also works in reverse. buy the cheaper one and you actually saved money!
pro has stacked some preorders. he has a point.
Sure, but there are likely countless OG PS4s and Slims sitting on shelves that will be sold at a faster clip than the Pros that haven't been reserved.
You're looking at this from the wrong perspective.
The Slim is not a new product, it's the way Sony could cut the PS4 price to 299$ (and even lower with future deals).
If it wasn't for the Slim the PS4 would still cost 349$ today or Sony would need to slash their profits.
So the Slim was not a choice or a mistake, it was a necessity.
Also about MS vs Sony it's clear that they're having different strategies with different timings that will bring fruits in different moments.
PS4 sales right now are obviously not at full potential because there is a group of consumers waiting for the Pro, those sales are not lost though, they are just delayed, in the meantime Microsoft had fire sales to 250$, deals with free games included, other specific deals at particular retailers, new hardware introducing extra features that are worth the upgrade for a group of existing owners. You really can't say that they aren't trying hard.
And with all this in the end what did they gain? Less than 200k over three months in their main market? That is nothing looking at the full picture, it's just enough to get a few PR headlines.
November+December are where the biggest chunk of the yearly sales are made, when Microsoft in 2014 was able to cut the PS4 lead in half in the US from 1m to 500k, it's not like the number of months that Sony won previously mattered much. That was a big success story for MS, so big that probably saved them, not 175k over the three summer months.
About Pro vs Slim sales, Slim is definetly going to sell more because it will get really attractive bundles and a price cut to 250$ on BF (and possibly beyond like last year). That won't happen with the Pro that will stay at 399$ and after the initial huge sales to core gamers and upgraders will be left as the more expensive option targeting a much smaller market made of core gamers and enthusiasts with 4K TVs.
Bitch Pudding
Member
No, just, no.
You have to let go the idea that two PS4 SKUs equals twice as much PS4 sales. Of course Sony bets that they'll be able to sell more PS4s (Slim+Pro), but not twice as many. So in other words, it was obvious that PS4 Slim alone was no match for XBOX One S in the US. Sony still sold a fuckload of units during the last two months.
While the PS4 Pro will do fine at $399 (especially with inevitable bundles), the Slim surely has potential for future additonal price cuts. A $249 PS4 Slim will sell like crazy and maybe, maybe, this is when you'll realize that the Slim was an excellent choice.
Welfare
Member
PS4 Pro is an addition to the PS4, not a replacement. You shouldn't expect sales to double, but you should expect sales to improve.
For example, the PS4 sells 100,000 a week. With the Pro, there are some possibilities. One, Pro eats PS4 sales without generating more interest.
So now you are still selling 100,000 PS4's, but some amount is Pro, the other isn't. This isn't good as that could either mean overall demand is falling but Pro is able to keep sales afloat or demand for the Pro is negligible.
Another possibility is sales improve. Demand for the PS4 stay about the same and there is an opportunity for hardcore buyers and enthusiasts to buy the Pro.
Now there are 100,000 PS4's and some amount of Pro, or just +100,000. Thus is good as now overall hardware sales are up and more chances to make profit.
Then there is the least likely option. Somehow the Pro opens up this massive untapped market that never bought a PS4 at $399 and now both the PS4 and Pro are selling about the same.
100,000 PS4 a week as well as 100,000 Pro a week.
Slim sales will improve in the holidays as, like in every generation, people hold out until a device is cheap enough. Keep a product at the same price forever and sales will crater as the market for $400 machines will be tapped. Slim will be $249 this Black Friday and sales will massively improve. Now with the PS4 Pro, out of the +40 million current PS4 owners, that reopens a new way for them to rebuy into the ecosystem that wouldn't exist before. This is a smart way to circumvent the traditional slowdown of sales past the peak year.
For example, the PS4 sells 100,000 a week. With the Pro, there are some possibilities. One, Pro eats PS4 sales without generating more interest.
So now you are still selling 100,000 PS4's, but some amount is Pro, the other isn't. This isn't good as that could either mean overall demand is falling but Pro is able to keep sales afloat or demand for the Pro is negligible.
Another possibility is sales improve. Demand for the PS4 stay about the same and there is an opportunity for hardcore buyers and enthusiasts to buy the Pro.
Now there are 100,000 PS4's and some amount of Pro, or just +100,000. Thus is good as now overall hardware sales are up and more chances to make profit.
Then there is the least likely option. Somehow the Pro opens up this massive untapped market that never bought a PS4 at $399 and now both the PS4 and Pro are selling about the same.
100,000 PS4 a week as well as 100,000 Pro a week.
Slim sales will improve in the holidays as, like in every generation, people hold out until a device is cheap enough. Keep a product at the same price forever and sales will crater as the market for $400 machines will be tapped. Slim will be $249 this Black Friday and sales will massively improve. Now with the PS4 Pro, out of the +40 million current PS4 owners, that reopens a new way for them to rebuy into the ecosystem that wouldn't exist before. This is a smart way to circumvent the traditional slowdown of sales past the peak year.
Hi! and Welcome. Always nice to have more insight around no matter what form it may take. But man
why you gotta dash my hopes like that? Now I'm disappointed.
Just kidding. Glad to have a new voice here.
I guess this means NPD actually knows me 
Welfare
Member
It is pretty funny he called you out specifically. That was months ago.Hi! and Welcome. Always nice to have more insight around no matter what form it may take. But man
why you gotta dash my hopes like that? Now I'm disappointed. I guess this mean NPD actually knows me
Just kidding. Glad to have a new voice here.
Given Abdiel's insight and the success of BF1 in UK Im increasing my XB1 figures for this month. Seems like MS might really run away with this one.
Looking into November and beyond:
I'm really curious how profoundly the release of Pokemon Sun and Moon will bump 3DS sales this holiday given the public awareness Pokemon Go generated/revived. I expect those games to be a big HW pusher this holiday season.
I'm also surprised that no PS4 slim CoD bundle has been revealed for sale this holiday yet as the BOPs Bundle was clearly a big winner for Sony throughout the year this year. Even with the impending release of Pro you would think they would be anxious to get a new CoD SKU out the door to encourage some solid sales. The fact that they dont have a CoD bundle available day 1 with the release of Infinite Warfare is just crazy to me. Surely they will have a CoD bundle available before Black Friday on the 25th right?
I think MS is pretty much set with the Minecraft Bundle and the BF1 bundle already being available. I see those being their primary hardware movers this holiday albeit I wonder which bundle will end up pushing more units before years end. Both should sell quite well for them regardless.
Right? Not sure if I should feel honored or concerned haha
Feels weird being noticed by official people.
Honestly by most indications the opposite is far more likely. We have reports from multiple retail insiders as well as Amazon showing a very strong preorder response for Pro. I expect it will sell quite well up front to a slew of existing hardcore owners looking to upgrade. I actually think theresa chance Pro might outsell slim in November albeit it is a small one. Whether or not it will continue to sell well after that initial surge though is the real question. I still think the lack of a UHD will hurt the slaes potential of the system in the long run even if people arent really buying many UHDs its still a perk that people are aware of and its absence in this new premium SKU will almost certainly impact its appeal with the more mainstream enthusiast market. It really is a baffling exclusion IMHO.
Looking into November and beyond:
I'm really curious how profoundly the release of Pokemon Sun and Moon will bump 3DS sales this holiday given the public awareness Pokemon Go generated/revived. I expect those games to be a big HW pusher this holiday season.
I'm also surprised that no PS4 slim CoD bundle has been revealed for sale this holiday yet as the BOPs Bundle was clearly a big winner for Sony throughout the year this year. Even with the impending release of Pro you would think they would be anxious to get a new CoD SKU out the door to encourage some solid sales. The fact that they dont have a CoD bundle available day 1 with the release of Infinite Warfare is just crazy to me. Surely they will have a CoD bundle available before Black Friday on the 25th right?
I think MS is pretty much set with the Minecraft Bundle and the BF1 bundle already being available. I see those being their primary hardware movers this holiday albeit I wonder which bundle will end up pushing more units before years end. Both should sell quite well for them regardless.
Right? Not sure if I should feel honored or concerned haha
Feels weird being noticed by official people.
Honestly by most indications the opposite is far more likely. We have reports from multiple retail insiders as well as Amazon showing a very strong preorder response for Pro. I expect it will sell quite well up front to a slew of existing hardcore owners looking to upgrade. I actually think theresa chance Pro might outsell slim in November albeit it is a small one. Whether or not it will continue to sell well after that initial surge though is the real question. I still think the lack of a UHD will hurt the slaes potential of the system in the long run even if people arent really buying many UHDs its still a perk that people are aware of and its absence in this new premium SKU will almost certainly impact its appeal with the more mainstream enthusiast market. It really is a baffling exclusion IMHO.
AnthonypUK
Member
Whats more stranger is we have them in the UK (EU), but in the Pro boxing thread, weren't their infinite warfare Pro boxes, maybe the sony tactic is not use Americas love for COD to push people to buy the slim, but to push people to buy the Pro and have a COD-Pro Bundle only?
I dunno, i can't see the sense in it either, but thats the only reason i can think of that they wouldn't have a slim bundle in the games most important territory.
Who knows maybe BF $250 slim-COD will be announced once pro is out?
Will we have any way of knowing the Pro/Slim split?
I honestly do not think the amount of preorders (made mostly by returning customers) will be enough to offset the number of new users who will buy the cheaper model this holiday season.
And on the shelf, the pro won't stand a chance next to the slim.
I honestly do not think the amount of preorders (made mostly by returning customers) will be enough to offset the number of new users who will buy the cheaper model this holiday season.
And on the shelf, the pro won't stand a chance next to the slim.
Bitch Pudding
Member
At least at current price levels Slim is going to get creamed by Pro.
No way.
New users are going to favor the slim by a wide margin. Why would someone wait 3 years for PS4 to reach their price range, only to spend $400 anyway? Especially when they can save $100 for games or anything else.
That's unheard of. The Pro will be sold mostly to returning enthusiasts. It certainly won't be the one mom/dads grabs when given the choice.
History has shown us time and time again that price trumps all. $100 isn't insignificant to the price concious.
Edit:
The only way the Pro will outsell slim is if Xbox 1s steals a significant number of would be slim buyers and the Pro is an uncharacteristicly popular upgrade for existing PS4 owners.
slavesnyder
Member
Will Pro outsell 1S?
No, One S will sell like hotcakes in black friday.
Unknown?
Member
Europe has some and I expect them to announce it closer to launch. They usually don't announce it far in advance. As for HW I think Amazon is probably correct October had a full month at $299 whereas September was less than half a month at that price.
MatPiscatella
Member
Source for current hotcake sales velocities? I don't see hotcakes in my database. Want to see if hotcakes will be a good comp. Not a lot of benchmarks for the iterative console gen model yet.
I think yes, Abediel said that Pro is very well received and surely gain momentum
No it is basically the cheapest 4k blu ray player, people already buying it for that reason alone.
I'm saying that will sell on black friday, not that is selling right now.
MatPiscatella
Member
I was joking dude.
The worst 4K player in the market? not even can play some movies of the limited catalog and limited sound options...mmm lets see will be an interesting holiday for sure
Welfare
Member
You should fit right in with SalesGAF. Just a bunch of jokers.
Sorry, english is not my primary language so I didn't understand as a joke.
MatPiscatella
Member
Sorry. Just having some fun with the idiom and referring to the difficulty in forecasting potential sales of these iterative consoles as it's a new market model.
I'm a quant. Not being funny isn't really too surprising I guess.
Bitch Pudding
Member
Not in the US, but on a global scale, that's another story.
Well, Xbox is a platform that sells very well in november, so even not knowing how PS4 Pro will be received, I don't think it has potential to outsell Xbox One S, unless stock of old models remains high in retail.
Sangetsu-II
Member
slavesnyder
Member
Really?
I have the impression 4k bluray is just a bulletpoint, but not really a feature that is used in reality, like the usb port of my kitchen radio.
S is smaller and pretty. That's the main selling point.
Primethius
Banned
Even WW, I'm not really seeing a situation in which the Pro outsells what is the default XB1 mode moving forward.
Sangetsu-II
Member
Are you sure about that? In Japan and Germany alone PS4 sales account more than 4x that of a regular XB1 and XB1 sales are lower than that of Wii U.
You think if you account the places where XB1 S isn't being sold (tier 2 countries) versus PS4P being sold WW even in China. You still think XB1 S sells more than PS4P by individual sku?
I would bet that regular XB1 consoles still account a great portion of sales than the XB1 S due to extreme deals and price cuts in Tier 2 countries.
XB1 S is only selling in NA and UK.
So I don't think XB1 S Beats PS4P sales WW specifically but we'll see.
I just can't envision a scenario where a $400 console is the top selling device 3 years into a generation.
now the time where price concious folks finally get on board. And they'll be getting Slims and Xb1s.
Bitch Pudding
Member
On the other hand, we've already seen some incredible deals for both PS4 and XBOX One. Like here in Germany where you could get a PS4 for $199 and stuff like that. And I agree that once XB1S and Slim are officially reduced to $249 both will sell like crazy, but for now, so November 2016, the Pro is in a good postion to beat them all, as long as Sony is able to ship enough consoles, that is.
Dash_Riprock
Member
Um, do you realize how little the Xbox One sells outside of NA/UK?
Welfare
Member
Do we know how well it sells after the S, or even how well it will sell in 2017?
Let us wait until the Pro actually launches and sells in the spring/summer before we start comparing anything.
I don't think previous deals on xb1s and PS4 matter. There are tens of millions of last gen console owners who have not bought a current gen system yet, and a $400 console isn't going to sway them when there are much cheaper options sitting on the same shelf capable of playing the same games.
Sure, many people have already taken advantage of good deals. But people know holiday shopping period is around the corner.
if the impending launch of the Pro has surpressed PS4 sales (which i don't entirely believe since the target audience already has a PS4 and wouldn't be in the market for a PS4 if the pro didn't exist) , then the approach of Black Friday has suppress xb1s and slim sales to an even higher degree.
AnthonypUK
Member
We can make some assumptions about outside the UK/US.
US Xbox sales in the quarter UP yoy from NPD's
UK Xbox sales in the quarter UP from PAL/MCV info
Worldwide Xbox Sales in the quarter DOWN yoy - from MS financial's
The only way those 3 match up is if the ROW Xbox sales are down, so down they even cancel out the US and UK gains.
This is in the same quarter that the S launched so including Pre orders, and that only Xbox Bundle (FIFA) that will appeal to Europe was released.
That aside, outside of its launch month, there is zero chance a premium console in the Pro will sell more then the S, even worldwide.
Alot of the PS4 gains are in new markets/less developed for consoles where the Xbox simply isn't, thus i think they'll be more inclined to go with the more price conscious choice of the slim, especially as it continues to reduce in price into next year.
And so it begins.
Waiting for Pro < Waiting for Black Friday Deals... by a long shot IMO
The Pro is compelling mostly to existing PS4 enthusiasts who just have to have the latest and greatest. The Slim and One S are compelling to people trying to get current gen consoles for the low.
The latter group is much larger than former in my estimation.
slavesnyder
Member
But it's a prediction thread...