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October 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Wed., November 9th

Welfare

Welfare

Member
AnthonypUK said:
We can make some assumptions about outside the UK/US.

US Xbox sales in the quarter UP yoy from NPD's
UK Xbox sales in the quarter UP from PAL/MCV info

Worldwide Xbox Sales in the quarter DOWN yoy - from MS financial's

The only way those 3 match up is if the ROW Xbox sales are down, so down they even cancel out the US and UK gains.

This is in the same quarter that the S launched so including Pre orders, and that only Xbox Bundle (FIFA) that will appeal to Europe was released.

That aside, outside of its launch month, there is zero chance a premium console in the Pro will sell more then the S, even worldwide.

Alot of the PS4 gains are in new markets/less developed for consoles where the Xbox simply isn't, thus i think they'll be more inclined to go with the more price conscious choice of the slim, especially as it continues to reduce in price into next year.
Click to expand...

Well, the 500GB and 1TB XB1S only had 2 weeks of sales in Europe and was only in 4 countries for 6 weeks (New Zealand, US, Australia, and Canada).

In fact as of right now MS has only supplied the XB1S to 25 out of the 42 countries they have launched in.

Code: 
Australia
Austria

Belgium

Canada
Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland
France

Germany
Greece

Hungary

Ireland
Italy

Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway

Poland
Portugal

Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland

Turkey

UK 
US

This is missing big markets for the Xbox One such as the complete lack of Latin America and nothing in Asia or the Middle East. So while 25 countries got resupplied with the XB1S, every other country is just selling the regular XB1.

slavesnyder said:
But it's a prediction thread...
Click to expand...
You got me there!

In the Americas, the XB1S will sell more. Europe I have no idea.
 
S

Sangetsu-II

Member
Welfare said:
Well, the 500GB and 1TB XB1S only had 2 weeks of sales in Europe and was only in 4 countries for 6 weeks (New Zealand, US, Australia, and Canada).

In fact as of right now MS has only supplied the XB1S to 25 out of the 42 countries they have launched in.

This is missing big markets for the Xbox One such as the complete lack of Latin America and nothing in Asia or the Middle East. So while 25 countries got resupplied with the XB1S, every other country is just selling the regular XB1.
Click to expand...

This is why I think PS4P will sell more worldwide than XB1 S specifically.

PS4P will release WW getting more sales in the countries where their is no XB1 S (making it the go to 4K console) while MS will forget about the Tier 2 countries again.
 
O

Omnistalgic

Member
Welfare said:
Well, the 500GB and 1TB XB1S only had 2 weeks of sales in Europe and was only in 4 countries for 6 weeks (New Zealand, US, Australia, and Canada).

In fact as of right now MS has only supplied the XB1S to 25 out of the 42 countries they have launched in.

Code: 
Australia
Austria

Belgium

Canada
Czech Republic

Denmark

Finland
France

Germany
Greece

Hungary

Ireland
Italy

Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway

Poland
Portugal

Slovakia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland

Turkey

UK 
US

This is missing big markets for the Xbox One such as the complete lack of Latin America and nothing in Asia or the Middle East. So while 25 countries got resupplied with the XB1S, every other country is just selling the regular XB1.


You got me there!

In the Americas, the XB1S will sell more. Europe I have no idea.
Click to expand...
oh man...we did this at the beginning of the gen remember? "Ps4 is available in so many other countries, X1 is neck and neck"

I think MS launched in the places where sales are worth a damn man.
 
A

AnthonypUK

Member
Welfare said:
This is missing big markets for the Xbox One such as the complete lack of Latin America and nothing in Asia or the Middle East. So while 25 countries got resupplied with the XB1S, every other country is just selling the regular XB1.
Click to expand...


Reasoning like this takes me back to early 2014, when sales of the Xbox were falling behind and people were pointing to tier 2 and unreleased countries, saying thats where they'll catch up the sales, and it never happened.

There's a reason its not been launched in those countries yet, you don't have a new product and not release it in the markets you know its going to make an impact in.

Also in their guidance they said in their holiday season they expect UK and US to perform well, but still a decline in revenue and consoles sold overall.. So even MS themselves aren't expecting any sort of growth from the release of the S, why are you?
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
That was in response to why shipments would be down. Been kind of vague to what I have responded to recently so I apologize. There was zero connection to the PS4 Pro in that post besides my response to slavesnyder.

Also just pointing out that LA is a massive market for the XB1S to not be in right now.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Fun Fact:

- Over 45 individual Xbox One HW SKUs have sold to consumers in 2016 through September, compared with over 14 Xbox 360 SKUs in the comparable 2008 period.

- For PS4, over 35 PS4 HW SKUs versus over 10 in the comparable 2009 period.

A bundle for every consumer. Well, not quite literally...
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Fun Fact:

- Over 45 individual Xbox One HW SKUs have sold to consumers in 2016 through September, compared with over 14 Xbox 360 SKUs in the comparable 2008 period.

- For PS4, over 35 PS4 HW SKUs versus over 10 in the comparable 2009 period.

A bundle for every consumer. Well, not quite literally...
Click to expand...

So I'm assuming this includes retailer specific bundles?
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
MatPiscatella said:
Fun Fact:

- Over 45 individual Xbox One HW SKUs have sold to consumers in 2016 through September, compared with over 14 Xbox 360 SKUs in the comparable 2008 period.

- For PS4, over 35 PS4 HW SKUs versus over 10 in the comparable 2009 period.

A bundle for every consumer. Well, not quite literally...
Click to expand...
I used to make fun of the huge amount of bundles, but in fact it's understandable that they fork out one after the other.
For consumers, it's a starter kit, with a perceived discount.
For HW makers, it's better than giving actual discounts. And if the game is a digital code, it gets even cheaper and gets consumers in touch with the store directly.
Also: it blocks shelf space in retail and screen space online. That's important. If it works.
Only disadvantage is that overshipped bundles with not so attractive games have to get discounted or repacked afterwards. And both is painful, the latter even more i guess.

I liked the MS idea, now also practiced by Sony: free game of choice to download. That's elegant and futureproof.

I'd never buy a console without bundled game. I'd feel robbed.
Very bullish and brave from Sony to start Pro without any bundle option.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Welfare said:
So I'm assuming this includes retailer specific bundles?
Click to expand...

No, actually.

The retail specific bundles are why I included the term "over" as those aren't counted in the totals.

There are just a whole lot of different bundles still seeing POS at retail.

slavesnyder said:
I'd never buy a console without bundled game. I'd feel robbed.
Very bullish and brave from Sony to start Pro without any bundle option.
Click to expand...

Vast majority of Consoles are now sold with bundled SW. Will be interesting to see how long the PS4 Pro is sold without.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
MatPiscatella said:
No, actually.

The retail specific bundles are why I included the term "over" as those aren't counted in the totals.

There are just a whole lot of different bundles still seeing POS at retail.
Click to expand...

Are refurbished units counted? That is a lot more bundles than I thought if not.
 
M

MatPiscatella

Member
Welfare said:
Are refurbished units counted? That is a lot more bundles than I thought if not.
Click to expand...

No, just sales of new units at retail.

I'll see if I can share the full SKU list for kicks.

Remember though that some SKUs will sell few units as they are carryover stock, a small portion moves the majority of volume (the newest and most actively promoted, for example).

Managing hardware inventory much more difficult now than before, but I think sales success reflects how well consumers respond to multiple bundle offerings.
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
MatPiscatella said:
No, just sales of new units at retail.

I'll see if I can share the full SKU list for kicks.

Remember though that some SKUs will sell few units as they are carryover stock, a small portion moves the majority of volume (the newest and most actively promoted, for example).

Managing hardware inventory much more difficult now than before, but I think sales success reflects how well consumers respond to multiple bundle offerings.
Click to expand...
Thanks for the responses. It would be fun to read over all those different SKUs.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
MatPiscatella said:
No, just sales of new units at retail.

I'll see if I can share the full SKU list for kicks.

Remember though that some SKUs will sell few units as they are carryover stock, a small portion moves the majority of volume (the newest and most actively promoted, for example).

Managing hardware inventory much more difficult now than before, but I think sales success reflects how well consumers respond to multiple bundle offerings.
Click to expand...

Welfare said:
Thanks for the responses. It would be fun to read over all those different SKUs.
Click to expand...
Absolutely. Pretty please do this if you can (and want).
 
Welfare

Welfare

Member
Primethius said:
A BF1 vs UC4 bundle at $250?

If the Pro wasn't a factor, I'd give November to XB1 based on just that.
Click to expand...

Yeah, if the Pro wasn't coming out and it was just the current bundles out now, this would be like 2014 all over again. $299 Minecraft, Gears 4, and BF1 bundles are great value and Minecraft and BF1 are going to be $249 on Black Friday.

Not even looking at PS4, I see this holiday being really good for XB1. Pro is what will push a PS4 win.
 
J

jjonez18

Member
MatPiscatella said:
No, just sales of new units at retail.

I'll see if I can share the full SKU list for kicks.

Remember though that some SKUs will sell few units as they are carryover stock, a small portion moves the majority of volume (the newest and most actively promoted, for example).

Managing hardware inventory much more difficult now than before, but I think sales success reflects how well consumers respond to multiple bundle offerings.
Click to expand...

Sounds like the 80/20 rule.
80% of the year's sales come from 20% of the product.
 
D

donny2112

Member
Prototype Viktor said:
PS4] 47000K
Click to expand...

47 million PS4s sold in October. I fear to think how many will be sold once holiday shopping hits.
Don't you usually put shipment numbers cumulative worldwide as an initial guess? 249 XB1? Wouldn't it make nearly infinite more sense to put vague guesses as a first pass instead of ones that would get excluded if missed to go back and update them?
 
S

Sterok

Member
So ever since Pokemon GO released I've been thinking, if there was ever a year that Pokemon could beat Call of Duty, this was it. Pokemon just got a massive resurgence, the 3DS's userbase is at its peak, the 3DS is cheap and on a slight upswing, there's no competition on the kids market, Sun and Moon are making some impressive improvements, pre-orders are Nintendo's best ever, etc. Everything points to a positive sign for Pokemon. Meanwhile Call of Duty is facing franchise fatigue, has the third futuristic setting in a row, is finally dropping last-gen, has the MWR controversy, and there are a million multiplayer shooters this year with two CODs, Battlefield, Titanfall, Gears, plus Overwatch and Destiny legs. But I figured that even all that, Call of Duty would win because Call of Duty always wins.

But Infinite Warfare sales are trickling in, and they're not looking particularly pretty bright now. So now I'm wondering, is there a chance? At least at retail?
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Sterok said:
So ever since Pokemon GO released I've been thinking, if there was ever a year that Pokemon could beat Call of Duty, this was it. Pokemon just got a massive resurgence, the 3DS's userbase is at its peak, the 3DS is cheap and on a slight upswing, there's no competition on the kids market, Sun and Moon are making some impressive improvements, pre-orders are Nintendo's best ever, etc. Everything points to a positive sign for Pokemon. Meanwhile Call of Duty is facing franchise fatigue, has the third futuristic setting in a row, is finally dropping last-gen, has the MWR controversy, and there are a million multiplayer shooters this year with two CODs, Battlefield, Titanfall, Gears, plus Overwatch and Destiny legs. But I figured that even all that, Call of Duty would win because Call of Duty always wins.

But Infinite Warfare sales are trickling in, and they're not looking particularly pretty bright now. So now I'm wondering, is there a chance? At least at retail?
Click to expand...

Somewhere in Italy, a banned Gaffer nods heavily.
 
P

Prototype Viktor

Member
donny2112 said:
47 million PS4s sold in October. I fear to think how many will be sold once holiday shopping hits.
Don't you usually put shipment numbers cumulative worldwide as an initial guess? 249 XB1? Wouldn't it make nearly infinite more sense to put vague guesses as a first pass instead of ones that would get excluded if missed to go back and update them?
Click to expand...
Yes I do, and I've only messed up once so I'm fine lol
 
A

Abdiel

Member
We've got all these Pro boxes here in my store warehouse... mine is ready to go... but I can't take it home until Thursday after my shift. Sigh.

Really pleased with the numbers of preorders for the store alone, and then the extra inventory Sony allocated to us. They seem pretty confident with this initial shipment. Quite a few people on my staff preordered too. Still waiting for them to make a better Slim bundle for the holidays, but this thing is going to do really well, I feel.
 
S

Sterok

Member
Abdiel said:
We've got all these Pro boxes here in my store warehouse... mine is ready to go... but I can't take it home until Thursday after my shift. Sigh.

Really pleased with the numbers of preorders for the store alone, and then the extra inventory Sony allocated to us. They seem pretty confident with this initial shipment. Quite a few people on my staff preordered too. Still waiting for them to make a better Slim bundle for the holidays, but this thing is going to do really well, I feel.
Click to expand...

How did Infinite Warfare go over? Noticeable decline?
 
P

Primethius

Banned
[XB1] 345K
[PS4] 205K
[3DS] 145K
[WIU] 25k

Should be a fairly easy victory for the XB1. If UC4 is the only bundle that Sony has for the holidays, I'm actually probably going to lean towards the XB1 taking the holidays as well despite the Pro. Feel like that's a huge mistake by Sony if it ends up being the case.
 
S

slavesnyder

Member
Primethius said:
[XB1] 345K
[PS4] 205K
[3DS] 145K
[WIU] 25k

Should be a fairly easy victory for the XB1. If UC4 is the only bundle that Sony has for the holidays, I'm actually probably going to lean towards the XB1 taking the holidays as well despite the Pro. Feel like that's a huge mistake by Sony if it ends up being the case.
Click to expand...
Why should they have partnerships without bundles?
They will come.
 
A

allan-bh

Member
Primethius said:
[XB1] 345K
[PS4] 205K
[3DS] 145K
[WIU] 25k

Should be a fairly easy victory for the XB1. If UC4 is the only bundle that Sony has for the holidays, I'm actually probably going to lean towards the XB1 taking the holidays as well despite the Pro. Feel like that's a huge mistake by Sony if it ends up being the case.
Click to expand...

They probably will launch an Infinite Warfare PS4 Slim bundle in time for BF or in december. Last year they launched a special edition Black Ops III bundle in november and in december the same bundle with the standard PS4.

It's possible that due to PS4 Pro launch there isn't a CoD bundle yet.
 
E

Elandyll

Banned
Primethius said:
[XB1] 345K
[PS4] 205K
[3DS] 145K
[WIU] 25k

Should be a fairly easy victory for the XB1. If UC4 is the only bundle that Sony has for the holidays, I'm actually probably going to lean towards the XB1 taking the holidays as well despite the Pro. Feel like that's a huge mistake by Sony if it ends up being the case.
Click to expand...
I'm a bit puzzled though.

If the S is such a huuuuge attractor, why is it borderline DOA on Amazon?
Why are 4 bundles of OG XB1 at $249 (can't get rid of stock it looks like, been like that for a month+) and a refurb og XB1 ahead of the normally much more attractive XB1S + Gears on Gamestop?

Trying to figure out what is happening here.
 
C

centmoe

Banned
Elandyll said:
I'm a bit puzzled though.

If the S is such a huuuuge attractor, why is it borderline DOA on Amazon?
Why are 4 bundles of OG XB1 at $249 (can't get rid of stock it looks like, been like that for a month+) and a refurb og XB1 ahead of the normally much more attractive XB1S + Gears on Gamestop?

Trying to figure out what is happening here.
Click to expand...
dont do this to yourself. amazon has not been represntive of npd results for the past couple of months
 
T

Trup1aya

Member
Elandyll said:
I'm a bit puzzled though.

If the S is such a huuuuge attractor, why is it borderline DOA on Amazon?
Why are 4 bundles of OG XB1 at $249 (can't get rid of stock it looks like, been like that for a month+) and a refurb og XB1 ahead of the normally much more attractive XB1S + Gears on Gamestop?

Trying to figure out what is happening here.
Click to expand...

Hasn't Amazon failed to predict the ndp leader these last few months?...

I guess people are just buying their xbox's from other places.
 
V

Vena

Member
Elandyll said:
If the S is such a huuuuge attractor, why is it borderline DOA on Amazon?
Click to expand...

Because Amazon doesn't sell the popular bundles/models of the S. This is a fairly self-explanatory question, if Product A is wanted but Company B does not sell it but instead sell the much less wanted Product C, Company B will see a lack of sales of Product C.

As it currently stands, Amazon is a piss-poor point of reference as it does not sell one of the most sold/wanted goods for one of the competitors.
 
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